TY  - JOUR
A1  - Cervantes Villa, Juan Sebastian
A1  - Shprits, Yuri Y.
A1  - Aseev, Nikita
A1  - Allison, Hayley J.
T1  - Quantifying the effects of EMIC wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing in the outer electron radiation belt by means of data assimilation
JF  - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics
N2  - In this study we investigate two distinct loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons by assimilating data from Van Allen Probes A and B and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13 and 15 into a 3-D diffusion model. In particular, we examine the respective contribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing for values of the first adiabatic invariant mu ranging from 300 to 3,000 MeV G(-1). We inspect the innovation vector and perform a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the effect of both processes as a function of various geomagnetic indices, solar wind parameters, and radial distance from the Earth. Our results are in agreement with previous studies that demonstrated the energy dependence of these two mechanisms. We show that EMIC wave scattering tends to dominate loss at lower L shells, and it may amount to between 10%/hr and 30%/hr of the maximum value of phase space density (PSD) over all L shells for fixed first and second adiabatic invariants. On the other hand, magnetopause shadowing is found to deplete electrons across all energies, mostly at higher L shells, resulting in loss from 50%/hr to 70%/hr of the maximum PSD. Nevertheless, during times of enhanced geomagnetic activity, both processes can operate beyond such location and encompass the entire outer radiation belt.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028208
SN  - 2169-9380
SN  - 2169-9402
VL  - 125
IS  - 8
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Warby, Jonathan
A1  - Zu, Fengshuo
A1  - Zeiske, Stefan
A1  - Gutierrez-Partida, Emilio
A1  - Frohloff, Lennart
A1  - Kahmann, Simon
A1  - Frohna, Kyle
A1  - Mosconi, Edoardo
A1  - Radicchi, Eros
A1  - Lang, Felix
A1  - Shah, Sahil
A1  - Pena-Camargo, Francisco
A1  - Hempel, Hannes
A1  - Unold, Thomas
A1  - Koch, Norbert
A1  - Armin, Ardalan
A1  - De Angelis, Filippo
A1  - Stranks, Samuel D.
A1  - Neher, Dieter
A1  - Stolterfoht, Martin
T1  - Understanding performance limiting interfacial recombination in pin Perovskite solar cells
JF  - Advanced energy materials
N2  - Perovskite semiconductors are an attractive option to overcome the limitations of established silicon based photovoltaic (PV) technologies due to their exceptional opto-electronic properties and their successful integration into multijunction cells. However, the performance of single- and multijunction cells is largely limited by significant nonradiative recombination at the perovskite/organic electron transport layer junctions. In this work, the cause of interfacial recombination at the perovskite/C-60 interface is revealed via a combination of photoluminescence, photoelectron spectroscopy, and first-principle numerical simulations. It is found that the most significant contribution to the total C-60-induced recombination loss occurs within the first monolayer of C-60, rather than in the bulk of C-60 or at the perovskite surface. The experiments show that the C-60 molecules act as deep trap states when in direct contact with the perovskite. It is further demonstrated that by reducing the surface coverage of C-60, the radiative efficiency of the bare perovskite layer can be retained. The findings of this work pave the way toward overcoming one of the most critical remaining performance losses in perovskite solar cells.
KW  - C60
KW  - defects
KW  - interface recombination
KW  - loss mechanisms
KW  - perovskites
KW  - solar cells
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/aenm.202103567
SN  - 1614-6832
SN  - 1614-6840
VL  - 12
IS  - 12
PB  - Wiley-VCH
CY  - Weinheim
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Abdalla, Hassan E.
A1  - Adam, R.
A1  - Aharonian, Felix A.
A1  - Benkhali, F. Ait
A1  - Angüner, Ekrem Oǧuzhan
A1  - Arakawa, M.
A1  - Arcaro, C.
A1  - Armand, C.
A1  - Ashkar, H.
A1  - Backes, M.
A1  - Martins, V. Barbosa
A1  - Barnard, M.
A1  - Becherini, Y.
A1  - Berge, D.
A1  - Bernloehr, K.
A1  - Blackwell, R.
A1  - Böttcher, M.
A1  - Boisson, C.
A1  - Bolmont, J.
A1  - Bonnefoy, S.
A1  - Bregeon, J.
A1  - Breuhaus, M.
A1  - Brun, F.
A1  - Brun, P.
A1  - Bryan, M.
A1  - Büchele, M.
A1  - Bulik, T.
A1  - Bylund, T.
A1  - Capasso, M.
A1  - Caroff, S.
A1  - Carosi, A.
A1  - Casanova, Sabrina
A1  - Cerruti, M.
A1  - Chand, T.
A1  - Chandra, S.
A1  - Chen, A.
A1  - Colafrancesco, S.
A1  - Curylo, M.
A1  - Davids, I. D.
A1  - Deil, C.
A1  - Devin, J.
A1  - DeWilt, P.
A1  - Dirson, L.
A1  - Djannati-Ata, A.
A1  - Dmytriiev, A.
A1  - Donath, A.
A1  - Doroshenko, V
A1  - Dyks, J.
A1  - Egberts, Kathrin
A1  - Emery, G.
A1  - Ernenwein, J-P
A1  - Eschbach, S.
A1  - Feijen, K.
A1  - Fegan, S.
A1  - Fiasson, A.
A1  - Fontaine, G.
A1  - Funk, S.
A1  - Füßling, Matthias
A1  - Gabici, S.
A1  - Gallant, Y. A.
A1  - Gate, F.
A1  - Giavitto, G.
A1  - Glawion, D.
A1  - Glicenstein, J. F.
A1  - Gottschall, D.
A1  - Grondin, M-H
A1  - Hahn, J.
A1  - Haupt, M.
A1  - Heinzelmann, G.
A1  - Henri, G.
A1  - Hermann, G.
A1  - Hinton, James Anthony
A1  - Hofmann, W.
A1  - Hoischen, Clemens
A1  - Holch, Tim Lukas
A1  - Holler, M.
A1  - Horns, D.
A1  - Huber, D.
A1  - Iwasaki, H.
A1  - Jamrozy, M.
A1  - Jankowsky, D.
A1  - Jankowsky, F.
A1  - Jardin-Blicq, A.
A1  - Jung-Richardt, I
A1  - Kastendieck, M. A.
A1  - Katarzynski, K.
A1  - Katsuragawa, M.
A1  - Katz, U.
A1  - Khangulyan, D.
A1  - Khelifi, B.
A1  - King, J.
A1  - Klepser, S.
A1  - Kluzniak, W.
A1  - Komin, Nu
A1  - Kosack, K.
A1  - Kostunin, D.
A1  - Kraus, M.
A1  - Lamanna, G.
A1  - Lau, J.
A1  - Lemiere, A.
A1  - Lemoine-Goumard, M.
