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Global sensitivity analysis of parameter uncertainty in landscape evolution models

  • The evaluation and verification of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has long been limited by a lack of suitable observational data and statistical measures which can fully capture the complexity of landscape changes. This lack of data limits the use of objective function based evaluation prolific in other modelling fields, and restricts the application of sensitivity analyses in the models and the consequent assessment of model uncertainties. To overcome this deficiency, a novel model function approach has been developed, with each model function representing an aspect of model behaviour, which allows for the application of sensitivity analyses. The model function approach is used to assess the relative sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to a set of model parameters by applying the Morris method sensitivity analysis for two contrasting catchments. The test revealed that the model was most sensitive to the choice of the sediment transport formula for both catchments, and that each parameter influenced model behaviours differently,The evaluation and verification of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has long been limited by a lack of suitable observational data and statistical measures which can fully capture the complexity of landscape changes. This lack of data limits the use of objective function based evaluation prolific in other modelling fields, and restricts the application of sensitivity analyses in the models and the consequent assessment of model uncertainties. To overcome this deficiency, a novel model function approach has been developed, with each model function representing an aspect of model behaviour, which allows for the application of sensitivity analyses. The model function approach is used to assess the relative sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to a set of model parameters by applying the Morris method sensitivity analysis for two contrasting catchments. The test revealed that the model was most sensitive to the choice of the sediment transport formula for both catchments, and that each parameter influenced model behaviours differently, with model functions relating to internal geomorphic changes responding in a different way to those relating to the sediment yields from the catchment outlet. The model functions proved useful for providing a way of evaluating the sensitivity of LEMs in the absence of data and methods for an objective function approach.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author details:Christopher J. SkinnerORCiD, Tom J. CoulthardORCiD, Wolfgang SchwanghartORCiDGND, Marco J. Van De WielORCiD, Greg HancockORCiD
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468013
DOI:https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-46801
ISSN:1866-8372
Title of parent work (German):Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
Publication series (Volume number):Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (1084)
Publication type:Postprint
Language:English
Date of first publication:2021/01/11
Publication year:2018
Publishing institution:Universität Potsdam
Release date:2021/01/11
Tag:catchment; hydraulic models; mountain erosion; numerical models; periglacial engine; rainfall variability; river; scale; sediment transport; self-organized criticality
Issue:1084
Number of pages:18
First page:4873
Last Page:4888
Source:Geoscientific Model Development 11 (2018) 4873–4888 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-4873-2018
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie
DDC classification:9 Geschichte und Geografie / 91 Geografie, Reisen / 910 Geografie, Reisen
Peer review:Referiert
Publishing method:Open Access / Green Open-Access
License (German):License LogoCC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
External remark:Bibliographieeintrag der Originalveröffentlichung/Quelle
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