TY  - JOUR
A1  - Basnarkov, Lasko
A1  - Tomovski, Igor
A1  - Sandev, Trifce
A1  - Kocarev, Ljupčo
T1  - Non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model of COVID-19
JF  - Chaos, solitons & fractals : applications in science and engineering ; an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science
N2  - We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete-and continuous-time versions. The distributions of infection intensity and recovery period may take an arbitrary form. By taking corresponding choice of these functions, it is shown that the model reduces to the classical Markovian case. The epidemic threshold is analytically determined for arbitrary functions of infectivity and recovery and verified numerically. The relevance of the model is shown by modeling the first wave of the epidemic in Italy, Spain and the UK, in the spring, 2020.
KW  - Epidemic spreading models
KW  - Non-Markovian processes
KW  - COVID-19
KW  - SIR model
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112286
SN  - 0960-0779
SN  - 1873-2887
VL  - 160
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Oxford [u.a.]
ER  -