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A Statistical Classifier for Historical Geomagnetic Storm Drivers Derived Solely From Ground-Based Magnetic Field Measurements

  • Solar wind observations show that geomagnetic storms are mainly driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating or stream interaction regions (C/SIRs). We present a binary classifier that assigns one of these drivers to 7,546 storms between 1930 and 2015 using ground‐based geomagnetic field observations only. The input data consists of the long‐term stable Hourly Magnetospheric Currents index alongside the corresponding midlatitude geomagnetic observatory time series. This data set provides comprehensive information on the global storm time magnetic disturbance field, particularly its spatial variability, over eight solar cycles. For the first time, we use this information statistically with regard to an automated storm driver identification. Our supervised classification model significantly outperforms unskilled baseline models (78% accuracy with 26[19]% misidentified interplanetary coronal mass ejections [corotating or stream interaction regions]) and delivers plausible driver occurrences with regard to stormSolar wind observations show that geomagnetic storms are mainly driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating or stream interaction regions (C/SIRs). We present a binary classifier that assigns one of these drivers to 7,546 storms between 1930 and 2015 using ground‐based geomagnetic field observations only. The input data consists of the long‐term stable Hourly Magnetospheric Currents index alongside the corresponding midlatitude geomagnetic observatory time series. This data set provides comprehensive information on the global storm time magnetic disturbance field, particularly its spatial variability, over eight solar cycles. For the first time, we use this information statistically with regard to an automated storm driver identification. Our supervised classification model significantly outperforms unskilled baseline models (78% accuracy with 26[19]% misidentified interplanetary coronal mass ejections [corotating or stream interaction regions]) and delivers plausible driver occurrences with regard to storm intensity and solar cycle phase. Our results can readily be used to advance related studies fundamental to space weather research, for example, studies connecting galactic cosmic ray modulation and geomagnetic disturbances. They are fully reproducible by means of the underlying open‐source software (Pick, 2019, http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.3.2019.003)show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author details:Leonie PickORCiD, Frederic EffenbergerORCiDGND, Irina S. ZhelavskayaORCiDGND, Monika KorteORCiDGND
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000726
ISSN:2333-5084
Title of parent work (English):Earth and Space Science
Publisher:American Geophysical Union
Place of publishing:Malden, Mass.
Publication type:Article
Language:English
Date of first publication:2019/05/27
Publication year:2019
Release date:2020/08/27
Tag:geomagnetic observatory data; geomagnetic storm drivers; historical geomagnetic storms; supervised machine learning
Volume:6
Number of pages:16
First page:2000
Last Page:2015
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften
DDC classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 53 Physik / 530 Physik
5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Peer review:Referiert
Publishing method:Open Access / Gold Open-Access
License (German):License LogoCC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
External remark:Zweitveröffentlichung in der Schriftenreihe Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe ; 982
External remark:This article is a part of this cumulative dissertation
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