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This pre-registered study examined the prevalence and correlates of sexual aggression in a sample of 530 Iranians (322 women, 208 men) with a behaviorally specific questionnaire distinguishing between different coercive strategies, victim-perpetrator relationships, and sexual acts. Significantly more women (63.0%) than men (51.0%) experienced at least one incident of sexual aggression victimization since the age of 15 years, and significantly more men (37.0%) than women (13.4%) reported at least one incident of sexual aggression perpetration. In women and men, the experience of child sexual abuse predicted sexual victimization and sexual aggression perpetration after the age of 15 years, both directly and indirectly through higher engagement in risky sexual behavior. Greater endorsement of hostile masculinity among men explained additional variance in the prediction of sexual aggression perpetration. This research is a first step towards documenting and explaining high rates of sexual aggression victimization and perpetration among Iranian women and men, providing important information for sex education as well for the prevention of sexual aggression. However, to achieve these goals, we highlight the need for systematic actions in all educational, social, and legal sectors of Iranian society.
Sanktionen sind ein wichtiges Instrument des UN-Sicherheitsrats zur Erhaltung des Weltfriedens. Viele zentrale Entscheidungen, wie etwa die Listung und Entlistung terrorverdächtiger Personen, werden fernab der Öffentlichkeit in Sanktionsausschüssen getroffen. Die Einsetzung dieser Ausschüsse hat die Entscheidungsdynamiken im Rat erheblich verändert.
The Northern Central Iranian Micro-continent (CIM) represents Neotethys-related oceanic crust remnants, emplaced due to convergence between CIM and Eurasia plates during Eocene. Mafic and ultramafic units are exposed along the northern part of the CIM in the Sabzevar area. The geology and field relation of Sabzevar ophiolite indicate northward subduction of the Sabzevar basin. The average whole rock chemistry of mafic (gabbros) and ultramafic samples (lherzolite, harzburgite and dunite) is characterized by a range of MgO of 11.16-31.88, CaO 5.22-11.53 and Al2O3 2.77-14.57, respectively. Low LREE/HREE ratio of ultramafic samples is accompanied by enrichment of large ion lithophile elements (LILE) such as Sr, Pb and K. Mafic samples show two distinct groups with low and high LREE/HREE ratios. The spider diagram of mafic samples indicates enrichment in Sr, Pb and K and depletion in REE. Petrological and geochemical evidence and field relations show that the mafic rocks formed in a supra-subduction zone setting. Petrological studies reveal the role of fractional crystallization and assimilation effect by released fluids during subduction related generation of the Sabzevar mafic rocks. We suggest that the studied mafic rocks likely represent the basement of an initial island arc, which was generated in a supra-subduction zone setting within the Neotethys branch of the Sabzevar Ocean at the north of CIM. Copper, gold and chromite mineralizations are studied in relation to island arc setting and supra-subduction environment. Similarities in lithology, ophiolite age and mineralization between Sabzevar ophiolite and Bardaskan-Torbat Heydariyeh ophiolites testify for their separation due to rotation (or faulting) of the Central Iranian Micro-continent.
One of the crucial components in seismic hazard analysis is the estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude and associated uncertainty. In the present study, the uncertainty related to the maximum expected magnitude mu is determined in terms of confidence intervals for an imposed level of confidence. Previous work by Salamat et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:763-777, 2017) shows the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible magnitude m(max) for high levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones of Iran. In this work, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude mu is calculated in a predefined finite time interval and imposed level of confidence. For this, we use a conceptual model based on a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitudes with constant b-value and calculate the posterior distribution of mu for the time interval T-f in future. We assume a stationary Poisson process in time and a Gutenberg-Richter relation for magnitudes. The upper bound of the magnitude confidence interval is calculated for different time intervals of 30, 50, and 100 years and imposed levels of confidence alpha = 0.5, 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01. The posterior distribution of waiting times T-f to the next earthquake with a given magnitude equal to 6.5, 7.0, and7.5 are calculated in each zone. In order to find the influence of declustering, we use the original and declustered version of the catalog. The earthquake catalog of the territory of Iran and surroundings are subdivided into six seismotectonic zones Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh, and Makran. We assume the maximum possible magnitude m(max) = 8.5 and calculate the upper bound of the confidence interval of mu in each zone. The results indicate that for short time intervals equal to 30 and 50 years and imposed levels of confidence 1 - alpha = 0.95 and 0.90, the probability distribution of mu is around mu = 7.16-8.23 in all seismic zones.
