- search hit 1 of 1
A Statistical Classifier for Historical Geomagnetic Storm Drivers Derived Solely From Ground-Based Magnetic Field Measurements
- Solar wind observations show that geomagnetic storms are mainly driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating or stream interaction regions (C/SIRs). We present a binary classifier that assigns one of these drivers to 7,546 storms between 1930 and 2015 using ground‐based geomagnetic field observations only. The input data consists of the long‐term stable Hourly Magnetospheric Currents index alongside the corresponding midlatitude geomagnetic observatory time series. This data set provides comprehensive information on the global storm time magnetic disturbance field, particularly its spatial variability, over eight solar cycles. For the first time, we use this information statistically with regard to an automated storm driver identification. Our supervised classification model significantly outperforms unskilled baseline models (78% accuracy with 26[19]% misidentified interplanetary coronal mass ejections [corotating or stream interaction regions]) and delivers plausible driver occurrences with regard to stormSolar wind observations show that geomagnetic storms are mainly driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating or stream interaction regions (C/SIRs). We present a binary classifier that assigns one of these drivers to 7,546 storms between 1930 and 2015 using ground‐based geomagnetic field observations only. The input data consists of the long‐term stable Hourly Magnetospheric Currents index alongside the corresponding midlatitude geomagnetic observatory time series. This data set provides comprehensive information on the global storm time magnetic disturbance field, particularly its spatial variability, over eight solar cycles. For the first time, we use this information statistically with regard to an automated storm driver identification. Our supervised classification model significantly outperforms unskilled baseline models (78% accuracy with 26[19]% misidentified interplanetary coronal mass ejections [corotating or stream interaction regions]) and delivers plausible driver occurrences with regard to storm intensity and solar cycle phase. Our results can readily be used to advance related studies fundamental to space weather research, for example, studies connecting galactic cosmic ray modulation and geomagnetic disturbances. They are fully reproducible by means of the underlying open‐source software (Pick, 2019, http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.3.2019.003)…
Author details: | Leonie PickORCiD, Frederic EffenbergerORCiDGND, Irina ZhelavskayaORCiDGND, Monika KorteORCiDGND |
---|---|
URN: | urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-474996 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-47499 |
ISSN: | 1866-8372 |
Title of parent work (German): | Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe |
Publication series (Volume number): | Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (982) |
Publication type: | Postprint |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2020/08/27 |
Publication year: | 2019 |
Publishing institution: | Universität Potsdam |
Release date: | 2020/08/27 |
Tag: | geomagnetic observatory data; geomagnetic storm drivers; historical geomagnetic storms; supervised machine learning |
Issue: | 982 |
Number of pages: | 18 |
First page: | 2000 |
Last Page: | 2015 |
Source: | Earth and Space Science 6 (2019) 2000-2015 DOI:10.1029/2019EA000726 |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 53 Physik / 530 Physik |
5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften | |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Green Open-Access |
License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |
External remark: | Bibliographieeintrag der Originalveröffentlichung/Quelle |
External remark: | This article is a part of this cumulative dissertation |