A meta-analysis of climate migration literature

  • The large literature that aims to find evidence of climate migration delivers mixed findings. This meta-regression analysis i) summarizes direct links between adverse climatic events and migration, ii) maps patterns of climate migration, and iii) explains the variation in outcomes. Using a set of limited dependent variable models, we meta-analyze thus-far the most comprehensive sample of 3,625 estimates from 116 original studies and produce novel insights on climate migration. We find that extremely high temperatures and drying conditions increase migration. We do not find a significant effect of sudden-onset events. Climate migration is most likely to emerge due to contemporaneous events, to originate in rural areas and to take place in middle-income countries, internally, to cities. The likelihood to become trapped in affected areas is higher for women and in low-income countries, particularly in Africa. We uniquely quantify how pitfalls typical for the broader empirical climate impact literature affect climate migration findings.The large literature that aims to find evidence of climate migration delivers mixed findings. This meta-regression analysis i) summarizes direct links between adverse climatic events and migration, ii) maps patterns of climate migration, and iii) explains the variation in outcomes. Using a set of limited dependent variable models, we meta-analyze thus-far the most comprehensive sample of 3,625 estimates from 116 original studies and produce novel insights on climate migration. We find that extremely high temperatures and drying conditions increase migration. We do not find a significant effect of sudden-onset events. Climate migration is most likely to emerge due to contemporaneous events, to originate in rural areas and to take place in middle-income countries, internally, to cities. The likelihood to become trapped in affected areas is higher for women and in low-income countries, particularly in Africa. We uniquely quantify how pitfalls typical for the broader empirical climate impact literature affect climate migration findings. We also find evidence of different publication biases.show moreshow less

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Author details:Barbora ŠedováGND, Lucia Čizmaziová, Athene CookORCiD
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-499827
DOI:https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-49982
ISSN:2628-653X
Title of parent work (English):CEPA Discussion Papers
Publication series (Volume number):CEPA Discussion Papers (29)
Publication type:Working Paper
Language:English
Date of first publication:2021/03/18
Completion year:2021
Publishing institution:Universität Potsdam
Release date:2021/03/18
Tag:climate change; meta-analysis; migration
Issue:29
Number of pages:83
RVK - Regensburg classification:QU 400, QV 230, MS 3600
Organizational units:Extern / Extern
Zentrale und wissenschaftliche Einrichtungen / Center for Economic Policy Analysis (CEPA)
DDC classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
JEL classification:F International Economics / F2 International Factor Movements and International Business / F22 International Migration
O Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth / O1 Economic Development / O15 Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
Q Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Q5 Environmental Economics / Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters; Global Warming
Q Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Q5 Environmental Economics / Q56 Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
Peer review:Nicht referiert
Publishing method:Open Access / Bronze Open-Access
License (German):License LogoUrheberrechtsschutz
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