Food self-sufficiency across scales: How local can we go?
- This study explores the potential for regions to shift to a local food supply using food self-sufficiency (FSS) as an indicator. We considered a region food self-sufficient when its total calorie production is enough to meet its demand. For future scenarios, we considered population growth, dietary changes, improved feed conversion efficiency, climate change, and crop yield increments. Starting at the 5' resolution, we investigated FSS from the lowest administrative levels to continents. Globally, about 1.9 billion people are self-sufficient within their 5' grid, while about 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require cross-continental agricultural trade in 2000. By closing yield gaps, these regions can achieve FSS, which also reduces international trade and increases a self-sufficient population in a 5' grid to 2.9 billion. The number of people depending on international trade will vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. Climate change may increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4% to 16%.
Author details: | Prajal PradhanORCiDGND, Matthias K. B. LüdekeGND, Dominik Edwin ReusserORCiDGND, Jürgen KroppORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1021/es5005939 |
ISSN: | 0013-936X |
ISSN: | 1520-5851 |
Pubmed ID: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25062356 |
Title of parent work (English): | Environmental science & technology |
Publisher: | American Chemical Society |
Place of publishing: | Washington |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Year of first publication: | 2014 |
Publication year: | 2014 |
Release date: | 2017/03/27 |
Volume: | 48 |
Issue: | 16 |
Number of pages: | 8 |
First page: | 9463 |
Last Page: | 9470 |
Funding institution: | Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety of Germany; European Climate-KIC |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Institution name at the time of the publication: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften |