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The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i. e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.
This study analyzes the influence of local and regional climatic factors on the stable isotopic composition of rainfall in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) as part of the Asian monsoon region. It is based on 1.5 years of weekly rainfall samples. In the first step, the isotopic composition of the samples is analyzed by local meteoric water lines (LMWLs) and single-factor linear correlations. Additionally, the contribution of several regional and local factors is quantified by multiple linear regression (MLR) of all possible factor combinations and by relative importance analysis. This approach is novel for the interpretation of isotopic records and enables an objective quantification of the explained variance in isotopic records for individual factors. In this study, the local factors are extracted from local climate records, while the regional factors are derived from atmospheric backward trajectories of water particles. The regional factors, i.e., precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and the length of backward trajectories, are combined with equivalent local climatic parameters to explain the response variables delta O-18, delta H-2, and d-excess of precipitation at the station of measurement.
The results indicate that (i) MLR can better explain the isotopic variation in precipitation (R-2 = 0.8) compared to single-factor linear regression (R-2 = 0.3); (ii) the isotopic variation in precipitation is controlled dominantly by regional moisture regimes (similar to 70 %) compared to local climatic conditions (similar to 30 %); (iii) the most important climatic parameter during the rainy season is the precipitation amount along the trajectories of air mass movement; (iv) the influence of local precipitation amount and temperature is not sig-nificant during the rainy season, unlike the regional precipitation amount effect; (v) secondary fractionation processes (e.g., sub-cloud evaporation) can be identified through the d-excess and take place mainly in the dry season, either locally for delta O-18 and delta H-2, or along the air mass trajectories for d-excess. The analysis shows that regional and local factors vary in importance over the seasons and that the source regions and transport pathways, and particularly the climatic conditions along the pathways, have a large influence on the isotopic composition of rainfall. Although the general results have been reported qualitatively in previous studies (proving the validity of the approach), the proposed method provides quantitative estimates of the controlling factors, both for the whole data set and for distinct seasons. Therefore, it is argued that the approach constitutes an advancement in the statistical analysis of isotopic records in rainfall that can supplement or precede more complex studies utilizing atmospheric models. Due to its relative simplicity, the method can be easily transferred to other regions, or extended with other factors.
The results illustrate that the interpretation of the isotopic composition of precipitation as a recorder of local climatic conditions, as for example performed for paleorecords of water isotopes, may not be adequate in the southern part of the Indochinese Peninsula, and likely neither in other regions affected by monsoon processes. However, the presented approach could open a pathway towards better and seasonally differentiated reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.
In this study, we detect high percentile rainfall events in the eastern central Andes, based on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) with a spatial resolution of 0.25 × 0.25°, a temporal resolution of 3 h, and for the duration from 2001 to 2018. We identify three areas with high mean accumulated rainfall and analyze their atmospheric behaviour and rainfall characteristics with specific focus on extreme events. Extreme events are defined by events above the 95th percentile of their daily mean accumulated rainfall. Austral summer (DJF) is the period of the year presenting the most frequent extreme events over these three regions. Daily statistics show that the spatial maxima, as well as their associated extreme events, are produced during the night. For the considered period, ERA-Interim reanalysis data, provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with 0.75° x0.75° spatial and 6-hourly temporal resolutions, were used for the analysis of the meso- and synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns. Night- and day-time differences indicate a nocturnal overload of northerly and northeasterly low-level humidity flows arriving from tropical South America. Under these conditions, cooling descending air from the mountains may find unstable air at the surface, giving place to the development of strong local convection. Another possible mechanism is presented here: a forced ascent of the low-level flow due to the mountains, disrupting the atmospheric stratification and generating vertical displacement of air trajectories. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in T-mode is applied to day- and night-time data during the maximum and extreme events. The results show strong correlation areas over each subregion under study during night-time, whereas during day-time no defined patterns are found. This confirms the observed nocturnal behavior of rainfall within these three hotspots.
Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.
The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather.
Some algorithms exist which can detect the 2-D (latitude and longitude) jets' core around the hemisphere, but all of them use a minimal threshold to determine the subtropical and polar jet stream. This is particularly problematic for the polar jet stream, whose wind velocities can change rapidly from very weak to very high values and vice versa.
We develop a network-based scheme using Dijkstra's shortest-path algorithm to detect the polar and subtropical jet stream core. This algorithm not only considers the commonly used wind strength for core detection but also takes wind direction and climatological latitudinal position into account. Furthermore, it distinguishes between polar and subtropical jet, and between separate and merged jet states.
The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams.
We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere.
With this algorithm it is possible to investigate the position of the jets' cores around the hemisphere and it is therefore very suitable to analyze jet stream patterns in observations and models, enabling more advanced model-validation.
Background: Five different G protein-coupled sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) receptors (S1P1-S1P5) regulate a variety of physiologic and pathophysiologic processes, including lymphocyte circulation, multiple sclerosis (MS), and cancer. Although B-lymphocyte circulation plays an important role in these processes and is essential for normal immune responses, little is known about S1P receptors in human B cells.
Objective: To explore their function and signaling, we studied B-cell lines and primary B cells from control subjects, patients with leukemia, patients with S1P receptor inhibitor-treated MS, and patients with primary immunodeficiencies.
Methods: S1P receptor expression was analyzed by using multicolor immunofluorescence microscopy and quantitative PCR. Transwell assays were used to study cell migration. S1P receptor internalization was visualized by means of time-lapse imaging with fluorescent S1P receptor fusion proteins expressed by using lentiviral gene transfer. B-lymphocyte subsets were characterized by means of flow cytometry and immunofluorescence microscopy.
Results: Showing that different B-cell populations express different combinations of S1P receptors, we found that S1P1 promotes migration, whereas S1P4 modulates and S1P2 inhibits S1P1 signals. Expression of CD69 in activated B lymphocytes and B cells from patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia inhibited S1P-induced migration. Studying B-cell lines, normal B lymphocytes, and B cells from patients with primary immunodeficiencies, we identified Bruton tyrosine kinase, beta-arrestin 2, LPS-responsive beige-like anchor protein, dedicator of cytokinesis 8, and Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome protein as critical signaling components downstream of S1P1.
Conclusion: Thus S1P receptor signaling regulates human B-cell circulation and might be a factor contributing to the pathology of MS, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and primary immunodeficiencies.
The variabilities of the semidiurnal solar and lunar tides of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) are investigated during the 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in this study. For this purpose, ground-magnetometer recordings at the equatorial observatories in Huancayo and Fúquene are utilized. Results show a major enhancement in the amplitude of the EEJ semidiurnal lunar tide in each of the four warming events. The EEJ semidiurnal solar tidal amplitude shows an amplification prior to the onset of warmings, a reduction during the deceleration of the zonal mean zonal wind at 60∘ N and 10 hPa, and a second enhancement a few days after the peak reversal of the zonal mean zonal wind during all four SSWs. Results also reveal that the amplitude of the EEJ semidiurnal lunar tide becomes comparable or even greater than the amplitude of the EEJ semidiurnal solar tide during all these warming events. The present study also compares the EEJ semidiurnal solar and lunar tidal changes with the variability of the migrating semidiurnal solar (SW2) and lunar (M2) tides in neutral temperature and zonal wind obtained from numerical simulations at E-region heights. A better agreement between the enhancements of the EEJ semidiurnal lunar tide and the M2 tide is found in comparison with the enhancements of the EEJ semidiurnal solar tide and the SW2 tide in both the neutral temperature and zonal wind at the E-region altitudes.