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Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification

  • Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect andUnderstanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Tobias SiegORCiDGND, Thomas SchinkoORCiD, Kristin VogelORCiDGND, Reinhard MechlerORCiD, Bruno MerzORCiDGND, Heidi KreibichORCiDGND
DOI:https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212932
ISSN:1932-6203
Parent Title (English):PLoS ONE
Publisher:Public Library of Science
Place of publication:San Francisco
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Date of first Publication:2019/04/04
Year of Completion:2019
Release Date:2019/05/17
Tag:Costs; Damage; Disasters; Event; Germany; Hazards; Inoperability; June 2013; Losses; Model
Volume:14
Issue:4
Pagenumber:21
Funder:Universität Potsdam
Grant Number:PA 2019_29
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 50 Naturwissenschaften
6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 61 Medizin und Gesundheit
Peer Review:Referiert
Grantor:Publikationsfonds der Universität Potsdam
Publication Way:Open Access
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - Namensnennung, 4.0 International
Notes extern:Zweitveröffentlichung in der Schriftenreihe Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe ; 708