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2. We present a hierarchical model that integrates observations from multiple sources to estimate spatio-temporal abundance trends. The model links annual population densities on a spatial grid to both long-term count data and to opportunistic occurrence records from a citizen science programme. Specific observation models for both data types explicitly account for differences in data structure and quality.
3. We test this novel method in a virtual study with simulated data and apply it to the estimation of abundance dynamics across the range of a butterfly species (Pyronia tithonus) in Great Britain between 1985 and 2004. The application to simulated and real data demonstrates how the hierarchical model structure accommodates various sources of uncertainty which occur at different stages of the link between observational data and the modelled abundance, thereby it accounts for these uncertainties in the inference of abundance variations.
4. We show that by using hierarchical observation models that integrate different types of commonly available data sources, we can improve the estimates of variation in species abundances across space and time. This will improve our ability to detect regional trends and can also enhance the empirical basis for understanding range dynamics.
Phylogeography of the Small Indian Civet and Origin of Introductions to Western Indian Ocean Islands
(2016)
The biogeographic dynamics affecting the Indian subcontinent, East and Southeast Asia during the Plio-Pleistocene has generated complex biodiversity patterns. We assessed the molecular biogeography of the small Indian civet (Viverricula indica) through mitogenome and cytochrome b + control region sequencing of 89 historical and modern samples to (1) establish a time-calibrated phylogeography across the species’ native range and (2) test introduction scenarios to western Indian Ocean islands. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses identified 3 geographic lineages (East Asia, sister-group to Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent + northern Indochina) diverging 3.2–2.3 million years ago (Mya), with no clear signature of past demographic expansion. Within Southeast Asia, Balinese populations separated from the rest 2.6–1.3 Mya. Western Indian Ocean populations were assigned to the Indian subcontinent + northern Indochina lineage and had the lowest mitochondrial diversity. Approximate Bayesian computation did not distinguish between single versus multiple introduction scenarios. The early diversification of the small Indian civet was likely shaped by humid periods in the Late Pliocene–Early Pleistocene that created evergreen rainforest barriers, generating areas of intra-specific endemism in the Indian subcontinent, East, and Southeast Asia. Later, Pleistocene dispersals through drier conditions in South and Southeast Asia were likely, giving rise to the species’ current natural distribution. Our molecular data supported the delineation of only 4 subspecies in V. indica, including an endemic Balinese lineage. Our study also highlighted the influence of prefirst millennium AD introductions to western Indian Ocean islands, with Indian and/or Arab traders probably introducing the species for its civet oil.
Evolutionary history and conservation significance of the Javan leopard Panthera pardus melas
(2016)
The leopard Panthera pardus is widely distributed across Africa and Asia; however, there is a gap in its natural distribution in Southeast Asia, where it occurs on the mainland and on Java but not on the interjacent island of Sumatra. Several scenarios have been proposed to explain this distribution gap. Here, we complemented an existing dataset of 68 leopard mtDNA sequences from Africa and Asia with mtDNA sequences (NADH5+ ctrl, 724bp) from 19 Javan leopards, and hindcasted leopard distribution to the Pleistocene to gain further insights into the evolutionary history of the Javan leopard. Our data confirmed that Javan leopards are evolutionarily distinct from other Asian leopards, and that they have been present on Java since the Middle Pleistocene. Species distribution projections suggest that Java was likely colonized via a Malaya-Java land bridge that by-passed Sumatra, as suitable conditions for leopards during Pleistocene glacial periods were restricted to northern and western Sumatra. As fossil evidence supports the presence of leopards on Sumatra at the beginning of the Late Pleistocene, our projections are consistent with a scenario involving the extinction of leopards on Sumatra as a consequence of the Toba super volcanic eruption (similar to 74kya). The impact of this eruption was minor on Java, suggesting that leopards managed to survive here. Currently, only a few hundred leopards still live in the wild and only about 50 are managed in captivity. Therefore, this unique and distinctive subspecies requires urgent, concerted conservation efforts, integrating insitu and ex situ conservation management activities in a One Plan Approach to species conservation management.
