TY - JOUR A1 - Garbe, Julius A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Donges, Jonathan A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda T1 - The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet JF - Nature : the international weekly journal of science N2 - More than half of Earth's freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions(1). Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata(2)we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model(3-5), that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet's temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica's long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.
Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5 SN - 0028-0836 SN - 1476-4687 VL - 585 IS - 7826 SP - 538 EP - 544 PB - Macmillan Publishers Limited CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schlemm, Tanja A1 - Feldmann, Johannes A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Stabilizing effect of melange buttressing on the marine ice-cliff instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Owing to global warming and particularly high regional ocean warming, both Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers in the Amundsen region of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could lose their buttressing ice shelves over time. We analyse the possible consequences using the parallel ice sheet model (PISM), applying a simple cliff-calving parameterization and an ice melange-buttressing model. We find that the instantaneous loss of ice-shelf buttressing, due to enforced ice-shelf melting, initiates grounding-line retreat and triggers marine ice sheet instability (MISI). As a consequence, the grounding line progresses into the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and leads to a sea level contribution of 0.6 m within 100 a. By subjecting the exposed ice cliffs to cliff calving using our simplified parameterization, we also analyse marine ice cliff instability (MICI). In our simulations it can double or even triple the sea level contribution depending on the only loosely constrained parameter that determines the maximum cliff-calving rate. The speed of MICI depends on this upper bound of the calving rate, which is given by the ice melange buttressing the glacier. However, stabilization of MICI may occur for geometric reasons. Because the embayment geometry changes as MICI advances into the interior of the ice sheet, the upper bound on calving rates is reduced and the progress of MICI is slowed down. Although we cannot claim that our simulations bear relevant quantitative estimates of the effect of ice-melange buttressing on MICI, the mechanism has the potential to stop the instability. Further research is needed to evaluate its role for the past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 16 IS - 5 SP - 1979 EP - 1996 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - THES A1 - Bastian, Martin T1 - An emergent machine learning approach for seasonal cyclone activity forecasts N2 - Seasonal forecasts are of great interest in many areas. Knowing the amount of precipitation for the upcoming season in regions of water scarcity would facilitate a better water management. If farmers knew the weather conditions of the upcoming summer at sowing time, they could select those cereal species that are best adapted to these conditions. This would allow farmers to improve the harvest and potentially even reduce the amount of pesticides used. However, the undoubted advantages of seasonal forecasts are often opposed by their high degree of uncertainty. The great challenge of generating seasonal forecasts with lead times of several months mainly originates from the chaotic nature of the earth system. In a chaotic system, even tiny differences in the initial conditions can lead to strong deviations in the system’s state in the long run. In this dissertation we propose an emergent machine learning approach for seasonal forecasting, called the AnlgModel. The AnlgModel combines the analogue method with myopic feature selection and bootstrapping. To benchmark the abilities of the AnlgModel we apply it to seasonal cyclone activity forecasts in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific. The AnlgModel demonstrates competitive hindcast skills with two operational forecasts and even outperforms these for long lead times. In the second chapter we comprehend the forecasting strategy of the Anlg-Model. We thereby analyse the analogue selection process for the 2017 North Atlantic and the 2018 Northwest Pacific seasonal cyclone activity. The analysis shows that those climate indices which are known to influence the seasonal cyclone activity, such as the Niño 3.4 SST, are correctly represented among the selected analogues. Furthermore the selected analogues reflect large-scale climate patterns that were identified by expert reports as being determinative for these particular seasons. In the third chapter we