A1  - Lenain, J-P
A1  - Leser, Eva
A1  - Levy, C.
A1  - Lohse, T.
A1  - Lypova, I
A1  - Mackey, J.
A1  - Majumdar, J.
A1  - Malyshev, D.
A1  - Marandon, V
A1  - Marcowith, Alexandre
A1  - Mares, A.
A1  - Mariaud, C.
A1  - Marti-Devesa, G.
A1  - Marx, R.
A1  - Maurin, G.
A1  - Meintjes, P. J.
A1  - Mitchell, A. M. W.
A1  - Moderski, R.
A1  - Mohamed, M.
A1  - Mohrmann, L.
A1  - Moore, C.
A1  - Moulin, Emmanuel
A1  - Muller, J.
A1  - Murach, T.
A1  - Nakashima, S.
A1  - de Naurois, M.
A1  - Ndiyavala, H.
A1  - Niederwanger, F.
A1  - Niemiec, J.
A1  - Oakes, L.
A1  - Odaka, H.
A1  - Ohm, S.
A1  - Wilhelmi, E. de Ona
A1  - Ostrowski, M.
A1  - Oya, I
A1  - Panter, M.
A1  - Parsons, R. D.
A1  - Perennes, C.
A1  - Petrucci, P-O
A1  - Peyaud, B.
A1  - Piel, Q.
A1  - Pita, S.
A1  - Poireau, V
A1  - Priyana Noel, A.
A1  - Prokhorov, D. A.
A1  - Prokoph, H.
A1  - Pühlhofer, G.
A1  - Punch, M.
A1  - Quirrenbach, A.
A1  - Raab, S.
A1  - Rauth, R.
A1  - Reimer, A.
A1  - Reimer, O.
A1  - Remy, Q.
A1  - Renaud, M.
A1  - Rieger, F.
A1  - Rinchiuso, L.
A1  - Romoli, C.
A1  - Rowell, G.
A1  - Rudak, B.
A1  - Ruiz-Velasco, E.
A1  - Sahakian, V
A1  - Saito, S.
A1  - Sanchez, David M.
A1  - Santangelo, Andrea
A1  - Sasaki, M.
A1  - Schlickeiser, R.
A1  - Schüssler, F.
A1  - Schulz, A.
A1  - Schutte, H.
A1  - Schwanke, U.
A1  - Schwemmer, S.
A1  - Seglar-Arroyo, M.
A1  - Senniappan, M.
A1  - Seyffert, A. S.
A1  - Shafi, N.
A1  - Shiningayamwe, K.
A1  - Simoni, R.
A1  - Sinha, A.
A1  - Sol, H.
A1  - Specovius, A.
A1  - Spir-Jacob, M.
A1  - Stawarz, L.
A1  - Steenkamp, R.
A1  - Stegmann, Christian
A1  - Steppa, Constantin Beverly
A1  - Takahashi, T.
A1  - Tavernier, T.
A1  - Taylor, A. M.
A1  - Terrier, R.
A1  - Tiziani, D.
A1  - Tluczykont, M.
A1  - Trichard, C.
A1  - Tsirou, M.
A1  - Tsuji, N.
A1  - Tuffs, R.
A1  - Uchiyama, Y.
A1  - van Der Walt, D. J.
A1  - van Eldik, C.
A1  - van Rensburg, C.
A1  - van Soelen, B.
A1  - Vasileiadis, G.
A1  - Veh, J.
A1  - Venter, C.
A1  - Vincent, P.
A1  - Vink, J.
A1  - Voisin, F.
A1  - Voelk, H. J.
A1  - Vuillaume, T.
A1  - Wadiasingh, Z.
A1  - Wagner, S. J.
A1  - White, R.
A1  - Wierzcholska, A.
A1  - Yang, R.
A1  - Yoneda, H.
A1  - Zacharias, Michael
A1  - Zanin, R.
A1  - Zdziarski, A. A.
A1  - Zech, Alraune
A1  - Ziegler, A.
A1  - Zorn, J.
A1  - Zywucka, N.
A1  - Meyer, M.
T1  - Constraints on the emission region of 3C 279 during strong flares in 2014 and 2015 through VHE gamma-ray observations with HESS
JF  - Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal
N2  - The flat spectrum radio quasar 3C 279 is known to exhibit pronounced variability in the high-energy (100MeV < E < 100 GeV) gamma-ray band, which is continuously monitored with Fermi-LAT. During two periods of high activity in April 2014 and June 2015 target-of-opportunity observations were undertaken with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) in the very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray domain. While the observation in 2014 provides an upper limit, the observation in 2015 results in a signal with 8 : 7 sigma significance above an energy threshold of 66 GeV. No VHE variability was detected during the 2015 observations. The VHE photon spectrum is soft and described by a power-law index of 4.2 +/- 0.3. The H.E.S.S. data along with a detailed and contemporaneous multiwavelength data set provide constraints on the physical parameters of the emission region. The minimum distance of the emission region from the central black hole was estimated using two plausible geometries of the broad-line region and three potential intrinsic spectra. The emission region is confidently placed at r greater than or similar to 1 : 7 X 1017 cm from the black hole, that is beyond the assumed distance of the broad-line region. Time-dependent leptonic and lepto-hadronic one-zone models were used to describe the evolution of the 2015 flare. Neither model can fully reproduce the observations, despite testing various parameter sets. Furthermore, the H.E.S.S. data were used to derive constraints on Lorentz invariance violation given the large redshift of 3C 279.
KW  - radiation mechanisms: non-thermal
KW  - quasars: individual: 3C 279
KW  - galaxies: active
KW  - relativistic processes
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201935704
SN  - 1432-0746
VL  - 627
PB  - EDP Sciences
CY  - Les Ulis
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Abdalla, Hassan E.
A1  - Collaboration, H. E. S. S.
A1  - Abramowski, A.
A1  - Aharonian, Felix A.
A1  - Benkhali, F. Ait
A1  - Angüner, Ekrem Oǧuzhan
A1  - Arakawa, M.
A1  - Armand, C.
A1  - Arrieta, M.
A1  - Backes, M.
A1  - Balzer, A.
A1  - Barnard, M.
A1  - Becherini, Y.
A1  - Tjus, J. Becker
A1  - Berge, D.
A1  - Bernhard, S.
A1  - Bernloehr, K.
A1  - Blackwell, R.
A1  - Bottcher, M.
A1  - Boisson, C.
A1  - Bolmont, J.
A1  - Bonnefoy, S.
A1  - Bordas, Pol
A1  - Bregeon, J.
A1  - Brun, F.
A1  - Brun, P.
A1  - Bryan, M.
A1  - Buechele, M.
A1  - Bulik, T.
A1  - Capasso, M.
A1  - Caroff, S.
A1  - Carosi, A.
A1  - Casanova, Sabrina
A1  - Cerruti, M.
A1  - Chakraborty, N.
