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Large earthquake hazard of the San Jacinto fault zone, CA, from long record of simulated seismicity assimilating the available instrumental and paleoseismic data

  • We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m aWe investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Gert Zoeller, Y. Ben-Zion
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0783-1
ISSN:0033-4553 (print)
ISSN:1420-9136 (online)
Parent Title (English):Pure and applied geophysics
Publisher:Springer
Place of publication:Basel
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2014
Year of Completion:2014
Release Date:2017/03/27
Tag:Earthquake dynamics; Earthquake interaction; Seismicity and tectonics; Statistical seismology; forecasting; prediction
Volume:171
Issue:11
Pagenumber:11
First Page:2955
Last Page:2965
Funder:Potsdam Research Cluster for Georisk Analysis, Environmental Change and Sustainability (PROGRESS); National Science Foundation [EAR-0908903]
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Mathematik
Peer Review:Referiert