This paper concerns the problem of predicting the maximum expected earthquake magnitude μ in a future time interval Tf given a catalog covering a time period T in the past. Different studies show the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_{ max } for high levels of confidence (Salamat et al. 2017). Therefore, m_{ max } should be better replaced by μ (Holschneider et al. 2011). In a previous study (Salamat et al. 2018), μ is estimated for an instrumental earthquake catalog of Iran from 1900 onwards with a constant level of completeness ( {m0 = 5.5} ). In the current study, the Bayesian methodology developed by Zöller et al. (2014, 2015) is applied for the purpose of predicting μ based on the catalog consisting of both historical and instrumental parts. The catalog is first subdivided into six subcatalogs corresponding to six seismotectonic zones, and each of those zone catalogs is subsequently subdivided according to changes in completeness level and magnitude uncertainty. For this, broad and small error distributions are considered for historical and instrumental earthquakes, respectively. We assume that earthquakes follow a Poisson process in time and Gutenberg-Richter law in the magnitude domain with a priori unknown a and b values which are first estimated by Bayes' theorem and subsequently used to estimate μ. Imposing different values of m_{ max } for different seismotectonic zones namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh and Makran, the results show considerable probabilities for the occurrence of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 7.5 in short Tf , whereas for long Tf, μ is almost equal to m_{ max }
The Makran accretionary prism in SE Iran and SW Pakistan is one of the most extensive subduction accretions on Earth. It is characterized by intense folding, thrust faulting and dislocation of the Cenozoic units that consist of sedimentary, igneous and metamorphic rocks. Rock units forming the northern Makran ophiolites are amalgamated as a melange. Metamorphic rocks, including greenschist, amphibolite and blueschist, resulted from metamorphism of mafic rocks and serpentinites. In spite of the geodynamic significance of blueschist in this area, it has been rarely studied. Peak metamorphic phases of the northern Makran mafic blueschist in the Iranshahr area are glaucophane, phengite, quartz +/- omphacite+epidote. Post peak minerals are chlorite, albite and calcic amphibole. Blueschist facies metasedimentary rocks contain garnet, phengite, albite and epidote in the matrix and as inclusions in glaucophane. The calculated P-T pseudosection for a representative metabasic glaucophane schist yields peak pressure and temperature of 11.5-15kbar at 400-510 degrees C. These rocks experienced retrograde metamorphism from blueschist to greenschist facies (350-450 degrees C and 7-8kbar) during exhumation. A back arc basin was formed due to northward subduction of Neotethys under Eurasia (Lut block). Exhumation of the high-pressure metamorphic rocks in northern Makran occurred contemporarily with subduction. Several reverse faults played an important role in exhumation of the ophiolitic and HP-LT rocks. The presence of serpentinite shows the possible role of a serpentinite diapir for exhumation of the blueschist. A tectonic model is proposed here for metamorphism and exhumation of oceanic crust and accretionary sedimentary rocks of the Makran area. Vast accretion of subducted materials caused southward migration of the shore.
Antisemitism in muslim communities and muslim countries: debates and studies of a complex issue
(2015)
In this article, I discuss surveys, academic debates, and research on antisemitism among Muslims in Muslim-majority countries and in Europe today. After a review of antisemitism in both cases, different explanations for its causes are presented. Negative attitudes towards Jews in Muslim countries are the rule, not the exception. An important factor in almost all Muslim countries are anti-Zionist attitudes and agitations that are mixed with antisemitic stereotypes and conspiracy theories. In Europe, antisemitism is more prevalent among Muslims than among non-Muslims and Muslims are disproportionately often involved in antisemitic incidents.
It turns out that antisemitism among Muslims is manifested in many ways and that it has many causes. One-dimensional explanations are not sufficient. Arguments that antisemitism is primarily a result of the Middle East conflict or of discrimination/colonization seem to be outdated in view of new research. Historically, the interaction of Arab nationalism, Islamist movements, and the collaboration with the Nazis in the middle of the 20th century played a significant role in ensuring that the discriminatory treatment of Jews in Islam in the Middle Ages did not disappear in the course of establishing nation states, but was converted to a large extent into antisemitism. Today, Islamist influences and stereotypes that are passed on by media and within social circles are essential factors for the prevalence of antisemitic attitudes among Muslims.
