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OBJECTIVE: Higher plasma vitamin C levels are associated with lower type 2 diabetes risk, but whether this association is causal is uncertain. To investigate this, we studied the association of genetically predicted plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted genome-wide association studies of plasma vitamin C among 52,018 individuals of European ancestry to discover novel genetic variants. We performed Mendelian randomization analyses to estimate the association of genetically predicted differences in plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes in up to 80,983 case participants and 842,909 noncase participants. We compared this estimate with the observational association between plasma vitamin C and incident type 2 diabetes, including 8,133 case participants and 11,073 noncase participants.
RESULTS: We identified 11 genomic regions associated with plasma vitamin C (P < 5 x 10(-8)), with the strongest signal at SLC23A1, and 10 novel genetic loci including SLC23A3, CHPT1, BCAS3, SNRPF, RER1, MAF, GSTA5, RGS14, AKT1, and FADS1. Plasma vitamin C was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio per SD 0.88; 95% CI 0.82, 0.94), but there was no association between genetically predicted plasma vitamin C (excluding FADS1 variant due to its apparent pleiotropic effect) and type 2 diabetes (1.03; 95% CI 0.96, 1.10).
CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate discordance between biochemically measured and genetically predicted plasma vitamin C levels in the association with type 2 diabetes among European populations. The null Mendelian randomization findings provide no strong evidence to suggest the use of vitamin C supplementation for type 2 diabetes prevention.
Insulin-Like Growth Factor Binding Protein 2 (IGFBP-2) and the Risk of Developing Type 2 Diabetes
(2019)
Recent studies suggest that insulin-like growth factor binding protein 2 (IGFBP-2) may protect against type 2 diabetes, but population-based human studies are scarce. We aimed to investigate the prospective association of circulating IGFBP-2 concentrations and of differential methylation in the IGFBP-2 gene with type 2 diabetes risk.
Aims/hypothesis This study aimed to evaluate associations of height as well as components of height (sitting height and leg length) with risk of type 2 diabetes and to explore to what extent associations are explainable by liver fat and cardiometabolic risk markers. Methods A case-cohort study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study comprising 26,437 participants who provided blood samples was designed. We randomly selected a subcohort of 2500 individuals (2029 diabetes-free at baseline and with anamnestic, anthropometrical and metabolic data for analysis). Of the 820 incident diabetes cases identified in the full cohort during 7 years of follow-up, 698 remained for analyses after similar exclusions. Results After adjustment for age, potential lifestyle confounders, education and waist circumference, greater height was related to lower diabetes risk (HR per 10 cm, men 0.59 [95% CI 0.47, 0.75] and women 0.67 [0.51, 0.88], respectively). Leg length was related to lower risk among men and women, but only among men if adjusted for total height. Adjustment for liver fat and triacylglycerols, adiponectin and C-reactive protein substantially attenuated associations between height and diabetes risk, particularly among women. Conclusions/interpretation We observed inverse associations between height and risk of type 2 diabetes, which was largely related to leg length among men. The inverse associations may be partly driven by lower liver fat content and a more favourable cardiometabolic profile.
Background: Epidemiological studies suggest that an increased red meat intake is associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, whereas an increased fiber intake is associated with a lower risk. Objectives: We conducted an intervention study to investigate the effects of these nutritional factors on glucose and lipid metabolism, body-fat distribution, and liver fat content in subjects at increased risk of type 2 diabetes. Methods: This prospective, randomized, and controlled dietary intervention study was performed over 6 mo. All groups decreased their daily caloric intake by 400 kcal. The "control" group (N = 40) only had this requirement. The "no red meat" group (N = 48) in addition aimed to avoid the intake of red meat, and the "fiber" group (N = 44) increased intake of fibers to 40 g/d. Anthropometric parameters and frequently sampled oral glucose tolerance tests were performed before and after intervention. Body-fat mass and distribution, liver fat, and liver iron content were assessed by MRI and single voxel proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Results: Participants in all groups lost weight (mean 3.3 +/- 0.5 kg, P < 0.0001). Glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity improved (P < 0.001), and body and visceral fat mass decreased in all groups (P < 0.001). These changes did not differ between groups. Liver fat content decreased significantly (P < 0.001) with no differences between the groups. The decrease in liver fat correlated with the decrease in ferritin during intervention (r(2) = 0.08, P = 0.0021). This association was confirmed in an independent lifestyle intervention study (Tuebingen Lifestyle Intervention Program, N = 229, P = 0.0084). Conclusions: Our data indicate that caloric restriction leads to a marked improvement in glucose metabolism and body-fat composition, including liver-fat content. The marked reduction in liver fat might be mediated via changes in ferritin levels. In the context of caloric restriction, there seems to be no additional beneficial impact of reduced red meat intake and increased fiber intake on the improvement in cardiometabolic risk parameters. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03231839.
