TY - JOUR A1 - Engbert, Ralf A1 - Rabe, Maximilian Michael A1 - Kliegl, Reinhold A1 - Reich, Sebastian T1 - Sequential data assimilation of the stochastic SEIR epidemic model for regional COVID-19 dynamics JF - Bulletin of mathematical biology : official journal of the Society for Mathematical Biology N2 - Newly emerging pandemics like COVID-19 call for predictive models to implement precisely tuned responses to limit their deep impact on society. Standard epidemic models provide a theoretically well-founded dynamical description of disease incidence. For COVID-19 with infectiousness peaking before and at symptom onset, the SEIR model explains the hidden build-up of exposed individuals which creates challenges for containment strategies. However, spatial heterogeneity raises questions about the adequacy of modeling epidemic outbreaks on the level of a whole country. Here, we show that by applying sequential data assimilation to the stochastic SEIR epidemic model, we can capture the dynamic behavior of outbreaks on a regional level. Regional modeling, with relatively low numbers of infected and demographic noise, accounts for both spatial heterogeneity and stochasticity. Based on adapted models, short-term predictions can be achieved. Thus, with the help of these sequential data assimilation methods, more realistic epidemic models are within reach. KW - Stochastic epidemic model KW - Sequential data assimilation KW - Ensemble Kalman KW - filter KW - COVID-19 Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-020-00834-8 SN - 0092-8240 SN - 1522-9602 VL - 83 IS - 1 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Krahé, Barbara A1 - Schuster, Isabell A1 - Tomaszewska, Paulina T1 - Prevalence of sexual aggression victimization and perpetration in a German university student sample JF - Archives of sexual behavior : the official publication of the International Academy of Sex Research N2 - This study examined the prevalence of sexual aggression perpetration and victimization in a sample of 1,172 students (755 female, 417 male) from four universities in Germany. All participants were asked about both victimization by, and perpetration of, sexual aggression since the age of 14 years, using the Sexual Aggression and Victimization Scale (SAV-S). Prevalence rates were established for different coercive strategies, sexual acts, and victim-perpetrator relationships. Both same-sex and opposite-sex victim-perpetrator constellations were examined. The overall victimization rate was 62.1% for women and 37.5% for men. The overall perpetration rate was 17.7% for men and 9.4% for women. Prevalence rates of both victimization and perpetration were higher for participants who had sexual contacts with both opposite-sex and same-sex partners than for participants with exclusively opposite-sex partners. Significant overlap was found between victim and perpetrator status for men and women as well as for participants with only opposite-sex and both opposite-sex and same-sex partners. A disparity between (higher) victimization and (lower) perpetration reports was found for both men and women, suggesting a general underreporting of perpetration rather than a gendered explanation in terms of social desirability or the perception of consent cues. The findings are placed in the international research literature on the prevalence of sexual aggression before and after the #metoo campaign, and their implications for prevention efforts are discussed. KW - Sexual aggression KW - Sexual victimization KW - Male victims KW - Female perpetrators KW - Same-sex relationships Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10508-021-01963-4 SN - 0004-0002 SN - 1573-2800 VL - 50 IS - 5 SP - 2109 EP - 2121 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lobmaier, Janek S. A1 - Fischer, Martin H. T1 - Facial Feedback Affects Perceived Intensity but Not Quality of Emotional Expressions JF - Brain Sciences N2 - Motivated by conflicting evidence in the literature, we re-assessed the role of facial feedback when detecting quantitative or qualitative changes in others’ emotional expressions. Fifty-three healthy adults observed self-paced morph sequences where the emotional facial expression either changed quantitatively (i.e., sad-to-neutral, neutral-to-sad, happy-to-neutral, neutral-to-happy) or qualitatively (i.e. from sad to happy, or from happy to sad). Observers held a pen in their own mouth to induce smiling or frowning during the detection task. When morph sequences started or ended with neutral expressions we replicated a congruency effect: Happiness was perceived longer and sooner while smiling; sadness was perceived longer and sooner while frowning. Interestingly, no such congruency effects occurred for transitions between emotional expressions. These results suggest that facial feedback is especially useful when evaluating the intensity of a facial expression, but less so when we have to recognize which emotion our counterpart is expressing. KW - embodied cognition KW - emotional expression KW - emotion recognition KW - facial feedback KW - face morphing Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/brainsci5030357 SN - 2076-3425 VL - 5 IS - 3 SP - 357 EP - 368 PB - MDPI AG CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stone, Kate A1 - Nicenboim, Bruno A1 - Vasishth, Shravan A1 - Rösler, Frank T1 - Understanding the effects of constraint and predictability in ERP JF - Neurobiology of language N2 - Intuitively, strongly constraining contexts should lead to stronger probabilistic representations of sentences in memory. Encountering unexpected words could therefore be expected to trigger costlier shifts in these representations than expected words. However, psycholinguistic measures commonly used to study probabilistic processing, such as the N400 event-related potential (ERP) component, are sensitive to word predictability but not to contextual constraint. Some research suggests that constraint-related processing cost may be measurable via an ERP positivity following the N400, known as the anterior post-N400 positivity (PNP). The PNP is argued to reflect update of a sentence representation and to be distinct from the posterior P600, which reflects conflict detection and reanalysis. However, constraint-related PNP findings are inconsistent. We sought to conceptually replicate Federmeier et al. (2007) and Kuperberg et al. (2020), who observed that the PNP, but not the N400 or the P600, was affected by constraint at unexpected but plausible words. Using a pre-registered design and statistical approach maximising power, we demonstrated a dissociated effect of predictability and constraint: strong evidence for predictability but not constraint in the N400 window, and strong evidence for constraint but not predictability in the later window. However, the constraint effect was consistent with a P600 and not a PNP, suggesting increased conflict between a strong representation and unexpected input rather than greater update of the representation. We conclude that either a simple strong/weak constraint design is not always sufficient to elicit the PNP, or that previous PNP constraint findings could be an artifact of smaller sample size. KW - N400 KW - anterior PNP KW - posterior P600 KW - probabilistic processing KW - constraint KW - predictability KW - entropy Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1162/nol_a_00094 SN - 2641-4368 VL - 4 IS - 2 SP - 221 EP - 256 PB - MIT Press CY - Cambridge, MA, USA ER -