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A SSHAC Level 3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a New-Build Nuclear Site in South Africa

  • A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculatedA probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculated using measured shear-wave velocity profiles.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Julian J. Bommer, Kevin J. Coppersmith, Ryan T. Coppersmith, Kathryn L. Hanson, Azangi Mangongolo, Johann Neveling, Ellen M. Rathje, Adrian Rodriguez-Marek, Frank Scherbaum, Refilwe Shelembe, Peter J. Stafford, Fleur O. Strasser
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1193/060913EQS145M
ISSN:8755-2930 (print)
ISSN:1944-8201 (online)
Parent Title (English):Earthquake spectra : the professional journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Publisher:Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Place of publication:Oakland
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2015
Year of Completion:2015
Release Date:2017/03/27
Volume:31
Issue:2
Pagenumber:38
First Page:661
Last Page:698
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften
Peer Review:Referiert