Odd-chain fatty acids (OCFA) are inversely associated with type-2-diabetes in epidemiological studies. They are considered as a biomarker for dairy intake because fermentation in ruminants yields high amounts of propionate, which is used as the primer for lipogenesis. Recently, we demonstrated endogenous OCFA synthesis from propionate in humans and mice, but how this is affected by microbial colonization is still unexplored. Here, we investigated the effect of increasing microbiota complexity on hepatic lipid metabolism and OCFA levels in different dietary settings. Germ-free (GF), gnotobiotic (SIH, simplified human microbiota) or conventional (CONV) C3H/HeOuJ-mice were fed a CHOW or high-fat diet with inulin (HFI) to induce microbial fermentation. We found that hepatic lipogenesis was increased with increasing microbiota complexity, independently of diet. In contrast, OCFA formation was affected by diet as well as microbiota. On CHOW, hepatic OCFA and intestinal gluconeogenesis decreased with increasing microbiota complexity (GF > SIH > CONV), while cecal propionate showed a negative correlation with hepatic OCFA. On HFI, OCFA levels were highest in SIH and positively correlated with cecal propionate. The propionate content in the CHOW diet was 10 times higher than that of HFI. We conclude that bacterial propionate production affects hepatic OCFA formation, unless this effect is masked by dietary propionate intake.
Purpose UK guidelines recommend dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) should not exceed 10% total energy (%TE) for cardiovascular disease prevention, with benefits observed when SFAs are replaced with unsaturated fatty acids (UFAs). This study aimed to assess the efficacy of a dietary exchange model using commercially available foods to replace SFAs with UFAs. Methods Healthy men (n = 109, age 48, SD 11 year) recruited to the Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Saturated fat Cholesterol Intervention-1 (RISSCI-1) study (ClinicalTrials.Gov n degrees NCT03270527) followed two sequential 4-week isoenergetic moderate-fat (34%TE) diets: high-SFA (18%TE SFAs, 16%TE UFAs) and low-SFA (10%TE SFAs, 24%TE UFAs). Dietary intakes were assessed using 4-day weighed diet diaries. Nutrient intakes were analysed using paired t-tests, fasting plasma phospholipid fatty acid (PL-FA) profiles and dietary patterns were analysed using orthogonal partial least square discriminant analyses. Results Participants exchanged 10.2%TE (SD 4.1) SFAs for 9.7%TE (SD 3.9) UFAs between the high and low-SFA diets, reaching target intakes with minimal effect on other nutrients or energy intakes. Analyses of dietary patterns confirmed successful incorporation of recommended foods from commercially available sources (e.g. dairy products, snacks, oils, and fats), without affecting participants' overall dietary intakes. Analyses of plasma PL-FAs indicated good compliance to the dietary intervention and foods of varying SFA content. Conclusions RISSCI-1 dietary exchange model successfully replaced dietary SFAs with UFAs in free-living healthy men using commercially available foods, and without altering their dietary patterns. Further intervention studies are required to confirm utility and feasibility of such food-based dietary fat replacement models at a population level.
Aim
There is little evidence of the impact of diabetes risk scores on individual diabetes risk factors, motivation for behaviour changes and mental health. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of applying a noninvasive diabetes risk score in primary care as component of routine health checks on physical activity and secondary outcomes.