The Mahneshan Metamorphic Complex (MMC) is one of the Precambrian terrains exposed in the northwest of Iran. The MMC underwent two main phases of deformation (D-1 and D-2) and at least two metamorphic events (M-1 and M-2). Critical metamorphic mineral assemblages in the metapelitic rocks testify to regional metamorphism under amphibolite-facies conditions. The dominant metamorphic mineral assemblage in metapelitic rocks (M-1) is muscovite, biotite I, Garnet I, staurolite, Andalusite I and sillimanite. Peak metamorphism took place at 600-620 degrees C and similar to 7 kbar, corresponding to a depth of ca. 24 km. This was followed by decompression during exhumation of the crustal rocks up to the surface. The decrease of temperature and pressure during exhumation produced retrograde metamorphic assemblages (M-2). Secondary phases such as garnet II biotite It. Andalusite II constrain the temperature and pressure of M, retrograde metamorphism to 520-560 degrees C and 2.5-3.5 kbar, respectively. The geothermal gradient obtained for the peak of metamorphism is 33 degrees C km(-1), which indicates that peak metamorphism was of Barrovian type and occurred under medium-pressure conditions. The MMC followed a 'clockwise' P T path during metamorphism, consistent with thermal relaxation following tectonic thickening. The bulk chemistry of the MMC metapelites shows that their protoliths were deposited at an active continental margin. Together with the presence of palaeo-suture zones and ophiolitic rocks around the high-grade metamorphic rocks of the MMC, these features suggest that the Iranian Precambrian basement formed by an island-arc type cratonization.
The M (w) 6.2 Baladeh earthquake occurred on 28 May 2004 in the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. This earthquake was the first strong shock in this intracontinental orogen for which digital regional broadband data are available. The Baladeh event provides a rare opportunity to study fault geometry and ongoing deformation processes using modern seismological methods. A joint inversion for hypocentres and a velocity model plus a surface-wave group dispersion curve analysis were used to obtain an adapted velocity model, customised for mid- and long-period waveform modelling. Based on the new velocity model, regional waveform data of the mainshock and larger aftershocks (M (w) a parts per thousand yen3.3) were inverted for moment tensors. For the Baladeh mainshock, this included inversion for kinematic parameters. All analysed earthquakes show dominant thrust mechanisms at depths between 14 and 26 km, with NW-SE striking fault planes. The mainshock ruptured a 28A degrees south-dipping area of 24 x 21 km along a north-easterly direction. The rupture plane of the mainshock does not coincide with the aftershock distribution, neither in map view nor with respect to depth. The considered aftershocks form two main clusters. The eastern cluster is associated with the mainshock. The western cluster does not appear to be connected with the rupture plane of the mainshock but, instead, indicates a second activated fault plane dipping at 85A degrees towards the north.
The Sabzevar ophiolites mark the Neotethys suture in east-north-central Iran. The Sabzevar metamorphic rocks, as part of the Cretaceous Sabzevar ophiolitic complex, consist of blueschist, amphibolite and greenschist. The Sabzevar blueschists contain sodic amphibole, epidote, phengite, calcite +/- A omphacite +/- A quartz. The epidote amphibolite is composed of sodic-calcic amphibole, epidote, albite, phengite, quartz +/- A omphacite, ilmenite and titanite. The greenschist contains chlorite, plagioclase and pyrite, as main minerals. Thermobarometry of a blueschist yields a pressure of 13-15.5 kbar at temperatures of 420-500 A degrees C. Peak metamorphic temperature/depth ratios were low (similar to 12 A degrees C/km), consistent with metamorphism in a subduction zone. The presence of epidote in the blueschist shows that the rocks were metamorphosed entirely within the epidote stability field. Amphibole schist samples experienced pressures of 5-7 kbar and temperatures between 450 and 550 A degrees C. The presence of chlorite, actinolite, biotite and titanite indicate greenschist facies metamorphism. Chlorite, albite and biotite replacing garnet or glaucophane suggests temperatures of > 300 A degrees C for greenschist facies. The formation of high-pressure metamorphic rocks is related to north-east-dipping subduction of the Neotethys oceanic crust and subsequent closure during lower Eocene between the Central Iranian Micro-continent and Eurasia (North Iran).