Background: The Visayan Tarictic Hornbill (Penelopides panini) and the Walden's Hornbill (Aceros waldeni) are two threatened hornbill species endemic to the western islands of the Visayas that constitute - between Luzon and Mindanao - the central island group of the Philippine archipelago. In order to evaluate their genetic diversity and to support efforts towards their conservation, we analyzed genetic variation in similar to 600 base pairs (bp) of the mitochondrial control region I and at 12-19 nuclear microsatellite loci. The sampling covered extant populations, still occurring only on two islands (P. panini: Panay and Negros, A. waldeni: only Panay), and it was augmented with museum specimens of extinct populations from neighboring islands. For comparison, their less endangered (= more abundant) sister taxa, the Luzon Tarictic Hornbill (P. manillae) from the Luzon and Polillo Islands and the Writhed Hornbill (A. leucocephalus) from Mindanao Island, were also included in the study. We reconstructed the population history of the two Penelopides species and assessed the genetic population structure of the remaining wild populations in all four species.
Results: Mitochondrial and nuclear data concordantly show a clear genetic separation according to the island of origin in both Penelopides species, but also unravel sporadic over-water movements between islands. We found evidence that deforestation in the last century influenced these migratory events. Both classes of markers and the comparison to museum specimens reveal a genetic diversity loss in both Visayan hornbill species, P. panini and A. waldeni, as compared to their more abundant relatives. This might have been caused by local extinction of genetically differentiated populations together with the dramatic decline in the abundance of the extant populations.
Conclusions: We demonstrated a loss in genetic diversity of P. panini and A. waldeni as compared to their sister taxa P. manillae and A. leucocephalus. Because of the low potential for gene flow and population exchange across islands, saving of the remaining birds of almost extinct local populations - be it in the wild or in captivity - is particularly important to preserve the species' genetic potential.
During the course of millions of years, evolutionary forces have shaped the current distribution of species and their genetic variability, by influencing their phylogeny, adaptability and probability of survival. Southeast Asia is an extraordinary biodiverse region, where past climate events have resulted in dramatic changes in land availability and distribution of vegetation, resulting likewise in periodic connections between isolated islands and the mainland. These events have influenced the way species are distributed throughout this region but, more importantly, they influenced the genesis of genetic diversity. Despite the observation that a shared paleo-history resulted in very diverse species phylogeographic patterns, the mechanisms behind these patterns are still poorly understood.
In this thesis, I investigated and contrasted the phylogeography of three groups of ungulate species distributed within South and Southeast Asia, aiming to understand what mechanisms have shaped speciation and geographical distribution of genetic variability. For that purpose, I analysed the mitogenomes of historical samples, in order to account for populations from the entire range of species distributions – including populations that no longer exist. This thesis is organized in three manuscripts, which correspond to the three investigated groups: red muntjacs, Rusa deer and Asian rhinoceros.
Red muntjacs are a widely distributed species and occur in very different habitats. We found evidence for gene-flow among populations of different islands, indicative of their ability to utilize the available land corridors. However, we described also the existence of at least two dispersal barriers that created population differentiation within this group; one isolated Sundaic and Mainland populations and the second separated individuals from Sri Lanka.
Second, the two Rusa species investigated here revealed another consequence of the historical land connections. While the two species were monophyletic, we found evidence of hybridisation in Java, facilitated by the expansion of the widespread sambar, Rusa unicolor. Consequently, I found that all the individuals of Javan deer, R. timorensis which were transported to the east of Sundaland by humans, to be of hybrid descent.
In the last manuscript, we were able to include samples from the extinct mainland populations of both Sumatran and Javan rhinoceros. The results revealed a much higher genetic diversity of the historical populations than ever reported for the contemporaneous survivors. Their evolutionary histories revealed a close relationship to climatic events of the Pleistocene but, more importantly, point out the vast extent of genetic erosion within these two endangered species.
The specific phylogeographic history of the species showed some common patters of genetic differentiation that could be directly linked to the climatic and geological changes on the Sunda Shelf during the Pleistocene. However, by contrasting these results I discussed that the same geological events
did not always result in similar histories. One obvious example was the different permeability of the land corridors of Sundaland, as the ability of each species to utilize this newly available land was directly related to their specific ecological requirements. Taken together, these results have an important contribution to the general understanding of evolution in this biodiversity hotspot and the main drivers shaping the distribution of genetic diversity, but could also have important consequences for taxonomy and conservation of the three investigated groups.