Methods
Cluster randomised trial, in which primary care physicians (PCPs), randomised (1:1) by minimisation, enrolled participants with statutory health insurance without known diabetes, >= 35 years of age with a body mass index >= 27.0 kg/m(2). The German Diabetes Risk Score was applied as add-on to the standard routine health check, conducted in the controls. Primary outcome was the difference in participants' physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaire) after 12 months. Secondary outcomes included body mass index, perceived health, anxiety, depression, and motivation for lifestyle change. Analysis was by intention-to-treat principle using mixed models.
Results
36 PCPs were randomised; remaining 30 PCPs (intervention: n = 16; control: n = 14) recruited 315 participants (intervention: n = 153; controls: n = 162). A slight increase in physical activity was observed in the intervention group with an adjusted mean change of 388 (95% confidence interval: - 235; 1011) metabolic equivalents minutes per week. There were no relevant changes in secondary outcomes.
Conclusions
The application of a noninvasive diabetes risk score alone is not effective in promoting physical activity in primary care. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03234322, registration date: July 31, 2017).
Background: Most studies on food choice have been focussing on the individual level but familial aspects may also play an important role. This paper reports of a novel study that will focus on the familial aspects of the formation of food choice among men and women aged 50-70 years by recruiting spouses and siblings (NutriAct Family Study; NFS). Discussion: Until August 4th 2017, 4783 EPIC-Participants were contacted by mail of which 446 persons recruited 2 to 5 family members (including themselves) resulting in 1032 participants, of whom 82% had started answering or already completed the questionnaires. Of the 4337 remaining EPIC-participants who had been contacted, 1040 (24%) did not respond at all, and 3297 (76%) responded but declined, in 51% of the cases because of the request to recruit at least 2 family members in the respective age range. The developed recruitment procedures and web-based methods of data collection are capable to generate the required study population including the data on individual and inter-personal determinants which will be linkable to food choice. The information on familial links among the study participants will show the role of familial traits in midlife for the adoption of food choices supporting healthy aging.
Cardiovascular complications are commonly associated with obesity. However, a subgroup of obese individuals may not be at an increased risk for cardiovascular complications; these individuals are said to have metabolically healthy obesity (MHO). In contrast, metabolically unhealthy individuals are at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), irrespective of BMI; thus, this group can include individuals within the normal weight category (BMI 18.5-24.9kg/m(2)). This review provides a summary of prospective studies on MHO and metabolically unhealthy normal-weight (MUHNW) phenotypes. Notably, there is ongoing dispute surrounding the concept of MHO, including the lack of a uniform definition and the potentially transient nature of metabolic health status. This review highlights the relevance of alternative measures of body fatness, specifically measures of fat distribution, for determining MHO and MUHNW. It also highlights alternative approaches of risk stratification, which account for the continuum of risk in relation to CVD, which is observable for most risk factors. Moreover, studies evaluating the transition from metabolically healthy to unhealthy phenotypes and potential determinants for such conversions are discussed. Finally, the review proposes several strategies for the use of epidemiological research to further inform the current debate on metabolic health and its determination across different stages of body fatness.
Dietary linoleic acid: will modifying dietary fat quality reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes?
(2021)
Individuals with diabetes face higher risks for macro- and microvascular complications than their non-diabetic counterparts. The concept of precision medicine in diabetes aims to optimise treatment decisions for individual patients to reduce the risk of major diabetic complications, including cardiovascular outcomes, retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy and overall mortality. In this context, prognostic models can be used to estimate an individual's risk for relevant complications based on individual risk profiles. This review aims to place the concept of prediction modelling into the context of precision prognostics. As opposed to identification of diabetes subsets, the development of prediction models, including the selection of predictors based on their longitudinal association with the outcome of interest and their discriminatory ability, allows estimation of an individual's absolute risk of complications. As a consequence, such models provide information about potential patient subgroups and their treatment needs. This review provides insight into the methodological issues specifically related to the development and validation of prediction models for diabetes complications. We summarise existing prediction models for macro- and microvascular complications, commonly included predictors, and examples of available validation studies. The review also discusses the potential of non-classical risk markers and omics-based predictors. Finally, it gives insight into the requirements and challenges related to the clinical applications and implementation of developed predictions models to optimise medical decision making.
