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How to understand species' niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography

  • Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because sourcesink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because environmental change creates non-equilibrium situations in which species may be absent from suitable environments (due to migration limitation) or present in unsuitable environments that were previously suitable (due to time-delayed extinction). Because correlative species distribution models do not account for these processes, they are likely to produce biased niche estimates and biased forecasts of future range dynamics. Recently developed dynamic range models (DRMs) overcome this problem: they statistically estimate both range dynamics and the underlying environmental response of demographic rates from species distribution data. This process-based statistical approach qualitatively advances biogeographical analyses. Yet, the application of DRMs to aRange dynamics causes mismatches between a species geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because sourcesink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because environmental change creates non-equilibrium situations in which species may be absent from suitable environments (due to migration limitation) or present in unsuitable environments that were previously suitable (due to time-delayed extinction). Because correlative species distribution models do not account for these processes, they are likely to produce biased niche estimates and biased forecasts of future range dynamics. Recently developed dynamic range models (DRMs) overcome this problem: they statistically estimate both range dynamics and the underlying environmental response of demographic rates from species distribution data. This process-based statistical approach qualitatively advances biogeographical analyses. Yet, the application of DRMs to a broad range of species and study systems requires substantial research efforts in statistical modelling, empirical data collection and ecological theory. Here we review current and potential contributions of these fields to a demographic understanding of niches and range dynamics. Our review serves to formulate a demographic research agenda that entails: (1) advances in incorporating process-based models of demographic responses and range dynamics into a statistical framework, (2) systematic collection of data on temporal changes in distribution and abundance and on the response of demographic rates to environmental variation, and (3) improved theoretical understanding of the scaling of demographic rates and the dynamics of spatially coupled populations. This demographic research agenda is challenging but necessary for improved comprehension and quantification of niches and range dynamics. It also forms the basis for understanding how niches and range dynamics are shaped by evolutionary dynamics and biotic interactions. Ultimately, the demographic research agenda should lead to deeper integration of biogeography with empirical and theoretical ecology.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Frank M. Schurr, Joern Pagel, Juliano Sarmento SarmentoORCiD, Juergen Groeneveld, Olga Bykova, Robert B. O'Hara, Florian Hartig, W. Daniel Kissling, H. Peter Linder, Guy F. Midgley, Boris Schröder-EsselbachORCiDGND, Alexander Singer, Niklaus E. Zimmermann
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2012.02737.x
ISSN:0305-0270 (print)
Parent Title (English):Journal of biogeography
Publisher:Wiley-Blackwell
Place of publication:Hoboken
Document Type:Review
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2012
Year of Completion:2012
Release Date:2017/03/26
Tag:Biodiversity monitoring; climate change; ecological forecasts; ecological niche modelling; ecological theory; geographical range shifts; global environmental change; mechanistic models; migration; process-based statistics
Volume:39
Issue:12
Pagenumber:17
First Page:2146
Last Page:2162
Funder:German Research Foundation DFG [SCHU 2259/3-1, SCHU 2259/5-1, SCHR1000/6-1]; European Research Council ERC [233066]; Villum Kann Rasmussen Foundation [VKR09b-141]; Danish Council for Independent Research - Natural Sciences [11-106163]; Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), part of the LOEWE programme 'Landes-Offensive zur Entwicklung Wissenschaftlich-okonomischer Exzellenz' of Hesse's Ministry of Higher Education, Research and the Arts
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften
Peer Review:Referiert