A1  - Chaves, R. C. G.
A1  - Chen, A.
A1  - Chevalier, J.
A1  - Colafrancesco, S.
A1  - Condon, B.
A1  - Conrad, J.
A1  - Davids, I. D.
A1  - Decock, J.
A1  - Deil, C.
A1  - Devin, J.
A1  - deWilt, P.
A1  - Dirson, L.
A1  - Djannati-Atai, A.
A1  - Donath, A.
A1  - Dyks, J.
A1  - Edwards, T.
A1  - Egberts, Kathrin
A1  - Emery, G.
A1  - Ernenwein, J. -P.
A1  - Eschbach, S.
A1  - Farnier, C.
A1  - Fegan, S.
A1  - Fernandes, M. V.
A1  - Fiasson, A.
A1  - Fontaine, G.
A1  - Funk, S.
A1  - Fuessling, M.
A1  - Gabici, S.
A1  - Gallant, Y. A.
A1  - Garrigoux, T.
A1  - Gate, F.
A1  - Giavitto, G.
A1  - Glawion, D.
A1  - Glicenstein, J. F.
A1  - Gottschall, D.
A1  - Grondin, M. -H.
A1  - Hahn, J.
A1  - Haupt, M.
A1  - Hawkes, J.
A1  - Heinzelmann, G.
A1  - Henri, G.
A1  - Hermann, G.
A1  - Hinton, J. A.
A1  - Hofmann, W.
A1  - Hoischen, Clemens
A1  - Holch, T. L.
A1  - Holler, M.
A1  - Horns, D.
A1  - Ivascenko, A.
A1  - Iwasaki, H.
A1  - Jacholkowska, A.
A1  - Jamrozy, M.
A1  - Jankowsky, D.
A1  - Jankowsky, F.
A1  - Jingo, M.
A1  - Jouvin, L.
A1  - Jung-Richardt, I.
A1  - Kastendieck, M. A.
A1  - Katarzynski, K.
A1  - Katsuragawa, M.
A1  - Katz, U.
A1  - Kerszberg, D.
A1  - Khangulyan, D.
A1  - Khelifi, B.
A1  - King, J.
A1  - Klepser, S.
A1  - Klochkov, D.
A1  - Kluzniak, W.
A1  - Komin, Nu.
A1  - Kosack, K.
A1  - Krakau, S.
A1  - Kraus, M.
A1  - Kruger, P. P.
A1  - Laffon, H.
A1  - Lamanna, G.
A1  - Lau, J.
A1  - Lefaucheur, J.
A1  - Lemiere, A.
A1  - Lemoine-Goumard, M.
A1  - Lenain, J. -P.
A1  - Leser, Eva
A1  - Lohse, T.
A1  - Lorentz, M.
A1  - Liu, R.
A1  - Lopez-Coto, R.
A1  - Lypova, I.
A1  - Malyshev, D.
A1  - Marandon, V.
A1  - Marcowith, Alexandre
A1  - Mariaud, C.
A1  - Marx, R.
A1  - Maurin, G.
A1  - Maxted, N.
A1  - Mayer, M.
A1  - Meintjes, P. J.
A1  - Meyer, M.
A1  - Mitchell, A. M. W.
A1  - Moderski, R.
A1  - Mohamed, M.
A1  - Mohrmann, L.
A1  - Mora, K.
A1  - Moulin, Emmanuel
A1  - Murach, T.
A1  - Nakashima, S.
A1  - de Naurois, M.
A1  - Ndiyavala, H.
A1  - Niederwanger, F.
A1  - Niemiec, J.
A1  - Oakes, L.
A1  - Odaka, H.
A1  - Ohm, S.
A1  - Ostrowski, M.
A1  - Oya, I.
A1  - Padovani, M.
A1  - Panter, M.
A1  - Parsons, R. D.
A1  - Pekeur, N. W.
A1  - Pelletier, G.
A1  - Perennes, C.
A1  - Petrucci, P. -O.
A1  - Peyaud, B.
A1  - Piel, Q.
A1  - Pita, S.
A1  - Poireau, V.
A1  - Prokhorov, D. A.
A1  - Prokoph, H.
A1  - Puehlhofer, G.
A1  - Punch, M.
A1  - Quirrenbach, A.
A1  - Raab, S.
A1  - Rauth, R.
A1  - Reimer, A.
A1  - Reimer, O.
A1  - Renaud, M.
A1  - de los Reyes, R.
A1  - Rieger, F.
A1  - Rinchiuso, L.
A1  - Romoli, C.
A1  - Rowell, G.
A1  - Rudak, B.
A1  - Rulten, C. B.
A1  - Sahakian, V.
A1  - Saito, S.
A1  - Sanchez, D. A.
A1  - Santangelo, Andrea
A1  - Sasaki, M.
A1  - Schlickeiser, R.
A1  - Schussler, F.
A1  - Schulz, A.
A1  - Schwanke, U.
A1  - Schwemmer, S.
A1  - Seglar-Arroyo, M.
A1  - Seyffert, A. S.
A1  - Shafi, N.
A1  - Shilon, I.
A1  - Shiningayamwe, K.
A1  - Simoni, R.
A1  - Sol, H.
A1  - Spanier, F.
A1  - Spir-Jacob, M.
A1  - Stawarz, L.
A1  - Steenkamp, R.
A1  - Stegmann, Christian
A1  - Steppa, Constantin Beverly
A1  - Sushch, I.
A1  - Takahashi, T.
A1  - Tavernet, J. -P.
A1  - Tavernier, T.
A1  - Taylor, A. M.
A1  - Terrier, R.
A1  - Tibaldo, L.
A1  - Tiziani, D.
A1  - Tluczykont, M.
A1  - Trichard, C.
A1  - Tsirou, M.
A1  - Tsuji, N.
A1  - Tuffs, R.
A1  - Uchiyama, Y.
A1  - van der Walt, D. J.
A1  - van Eldik, C.
A1  - van Rensburg, C.
A1  - van Soelen, B.
A1  - Vasileiadis, G.
A1  - Veh, J.
A1  - Venter, C.
A1  - Viana, A.
A1  - Vincent, P.
A1  - Vink, J.
A1  - Voisin, F.
A1  - Voelk, H. J.
A1  - Vuillaume, T.
A1  - Wadiasingh, Z.
A1  - Wagner, S. J.
A1  - Wagner, P.
A1  - Wagner, R. M.
A1  - White, R.
A1  - Wierzcholska, A.
A1  - Willmann, P.
A1  - Woernlein, A.
A1  - Wouters, D.
A1  - Yang, R.
A1  - Zaborov, D.
A1  - Zacharias, M.
A1  - Zanin, R.
A1  - Zdziarski, A. A.
A1  - Zech, Alraune
A1  - Zefi, F.
A1  - Ziegler, A.
A1  - Zorn, J.