The tectonically driven growth of mountains reflects the characteristics of the underlying fault systems and the applied tectonic forces. Over time, fault networks might be relatively static, but stress conditions could change and result in variations in fault slip orientation. Such a tectonic landscape would transition from a simple to a composite state: the topography of simple landscapes is correlated with a single set of tectonic boundary conditions, while composite landscapes contain inherited topography due to earlier deformation under different boundary conditions. We use fault interaction modeling to compare vertical displacement fields with topographic metrics to differentiate the two types of landscapes. By successively rotating the axis of maximum horizontal stress, we produce a suite of vertical displacement fields for comparison with real landscapes. We apply this model to a transpressional duplex in the south central Alborz Mountains of Iran, where NW oriented compression was superseded by neotectonic NE compression. The consistency between the modeled displacement field and real landforms indicates that the duplex topography is mostly compatible with the modern boundary conditions, but might include a small remnant from the earlier deformation phase. Our approach is applicable for various tectonic settings and represents an approach to identify the changing boundary conditions that produce composite landscapes. It may be particularly useful for identifying changes that occurred in regions where river profiles may no longer record a signal of the change or where the spatial pattern of uplift is complex.
Aufgrund seines umstrittenen Atomprogramms ist der Iran ein Dauerbrenner in den Medien. Doch nicht nur deshalb sollte das Land Beachtung finden. Ahmad Naderi gewährt uns einen Blick auf die Geopolitik des Iran, der besonders für die in vielen arabischen Staaten unterdrückten Schiiten Orientierungspunkt sein will. Doch strebt das Land die Hegemonie in der Region an? Johannes Reissner (1949-2009) analysiert das Selbstverständnis des Iran und seine Verhaltensmuster. Sollte der Westen seine Politik überdenken?
Es brodelt in Iran, und das gewaltig! Doch nicht die Straße ist der Ort des Geschehens. Im Schatten der Berichterstattung über die arabischen Rebellionen vom Maghreb bis zum Golf wütet in der Islamischen Republik ein Kampf der Eliten. Diese haben sich im Zuge der grünen Bewegung Teile ihrer Körperschaft entledigt. Grün ist verwelkt; heute tobt ein neuer Machtkampf. Die neue Herausforderung kommt von unerwarteter Seite: aus den innersten Kreisen des Systems selbst. Unliebsam sind nunmehr alte Pfeiler des Regimes: Rafsanjani, Mashāi, aber allen voran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad!
Die Frage nach einer veränderten Strategie des Westens im Atomkonflikt mit dem Iran ist wieder virulent. Bereits auf seiner ersten Pressekonferenz hat der als gemäßigt geltende neue iranische Präsident Hassan Ruhani mehr Transparenz über das Atomprogramm seines Landes in Aussicht gestellt. Ob sich damit ein Fenster der Möglichkeiten öffnet, den Konflikt doch noch einvernehmlich und vor allem friedlich zu lösen, muss sich erweisen.
Iranische Präsidentschaftswahlen sind immer für eine Überraschung gut. Noch eine Woche vor der Wahl dürften die wenigsten mit einem Erdrutschsieg Hassan Rouhanis gerechnet haben. Der neue Mann ist dabei ein Altbekannter. Zahlreiche Posten hat er in der Islamischen Republik bereits bekleidet und sich als Chefunterhändler auch im Ausland einen Namen gemacht. Welche Erwartungen werden an ihn gerichtet und welche Herausforderungen gilt es nun zu meistern?
Das Paper untersucht die geopolitische Konfrontation zwischen Iran und den USA sowie deren Auswirkung auf eine Veränderung der bestehenden Weltordnung. Es wird deutlich, dass die US-amerikanische Sanktionspolitik nicht nur auf das Nuklearprogramm abzielt, sondern grundsätzlich versucht, die Wirtschaftskraft der unabhängig von den Interessen der USA agierenden Regionalmacht zu brechen. Doch die Sanktionspolitik konnte weder eine Lösung des Nukleardossiers herbeiführen noch die Wirtschaftskraft Irans eindämmen. Es ist Zeit für eine fundamentale Kursänderung.
Krieg in Sicht?
(2012)
Säbelrasseln und Bombendrohungen am Persischen Golf. Israelische Politiker sprechen sich für Angriffe auf iranische Nuklearanlagen aus, bevor es zu "spät" sei. US-Verteidigungsminister Panetta hält einen Angriff Israels auf den Iran im Frühling für wahrscheinlich, während sein Präsident abwiegelt: Israel habe noch keine Entscheidung getroffen, man müsse den Sanktionen mehr Zeit geben. Mittlerweile werden aber die Instrumente scharf gemacht. Die 5. Flotte überwacht den Golf; in der Region sind etwa 40.000 US-Soldaten stationiert. Der Iran setzt auf Seemanöver.