Diabetesrisikoscores
(2020)
Risikoscores werden zur Identifizierung von Hochrisikopersonen für Typ-2-Diabetes (T2DM) eingesetzt, die von Präventionsmaßnahmen profitieren. Der DIfE – DEUTSCHER DIABETES-RISIKO-TEST® (DRT [DIfE: Deutsches Institut für Ernährungsforschung Potsdam‐Rehbrücke]) wird genutzt, um das absolute 5‑Jahres-Risiko für T2DM zu bestimmen. Da die Berechnung auf nichtklinischen Informationen basiert, kann der Test unabhängig von einem Arztbesuch genutzt werden. Als Grundlage für die Entwicklung von Risikoscores dienen Daten aus prospektiven populationsbezogenen Langzeitstudien. Die sehr gute Vorhersagegüte eines Scores sollte, wie im Fall des DRT, in unabhängigen Populationen bestätigt werden. Neben dem Einsatz durch Ärzte/‑innen und zur individuellen Selbstanamnese können nichtklinische Risikoscores im Kontext breiterer, bevölkerungsbezogener Präventionskonzepte und Informationsangebote zur Senkung des Erkrankungsrisikos Anwendung finden. Durch Krankenkassen abrechenbare Präventionsleistungen sollen im Sinne des deutschen Präventionsgesetzes die Integration von gesundheitsförderndem Verhalten in den Alltag unterstützen. Obwohl Übergewicht und Ernährung relevante Lebensstilrisikofaktoren für T2DM sind, beträgt der Anteil der in Anspruch genommenen Präventionskurse in diesem Bereich nur 3 % der abgerechneten Kurse. Entsprechende Empfehlungen in ärztlichen Untersuchungen könnten eine umfangreichere Inanspruchnahme fördern. Die Verwendung von Risikoscores als Grundlage für systematische und gezielte Handlungsempfehlungen hinsichtlich einer Verhaltensprävention könnte dies, wie es bereits in Richtlinien der kardiovaskulären Prävention etabliert ist, darüber hinaus unterstützen. Auch die Weiterentwicklung der Implementationsforschung ist für den effizienten Einsatz von Risikoscores von Bedeutung.
Aim: Assessment of the feasibility and reliability of immune-inflammatory biomarker measurements. Methods: The following biomarkers were assessed in 207 predominantly healthy participants at baseline and after 4 months: MMF, TGF-beta, suPAR and clusterin. Results: Intraclass correlation coefficients (95% CIs) ranged from good for TGF-beta (0.75 [95% CI: 0.33-0.90]) to excellent for MMF (0.81 [95% CI: 0.64-0.90]), clusterin (0.83 [95% CI: 0.78-0.87]) and suPAR (0.91 [95% CI: 0.88-0.93]). Measurement of TGF-beta was challenged by the large number of values below the detection limit. Conclusion: Single measurements of suPAR, clusterin and MMF could serve as feasible and reliable biomarkers of immune-inflammatory pathways in biomedical research.
To better understand the role of individual and lifestyle factors in human disease, an exposome-wide association study was performed to investigate within a single-study anthropometry measures and lifestyle factors previously associated with B-cell lymphoma (BCL). Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition study, 2402 incident BCL cases were diagnosed from 475 426 participants that were followed-up on average 14 years. Standard and penalized Cox regression models as well as principal component analysis (PCA) were used to evaluate 84 exposures in relation to BCL risk. Standard and penalized Cox regression models showed a positive association between anthropometric measures and BCL and multiple myeloma/plasma cell neoplasm (MM). The penalized Cox models additionally showed the association between several exposures from categories of physical activity, smoking status, medical history, socioeconomic position, diet and BCL and/or the subtypes. PCAs confirmed the individual associations but also showed additional observations. The PC5 including anthropometry, was positively associated with BCL, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and MM. There was a significant positive association between consumption of sugar and confectionary (PC11) and follicular lymphoma risk, and an inverse association between fish and shellfish and Vitamin D (PC15) and DLBCL risk. The PC1 including features of the Mediterranean diet and diet with lower inflammatory score showed an inverse association with BCL risk, while the PC7, including dairy, was positively associated with BCL and DLBCL risk. Physical activity (PC10) was positively associated with DLBCL risk among women. This study provided informative insights on the etiology of BCL.
