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Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)

  • Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increaseTen ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.show moreshow less

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Author:Robert A. Bindschadler, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Hyeungu Choi, Jim Fastook, Glen Granzow, Ralf Greve, Gail Gutowski, Ute Herzfeld, Charles Jackson, Jesse Johnson, Constantine Khroulev, Anders LevermannORCiDGND, William H. Lipscomb, Maria A. Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Byron R. Parizek, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Diandong Ren, Fuyuki Saito, Tatsuru Sato, Hakime Seddik, Helene Seroussi, Kunio Takahashi, Ryan Walker, Wei Li Wang
DOI:https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J125
ISSN:0022-1430 (print)
Parent Title (English):Journal of glaciology
Publisher:International Glaciological Society
Place of publication:Cambridge
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2013
Year of Completion:2013
Release Date:2017/03/26
Volume:59
Issue:214
Pagenumber:30
First Page:195
Last Page:224
Funder:Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) [22244058]; NASA [NNX11AP39G, NNX-09-AV94G, NNX-10-AI04G, 281945.02.53.02.19]; US National Science Foundation (NSF) [0531211, 0758274, 0909335]; Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) [0424589]; NSF [0909335, ANT-0424589, 1043018, 25-0550-0001, OCE-1202632, CReSIS 0424589]; US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Office of Biological and Environmental Research; DOE's Office of Science [DE-AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC05-000R22725]; Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Research Technology and Development Program; Gary Comer Science and Education Foundation
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie
Peer Review:Referiert