analyse the features that are used by the AnlgModel for its predictions. We therefore inspect the feature relevance (FR). The FR patterns learned by the AnlgModel show a high congruence with the predictor regions used by the operational forecasts. However, the AnlgModel also discovered new features, such as the SST anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea during November. This SST pattern exhibits a remarkably high predictive potential for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane activity. In the final chapter we investigate potential mechanisms, that link two of these regions with high feature relevance to the Atlantic hurricane activity. We mainly focus on ocean surface transport. The ocean surface flow paths are calculated using Lagrangian particle analysis. We demonstrate that the FR patterns in the region of the Canary islands do not correspond with ocean surface transport. It is instead likely that these FR patterns fingerprint a wind transport of latent heat. The second region to be studied is situated in the Gulf of Guinea. Our analysis shows that the FR patterns seen there do fingerprint ocean surface transport. However, our simulations also show that at least one other mechanism is involved in linking the Gulf of Guinea SST anomaly in November to the hurricane activity of the upcoming season. In this work the AnlgModel does not only demonstrate its outstanding forecast skills but also shows its capabilities as research tool for detecting oceanic and atmospheric mechanisms. KW - seasonal cyclone activity forecasts Y1 - 2023 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Feldmann, Johannes A1 - Reese, Ronja A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Shear-margin melting causes stronger transient ice discharge than ice-stream melting in idealized simulations JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Basal ice-shelf melting is the key driver of Antarctica's increasing sea-level contribution. In diminishing the buttressing force of the ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet, the melting increases the ice discharge into the ocean. Here we contrast the influence of basal melting in two different ice-shelf regions on the time-dependent response of an isothermal, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system. In the idealized numerical simulations, the basal-melt perturbations are applied close to the grounding line in the ice-shelf's (1) ice-stream region, where the ice shelf is fed by the fastest ice masses that stream through the upstream bed trough and (2) shear margins, where the ice flow is slower. The results show that melting below one or both of the shear margins can cause a decadal to centennial increase in ice discharge that is more than twice as large compared to a similar perturbation in the ice-stream region. We attribute this to the fact that melt-induced ice-shelf thinning in the central grounding-line region is attenuated very effectively by the fast flow of the central ice stream. In contrast, the much slower ice dynamics in the lateral shear margins of the ice shelf facilitate sustained ice-shelf thinning and thereby foster buttressing reduction. Regardless of the melt location, a higher melt concentration toward the grounding line generally goes along with a stronger response. Our results highlight the vulnerability of outlet glaciers to basal melting in stagnant, buttressing-relevant ice-shelf regions, a mechanism that may gain importance under future global warming. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 16 IS - 5 SP - 1927 EP - 1940 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wunderling, Nico A1 - Willeit, Matteo A1 - Donges, Jonathan A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda T1 - Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice JF - Nature Communications N2 - Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 11 IS - 1 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Klose, Ann Kristin A1 - Wunderling, Nico A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Donges, Jonathan T1 - What do we mean, 'tipping cascade'? JF - Environmental research letters : ERL N2 - Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied. The activation of such tipping cascades would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. A mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree. In contrast, a domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down-based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses of cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system. KW - tipping cascade KW - domino effect KW - tipping interactions KW - cascading regime KW - shifts KW - early warning indicators Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 12 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kunert, Nina A1 - Pang, Peter T. H. A1 - Tews, Ingo A1 - Coughlin, Michael W. A1 - Dietrich, Tim T1 - Quantifying modeling uncertainties when combining multiple