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Complex networks reveal global pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections

  • Climatic observables are often correlated across long spatial distances, and extreme events, such as heatwaves or floods, are typically assumed to be related to such teleconnections(1,2). Revealing atmospheric teleconnection patterns and understanding their underlying mechanisms is of great importance for weather forecasting in general and extreme-event prediction in particular(3,4), especially considering that the characteristics of extreme events have been suggested to change under ongoing anthropogenic climate change(5-8). Here we reveal the global coupling pattern of extreme-rainfall events by applying complex-network methodology to high-resolution satellite data and introducing a technique that corrects for multiple-comparison bias in functional networks. We find that the distance distribution of significant connections (P < 0.005) around the globe decays according to a power law up to distances of about 2,500 kilometres. For longer distances, the probability of significant connections is much higher than expected from theClimatic observables are often correlated across long spatial distances, and extreme events, such as heatwaves or floods, are typically assumed to be related to such teleconnections(1,2). Revealing atmospheric teleconnection patterns and understanding their underlying mechanisms is of great importance for weather forecasting in general and extreme-event prediction in particular(3,4), especially considering that the characteristics of extreme events have been suggested to change under ongoing anthropogenic climate change(5-8). Here we reveal the global coupling pattern of extreme-rainfall events by applying complex-network methodology to high-resolution satellite data and introducing a technique that corrects for multiple-comparison bias in functional networks. We find that the distance distribution of significant connections (P < 0.005) around the globe decays according to a power law up to distances of about 2,500 kilometres. For longer distances, the probability of significant connections is much higher than expected from the scaling of the power law. We attribute the shorter, power-law-distributed connections to regional weather systems. The longer, super-power-law-distributed connections form a global rainfall teleconnection pattern that is probably controlled by upper-level Rossby waves. We show that extreme-rainfall events in the monsoon systems of south-central Asia, east Asia and Africa are significantly synchronized. Moreover, we uncover concise links between south-central Asia and the European and North American extratropics, as well as the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. Analysis of the atmospheric conditions that lead to these teleconnections confirms Rossby waves as the physical mechanism underlying these global teleconnection patterns and emphasizes their crucial role in dynamical tropical-extratropical couplings. Our results provide insights into the function of Rossby waves in creating stable, global-scale dependencies of extreme-rainfall events, and into the potential predictability of associated natural hazards.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author details:Niklas BoersORCiDGND, Bedartha GoswamiORCiDGND, Aljoscha RheinwaltORCiDGND, Bodo BookhagenORCiDGND, Brian Hoskins, Jürgen KurthsORCiDGND
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0872-x
ISSN:0028-0836
ISSN:1476-4687
Pubmed ID:https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30700912
Title of parent work (English):Nature : the international weekly journal of science
Publisher:Nature Publ. Group
Place of publishing:London
Publication type:Article
Language:English
Date of first publication:2019/01/30
Publication year:2019
Release date:2021/04/06
Volume:566
Issue:7744
Number of pages:18
First page:373
Last Page:377
Funding institution:German Science Foundation (DFG)/FAPESP [IRTG 1740/TRP 2015/50122-0]; Alexander von Humboldt FoundationAlexander von Humboldt Foundation; German Federal Ministry for Education and ResearchFederal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF); DFGGerman Research Foundation (DFG) [BO 4455/1-1]; DFG project IUCLiD [DFG MA4759/8]; European UnionEuropean Union (EU) [691037]; MWFK Brandenburg
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften
DDC classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Peer review:Referiert
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