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Forecasting plant migration rates : managing uncertainty for risk assessment

  • 1. Anthropogenic changes in the global climate are shifting the potential ranges of many plant species. 2. Changing climates will allow some species the opportunity to expand their range, others may experience a contraction in their potential range, while the current and future ranges of some species may not overlap. Our capacity to generalize about the threat these range shifts pose to plant diversity is limited by many sources of uncertainty. 3. In this paper we summarize sources of uncertainty for migration forecasts and suggest a research protocol for making forecasts in the context of uncertainty.

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Metadaten
Author:Steven I. Higgins, Stephen James Clark, Ran Nathan, Thomas Hovestadt, Frank Schurr, Jose M. V. Fragoso, Martin R. Aguiar, Eric Ribbens, Sandra Lavorel
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2003
Year of Completion:2003
Release Date:2017/03/24
Source:The Journal of Ecology. - 91 (2003), 3, S. 341 - 347
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Biochemie und Biologie
Peer Review:Referiert