gravitational-wave detections from binary neutron star sources JF - Physical review D N2 - With the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to 1250 m (2% at 90% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.105.L061301 SN - 2470-0010 SN - 2470-0029 VL - 105 IS - 6 PB - American Physical Society CY - College Park ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bulla, Mattia A1 - Coughlin, Michael W. A1 - Dhawan, Suhail A1 - Dietrich, Tim T1 - Multi-messenger constraints on the Hubble constant through combination of gravitational waves, gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae from neutron star mergers JF - Universe : open access journal N2 - The simultaneous detection of gravitational waves and light from the binary neutron star merger GW170817 led to independent measurements of distance and redshift, providing a direct estimate of the Hubble constant H-0 that does not rely on a cosmic distance ladder, nor assumes a specific cosmological model. By using gravitational waves as "standard sirens", this approach holds promise to arbitrate the existing tension between the H-0 value inferred from the cosmic microwave background and those obtained from local measurements. However, the known degeneracy in the gravitational-wave analysis between distance and inclination of the source led to a H-0 value from GW170817 that was not precise enough to resolve the existing tension. In this review, we summarize recent works exploiting the viewing-angle dependence of the electromagnetic signal, namely the associated short gamma-ray burst and kilonova, to constrain the system inclination and improve on H-0. We outline the key ingredients of the different methods, summarize the results obtained in the aftermath of GW170817 and discuss the possible systematics introduced by each of these methods. KW - gravitational waves KW - stars: neutron KW - stars: binaries KW - cosmology: cosmological parameters KW - cosmology: distance scale KW - cosmology: cosmic background radiation Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/universe8050289 SN - 2218-1997 VL - 8 IS - 5 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - GEN A1 - Ciemer, Catrin A1 - Rehm, Lars A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Donner, Reik Volker A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Boers, Niklas T1 - An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1207 KW - complex networks KW - droughts KW - prediction KW - Amazon rainforest Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525863 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 9 ER - TY - THES A1 - Khosravi, Sara T1 - The effect of new turbulence parameterizations for the stable surface layer on simulations of the Arctic climate T1 - Die Auswirkung neuer Turbulenzparametrisierungen auf die stabile Grenzschicht in Simulationen des arktischen Klimas N2 - Arctic climate change is marked by intensified warming compared to global trends and a significant reduction in Arctic sea ice which can intricately influence mid-latitude atmospheric circulation through tropo- and stratospheric pathways. Achieving accurate simulations of current and future climate demands a realistic representation of Arctic climate processes in numerical climate models, which remains challenging. Model deficiencies in replicating observed Arctic climate processes often arise due to inadequacies in representing turbulent boundary layer interactions that determine the interactions between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. Many current climate models rely on parameterizations developed for mid-latitude conditions to handle Arctic turbulent boundary layer processes. This thesis focuses on modified representation of the Arctic atmospheric processes and understanding their resulting impact on large-scale mid-latitude atmospheric circulation within climate models. The improved turbulence parameterizations, recently developed based on Arctic measurements, were implemented in the global atmospheric circulation model ECHAM6. This involved modifying the stability functions over sea ice and ocean for stable stratification and changing the roughness length over sea ice for all stratification conditions. Comprehensive analyses are conducted to assess the impacts of these modifications on ECHAM6's simulations of the Arctic boundary layer, overall atmospheric circulation, and the dynamical pathways between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. Through a step-wise implementation of the mentioned parameterizations into ECHAM6, a series of sensitivity experiments revealed that the combined impacts of the reduced roughness length and the modified stability functions are non-linear. Nevertheless, it is evident that both modifications consistently lead to a general decrease in the heat transfer coefficient, being in close agreement with the observations. Additionally, compared to the reference observations, the ECHAM6 model falls short in accurately representing