To better understand the role of individual and lifestyle factors in human disease, an exposome-wide association study was performed to investigate within a single-study anthropometry measures and lifestyle factors previously associated with B-cell lymphoma (BCL). Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition study, 2402 incident BCL cases were diagnosed from 475 426 participants that were followed-up on average 14 years. Standard and penalized Cox regression models as well as principal component analysis (PCA) were used to evaluate 84 exposures in relation to BCL risk. Standard and penalized Cox regression models showed a positive association between anthropometric measures and BCL and multiple myeloma/plasma cell neoplasm (MM). The penalized Cox models additionally showed the association between several exposures from categories of physical activity, smoking status, medical history, socioeconomic position, diet and BCL and/or the subtypes. PCAs confirmed the individual associations but also showed additional observations. The PC5 including anthropometry, was positively associated with BCL, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and MM. There was a significant positive association between consumption of sugar and confectionary (PC11) and follicular lymphoma risk, and an inverse association between fish and shellfish and Vitamin D (PC15) and DLBCL risk. The PC1 including features of the Mediterranean diet and diet with lower inflammatory score showed an inverse association with BCL risk, while the PC7, including dairy, was positively associated with BCL and DLBCL risk. Physical activity (PC10) was positively associated with DLBCL risk among women. This study provided informative insights on the etiology of BCL.
Metabolic signatures of healthy lifestyle patterns and colorectal cancer risk in a European cohort
(2020)
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colorectal cancer risk can be lowered by adherence to the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) guidelines. We derived metabolic signatures of adherence to these guidelines and tested their associations with colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort.
METHODS: Scores reflecting adherence to the WCRF/AICR recommendations (scale, 1-5) were calculated from participant data on weight maintenance, physical activity, diet, and alcohol among a discovery set of 5738 cancer-free European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition participants with metabolomics data. Partial least-squares regression was used to derive fatty acid and endogenous metabolite signatures of the WCRF/AICR score in this group. In an independent set of 1608 colorectal cancer cases and matched controls, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were calculated for colorectal cancer risk per unit increase in WCRF/AICR score and per the corresponding change in metabolic signatures using multivariable conditional logistic regression.
RESULTS: Higher WCRF/AICR scores were characterized by metabolic signatures of increased odd-chain fatty acids, serine, glycine, and specific phosphatidylcholines. Signatures were inversely associated more strongly with colorectal cancer risk (fatty acids: OR, 0.51 per unit increase; 95% CI, 0.29-0.90; endogenous metabolites: OR, 0.62 per unit change; 95% CI, 0.50-0.78) than the WCRF/AICR score (OR, 0.93 per unit change; 95% CI, 0.86-1.00) overall. Signature associations were stronger in male compared with female participants.
CONCLUSIONS: Metabolite profiles reflecting adherence to WCRF/AICR guidelines and additional lifestyle or biological risk factors were associated with colorectal cancer. Measuring a specific panel of metabolites representative of a healthy or unhealthy lifestyle may identify strata of the population at higher risk of colorectal cancer.
Background:
Epidemiological evidence indicates that diets rich in plant foods are associated with a lower risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but there is sparse information on fruit and vegetable subtypes and sources of dietary fibre. This study examined the associations of major plant foods, their subtypes and dietary fibre with risk of IHD in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).
Methods:
We conducted a prospective analysis of 490 311 men and women without a history of myocardial infarction or stroke at recruitment (12.6 years of follow-up, n cases = 8504), in 10 European countries. Dietary intake was assessed using validated questionnaires, calibrated with 24-h recalls. Multivariable Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of IHD.
