Application of extreme gradient boosting and Shapley Additive explanations to predict temperature regimes inside forests from standard open-field meteorological data
- Forest microclimate can buffer biotic responses to summer heat waves, which are expected to become more extreme under climate warming. Prediction of forest microclimate is limited because meteorological observation standards seldom include situations inside forests. We use eXtreme Gradient Boosting - a Machine Learning technique - to predict the microclimate of forest sites in Brandenburg, Germany, using seasonal data comprising weather features. The analysis was amended by applying a SHapley Additive explanation to show the interaction effect of variables and individualised feature attributions. We evaluate model performance in comparison to artificial neural networks, random forest, support vector machine, and multi-linear regression. After implementing a feature selection, an ensemble approach was applied to combine individual models for each forest and improve robustness over a given single prediction model. The resulting model can be applied to translate climate change scenarios into temperatures inside forests toForest microclimate can buffer biotic responses to summer heat waves, which are expected to become more extreme under climate warming. Prediction of forest microclimate is limited because meteorological observation standards seldom include situations inside forests. We use eXtreme Gradient Boosting - a Machine Learning technique - to predict the microclimate of forest sites in Brandenburg, Germany, using seasonal data comprising weather features. The analysis was amended by applying a SHapley Additive explanation to show the interaction effect of variables and individualised feature attributions. We evaluate model performance in comparison to artificial neural networks, random forest, support vector machine, and multi-linear regression. After implementing a feature selection, an ensemble approach was applied to combine individual models for each forest and improve robustness over a given single prediction model. The resulting model can be applied to translate climate change scenarios into temperatures inside forests to assess temperature-related ecosystem services provided by forests.…
Author details: | Fatemeh GhafarianORCiD, Ralf Wieland, Dietmar Lüttschwager, Claas NendelORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105466 |
ISSN: | 1364-8152 |
ISSN: | 1873-6726 |
Title of parent work (English): | Environmental modelling & software with environment data news |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Place of publishing: | Oxford |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2022/10/01 |
Publication year: | 2022 |
Release date: | 2024/04/11 |
Tag: | cooling effect; ecosystem services; ensemble method; machine learning |
Volume: | 156 |
Article number: | 105466 |
Number of pages: | 11 |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät |
Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Biochemie und Biologie | |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 50 Naturwissenschaften / 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Hybrid Open-Access |
License (German): | CC-BY-NC-ND - Namensnennung, nicht kommerziell, keine Bearbeitungen 4.0 International |