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Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe Review of the current state of six 'tipping elements of the climate system'

  • We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the 'tipping' potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.

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Author details:Anders LevermannORCiDGND, Jonathan L. Bamber, Sybren Drijfhout, Andrey Ganopolski, Winfried Haeberli, Neil R. P. Harris, Matthias Huss, Kirstin Krueger, Timothy M. Lenton, Ronald W. Lindsay, Dirk Notz, Peter Wadhams, Susanne Weber
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0126-5
ISSN:0165-0009
ISSN:1573-1480
Title of parent work (English):Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change
Publisher:Springer
Place of publishing:Dordrecht
Publication type:Article
Language:English
Year of first publication:2012
Publication year:2012
Release date:2017/03/26
Volume:110
Issue:3-4
Number of pages:34
First page:845
Last Page:878
Funding institution:German Federal Ministry for Education and Science [03IS2191B]; NERC; EU [505390-GOCE-CF2004]; German Max Planck Society
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften
Peer review:Referiert
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