Results:
There was a lower risk of IHD with a higher intake of fruit and vegetables combined [HR per 200 g/day higher intake 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90-0.99, P-trend = 0.009], and with total fruits (per 100 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.021). There was no evidence for a reduced risk for fruit subtypes, except for bananas. Risk was lower with higher intakes of nuts and seeds (per 10 g/day 0.90, 0.82-0.98, Ptrend = 0.020), total fibre (per 10 g/day 0.91, 0.85-0.98, P-trend = 0.015), fruit and vegetable fibre (per 4 g/day 0.95, 0.91-0.99, P-trend = 0.022) and fruit fibre (per 2 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.045). No associations were observed between vegetables, vegetables subtypes, legumes, cereals and IHD risk.
Conclusions:
In this large prospective study, we found some small inverse associations between plant foods and IHD risk, with fruit and vegetables combined being the most strongly inversely associated with risk. Whether these small associations are causal remains unclear.
Background:
Epidemiological evidence indicates that diets rich in plant foods are associated with a lower risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but there is sparse information on fruit and vegetable subtypes and sources of dietary fibre. This study examined the associations of major plant foods, their subtypes and dietary fibre with risk of IHD in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).
Methods:
We conducted a prospective analysis of 490 311 men and women without a history of myocardial infarction or stroke at recruitment (12.6 years of follow-up, n cases = 8504), in 10 European countries. Dietary intake was assessed using validated questionnaires, calibrated with 24-h recalls. Multivariable Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of IHD.
Results:
There was a lower risk of IHD with a higher intake of fruit and vegetables combined [HR per 200 g/day higher intake 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90-0.99, P-trend = 0.009], and with total fruits (per 100 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.021). There was no evidence for a reduced risk for fruit subtypes, except for bananas. Risk was lower with higher intakes of nuts and seeds (per 10 g/day 0.90, 0.82-0.98, Ptrend = 0.020), total fibre (per 10 g/day 0.91, 0.85-0.98, P-trend = 0.015), fruit and vegetable fibre (per 4 g/day 0.95, 0.91-0.99, P-trend = 0.022) and fruit fibre (per 2 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.045). No associations were observed between vegetables, vegetables subtypes, legumes, cereals and IHD risk.
Conclusions:
In this large prospective study, we found some small inverse associations between plant foods and IHD risk, with fruit and vegetables combined being the most strongly inversely associated with risk. Whether these small associations are causal remains unclear.
Aims:
Although risk scores to predict type 2 diabetes exist, cost-effectiveness of risk thresholds to target prevention interventions are unknown. We applied cost-effectiveness analysis to identify optimal thresholds of predicted risk to target a low-cost community-based intervention in the USA.
Methods:
We used a validated Markov-based type 2 diabetes simulation model to evaluate the lifetime cost-effectiveness of alternative thresholds of diabetes risk. Population characteristics for the model were obtained from NHANES 2001-2004 and incidence rates and performance of two noninvasive diabetes risk scores (German diabetes risk score, GDRS, and ARIC 2009 score) were determined in the ARIC and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for increasing risk score thresholds. Two scenarios were assumed: 1-stage (risk score only) and 2-stage (risk score plus fasting plasma glucose (FPG) test (threshold 100 mg/dl) in the high-risk group).
Results:
In ARIC and CHS combined, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the GDRS and the ARIC 2009 score were 0.691 (0.677-0.704) and 0.720 (0.707-0.732), respectively. The optimal threshold of predicted diabetes risk (ICER < $50,000/QALY gained in case of intervention in those above the threshold) was 7% for the GDRS and 9% for the ARIC 2009 score. In the 2-stage scenario, ICERs for all cutoffs >= 5% were below $50,000/QALY gained.
Conclusions:
Intervening in those with >= 7% diabetes risk based on the GDRS or >= 9% on the ARIC 2009 score would be cost-effective. A risk score threshold >= 5% together with elevated FPG would also allow targeting interventions cost-effectively.