unstable and strongly stable conditions. The less frequent occurrence of strong stability restricts the influence of the modified stability functions by reducing the affected sample size. However, when focusing solely on the specific instances of a strongly stable atmosphere, the sensible heat flux approaches near-zero values, which is in line with the observations. Models employing commonly used surface turbulence parameterizations were shown to have difficulties replicating the near-zero sensible heat flux in strongly stable stratification. I also found that these limited changes in surface layer turbulence parameterizations have a statistically significant impact on the temperature and wind patterns across multiple pressure levels, including the stratosphere, in both the Arctic and mid-latitudes. These significant signals vary in strength, extent, and direction depending on the specific month or year, indicating a strong reliance on the background state. Furthermore, this research investigates how the modified surface turbulence parameterizations may influence the response of both stratospheric and tropospheric circulation to Arctic sea ice loss. The most suitable parameterizations for accurately representing Arctic boundary layer turbulence were identified from the sensitivity experiments. Subsequently, the model's response to sea ice loss is evaluated through extended ECHAM6 simulations with different prescribed sea ice conditions. The simulation with adjusted surface turbulence parameterizations better reproduced the observed Arctic tropospheric warming in vertical extent, demonstrating improved alignment with the reanalysis data. Additionally, unlike the control experiments, this simulation successfully reproduced specific circulation patterns linked to the stratospheric pathway for Arctic-mid-latitude linkages. Specifically, an increased occurrence of the Scandinavian-Ural blocking regime (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation) in early (late) winter is observed. Overall, it can be inferred that improving turbulence parameterizations at the surface layer can improve the ECHAM6's response to sea ice loss. N2 - Der Klimawandel in der Arktis ist durch eine im Vergleich zum globalen Klimawandel verstärkte Erwärmung und einem damit verbundenen starken Rückgang des arktischen Meereises gekennzeichnet. Da dieser verstärkte Klimawandel in der Arktis die atmosphärische Zirkulation in den mittleren Breiten auf komplexe Weise über tropo- und stratosphärische Pfade beeinflussen kann, ist eine realistische Darstellung arktischer Prozesse in numerischen Klimamodellen für zuverlässige Simulationen gegenwärtiger und zukünftiger Klimaänderungen notwendig, stellt aber nach wie vor eine Herausforderung dar. Ein wesentlicher Grund für Modelldefizite bei der Reproduktion der beobachteten arktischen Klimaprozesse sind Unzulänglichkeiten bei der Darstellung von turbulenten Grenzschichtprozessen, die die Wechselwirkung zwischen Atmosphäre, Meereis und Ozean bestimmen. Gegenwärtige Klimamodelle verwenden für die Darstellung von turbulenten Grenzschichtprozessen in der Arktis häufig Parametrisierungen, die für Bedingungen in mittleren Breiten entwickelt wurden. Diese Arbeit zielt auf eine bessere Darstellung arktischer atmosphärischer Prozesse in Klimamodellen und ein besseres Verständnis der daraus resultierenden Auswirkungen auf die simulierte großskalige atmosphärische Zirkulation in mittleren Breiten ab. Aus diesem Grund wurde in dieser Arbeit eine Hierarchie von verbesserten Turbulenzparametrisierungen in das globale atmosphärische Zirkulationsmodell ECHAM6 implementiert, die basierend auf arktischen Messungen kürzlich entwickelt wurden. Dabei wurden die Stabilitätsfunktionen über Meereis und Ozean für stabile Schichtung sowie die Rauhigkeitslänge über dem Meereis für alle Schichtungsbedingungen modifiziert. Anschließend wurde eine umfassende Analyse der jeweiligen Sensitivitätsexperimente durchgeführt, um den Einfluss dieser Modifikationen auf die Simulationen der arktischen Grenzschicht, der großräumigen atmosphärischen Zirkulation und der dynamischen Verbindungswege zwischen der Arktis und den mittleren Breiten in ECHAM6 zu bewerten. Durch eine schrittweise Implementierung der Hierarchie von verbesserten Turbulenzparameterisierungen in ECHAM6 wurden in einer Reihe von Sensitivitätsexperimenten folgende Erkenntnisse gewonnen: Die kombinierte Auswirkung der reduzierten Rauhigkeitslänge und der modifizierten Stabilitätsfunktionen ist nichtlinear. Dennoch zeigt sich, dass beide Modifikationen zu einer besseren Darstellung arktischer Grenzschichtprozesse führen, insbesondere stimmt die Verringerung des Transferkoeffizienten für Wärme gut mit den Beobachtungen überein. Im Vergleich zu den Referenzbeobachtungen zeigt das ECHAM6-Modell jedoch eine unrealistische Darstellung des Auftretens labiler und stark stabiler Schichtungsbedingungen. Die geringere Häufigkeit von stark stabilen Bedingungen begrenzt den Einfluss der