Climate Change Impact Assessment on Freshwater Inflow into the Small Aral Sea

  • During the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007-2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling-Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projectionDuring the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007-2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling-Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projection period. However, we identified that the relative runoff changes are expected to be more pronounced in the case of more aggressive RCP scenarios. The simulated projections of freshwater inflow provide a basis for further assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological and ecological conditions of the Small Aral Sea in the 21st Century.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Georgy AyzelORCiD, Alexander IzhitskiyORCiD
DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112377
ISSN:2073-4441
Parent Title (English):Water
Publisher:MDPI
Place of publication:Basel
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Date of first Publication:2019/11/13
Year of Completion:2019
Release Date:2020/10/11
Tag:Small Aral Sea; climate change; hydrology; machine learning; modeling
Volume:11
Issue:11
Pagenumber:19
Funder:Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR)Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) [17-05-01175]; RFBRRussian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) [19-35-60005]; Russian Science FoundationRussian Science Foundation (RSF) [16-17-10039]; Ministry of Science and Education of Russia [0149-2019-0003]
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Peer Review:Referiert
Publication Way:Open Access
Open Access / Gold Open-Access
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