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  • Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, withGreat megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Daniel MelnickORCiD, Shaoyang LiORCiD, Marcos MorenoORCiD, Marco Cisternas, Julius Jara-MuñozORCiDGND, Robert Wesson, Alan Nelson, Juan Carlos Báez, Zhiguo Deng
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-425723
DOI:https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-42572
ISSN:1866-8372
Parent Title (English):Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
Series (Serial Number):Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (678)
Document Type:Postprint
Language:English
Date of first Publication:2019/03/11
Year of Completion:2018
Publishing Institution:Universität Potsdam
Release Date:2019/03/11
Tag:2010 M8.8 maule; afterslip; andean subduction zone; continuous GPS measurements; finite-element model; megathrust earthquake; postseismic deformation; resolution; slip; south-central Chile
Issue:678
Pagenumber:10
Source:Nature Communications 9 (2018), Art. 3527 DOI 10.1038/s41467-018-05989-6
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 50 Naturwissenschaften / 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik
Peer Review:Referiert
Publication Way:Open Access
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - Namensnennung, 4.0 International