TY - JOUR A1 - Maheswaran, Rathinasamy A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Sivakumar, Bellie A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Wavelet analysis of precipitation extremes over India and teleconnections to climate indices JF - Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment N2 - Precipitation patterns and extremes are significantly influenced by various climatic factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. This study uses wavelet coherence analysis to detect significant interannual and interdecadal oscillations in monthly precipitation extremes across India and their teleconnections to three prominent climate indices, namely, Nino 3.4, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Further, partial wavelet coherence analysis is used to estimate the standalone relationship between the climate indices and precipitation after removing the effect of interdependency. The wavelet analysis of monthly precipitation extremes at 30 different locations across India reveals that (a) interannual (2-8 years) and interdecadal (8-32 years) oscillations are statistically significant, and (b) the oscillations vary in both time and space. The results from the partial wavelet coherence analysis reveal that Nino 3.4 and IOD are the significant drivers of Indian precipitation at interannual and interdecadal scales. Intriguingly, the study also confirms that the strength of influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on Indian precipitation extremes varies with spatial physiography of the region. KW - Extreme precipitation KW - Teleconnection patterns KW - Wavelets KW - Partial wavelet coherence KW - India Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-019-01738-3 SN - 1436-3240 SN - 1436-3259 VL - 33 IS - 11-12 SP - 2053 EP - 2069 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Palyulin, Vladimir V A1 - Blackburn, George A1 - Lomholt, Michael A A1 - Watkins, Nicholas W A1 - Metzler, Ralf A1 - Klages, Rainer A1 - Chechkin, Aleksei T1 - First passage and first hitting times of Lévy flights and Lévy walks JF - New Journal of Physics N2 - For both Lévy flight and Lévy walk search processes we analyse the full distribution of first-passage and first-hitting (or first-arrival) times. These are, respectively, the times when the particle moves across a point at some given distance from its initial position for the first time, or when it lands at a given point for the first time. For Lévy motions with their propensity for long relocation events and thus the possibility to jump across a given point in space without actually hitting it ('leapovers'), these two definitions lead to significantly different results. We study the first-passage and first-hitting time distributions as functions of the Lévy stable index, highlighting the different behaviour for the cases when the first absolute moment of the jump length distribution is finite or infinite. In particular we examine the limits of short and long times. Our results will find their application in the mathematical modelling of random search processes as well as computer algorithms. KW - Lévy flights KW - Lévy walks KW - first-passage time KW - first-hitting time Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/ab41bb SN - 1367-2630 VL - 21 PB - Dt. Physikalische Ges. CY - Bad Honnef ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Landa, Polina S. A1 - Ushakov, Vladimir A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Rigorous theory of stochastic resonance in overdamped bistable oscillators for weak signals JF - Chaos, solitons & fractals : applications in science and engineering N2 - The results of the theoretical consideration of stochastic resonance in overdamped bistable oscillators are given. These results are founded not on the model of two states as in [McNamara B, Wiesenfeld K. Theory of stochastic resonance. Phys Rev A 1989;39:4854-69], but on splitting of motion into regular and random and the rigorous solution of the Fokker-Planck equation for the random component. We show that this resonance is caused by a change, under the influence of noise, of the system's effective stiffness and damping factor contained in the equation for the regular component. For a certain value of the noise intensity the effective stiffness is minimal, and this fact causes non-monotonic change of the output signal amplitude as the noise intensity changes. It is important that the location of the minimum and its value depend essentially on the signal frequency. Y1 - 2006 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09600779 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2005.08.116 SN - 0960-0779 VL - 30 IS - 3 SP - 574 EP - 578 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gandhimathi, V. M. A1 - Rajasekar, S. A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Vibrational and stochastic resonances in two coupled overdamped anharmonic oscillators JF - Modern physics letters : A, Particles and fields, gravitation, cosmology, nuclear physics N2 - We study the overdamped version of two coupled anharmonic oscillators under the influence of both low- and high-frequency forces respectively and a Gaussian noise term added to one of the two state variables of