A statistical model for earthquake recurrence based on the assimilation of paleoseismicity, historic seismicity, and instrumental seismicity

  • Paleoearthquakes and historic earthquakes are the most important source of information for the estimation of long-term earthquake recurrence intervals in fault zones, because corresponding sequences cover more than one seismic cycle. However, these events are often rare, dating uncertainties are enormous, and missing or misinterpreted events lead to additional problems. In the present study, I assume that the time to the next major earthquake depends on the rate of small and intermediate events between the large ones in terms of a clock change model. Mathematically, this leads to a Brownian passage time distribution for recurrence intervals. I take advantage of an earlier finding that under certain assumptions the aperiodicity of this distribution can be related to the Gutenberg-Richter b value, which can be estimated easily from instrumental seismicity in the region under consideration. In this way, both parameters of the Brownian passage time distribution can be attributed with accessible seismological quantities. This allows toPaleoearthquakes and historic earthquakes are the most important source of information for the estimation of long-term earthquake recurrence intervals in fault zones, because corresponding sequences cover more than one seismic cycle. However, these events are often rare, dating uncertainties are enormous, and missing or misinterpreted events lead to additional problems. In the present study, I assume that the time to the next major earthquake depends on the rate of small and intermediate events between the large ones in terms of a clock change model. Mathematically, this leads to a Brownian passage time distribution for recurrence intervals. I take advantage of an earlier finding that under certain assumptions the aperiodicity of this distribution can be related to the Gutenberg-Richter b value, which can be estimated easily from instrumental seismicity in the region under consideration. In this way, both parameters of the Brownian passage time distribution can be attributed with accessible seismological quantities. This allows to reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of the mean recurrence interval, especially for short paleoearthquake sequences and high dating errors. Using a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation results in a statistical model for earthquake recurrence intervals that assimilates in a simple way paleoearthquake sequences and instrumental data. I present illustrative case studies from Southern California and compare the method with the commonly used approach of exponentially distributed recurrence times based on a stationary Poisson process.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author details:Gert ZöllerORCiDGND
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JB015099
ISSN:2169-9313
ISSN:2169-9356
Title of parent work (English):Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth
Publisher:American Geophysical Union
Place of publishing:Washington
Publication type:Article
Language:English
Date of first publication:2018/05/07
Completion year:2018
Release date:2021/11/24
Tag:paleoearthquakes; seismic hazard; statistical seismology; stochastic models
Volume:123
Issue:6
Number of pages:16
First page:4906
Last Page:4921
Funding institution:DFG Collaborative Research CentreGerman Research Foundation (DFG) [1294]
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Mathematik
DDC classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 51 Mathematik / 510 Mathematik
Peer review:Referiert