A1  - Zywucka, N.
T1  - Detection of variable VHE gamma-ray emission from the extra-galactic gamma-ray binary LMC P3
JF  - Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal
N2  - Context. Recently, the high-energy (HE, 0.1-100 GeV) gamma-ray emission from the object LMC P3 in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has been discovered to be modulated with a 10.3-day period, making it the first extra-galactic gamma-ray binary. Aims. This work aims at the detection of very-high-energy (VHE, >100 GeV) gamma-ray emission and the search for modulation of the VHE signal with the orbital period of the binary system. Methods. LMC P3 has been observed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.); the acceptance-corrected exposure time is 100 h. The data set has been folded with the known orbital period of the system in order to test for variability of the emission. Results. VHE gamma-ray emission is detected with a statistical significance of 6.4 sigma. The data clearly show variability which is phase-locked to the orbital period of the system. Periodicity cannot be deduced from the H.E.S.S. data set alone. The orbit-averaged luminosity in the 1-10 TeV energy range is (1.4 +/- 0.2) x 10(35) erg s(-1). A luminosity of (5 +/- 1) x 10(35) erg s(-1) is reached during 20% of the orbit. HE and VHE gamma-ray emissions are anti-correlated. LMC P3 is the most luminous gamma-ray binary known so far.
KW  - gamma rays: stars
KW  - binaries: general
KW  - stars: massive
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201732426
SN  - 1432-0746
VL  - 610
PB  - EDP Sciences
CY  - Les Ulis
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Schwope, Axel
A1  - Pires, Adriana M.
A1  - Kurpas, Jan
A1  - Doroshenko, Victor
A1  - Suleimanov, Valery F.
A1  - Freyberg, Michael
A1  - Becker, Werner
A1  - Dennerl, Konrad
A1  - Haberl, Frank
A1  - Lamer, Georg
A1  - Maitra, Chandreyee
A1  - Potekhin, Alexander Y.
A1  - Ramos-Ceja, Miriam E.
A1  - Santangelo, Andrea
A1  - Traulsen, Iris
A1  - Werner, Klaus
T1  - Phase-resolved X-ray spectroscopy of PSR B0656+14 with SRG/eROSITA and XMM-Newton
JF  - Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal
N2  - We present a detailed spectroscopic and timing analysis of X-ray observations of the bright pulsar PSR B0656+14. The observations were obtained simultaneously with eROSITA and XMM-Newton during the calibration and performance verification phase of the Spektrum-Roentgen-Gamma mission (SRG). The analysis of the 100 ks deep observation of eROSITA is supported by archival observations of the source, including XMM-Newton, NuSTAR, and NICER. Using XMM-Newton and NICER, we first established an X-ray ephemeris for the time interval 2015 to 2020, which connects all X-ray observations in this period without cycle count alias and phase shifts. The mean eROSITA spectrum clearly reveals an absorption feature originating from the star at 570 eV with a Gaussian sigma of about 70 eV that was tentatively identified in a previous long XMM-Newton observation. A second previously discussed absorption feature occurs at 260-265 eV and is described here as an absorption edge. It could be of atmospheric or of instrumental origin. These absorption features are superposed on various emission components that are phenomenologically described here as the sum of hot (120 eV) and cold (65 eV) blackbody components, both of photospheric origin, and a power law with photon index Gamma = 2 from the magnetosphere. We created energy-dependent light curves and phase-resolved spectra with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The phase-resolved spectroscopy reveals that the Gaussian absorption line at 570 eV is clearly present throughout similar to 60% of the spin cycle, but it is otherwise undetected. Likewise, its parameters were found to be dependent on phase. The visibility of the line strength coincides in phase with the maximum flux of the hot blackbody. If the line originates from the stellar surface, it nevertheless likely originates from a different location than the hot polar cap. We also present three families of model atmospheres: a magnetized atmosphere, a condensed surface, and a mixed model. They were applied to the mean observed spectrum, whose continuum fit the observed data well. The atmosphere model, however, predicts distances that are too short. For the mixed model, the Gaussian absorption may be interpreted as proton cyclotron absorption in a field as high as 10(14) G, which is significantly higher than the field derived from the moderate observed spin-down.
KW  - stars: neutron
KW  - X-rays: stars
KW  - pulsars: individual: PSR B0656+14
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202141105
SN  - 0004-6361
SN  - 1432-0746
VL  - 661
PB  - EDP Sciences
CY  - Les Ulis
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ye, Fangyuan
A1  - Zhang, Shuo
A1  - Warby, Jonathan
A1  - Wu, Jiawei
A1  - Gutierrez-Partida, Emilio
A1  - Lang, Felix
A1  - Shah, Sahil
A1  - Saglamkaya, Elifnaz
A1  - Sun, Bowen
A1  - Zu, Fengshuo
A1  - Shoai, Safa
A1  - Wang, Haifeng
A1  - Stiller, Burkhard
A1  - Neher, Dieter
A1  - Zhu, Wei-Hong
A1  - Stolterfoht, Martin
A1  - Wu, Yongzhen
T1  - Overcoming C₆₀-induced interfacial recombination in inverted perovskite solar cells by electron-transporting carborane
JF  - Nature Communications
N2  - Inverted perovskite solar cells still suffer from significant non-radiative recombination losses at the perovskite surface and across the perovskite/C₆₀ interface, limiting the future development of perovskite-based single- and multi-junction photovoltaics. Therefore, more effective inter- or transport layers are urgently required. To tackle these recombination losses, we introduce ortho-carborane as an interlayer material that has a spherical molecular structure and a three-dimensional aromaticity. Based on a variety of experimental techniques, we show that ortho-carborane decorated with phenylamino groups effectively passivates the perovskite surface and essentially eliminates the non-radiative recombination loss across the perovskite/C₆₀ interface with high thermal stability. We further demonstrate the potential of carborane as an electron transport material, facilitating electron extraction while blocking holes from the interface. The resulting inverted perovskite solar cells deliver a power conversion efficiency of over 23% with a low non-radiative voltage loss of 110 mV, and retain >97% of the initial efficiency after 400 h of maximum power point tracking. Overall, the designed carborane based interlayer simultaneously enables passivation, electron-transport and hole-blocking and paves the way toward more efficient and stable perovskite solar cells.
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34203-x
SN  - 2041-1723
VL  - 13
IS  - 1
PB  - Springer Nature
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Omel'chenko, Oleh
A1  - Ocampo-Espindola, Jorge Luis
A1  - Kiss, István Z.
