TY - JOUR A1 - Wunderling, Nico A1 - Willeit, Matteo A1 - Donges, Jonathan A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda T1 - Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice JF - Nature Communications N2 - Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 11 IS - 1 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cervantes Villa, Juan Sebastian A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Allison, Hayley J. T1 - Quantifying the effects of EMIC wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing in the outer electron radiation belt by means of data assimilation JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - In this study we investigate two distinct loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons by assimilating data from Van Allen Probes A and B and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13 and 15 into a 3-D diffusion model. In particular, we examine the respective contribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing for values of the first adiabatic invariant mu ranging from 300 to 3,000 MeV G(-1). We inspect the innovation vector and perform a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the effect of both processes as a function of various geomagnetic indices, solar wind parameters, and radial distance from the Earth. Our results are in agreement with previous studies that demonstrated the energy dependence of these two mechanisms. We show that EMIC wave scattering tends to dominate loss at lower L shells, and it may amount to between 10%/hr and 30%/hr of the maximum value of phase space density (PSD) over all L shells for fixed first and second adiabatic invariants. On the other hand, magnetopause shadowing is found to deplete electrons across all energies, mostly at higher L shells, resulting in loss from 50%/hr to 70%/hr of the maximum PSD. Nevertheless, during times of enhanced geomagnetic activity, both processes can operate beyond such location and encompass the entire outer radiation belt. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028208 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 125 IS - 8 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Smirnov, Artem A1 - Berrendorf, Max A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Kronberg, Elena A. A1 - Allison, Hayley J. A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina A1 - Morley, Steven K. A1 - Reeves, Geoffrey D. A1 - Carver, Matthew R. A1 - Effenberger, Frederic T1 - Medium energy electron flux in earth's outer radiation belt (MERLIN) BT - a Machine learning model JF - Space weather : the international journal of research and applications N2 - The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120-600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis. KW - machine learning KW - radiation belts KW - electron flux KW - empirical modeling KW - magnetosphere KW - electrons Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002532 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 18 IS - 11 PB - American geophysical union, AGU CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fulmer, Leah M. A1 - Gallagher, John S. A1 - Hamann, Wolf-Rainer A1 - Oskinova, Lidia M. A1 - Ramachandran, Varsha T1 - Testing massive star evolution, star-formation history, and feedback at low metallicity BT - photometric analysis of OB stars in the SMC Wing JF - Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal N2 - Context. The supergiant ionized shell SMC-SGS 1 (DEM 167), which is located in the outer Wing of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), resembles structures that originate from an energetic star-formation event and later stimulate star formation as they expand into the ambient medium. However, stellar populations within and surrounding SMC-SGS 1 tell a different story. Aims. We present a photometric study of the stellar population encompassed by SMC-SGS 1 in order to trace the history of such a large structure and its potential influence on star formation within the low-density, low-metallicity environment of the SMC. Methods. For a stellar population that is physically associated with SMC-SGS 1, we combined near-ultraviolet (NUV) photometry from the Galaxy Evolution Explorer with archival optical (V-band) photometry from the ESO Danish 1.54 m Telescope. Given their colors and luminosities, we estimated stellar ages and masses by matching observed photometry to theoretical stellar isochrone models. Results. We find that the investigated region supports an active, extended star-formation event spanning similar to 25-40 Myr ago, as well as continued star formation into the present. Using a standard initial mass function, we infer a lower bound on the stellar mass from this period of similar to 3 x 10(4) M-circle dot, corresponding to a star-formation intensity of similar to 6 x 10(-3) M-circle dot kpc(-2) yr(-1). Conclusions. The spatial and temporal distributions of young stars encompassed by SMC-SGS 1 imply a slow, consistent progression of star formation over millions of years. Ongoing star formation, both along the edge and interior to SMC-SGS 1, suggests a combined stimulated and stochastic mode of star formation within the SMC Wing. We note that a slow expansion of the shell within this low-density environment may preserve molecular clouds within the volume of the shell, leaving them to form stars even after nearby stellar feedback expels local gas and dust. KW - galaxies KW - stellar content KW - stars KW - formation KW - individual KW - Small KW - Magellanic Cloud Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201834314 SN - 0004-6361 SN - 1432-0746 VL - 633 PB - EDP Sciences CY - Les Ulis ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tönjes, Ralf A1 - Pikovsky, Arkady T1 - Low-dimensional description for ensembles of identical phase oscillators subject to Cauchy noise JF - Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics N2 - We study ensembles of globally coupled or forced identical phase oscillators subject to independent white Cauchy noise. We demonstrate that if the oscillators are forced in several harmonics, stationary synchronous regimes can be exactly described with a finite number of complex order parameters. The corresponding distribution of phases is a product of wrapped Cauchy distributions. For sinusoidal forcing, the Ott-Antonsen low-dimensional reduction is recovered. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.052315 SN - 2470-0045 SN - 2470-0053 VL - 102 IS - 5 PB - American Physical Society CY - College Park ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gong, Chen Chris A1 - Tönjes, Ralf A1 - Pikovsky, Arkady T1 - Coupled Möbius maps as a tool to model Kuramoto phase synchronization JF - Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics N2 - We propose Mobius maps as a tool to model synchronization phenomena in coupled phase oscillators. Not only does the map provide fast computation of phase synchronization, it also reflects the underlying group structure of the sinusoidally coupled continuous phase dynamics. We study map versions of various known continuous-time collective dynamics, such as the synchronization transition in the Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model of nonidentical oscillators, chimeras in two coupled populations of identical phase oscillators, and Kuramoto-Battogtokh chimeras on a ring, and demonstrate similarities and differences between the iterated map models and their known continuous-time counterparts. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.022206 SN - 2470-0045 SN - 2470-0053 SN - 1063-651X SN - 2470-0061 SN - 1550-2376 VL - 102 IS - 2 PB - American Physical Society CY - College Park ER -