Bernhard J. Trautner

• During the last five decades hegemons played an important role in de-escalating international conflicts in the subregion defined as the core of Oriens Islamicus. Statistical analysis of large datasets shows that half of all conflicts remained without any interference from the hegemonial powers at all - both on global scale and in the subregion. In all other cases however, hegemons (especially super-powers in the role of patrons) tended more often to act as (power-) mediators when their client-state was engaged in conflict with a client of the opposing superpower in Oriens Islamicus than they did on global scale. They did this in their own interest in order to avoid direct involvement, i.e. possible danger of a nuclear escalation. In contrast to conventional mediation theory they were more effective in conflict de-escalation than other mediators, especially in conflicts between Israel and its Arab neighbours. The end of bipolarity in the international system also brought this mechanism of de-escalation to an end. It leaves theDuring the last five decades hegemons played an important role in de-escalating international conflicts in the subregion defined as the core of Oriens Islamicus. Statistical analysis of large datasets shows that half of all conflicts remained without any interference from the hegemonial powers at all - both on global scale and in the subregion. In all other cases however, hegemons (especially super-powers in the role of patrons) tended more often to act as (power-) mediators when their client-state was engaged in conflict with a client of the opposing superpower in Oriens Islamicus than they did on global scale. They did this in their own interest in order to avoid direct involvement, i.e. possible danger of a nuclear escalation. In contrast to conventional mediation theory they were more effective in conflict de-escalation than other mediators, especially in conflicts between Israel and its Arab neighbours. The end of bipolarity in the international system also brought this mechanism of de-escalation to an end. It leaves the hegemon(s) as a potentially powerful third party on the one hand, but on the other their inclination to become involved in regional conflict remains rather diminished as long as the basic national interests in the area are not at stake.…