T1  - Asymmetry-induced isolated fully synchronized state in coupled oscillator populations
JF  - Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics
N2  - A symmetry-breaking mechanism is investigated that creates bistability between fully and partially synchronized states in oscillator networks. Two populations of oscillators with unimodal frequency distribution and different amplitudes, in the presence of weak global coupling, are shown to simplify to a modular network with asymmetrical coupling. With increasing the coupling strength, a synchronization transition is observed with an isolated fully synchronized state. The results are interpreted theoretically in the thermodynamic limit and confirmed in experiments with chemical oscillators.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.104.L022202
SN  - 2470-0045
SN  - 2470-0053
VL  - 104
IS  - 2
PB  - American Physical Society
CY  - Melville, NY
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Meyer, Dominique M.-A.
A1  - Pohl, Martin
A1  - Petrov, Miroslav
A1  - Egberts, Kathrin
T1  - Mixing of materials in magnetized core-collapse supernova remnants
JF  - Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
N2  - Core-collapse supernova remnants are structures of the interstellar medium (ISM) left behind the explosive death of most massive stars ( ?40 M-?). Since they result in the expansion of the supernova shock wave into the gaseous environment shaped by the star's wind history, their morphology constitutes an insight into the past evolution of their progenitor star. Particularly, fast-mo ving massiv e stars can produce asymmetric core-collapse superno va remnants. We inv estigate the mixing of materials in core-collapse supernova remnants generated by a moving massive 35 M-? star, in a magnetized ISM. Stellar rotation and the wind magnetic field are time-dependently included into the models which follow the entire evolution of the stellar surroundings from the zero-age main-sequence to 80 kyr after the supernova explosion. It is found that very little main-sequence material is present in remnants from moving stars, that the Wolf-Rayet wind mixes very efficiently within the 10 kyr after the explosion, while the red supergiant material is still unmixed by 30 per cent within 50 kyr after the supernova. Our results indicate that the faster the stellar motion, the more complex the internal organization of the supernova remnant and the more ef fecti ve the mixing of ejecta therein. In contrast, the mixing of stellar wind material is only weakly affected by progenitor motion, if at all.
KW  - ISM : supernova remnants
KW  - (magnetohydrodynamics) MHD
KW  - stars evolution
KW  - stars: massive
Y1  - 2023
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stad906
SN  - 0035-8711
SN  - 1365-2966
VL  - 521
IS  - 4
SP  - 5354
EP  - 5371
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - THES
A1  - Schlemm, Tanja
T1  - The marine ice cliff instability of the Antarctic ice sheet
T1  - Die marine Eisklippeninstabilität des antarktischen Eisschildes
BT  - a theory of mélange-buttressed cliff calving and its application in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model
BT  - eine Theorie des Mélange-gebremsten Klippenkalbens und ihre Anwendung im Parallel Ice Sheet Model
N2  - The Antarctic ice sheet is the largest freshwater reservoir worldwide. If it were to melt completely, global sea levels would rise by about 58 m. Calculation of projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise under global warming conditions is an ongoing effort which
yields large ranges in predictions. Among the reasons for this are uncertainties related to the physics of ice sheet modeling. These
uncertainties include two processes that could lead to runaway ice retreat: the Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), which causes rapid grounding line retreat on retrograde bedrock, and the Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI), in which tall ice cliffs become unstable and calve off, exposing even taller ice cliffs.
In my thesis, I investigated both marine instabilities (MISI and MICI) using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), with a focus on MICI.
N2  - Der antarktische Eisschild ist das größte Süßwasserreservoir der Welt. Würde er vollständig schmelzen, würde der globale Meeresspiegel um etwa 58 m ansteigen. Die Ermittlung von Prognosen über den Beitrag der Antarktis zum Anstieg des Meeresspiegels infolge der globalen Erwärmung ist ein fortlaufender Prozess, der große Unterschiede in den Vorhersagen zur Folge hat. Einer der Gründe dafür sind Ungewissheiten im Zusammenhang mit der Physik der Eisschildmodellierung. Zu diesen Unsicherheiten gehören zwei Prozesse, die zu einem unkontrollierten Eisrückzug führen könnten:
die Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), die zu einem schnellen Rückzug der Grundlinie auf rückläufigem Grundgestein führt, und die Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI), bei der hohe Eisklippen instabil werden und abkalben, wodurch noch höhere Eisklippen freigelegt werden.
In meiner Dissertation untersuchte ich beide marinen Instabilitäten (MISI und MICI) mit Hilfe des Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), wobei der Schwerpunkt auf MICI lag.
KW  - Antarctica
KW  - ice sheet modelling
KW  - iceberg calving
KW  - Antarktis
KW  - Eisschildmodellierung
KW  - Eisbergkalbung
Y1  - 2022
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-586333
ER  - 
TY  - THES
A1  - Kuhla, Kilian
T1  - Impact, distribution, and adaptation
T1  - Auswirkung, Verteilung und Anpassung
BT  - how weather extremes threaten the economic network
BT  - wie Wetterextreme das ökonomische Netzwerk bedrohen
N2  - Weather extremes pose a persistent threat to society on multiple layers. Besides an average of ~37,000 deaths per year, climate-related disasters cause destroyed properties and impaired economic activities, eroding people's livelihoods and prosperity. While global temperature rises – caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions – the direct impacts of climatic extreme events increase and will further intensify without proper adaptation measures. Additionally, weather extremes do not only have local direct effects. Resulting economic repercussions can propagate either upstream or downstream along trade chains causing indirect effects. One approach to analyze these indirect effects within the complex global supply network is the agent-based model Acclimate. Using and extending this loss-propagation model, I focus in this thesis on three aspects of the relation between weather extremes and economic repercussions.

First, extreme weather events cause direct impacts on local economic performance. I compute daily local direct output loss time series of heat stress, river floods, tropical cyclones, and their consecutive occurrence using (near-future) climate projection ensembles. These regional impacts are estimated based on physical drivers and local productivity distribution. Direct effects of the aforementioned disaster categories are widely heterogeneous concerning regional and temporal distribution. As well, their intensity changes differently under future warming. Focusing on the hurricane-impacted capital, I find that long-term growth losses increase with higher heterogeneity of a shock ensemble. 

Second, repercussions are sectorally and regionally distributed via economic ripples within the trading network, causing higher-order effects. I use Acclimate to identify three phases of those economic ripples. Furthermore, I compute indirect impacts and analyze overall regional and global production and consumption changes. Regarding heat stress, global consumer losses double while direct output losses increase by a factor 1.5 between 2000 – 2039. In my research I identify the effect of economic ripple resonance and introduce it to climate impact research. This effect occurs if economic ripples of consecutive disasters overlap, which increases economic responses such as an enhancement of consumption losses. These loss enhancements can even be more amplified with increasing direct output losses, e.g. caused by climate crises.  

Transport disruptions can cause economic repercussions as well. For this, I extend the model Acclimate with a geographical transportation route and expand the decision horizon of economic agents. Using this, I show that policy-induced sudden trade restrictions (e.g. a no-deal Brexit) can significantly reduce the longer-term economic prosperity of affected regions. Analyses of transportation disruptions in typhoon seasons indicate that severely affected regions must reduce production as demand falls during a storm. Substituting suppliers may compensate for fluctuations at the beginning of the storm, which fails for prolonged disruptions.