modifizierten Stabilitätsfunktionen. Wenn in den Modelldaten nur die Fälle mit stark stabiler Schichtung analysiert werden, führt die Verwendung der modifizierten Stabilitätsfunktionen zu sehr kleinen turbulenten sensiblen Wärmeflüssen in guter Übereinstimmung mit den Beobachtungen. Dieses Verhalten wurde in den Modellsimulationen mit der Standardturbulenzparametrisierung nicht reproduziert. Es wurde zudem festgestellt, dass die Änderungen in den Turbulenzparametrisierungen einen statistisch signifikanten Einfluss auf die großskaligen Temperatur- und Windfelder in verschiedenen Höhen bis in die Stratosphäre sowohl in der Arktis als auch in den mittleren Breiten haben. Diese signifikanten Signale variieren in ihrer Stärke und Lage je nach Monat und Jahr, was eine starke Abhängigkeit vom Hintergrundzustand anzeigt. Des Weiteren wird in dieser Arbeit untersucht, wie die modifizierten Turbulenzparametrisierungen die Reaktion der troposphärischen und stratosphärischen Zirkulation auf den Rückgang des arktischen Meereises beeinflussen. Dafür wurden die geeignetsten Parametrisierungen zur Darstellung der arktischen Grenzschichtturbulenz anhand der Sensitivitätsexperimente identifiziert. Anschließend wurde die Reaktion des Modells ECHAM6 auf den Meereisverlust durch weitere lange Simulationen mit unterschiedlichen vorgegebenen Meereisbedingungen bewertet. Dabei simuliert die ECHAM6 Modellversion mit verbesserter Turbulenzparametrisierung eine größere vertikale Ausdehnung der arktischen troposphärischen Erwärmung bei Meereisrückgang und zeigt somit eine verbesserte Übereinstimmung mit den Reanalyse-Daten. Darüber hinaus treten in dieser Simulation im Gegensatz zu den Kontrollexperimenten häufiger bevorzugte Zirkulationsmuster auf, die dafür bekannt sind, dass sie Änderungen in der Arktis dynamisch mit den mittleren Breiten verknüpfen. Insbesondere treten blockierende Hochdrucklagen über Skandinavien/Ural im Frühwinter und die negative Phase der Nordatlantischen Oszillation im Spätwinter häufiger auf. Daher lässt sich ableiten, dass durch eine Verbesserung der Turbulenzparametrisierung der Effekt von Meereisverlust in ECHAM6 realistischer dargestellt werden kann. KW - boundary layer KW - atmosphere KW - atmospheric modelling KW - turbulence parameterizations KW - Atmosphäre KW - Atmosphärenmodellierung KW - Grenzschicht KW - Turbulenzparametrisierungen Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-643520 ER - TY - THES A1 - Damseaux, Adrien T1 - Improving permafrost dynamics in land surface models: insights from dual sensitivity experiments T1 - Verbesserung der Permafrostdynamik in Landoberflächenmodellen: Erkenntnisse aus doppelten Sensitivitätsexperimenten N2 - The thawing of permafrost and the subsequent release of greenhouse gases constitute one of the most significant and uncertain positive feedback loops in the context of climate change, making predictions regarding changes in permafrost coverage of paramount importance. To address these critical questions, climate scientists have developed Land Surface Models (LSMs) that encompass a multitude of physical soil processes. This thesis is committed to advancing our understanding and refining precise representations of permafrost dynamics within LSMs, with a specific focus on the accurate modeling of heat fluxes, an essential component for simulating permafrost physics. The first research question overviews fundamental model prerequisites for the representation of permafrost soils within land surface modeling. It includes a first-of-its-kind comparison between LSMs in CMIP6 to reveal their differences and shortcomings in key permafrost physics parameters. Overall, each of these LSMs represents a unique approach to simulating soil processes and their interactions with the climate system. Choosing the most appropriate model for a particular application depends on factors such as the spatial and temporal scale of the simulation, the specific research question, and available computational resources. The second research question evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Community Land Model (CLM5) in simulating Arctic permafrost regions. Our approach overcomes traditional evaluation limitations by individually addressing depth, seasonality, and regional variations, providing a comprehensive assessment of permafrost and soil temperature dynamics. I compare CLM5's results with three extensive datasets: (1) soil temperatures from 295 borehole stations, (2) active layer thickness (ALT) data from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network (CALM), and (3) soil temperatures, ALT, and permafrost extent from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI). The results show that CLM5 aligns well with ESA-CCI and CALM for permafrost extent and ALT but reveals a significant global cold temperature bias, notably over Siberia. These results echo a persistent challenge identified in numerous studies: the existence of a systematic 'cold bias' in soil temperature over