Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming
- In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of record-breaking daily rainfall events using observational data. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking events has significantly increased in the global mean. Globally, this increase has led to 12 % more record-breaking rainfall events over 1981-2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of record-breaking rainfall events peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26 % chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record-breaking rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only.In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of record-breaking daily rainfall events using observational data. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking events has significantly increased in the global mean. Globally, this increase has led to 12 % more record-breaking rainfall events over 1981-2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of record-breaking rainfall events peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26 % chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record-breaking rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only. Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall record-breaking events can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, observed record-breaking rainfall events significantly increased afterwards consistent with rising temperatures.…
| Author details: | Jascha LehmannORCiD, Dim CoumouORCiDGND, Katja FrielerORCiDGND |
|---|---|
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y |
| ISSN: | 0165-0009 |
| ISSN: | 1573-1480 |
| Title of parent work (English): | Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change |
| Publisher: | Springer |
| Place of publishing: | Dordrecht |
| Publication type: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Year of first publication: | 2015 |
| Publication year: | 2015 |
| Release date: | 2017/03/27 |
| Volume: | 132 |
| Issue: | 4 |
| Number of pages: | 15 |
| First page: | 501 |
| Last Page: | 515 |
| Funding institution: | German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (Global A SIDS and LDCs) [11 II 093]; German research Foundation [CO994/2-1]; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research [01LN1304A] |
| Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
| Peer review: | Referiert |
| Institution name at the time of the publication: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften |
