Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis

  • The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

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Author details:Sonja Juliana TotzORCiDGND, Eli TzipermanORCiD, Dim CoumouORCiDGND, Karl PfeifferORCiD, Judah CohenORCiD
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075674
ISSN:0094-8276
ISSN:1944-8007
Title of parent work (English):Geophysical research letters
Publisher:American Geophysical Union
Place of publishing:Washington
Publication type:Article
Language:English
Date of first publication:2018/11/21
Completion year:2017
Release date:2021/10/13
Tag:cluster analysis; precipitation anomaly; seasonal forecast
Volume:44
Number of pages:9
First page:12418
Last Page:12426
Funding institution:German Federal Ministry of Education and Research [01LN1304A]; National Science Foundation [AGS-1303647, PLR-1504361]; National Science Foundation climate dynamics program [AGS-1622985]; National Science Foundation Large-Scale and Climate Dynamics Program [AGS-1303647, AGS-1303604]; National Science Foundation Division of Polar Programs [PLR-1504361]
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften
DDC classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Peer review:Referiert
Publishing method:Open Access / Bronze Open-Access