The northward movement and collision of the Arabian plate with Eurasia generates compressive stresses and resulting shortening in Iran. Within the Alborz Mountains, North Iran, a complex and not well understood system of strike-slip and thrust faults accomodates a fundamental part of the NNE-SSW oriented shortening. On 28th of May 2004 the Mw 6.3 Baladeh earthquake hit the north-central Alborz Mountains. It is one of the rare and large events in this region in modern time and thus a seldom chance to study earthquake mechanisms and the local ongoing deformation processes. It also demonstrated the high vulnerability of this densily populated region.
Im Zentrum steht die Genese einer sich im 20. Jahrhundert zunehmend ideologisierenden Schia, deren wachsende diskursive Macht sich mit der Iranischen Revolution von 1979 durch die Schaffung realpolitischer Strukturen in Form der velayāt-e faqih niederzuschlagen vermag. Untersucht wird, unter welchen Bedingungen der gesellschaftspolitische Entwurf des schiitischen Klerus sich auch im Hinblick auf existierende nicht-religiöse Gegendiskurse seiner Zeit – etwa aus der staatlichen Bürokratie, Intellektuellenzirkeln oder aus linken und nationalen Bewegungen – wandelte. Wie begegnete der Klerus den drängenden gesellschaftlichen Fragen der Moderne und wie wird der politische Diskurs heute geführt?
The seismically active Alborz mountains of northern Iran are an integral part of the Arabia-Eurasia collision. Linked strike-slip and thrust/reverse-fault systems in this mountain belt are characterized by slow loading rates, and large earthquakes are highly disparate in space and time. Similar to other intracontinental deformation zones such a pattern of tectonic activity is still insufficiently understood, because recurrence intervals between seismic events may be on the order of thousands of years, and are thus beyond the resolution of short term measurements based on GPS or instrumentally recorded seismicity. This study bridges the gap of deformation processes on different time scales. In particular, my investigation focuses on deformation on the Quaternary time scale, beyond present-day deformation rates, and it uses present-day and paleotectonic characteristics to model fault behavior. The study includes data based on structural and geomorphic mapping, faultkinematic analysis, DEM-based morphometry, and numerical fault-interaction modeling. In order to better understand the long- to short term behavior of such complex fault systems, I used geomorphic surfaces as strain markers and dated fluvial and alluvial surfaces using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCN, 10Be, 26Al, 36Cl) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). My investigation focuses on the seismically active Mosha-Fasham fault (MFF) and the seismically virtually inactive North Tehran Thrust (NTT), adjacent to the Tehran metropolitan area. Fault-kinematic data reveal an early mechanical linkage of the NTT and MFF during an earlier dextral transpressional stage, when the shortening direction was oriented northwest. This regime was superseded by Pliocene to Recent NE-oriented shortening, which caused thrusting and sinistral strike-slip faulting. In the course of this kinematic changeover, the NTT and MFF were reactivated and incorporated into a nascent transpressional duplex, which has significantly affected landscape evolution in this part of the range. Two of three distinctive features which characterize topography and relief in the study area can be directly related to their location inside the duplex array and are thus linked to interaction between eastern MFF and NTT, and between western MFF and Taleghan fault, respectively. To account for inferred inherited topography from the previous dextral-transpression regime, a new concept of tectonic landscape characterization has been used. Accordingly, I define simple landscapes as those environments, which have developed during the influence of a sustained tectonic regime. In contrast, composite landscapes contain topographic elements inherited from previous tectonic conditions that are inconsistent with the regional present-day stress field and kinematic style. Using numerical fault-interaction modeling with different tectonic boundary conditions, I calculated synoptic snapshots of artificial topography to compare it with the real topographic metrics. However, in the Alborz mountains, E-W faults are favorably oriented to accommodate the entire range of NW- to NE-directed compression. These faults show the highest total displacement which might indicate sustained faulting under changing boundary conditions. In contrast to the fault system within and at the flanks of the Alborz mountains, Quaternary deformation in the adjacent Tehran plain is characterized by oblique motion and thrust and strike-slip fault systems. In this morphotectonic province fault-propagation folding along major faults, limited strike-slip motion, and en-échelon arrays of second-order upper plate thrusts are typical. While the Tehran plain is characterized by young deformation phenomena, the majority of faulting took place in the early stages of the Quaternary and during late Pliocene time. TCN-dating, which was performed for the first time on geomorphic surfaces in the Tehran plain, revealed that the oldest two phases of alluviation (units A and B) must be older than late Pleistocene. While urban development in Tehran increasingly covers and obliterates the active fault traces, the present-day kinematic style, the vestiges of formerly undeformed Quaternary landforms, and paleo earthquake indicators from the last millennia attest to the threat that these faults and their related structures pose for the megacity.