Third, possible coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies arise from direct and indirect economic responses to weather extremes. Analyzing annual trade changes due to typhoon-induced transport disruptions depict that overall exports rise. This trade resilience increases with higher network node diversification. Further, my research shows that a basic insurance scheme may diminish hurricane-induced long-term growth losses due to faster reconstruction in disasters aftermaths. I find that insurance coverage could be an economically reasonable coping scheme towards higher losses caused by the climate crisis. Indirect effects within the global economic network from weather extremes indicate further adaptation possibilities. For one, diversifying linkages reduce the hazard of sharp price increases. Next to this, close economic interconnections with regions that do not share the same extreme weather season can be economically beneficial in the medium run. Furthermore, economic ripple resonance effects should be considered while computing costs. Overall, an increase in local adaptation measures reduces economic ripples within the trade network and possible losses elsewhere. In conclusion, adaptation measures are necessary and potential present, but it seems rather not possible to avoid all direct or indirect losses.

As I show in this thesis, dynamical modeling gives valuable insights into how direct and indirect economic impacts arise from different categories of weather extremes. Further, it highlights the importance of resolving individual extremes and reflecting amplifying effects caused by incomplete recovery or consecutive disasters.
N2  - Wetterextreme stellen für die Gesellschaft eine anhaltende Bedrohung auf mehreren Ebenen dar. Neben durchschnittlich ~37.000 Todesfällen pro Jahr verursachen meteorologische Katastrophen Eigentumsschäden und Wirtschaftsbeeinträchtigungen, wodurch die Lebensgrundlagen und der Wohlstand der Menschen untergraben werden. Während die globale Temperatur – verursacht durch anthropogene Treibhausgasemissionen – ansteigt, nehmen die direkten Auswirkungen klimatischer Extremereignisse zu und werden sich ohne geeignete Anpassungsmaßnahmen weiter verstärken. 
Hinzu kommt, dass Wetterextreme nicht nur lokal direkte Schäden anrichten, sondern sich wetterbedingte wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen auch entlang der Handelsketten ausbreiten und so indirekte Effekte nach sich ziehen. Ein Ansatz zur Analyse dieser indirekten Auswirkungen innerhalb des komplexen globalen Versorgungsnetzes ist das agentenbasierte Modell Acclimate. 
In meiner Dissertation verwende und erweitere ich dieses Schadenspropagationsmodell, um drei Aspekte der Beziehung zwischen Wetterextremen und wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen zu untersuchen.

Erstens verursachen extreme Wetterereignisse direkte Schäden in lokaler Wirtschaftsleistung. Die regionalen Auswirkungen werden auf der Grundlage von physikalischen Faktoren und lokalen Produktivitätsverteilungen kalkuliert. Ich berechne tägliche Zeitreihen lokaler Produktionsverluste durch Hitzestress, Überschwemmungen, tropische Wirbelstürme und deren konsekutives Auftreten unter Verwendung von Klimaprojektionsensembles. Die direkten Auswirkungen der oben genannten Katastrophenkategorien sind sehr heterogen in Bezug auf die regionale und zeitliche Verteilung. Ebenso ändert sich ihre Stärke unterschiedlich unter zukünftiger Erwärmung. Meine Forschungsergebnisse zeigen, dass Kapitalstock, welcher von Wirbelstürmen beschädigt ist, langfristige Wachstumsverluste verursacht. Dabei nehmen die Verluste zu, wenn die Heterogenität der Schocks steigt.

Zweitens werden die wetterbedingten Auswirkungen durch wirtschaftliche Wellen innerhalb des Handelsnetzes auf verschiedene Wirtschaftssektoren und Regionen verteilt. In meiner Dissertation, untersuche ich die wirtschaftlichen Wellen mittels Acclimate und mache dabei drei Wellenphasen aus. Darüber hinaus berechne ich indirekte Auswirkungen und analysiere die regionalen und globalen Produktionsveränderungen sowie die Auswirkungen auf Konsumierende. Für letztere verdoppeln sich zwischen 2000 und 2039 die weltweiten Verluste durch Hitzestress, während im selben Zeitraum die direkten Produktionsverluste nur um den Faktor 1.5 steigen. Im Zuge meiner Forschung identifiziere ich den Effekt der ökonomischen Wellenresonanz und führe ihn in die Klimafolgenforschung ein. Dieser Effekt tritt auf, wenn sich die ökonomischen Wellen aufeinanderfolgender Katastrophen überlagern, was wirtschaftliche Reaktionen intensiviert wie beispielsweise eine Steigerung der Konsumverluste. Diese Dynamik der Verluste kann durch zunehmende direkte Produktionsverluste, hervorgerufen etwa durch den Klimawandel, noch verstärkt werden. 

Auch Handelsunterbrechungen können wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen haben. Um diese zu berechnen, erweitere ich das Modell Acclimate um ein geografisches Transportnetzwerk und weite den Entscheidungshorizont der Wirtschaftsakteure aus. Politisch bedingte plötzliche Handelsbeschränkungen (z. B. ein No-Deal-Brexit) können den längerfristigen wirtschaftlichen Wohlstand der betroffenen Regionen erheblich verringern. Analysen von Transportunterbrechungen in der Taifunsaison zeigen, dass stark betroffene Regionen ihre Produktionen reduzieren müssen, wenn die Nachfrage während eines Sturms sinkt. Zu Beginn eines Sturms können Handelsschwankungen durch alternative Lieferanten ausgeglichen werden, was jedoch bei längeren Unterbrechungen nicht mehr gelingt.

Drittens ergeben sich mögliche Anpassungsmechanismen und -strategien aus direkten und indirekten wirtschaftlichen Reaktionen auf Wetterextreme. Die Analyse der jährlichen Handelsveränderungen in der Taifunsaison zeigt, dass Exporte insgesamt zunehmen. Diese Widerstandsfähigkeit des Handels wächst mit einer höheren Diversifizierung der Handelspartner. Weiterhin zeigt meine Forschung an Wirtschaftswachstumsmodellen, dass ein Versicherungssystem langfristige Wachstumsverluste, verursacht durch Tropenstürme, durch schnelleren Wiederaufbau verringern kann. Ich komme zu dem Schluss, dass ein Versicherungsschutz eine wirtschaftlich sinnvolle Anpassungsstrategie gegenüber höheren Schäden durch die Klimakrise sein kann. Ebenso weisen indirekte Auswirkungen von Wetterextremen innerhalb des globalen Wirtschaftsnetzes auf weitere Anpassungsmöglichkeiten hin. Zunächst vermindert eine diversifizierte Vernetzung die Gefahr eines starken Preisanstiegs. Ebenso kann eine enge wirtschaftliche Verflechtung von Regionen, die nicht dieselbe Unwettersaison haben, mittelfristig wirtschaftlich vorteilhaft sein. Weiterhin sollten bei der Berechnung der Kosten wirtschaftliche Resonanzeffekte berücksichtigt werden. Eine Verstärkung der lokalen Anpassungsmaßnahmen verringert die Amplitude ökonomischer Wellen und damit auch potentielle Verluste in anderen Regionen. Insgesamt sind Anpassungsmaßnahmen notwendig, aber es scheint trotz dieser nicht möglich zu sein, alle direkten oder indirekten Verluste zu vermeiden.

