Global economic response to river floods
- Increasing Earth’s surface air temperature yields an intensification of its hydrological cycle. As a consequence, the risk of river floods will increase regionally within the next two decades due to the atmospheric warming caused by past anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The direct economic losses caused by these floods can yield regionally heterogeneous losses and gains by propagation within the global trade and supply network. Here we show that, in the absence of large-scale structural adaptation, the total economic losses due to fluvial floods will increase in the next 20 years globally by 17% despite partial compensation through market adjustment within the global trade network. China will suffer the strongest direct losses, with an increase of 82%. The United States is mostly affected indirectly through its trade relations. By contrast to the United States, recent intensification of the trade relations with China leaves the European Union better prepared for the import of production losses in the future.
Author details: | Sven N. WillnerORCiDGND, Christian OttoORCiD, Anders LevermannORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0173-2 |
ISSN: | 1758-678X |
ISSN: | 1758-6798 |
Title of parent work (English): | Nature climate change |
Publisher: | Nature Publ. Group |
Place of publishing: | London |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2018/05/28 |
Publication year: | 2018 |
Release date: | 2021/12/01 |
Volume: | 8 |
Issue: | 7 |
Number of pages: | 7 |
First page: | 594 |
Last Page: | 598 |
Funding institution: | European UnionEuropean Union (EU) [603864]; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union [641811]; Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate; Center for Climate and Life of Columbia University, New York, New York; [SAW-2013-PIK-5] |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 53 Physik / 530 Physik |
Peer review: | Referiert |