Ancient DNA of extinct species from the Pleistocene and Holocene has provided valuable evolutionary insights. However, these are largely restricted to mammals and high latitudes because DNA preservation in warm climates is typically poor. In the tropics and subtropics, non-avian reptiles constitute a significant part of the fauna and little is known about the genetics of the many extinct reptiles from tropical islands. We have reconstructed the near-complete mitochondrial genome of an extinct giant tortoise from the Bahamas (Chelonoidis alburyorum) using an approximately 1000-year-old humerus from a water-filled sinkhole (blue hole) on Great Abaco Island. Phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses place this extinct species as closely related to Galapagos (C. niger complex) and Chaco tortoises (C. chilensis), and provide evidence for repeated overseas dispersal in this tortoise group. The ancestors of extant Chelonoidis species arrived in South America from Africa only after the opening of the Atlantic Ocean and dispersed from there to the Caribbean and the Galapagos Islands. Our results also suggest that the anoxic, thermally buffered environment of blue holes may enhance DNA preservation, and thus are opening a window for better understanding evolution and population history of extinct tropical species, which would likely still exist without human impact.
Aerobic anoxygenic phototrophs (AAPs) have been shown to exist in numerous marine and brackish environments where they are hypothesized to play important ecological roles. Despite their potential significance, the study of freshwater AAPs is in its infancy and limited to local investigations. Here, we explore the occurrence, diversity and distribution of AAPs in lakes covering a wide latitudinal gradient: Mongolian and German lakes located in temperate regions of Eurasia, tropical Great East African lakes, and polar permanently ice-covered Antarctic lakes. Our results show a widespread distribution of AAPs in lakes with contrasting environmental conditions and confirm that this group is composed of different members of the Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria. While latitude does not seem to strongly influence AAP abundance, clear patterns of community structure and composition along geographic regions were observed as indicated by a strong macro-geographical signal in the taxonomical composition of AAPs. Overall, our results suggest that the distribution patterns of freshwater AAPs are likely driven by a combination of small-scale environmental conditions (specific of each lake and region) and large-scale geographic factors (climatic regions across a latitudinal gradient).
Spotlight on islands
(2018)
Groups of proximate continental islands may conceal more tangled phylogeographic patterns than oceanic archipelagos as a consequence of repeated sea level changes, which allow populations to experience gene flow during periods of low sea level stands and isolation by vicariant mechanisms during periods of high sea level stands. Here, we describe for the first time an ancient and diverging lineage of the Italian wall lizard Podarcis siculus from the western Pontine Islands. We used nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequences of 156 individuals with the aim of unraveling their phylogenetic position, while microsatellite loci were used to test several a priori insular biogeographic models of migration with empirical data. Our results suggest that the western Pontine populations colonized the islands early during their Pliocene volcanic formation, while populations from the eastern Pontine Islands seem to have been introduced recently. The inter-island genetic makeup indicates an important role of historical migration, probably due to glacial land bridges connecting islands followed by a recent vicariant mechanism of isolation. Moreover, the most supported migration model predicted higher gene flow among islands which are geographically arranged in parallel. Considering the threatened status of small insular endemic populations, we suggest this new evolutionarily independent unit be given priority in conservation efforts.
Location Eurasia. Methods We generated the largest molecular dataset to date of Z. vivipara, ran phylogenetic analyses, reconstructed its evolutionary history, determined the location of glacial refuges and reconstructed ancestral biogeographic regions. Results The phylogenetic analyses revealed a complex evolutionary history, driven by expansions and contractions of the distribution due to glacials and interglacials, and the colonization of new biogeographic regions by all lineages of Z. vivipara. Many glacial refugia were detected, most were located close to the southern limit of the Last Glacial Maximum. Two subclades recolonized large areas covered by permafrost during the last glaciation: namely, Western and Northern Europe and North-Eastern Europe and Asia.
Recent research has shown that many cold-adapted species survived the last glacial maximum (LGM) in northern refugia. Whether this evolutionary history has had consequences for their genetic diversity and adaptive potential remains unknown. We sampled 14 populations of Carex limosa, a sedge specialized to bog ecosystems, along a latitudinal gradient from its Scandinavian core to the southern lowland range-margin in Germany. Using microsatellite and experimental common-garden data, we evaluated the impacts of global climate change along this gradient and assessed the conservation status of the southern marginal populations. Microsatellite data revealed two highly distinct genetic groups and hybrid individuals. In our common-garden experiment, the two groups showed divergent responses to increased nitrogen/phosphorus (N/P) availability, suggesting ecotypic differentiation. Each group formed genetically uniform populations at both northern and southern sampling areas. Mixed populations occurred throughout our sampling area, an area that was entirely glaciated during the LGM. The fragmented distribution implies allopatric divergence at geographically separated refugia that putatively differed in N/P availability. Molecular data and an observed low hybrid fecundity indicate the importance of clonal reproduction for hybrid populations. At the southern range-margin, however, all populations showed effects of clonality, lowered fecundity and low competitiveness, suggesting abiotic and biotic constraints to population persistence.