Wie ich in meiner Arbeit darlege, gibt die dynamische Modellierung wertvolle Einblicke in die Art und Weise, wie direkte und indirekte wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen durch verschiedene Wetterextreme entstehen. Darüber hinaus wird deutlich, wie wichtig es ist, einzelne Extremereignisse aufzulösen und Verstärkungseffekte zu berücksichtigen, die durch unvollständigen Wiederaufbau oder aufeinanderfolgende Katastrophen verursacht werden.
KW  - climate change
KW  - weather extremes
KW  - macro-economic modelling
KW  - network theory
KW  - economic network
KW  - Klimawandel
KW  - Wetterextreme
KW  - Makroökonomische Modellierung
KW  - Netzwerktheorie
KW  - Ökonomisches Netzwerk
Y1  - 2022
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-552668
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Seroussi, Helene
A1  - Nowicki, Sophie
A1  - Simon, Erika
A1  - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Brondex, Julien
A1  - Cornford, Stephen
A1  - Dumas, Christophe
A1  - Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien
A1  - Goelzer, Heiko
A1  - Golledge, Nicholas R.
A1  - Gregory, Jonathan M.
A1  - Greve, Ralf
A1  - Hoffman, Matthew J.
A1  - Humbert, Angelika
A1  - Huybrechts, Philippe
A1  - Kleiner, Thomas
A1  - Larourl, Eric
A1  - Leguy, Gunter
A1  - Lipscomb, William H.
A1  - Lowry, Daniel
A1  - Mengel, Matthias
A1  - Morlighem, Mathieu
A1  - Pattyn, Frank
A1  - Payne, Anthony J.
A1  - Pollard, David
A1  - Price, Stephen F.
A1  - Quiquet, Aurelien
A1  - Reerink, Thomas J.
A1  - Reese, Ronja
A1  - Rodehacke, Christian B.
A1  - Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne
A1  - Shepherd, Andrew
A1  - Sun, Sainan
A1  - Sutter, Johannes
A1  - Van Breedam, Jonas
A1  - van de Wal, Roderik S. W.
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Zhang, Tong
T1  - initMIP-Antarctica
BT  - an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMlP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMlP-Greenland, initMlP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMlP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 13
IS  - 5
SP  - 1441
EP  - 1471
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Reese, Ronja
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Mengel, Matthias
A1  - Asay-Davis, Xylar
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
T1  - Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Ocean-induced melting below ice shelves is one of the dominant drivers for mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet at present. An appropriate representation of sub-shelf melt rates is therefore essential for model simulations of marine-based ice sheet evolution. Continental-scale ice sheet models often rely on simple melt-parameterizations, in particular for long-term simulations, when fully coupled ice-ocean interaction becomes computationally too expensive. Such parameterizations can account for the influence of the local depth of the ice-shelf draft or its slope on melting. However, they do not capture the effect of ocean circulation underneath the ice shelf. Here we present the Potsdam Ice-shelf Cavity mOdel (PICO), which simulates the vertical overturning circulation in ice-shelf cavities and thus enables the computation of sub-shelf melt rates consistent with this circulation. PICO is based on an ocean box model that coarsely resolves ice shelf cavities and uses a boundary layer melt formulation. We implement it as a module of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) and evaluate its performance under present-day conditions of the Southern Ocean. We identify a set of parameters that yield two-dimensional melt rate fields that qualitatively reproduce the typical pattern of comparably high melting near the grounding line and lower melting or refreezing towards the calving front. PICO captures the wide range of melt rates observed for Antarctic ice shelves, with an average of about 0.1 ma(-1) for cold sub-shelf cavities, for example, underneath Ross or Ronne ice shelves, to 16 ma(-1) for warm cavities such as in the Amundsen Sea region. This makes PICO a computationally feasible and more physical alternative to melt parameterizations purely based on ice draft geometry.
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 12
IS  - 6
SP  - 1969
EP  - 1985
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Steffen, Will
A1  - Röckstrom, Johan
A1  - Richardson, Katherine
A1  - Lenton, Timothy M.
A1  - Folke, Carl
A1  - Liverman, Diana
A1  - Summerhayes, Colin P.
A1  - Barnosky, Anthony D.
A1  - Cornell, Sarah E.
A1  - Crucifix, Michel
A1  - Donges, Jonathan
A1  - Fetzer, Ingo
A1  - Lade, Steven J.
A1  - Scheffer, Marten
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
T1  - Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
JF  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
N2  - We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
KW  - Earth System trajectories
KW  - climate change
KW  - Anthropocene
KW  - biosphere feedbacks
KW  - tipping elements
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115
SN  - 0027-8424
VL  - 115
IS  - 33
SP  - 8252
EP  - 8259
PB  - National Acad. of Sciences
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Reese, Ronja
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Gudmundsson, Gudmundur Hilmar
T1  - Grounding-line flux formula applied as a flux condition in numerical simulations fails for buttressed Antarctic ice streams
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Currently, several large-scale ice-flow models impose a condition on ice flux across grounding lines using an analytically motivated parameterisation of grounding-line flux. It has been suggested that employing this analytical expression alleviates the need for highly resolved computational domains around grounding lines of marine ice sheets. While the analytical flux formula is expected to be accurate in an unbuttressed flow-line setting, its validity has hitherto not been assessed for complex and realistic geometries such as those of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here the accuracy of this analytical flux formula is tested against an optimised ice flow model that uses a highly resolved computational mesh around the Antarctic grounding lines. We find that when applied to the Antarctic Ice Sheet the analytical expression provides inaccurate estimates of ice fluxes for almost all grounding lines. Furthermore, in many instances direct application of the analytical formula gives rise to unphysical complex-valued ice fluxes. We conclude that grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are, in general, too highly buttressed for the analytical parameterisation to be of practical value for the calculation of grounding-line fluxes.
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 12
IS  - 10
SP  - 3229
EP  - 3242
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ciemer, Catrin
A1  - Rehm, Lars
A1  - Kurths, Jürgen
A1  - Donner, Reik Volker
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Boers, Niklas
T1  - An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures
JF  - Environmental Research Letters
N2  - Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
KW  - complex networks
KW  - droughts
KW  - prediction
KW  - Amazon rainforest
Y1  - 2019
VL  - 15
IS  - 9
PB  - IOP - Institute of Physics Publishing
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Seroussi, Helene
A1  - Nowicki, Sophie
A1  - Payne, Antony J.