permafrost regions. To address this challenge, the following research questions propose dual sensitivity experiments. The third research question represents the first study to apply a Plant Functional Type (PFT)-based approach to derive soil texture and soil organic matter (SOM), departing from the conventional use of coarse-resolution global data in LSMs. This novel method results in a more uniform distribution of soil organic matter density (OMD) across the domain, characterized by reduced OMD values in most regions. However, changes in soil texture exhibit a more intricate spatial pattern. Comparing the results to observations reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias observed in the control run. This method shows noticeable improvements in permafrost extent, but at the cost of an overestimation in ALT. These findings emphasize the model's high sensitivity to variations in soil texture and SOM content, highlighting the crucial role of soil composition in governing heat transfer processes and shaping the seasonal variation of soil temperatures in permafrost regions. Expanding upon a site experiment conducted in Trail Valley Creek by \citet{dutch_impact_2022}, the fourth research question extends the application of the snow scheme proposed by \citet{sturm_thermal_1997} to cover the entire Arctic domain. By employing a snow scheme better suited to the snow density profile observed over permafrost regions, this thesis seeks to assess its influence on simulated soil temperatures. Comparing this method to observational datasets reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias that was present in the control run. In most regions, the Sturm run exhibits a substantial decrease in the cold bias. However, there is a distinctive overshoot with a warm bias observed in mountainous areas. The Sturm experiment effectively addressed the overestimation of permafrost extent in the control run, albeit resulting in a substantial reduction in permafrost extent over mountainous areas. ALT results remain relatively consistent compared to the control run. These outcomes align with our initial hypothesis, which anticipated that the reduced snow insulation in the Sturm run would lead to higher winter soil temperatures and a more accurate representation of permafrost physics. In summary, this thesis demonstrates significant advancements in understanding permafrost dynamics and its integration into LSMs. It has meticulously unraveled the intricacies involved in the interplay between heat transfer, soil properties, and snow dynamics in permafrost regions. These insights offer novel perspectives on model representation and performance. N2 - Das Auftauen von Permafrost und die anschließende Freisetzung von Treibhausgasen stellen eine der bedeutendsten und unsichersten positiven Rückkopplungsschleifen im Kontext des Klimawandels dar, was Vorhersagen über Veränderungen der Permafrostverbreitung von größter Bedeutung macht. Um diese kritischen Fragen zu adressieren, haben Klimawissenschaftler Landoberflächenmodelle (LSMs) entwickelt, die eine Vielzahl physikalischer Bodenprozesse umfassen. Diese Dissertation widmet sich der Vertiefung unseres Verständnisses und der Verfeinerung präziser Darstellungen der Permafrostdynamik innerhalb von LSMs, mit einem besonderen Fokus auf die genaue Modellierung von Wärmeflüssen, einem wesentlichen Bestandteil der Simulation von Permafrostphysik. Die erste Forschungsfrage gibt einen Überblick über grundlegende Modellanforderungen für die Darstellung von Permafrostböden innerhalb der Landoberflächenmodellierung. Sie beinhaltet einen erstmaligen Vergleich zwischen LSMs im Rahmen von CMIP6, um deren Unterschiede und Schwächen in den Schlüsselparametern der Permafrostphysik aufzuzeigen. Insgesamt repräsentiert jedes dieser LSMs einen einzigartigen Ansatz zur Simulation von Bodenprozessen und deren Wechselwirkungen mit dem Klimasystem. Die Wahl des am besten geeigneten Modells für eine bestimmte Anwendung hängt von Faktoren wie dem räumlichen und zeitlichen Maßstab der Simulation, der spezifischen Forschungsfrage und den verfügbaren Rechenressourcen ab. Die zweite Forschungsfrage bewertet die Leistungsfähigkeit des hochmodernen Community Land Model (CLM5) bei der Simulation arktischer Permafrostregionen. Unser Ansatz überwindet traditionelle Evaluationsbeschränkungen, indem er Tiefe, Saisonalität und regionale Variationen einzeln berücksichtigt und eine umfassende Bewertung der Permafrost- und Bodentemperaturdynamik liefert. Ich vergleiche die Ergebnisse von CLM5 mit drei umfangreichen Datensätzen: (1) Bodentemperaturen von 295 Bohrlochstationen, (2) Daten zur aktiven Schichtdicke (ALT) aus dem Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network (CALM) und (3) Bodentemperaturen, ALT und Permafrostausdehnung aus der ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass CLM5 gut mit ESA-CCI und CALM für Permafrostausdehnung und ALT übereinstimmt, jedoch eine signifikante globale kalte Temperaturabweichung