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Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project II Greenland

  • The Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea level from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented, and the impact of model physics and spin-up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are not always homogeneous, consistent spatial trends emerge from the ensemble analysis, indicating distinct vulnerabilities of the Greenland ice sheet. There are clear response patterns associated with each forcing, and a similar mass loss at the full ice sheet scale will result in different mass losses at the regional scale, as well as distinct thickness changes over the ice sheet. All forcingsThe Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea level from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented, and the impact of model physics and spin-up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are not always homogeneous, consistent spatial trends emerge from the ensemble analysis, indicating distinct vulnerabilities of the Greenland ice sheet. There are clear response patterns associated with each forcing, and a similar mass loss at the full ice sheet scale will result in different mass losses at the regional scale, as well as distinct thickness changes over the ice sheet. All forcings lead to an increased mass loss for the coming centuries, with increased basal lubrication and warmer ocean conditions affecting mainly outlet glaciers, while the impacts of atmospheric forcings affect the whole ice sheet.show moreshow less

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Author:Sophie Nowicki, Robert A. Bindschadler, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Ed Bueler, Hyeungu Choi, Jim Fastook, Glen Granzow, Ralf Greve, Gail Gutowski, Ute Herzfeld, Charles Jackson, Jesse Johnson, Constantine Khroulev, Eric Larour, Anders LevermannORCiDGND, William H. Lipscomb, Maria A. Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Byron R. Parizek, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Diandong Ren, Eric Rignot, Fuyuki Saito, Tatsuru Sato, Hakime Seddik, Helene Seroussi, Kunio Takahashi, Ryan Walker, Wei Li Wang
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrf.20076
ISSN:2169-9003 (print)
Parent Title (English):Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface
Publisher:American Geophysical Union
Place of publication:Washington
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2013
Year of Completion:2013
Release Date:2017/03/26
Tag:Greenland; ensemble; ice-sheet; model; sea-level
Volume:118
Issue:2
Pagenumber:20
First Page:1025
Last Page:1044
Funder:Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) [22244058]; NASA Cryospheric Sciences Award [NNX11AP39G]; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); U.S. National Science Foundation [0531211, 0758274, 0909335, ANT-0424589, 1043018, 25-0550-0001, OCE-1202632]; Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) [0424589]; NASA [NNX-09-AV94G, NNX-10-AI04G]; U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research; DOE's Office of Science [DE-AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC05-00OR22725]; DOE's ASCR; NASA Postdoctoral Program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory; NASA High-End Computing (HEC) Program through the NASA Advanced Supercomputing (NAS) Division at Ames Research Center; NSF [0909335, CReSIS 0424589]; Gary Comer Science and Education Foundation; NASA Cryospheric Science program [281945.02.53.02.19]; NASA Cryospheric Science program
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie
Peer Review:Referiert