A1  - Goelzer, Heiko
A1  - Lipscomb, William H.
A1  - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
A1  - Agosta, Cecile
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Asay-Davis, Xylar
A1  - Barthel, Alice
A1  - Calov, Reinhard
A1  - Cullather, Richard
A1  - Dumas, Christophe
A1  - Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.
A1  - Gladstone, Rupert
A1  - Golledge, Nicholas R.
A1  - Gregory, Jonathan M.
A1  - Greve, Ralf
A1  - Hattermann, Tore
A1  - Hoffman, Matthew J.
A1  - Humbert, Angelika
A1  - Huybrechts, Philippe
A1  - Jourdain, Nicolas C.
A1  - Kleiner, Thomas
A1  - Larour, Eric
A1  - Leguy, Gunter R.
A1  - Lowry, Daniel P.
A1  - Little, Chistopher M.
A1  - Morlighem, Mathieu
A1  - Pattyn, Frank
A1  - Pelle, Tyler
A1  - Price, Stephen F.
A1  - Quiquet, Aurelien
A1  - Reese, Ronja
A1  - Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne
A1  - Shepherd, Andrew
A1  - Simon, Erika
A1  - Smith, Robin S.
A1  - Straneo, Fiammetta
A1  - Sun, Sainan
A1  - Trusel, Luke D.
A1  - Van Breedam, Jonas
A1  - van de Wal, Roderik S. W.
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Zhao, Chen
A1  - Zhang, Tong
A1  - Zwinger, Thomas
T1  - ISMIP6 Antarctica
BT  - a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 14
IS  - 9
SP  - 3033
EP  - 3070
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Reese, Ronja
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Seroussi, Helene
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
T1  - The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects - initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 - conducted with a range of ice sheet models, the projected 21st century sea level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1:4 to 4:0 cm of sea level equivalent in simulations in which ISMIP6 ocean forcing drives the PICO ocean box model where parameter tuning leads to a comparably low sub-shelf melt sensitivity and in which no surface forcing is applied. This is opposed to a likely range of 9:1 to 35:8 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity, even though both projects use forcing from climate models and melt rates are calibrated with previous oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014 and one starting from a steady state, we show that while differences between the ice sheet configurations in 2015 seem marginal at first sight, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by 5% to 50 %. Hindcasting past ice sheet changes with numerical models would thus provide valuable tools to better constrain projections. Our results emphasize that the uncertainty that arises from the forcing is of the same order of magnitude as the ice dynamic response for future sea level projections.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 14
IS  - 9
SP  - 3097
EP  - 3110
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zeitz, Maria
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
T1  - Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Acceleration of the flow of ice drives mass losses in both the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow, melt, and calving. While major advancements have been made by the ice-sheet modeling community in addressing several of the related uncertainties, the flow law, which is at the center of most process-based ice-sheet models, is not in the focus of the current scientific debate. However, recent studies show that the flow law parameters are highly uncertain and might be different from the widely accepted standard values. Here, we use an idealized flow-line setup to investigate how these uncertainties in the flow law translate into uncertainties in flow-driven mass loss. In order to disentangle the effect of future warming on the ice flow from other effects, we perform a suite of experiments with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), deliberately excluding changes in the surface mass balance. We find that changes in the flow parameters within the observed range can lead up to a doubling of the flow-driven mass loss within the first centuries of warming, compared to standard parameters. The spread of ice loss due to the uncertainty in flow parameters is on the same order of magnitude as the increase in mass loss due to surface warming. While this study focuses on an idealized flow-line geometry, it is likely that this uncertainty carries over to realistic three-dimensional simulations of Greenland and Antarctica.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 14
IS  - 10
SP  - 3537
EP  - 3550
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Reese, Ronja
A1  - Gudmundsson, Gudmundur Hilmar
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
T1  - The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica
JF  - Nature climate change
N2  - Floating ice shelves, which fringe most of Antarctica’s coastline, regulate ice flow into the Southern Ocean1,2,3. Their thinning4,5,6,7 or disintegration8,9 can cause upstream acceleration of grounded ice and raise global sea levels. So far the effect has not been quantified in a comprehensive and spatially explicit manner. Here, using a finite-element model, we diagnose the immediate, continent-wide flux response to different spatial patterns of ice-shelf mass loss. We show that highly localized ice-shelf thinning can reach across the entire shelf and accelerate ice flow in regions far from the initial perturbation. As an example, this ‘tele-buttressing’ enhances outflow from Bindschadler Ice Stream in response to thinning near Ross Island more than 900 km away. We further find that the integrated flux response across all grounding lines is highly dependent on the location of imposed changes: the strongest response is caused not only near ice streams and ice rises, but also by thinning, for instance, well-within the Filchner–Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves. The most critical regions in all major ice shelves are often located in regions easily accessible to the intrusion of warm ocean waters10,11,12, stressing Antarctica’s vulnerability to changes in its surrounding ocean.
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0020-x
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 8
IS  - 1
SP  - 53
EP  - 57
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Levermann, Anders
T1  - Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)
BT  - part 2: parameter ensemble analysis
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - The Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) is applied to the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last two glacial cycles (approximate to 210 000 years) with a resolution of 16 km. An ensemble of 256 model runs is analyzed in which four relevant model parameters have been systematically varied using full-factorial parameter sampling. Parameters and plausible parameter ranges have been identified in a companion paper (Albrecht et al., 2020) and are associated with ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and bed deformation and represent distinct classes of model uncertainties. The model is scored against both modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding-line locations, elevation-age data, ice thickness, surface velocities and uplift rates. An aggregated score is computed for each ensemble member that measures the overall model-data misfit, including measurement uncertainty in terms of a Gaussian error model (Briggs and Tarasov, 2013). The statistical method used to analyze the ensemble simulation results follows closely the simple averaging method described in Pollard et al. (2016). 
This analysis reveals clusters of best-fit parameter combinations, and hence a likely range of relevant model and boundary parameters, rather than individual best-fit parameters. The ensemble of reconstructed histories of Antarctic Ice Sheet volumes provides a score-weighted likely range of sea-level contributions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of 9.4 +/- 4.1m (or 6.5 +/- 2.0 x 10(6) km(3)), which is at the upper range of most previous studies. The last deglaciation occurs in all ensemble simulations after around 12 000 years before present and hence after the meltwater pulse 1A (MWP1a). Our ensemble analysis also provides an estimate of parametric uncertainty bounds for the present-day state that can be used for PISM projections of future sea-level contributions from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 14
IS  - 2
SP  - 633
EP  - 656
PB  - Copernicus Publ.
CY  - Göttingen
ER  -