• search hit 2 of 7
Back to Result List

Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management

  • Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenarioScenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.show moreshow less

Download full text files

  • pmnr930.pdfeng
    (8658KB)

    SHA-1: d6259b49511c7297c1fd9f723944ba11ddf8fcd2

Export metadata

Additional Services

Search Google Scholar Statistics
Metadaten
Author details:Julia Reinhardt, Stefan LierschORCiD, Mohamed Arbi Abdeladhim, Mori Diallo, Chris DickensORCiD, Samuel Fournet, Fred Fokko Hattermann, Clovis Kabaseke, Moses Muhumuza, Marloes L. MulORCiD, Tobias PilzORCiD, Ilona M. OttoORCiD, Ariane WalzORCiDGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445784
DOI:https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-44578
ISSN:1866-8372
Title of parent work (German):Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
Subtitle (English):evidence from four case studies in Africa
Publication series (Volume number):Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (930)
Publication type:Postprint
Language:English
Date of first publication:2020/06/02
Publication year:2018
Publishing institution:Universität Potsdam
Release date:2020/06/02
Tag:Africa; global and regional change; integrated assessments; participatory research; sustainability science
Issue:930
Number of pages:36
Source:Ecology and Society 23 (2018) 1, 5 DOI: 10.5751/ES-09728-230105
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät
5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 57 Biowissenschaften; Biologie / 570 Biowissenschaften; Biologie
Peer review:Referiert
Publishing method:Open Access
License (German):License LogoCC-BY-NC - Namensnennung, nicht kommerziell 4.0 International
External remark:Bibliographieeintrag der Originalveröffentlichung/Quelle
Accept ✔
This website uses technically necessary session cookies. By continuing to use the website, you agree to this. You can find our privacy policy here.