the system. The dynamics of the system is first studied in the presence of both forces separately without noise. In the presence of only one of the forces, no resonance behaviour is observed, however, hysteresis happens there. Then the influence of the high-frequency force in the presence of a low-frequency, i.e. biharmonic forcing, is studied. Vibrational resonance is found to occur when the amplitude of the high-frequency force is varied. The resonance curve resembles a stochastic resonance-like curve. It is maximum at the value of g at which the orbit lies in one well during one half of the drive cycle of the low-frequency force and in the other for the remaining half cycle. Vibrational resonance is characterized using the response amplitude and mean residence time. We show the occurrence of stochastic resonance behaviour in the overdamped system by replacing the high-frequency force by Gaussian noise. Similarities and differences between both types of resonance are presented. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - vibrational resonance KW - low-frequency force KW - high-frequency force KW - stochastic resonance KW - noise KW - mean residence time Y1 - 2006 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2006.08.051 SN - 0375-9601 VL - 360 IS - 2 SP - 279 EP - 286 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zou, Yong A1 - Thiel, M. A1 - Romano, Maria Carmen A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Bi, Q. T1 - Shrimp structure and associated dynamics in parametrically excited oscillators JF - International journal of bifurcation and chaos : in applied sciences and engineering N2 - We investigate the bifurcation structures in a two-dimensional parameter space (PS) of a parametrically excited system with two degrees of freedom both analytically and numerically. By means of the Renyi entropy of second order K-2, which is estimated from recurrence plots, we uncover that regions of chaotic behavior are intermingled with many complex periodic windows, such as shrimp structures in the PS. A detailed numerical analysis shows that, the stable solutions lose stability either via period doubling, or via intermittency when the parameters leave these shrimps in different directions, indicating different bifurcation properties of the boundaries. The shrimps of different sizes offer promising ways to control the dynamics of such a complex system. KW - bifurcation analysis KW - recurrence plot KW - period doubling KW - intermittency Y1 - 2006 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127406016987 SN - 0218-1274 VL - 16 IS - 12 SP - 3567 EP - 3579 PB - World Scientific Publ. Co CY - Singapore ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zhou, Changsong A1 - Zemanova, Lucia A1 - Zamora, Gorka A1 - Hilgetag, Claus C. A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Hierarchical organization unveiled by functional connectivity in complex brain networks JF - Physical review letters N2 - How do diverse dynamical patterns arise from the topology of complex networks? We study synchronization dynamics in the cortical brain network of the cat, which displays a hierarchically clustered organization, by modeling each node (cortical area) with a subnetwork of interacting excitable neurons. We find that in the biologically plausible regime the dynamics exhibits a hierarchical modular organization, in particular, revealing functional clusters coinciding with the anatomical communities at different scales. Our results provide insights into the relationship between network topology and functional organization of complex brain networks. Y1 - 2006 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.97.238103 SN - 0031-9007 SN - 1079-7114 VL - 97 PB - American Physical Society CY - College Park ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cherstvy, Andrey G. A1 - Thapa, Samudrajit A1 - Wagner, Caroline E. A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Non-Gaussian, non-ergodic, and non-Fickian diffusion of tracers in mucin hydrogels JF - Soft matter N2 - Native mucus is polymer-based soft-matter material of paramount biological importance. How non-Gaussian and non-ergodic is the diffusive spreading of pathogens in mucus? We study the passive, thermally driven motion of micron-sized tracers in hydrogels of mucins, the main polymeric component of mucus. We report the results of the Bayesian analysis for ranking several diffusion models for a set of tracer trajectories [C. E. Wagner et al., Biomacromolecules, 2017, 18, 3654]. The models with "diffusing diffusivity', fractional and standard Brownian motion are used. The likelihood functions and evidences of each model are computed, ranking the significance of each model for individual traces. We find that viscoelastic anomalous diffusion is often most probable, followed by Brownian motion, while the model with a diffusing diffusion coefficient is only realised rarely. Our analysis also clarifies the distribution of time-averaged displacements, correlations of scaling exponents and diffusion coefficients, and the degree of non-Gaussianity of displacements at varying pH levels. Weak ergodicity breaking is also quantified. We conclude that-consistent with the original study-diffusion of tracers in the mucin gels is most non-Gaussian and non-ergodic at low pH that corresponds to the most heterogeneous networks. Using the Bayesian approach with the nested-sampling algorithm, together with the quantitative analysis of multiple statistical measures, we report new insights into possible physical mechanisms of diffusion in mucin gels. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1039/c8sm02096e SN - 1744-683X SN - 1744-6848 VL - 15 IS - 12 SP - 2526 EP - 2551 PB - Royal Society of Chemistry CY - Cambridge ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Padash, Amin A1 - Chechkin, Aleksei A1 - Dybiec, Bartlomiej A1 - Pavlyukevich, Ilya A1 - Shokri, Babak A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - First-passage properties of asymmetric Levy flights JF - Journal of physics : A, Mathematical and theoretical N2 - Lévy flights are paradigmatic generalised random walk processes, in which the independent stationary increments—the 'jump lengths'—are drawn from an -stable jump length distribution with long-tailed, power-law asymptote. As a result, the variance of Lévy flights diverges and the trajectory is characterised by occasional extremely long jumps. Such long jumps significantly decrease the probability to revisit previous points of visitation, rendering Lévy flights efficient search processes in one and two dimensions. To further quantify their precise property as random search strategies we here study the first-passage time properties of Lévy flights in one-dimensional semi-infinite and bounded domains for symmetric and asymmetric jump length distributions. To obtain the full probability density function of first-passage times for these cases we employ two complementary methods. One approach is based on the space-fractional diffusion equation for the probability density function, from which the survival probability is obtained for different values of the stable index and the skewness (asymmetry) parameter . The other approach is based on the stochastic Langevin equation with -stable driving noise. Both methods have their advantages and disadvantages for explicit calculations and numerical evaluation, and the complementary approach involving both methods will be profitable for concrete applications. We also make use of the Skorokhod theorem for processes with independent increments and demonstrate that the numerical results are in good agreement with the analytical expressions for the probability density function of the first-passage times. KW - Levy flights KW - first-passage KW - search dynamics Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1751-8121/ab493e SN - 1751-8113 SN - 1751-8121 VL - 52 IS - 45 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Shukla, Roopam A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Maheswaran, Rathinasamy A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Krishnan, Raghavan A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach JF - Nonlinear processes in geophysics N2 - A better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India's society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a non-linear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unravelling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with the highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple timescales. We find substantial variation across India and across timescales. In particular, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the south-east at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation, particularly in the northern regions. The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) stretches across the whole country, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improve precipitation forecasting. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019 SN - 1023-5809 SN - 1607-7946 VL - 26 IS - 3 SP - 251 EP - 266 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bodrova, Anna S. A1 - Chechkin, Aleksei A1 - Sokolov, Igor M. T1 - Scaled Brownian motion with renewal resetting JF - Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics N2 - We investigate an intermittent stochastic process in which the diffusive motion with time-dependent diffusion coefficient D(t)∼tα−1 with α>0 (scaled Brownian motion) is stochastically reset to its initial position, and starts anew. In the present work we discuss the situation in which the memory on the value of the diffusion coefficient at a resetting time is erased, so that the whole process is a fully renewal one. The situation when the resetting of the coordinate does not affect the diffusion coefficient's time dependence is considered in the other work of this series [A. S. Bodrova et al., Phys. Rev. E 100, 012119 (2019)]. We show that the properties of the probability densities in such processes (erasing or retaining the memory on the diffusion coefficient) are vastly different. In addition we discuss the first-passage properties of the scaled Brownian motion with renewal resetting and consider the dependence of the efficiency of search on the parameters of the process. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.100.012120 SN - 2470-0045 SN - 2470-0053 VL - 100 IS - 1 PB - American Physical Society CY - College Park ER -