aufweist, insbesondere über Sibirien. Diese Ergebnisse spiegeln eine anhaltende Herausforderung wider, die in zahlreichen Studien identifiziert wurde: das Vorhandensein einer systematischen "kalten Abweichung" bei Bodentemperaturen in Permafrostregionen. Um diese Herausforderung anzugehen, schlagen die folgenden Forschungsfragen duale Sensitivitätsexperimente vor. Die dritte Forschungsfrage stellt die erste Studie dar, die einen pflanzenfunktionstypbasierten Ansatz (PFT) zur Ableitung von Bodentextur und organischer Bodensubstanz (SOM) anwendet und sich von der herkömmlichen Verwendung grob aufgelöster globaler Daten in LSMs abwendet. Diese neuartige Methode führt zu einer gleichmäßigeren Verteilung der Dichte organischer Bodensubstanz (OMD) im gesamten Bereich, gekennzeichnet durch geringere OMD-Werte in den meisten Regionen. Veränderungen in der Bodentextur zeigen jedoch ein komplexeres räumliches Muster. Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse mit Beobachtungen zeigt eine signifikante Reduzierung der kalten Abweichung, die im Kontrolllauf beobachtet wurde. Diese Methode zeigt bemerkenswerte Verbesserungen in der Permafrostausdehnung, jedoch auf Kosten einer Überschätzung der ALT. Diese Ergebnisse unterstreichen die hohe Empfindlichkeit des Modells gegenüber Variationen in der Bodentextur und dem SOM-Gehalt und heben die entscheidende Rolle der Bodenbeschaffenheit bei der Steuerung der Wärmeübertragungsprozesse und der saisonalen Variation der Bodentemperaturen in Permafrostregionen hervor. Aufbauend auf einem Standortexperiment im Trail Valley Creek von Dutch et al. (2022) erweitert die vierte Forschungsfrage die Anwendung des von Sturm et al. (1997) vorgeschlagenen Schneeschemas auf das gesamte arktische Gebiet. Durch die Anwendung eines Schneeschemas, das besser zu dem in Permafrostregionen beobachteten Schneedichteprofil passt, versucht diese Dissertation, dessen Einfluss auf die simulierten Bodentemperaturen zu bewerten. Der Vergleich dieser Methode mit Beobachtungsdatensätzen zeigt eine signifikante Reduzierung der kalten Abweichung, die im Kontrolllauf vorhanden war. In den meisten Regionen weist der Sturm-Lauf eine erhebliche Verringerung der kalten Abweichung auf. Es gibt jedoch eine deutliche Überschreitung mit einer warmen Abweichung in Bergregionen. Das Sturm-Experiment hat die Überschätzung der Permafrostausdehnung im Kontrolllauf wirksam angegangen, was jedoch zu einer erheblichen Reduzierung der Permafrostausdehnung in Bergregionen führte. Die ALT-Ergebnisse bleiben im Vergleich zum Kontrolllauf relativ konsistent. Diese Ergebnisse entsprechen unserer ursprünglichen Hypothese, die erwartete, dass die reduzierte Schneedecke im Sturm-Lauf zu höheren Winterbodentemperaturen und einer genaueren Darstellung der Permafrostphysik führen würde. Zusammenfassend zeigt diese Dissertation bedeutende Fortschritte im Verständnis der Permafrostdynamik und deren Integration in LSMs. Sie hat die Komplexität der Wechselwirkungen zwischen Wärmeübertragung, Bodeneigenschaften und Schneedynamik in Permafrostregionen sorgfältig entschlüsselt. Diese Erkenntnisse bieten neue Perspektiven auf die Modellierung und Leistung von Modellen. KW - snow thermal conductivity KW - soil organic matter KW - model validation KW - Modellvalidierung KW - Wärmeleitfähigkeit von Schnee KW - organische Bodensubstanz Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-639450 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bernardi, Rafael L. A1 - Berdja, Amokrane A1 - Dani Guzman, Christian A1 - Torres-Torriti, Miguel A1 - Roth, Martin M. T1 - Restoration of images with a spatially varying PSF of the T80-S telescope optical model using neural networks JF - Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society N2 - Most image restoration methods in astronomy rely upon probabilistic tools that infer the best solution for a deconvolution problem. They achieve good performances when the point spread function (PSF) is spatially invariant in the image plane. However, this condition is not always satisfied in real optical systems. We propose a new method for the restoration of images affected by static and anisotropic aberrations using Deep Neural Networks that can be directly applied to sky images. The network is trained using simulated sky images corresponding to the T80-S Telescope optical model, a 80-cm survey imager at Cerro Tololo (Chile), which are synthesized using a Zernike polynomial representation of the optical system. Once trained, the network can be used directly on sky images, outputting a corrected version of the image that has a constant and known PSF across its field of view. The method is to be tested on the T80-S Telescope. We present the method and results on synthetic data. KW - methods: statistical KW - techniques: image processing Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stab3400 SN - 0035-8711 SN - 1365-2966 VL - 510 IS - 3 SP - 4284 EP - 4294 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER -