Intensification of very wet monsoon seasons in India under global warming
- Rainfall-intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long-term averages cause widespread floods and landslides. Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall-intense seasons (June-September). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965-2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050-2100 in the multi-model average. Under SSP2-4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons. Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase.
Author details: | Anja KatzenbergerORCiDGND, Anders LevermannORCiDGND, Jacob ScheweORCiDGND, Julia PongratzORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098856 |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
ISSN: | 1944-8007 |
Title of parent work (English): | Geophysical research letters |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Place of publishing: | Washington |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2022/08/04 |
Publication year: | 2022 |
Release date: | 2024/05/27 |
Tag: | CMIP6; India; Indian monsoon; climate change; climate modeling; extreme seasons |
Volume: | 49 |
Issue: | 15 |
Article number: | e2022GL098856 |
Number of pages: | 10 |
Funding institution: | Heinrich-Boell Foundation; Open Access Fund of the Leibniz Association;; Projekt DEAL |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Hybrid Open-Access |
License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |