TY  - JOUR
A1  - Horton, Benjamin P.
A1  - Khan, Nicole S.
A1  - Cahill, Niamh
A1  - Lee, Janice S. H.
A1  - Shaw, Timothy A.
A1  - Garner, Andra J.
A1  - Kemp, Andrew C.
A1  - Engelhart, Simon E.
A1  - Rahmstorf, Stefan
T1  - Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
JF  - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
N2  - Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
KW  - projections
KW  - Greenland
KW  - consequences
KW  - climate
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5
SN  - 2397-3722
VL  - 3
IS  - 1
SP  - 1
EP  - 8
PB  - Springer Nature
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hierro, Rodrigo
A1  - Burgos Fonseca, Y.
A1  - Ramezani Ziarani, Maryam
A1  - Llamedo, P.
A1  - Schmidt, Torsten
A1  - de la Torre, Alejandro
A1  - Alexander, P.
T1  - On the behavior of rainfall maxima at the eastern Andes
JF  - Atmospheric Research
N2  - In this study, we detect high percentile rainfall events in the eastern central Andes, based on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) with a spatial resolution of 0.25 × 0.25°, a temporal resolution of 3 h, and for the duration from 2001 to 2018. We identify three areas with high mean accumulated rainfall and analyze their atmospheric behaviour and rainfall characteristics with specific focus on extreme events. Extreme events are defined by events above the 95th percentile of their daily mean accumulated rainfall. Austral summer (DJF) is the period of the year presenting the most frequent extreme events over these three regions. Daily statistics show that the spatial maxima, as well as their associated extreme events, are produced during the night. For the considered period, ERA-Interim reanalysis data, provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with 0.75° x0.75° spatial and 6-hourly temporal resolutions, were used for the analysis of the meso- and synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns. Night- and day-time differences indicate a nocturnal overload of northerly and northeasterly low-level humidity flows arriving from tropical South America. Under these conditions, cooling descending air from the mountains may find unstable air at the surface, giving place to the development of strong local convection. Another possible mechanism is presented here: a forced ascent of the low-level flow due to the mountains, disrupting the atmospheric stratification and generating vertical displacement of air trajectories. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in T-mode is applied to day- and night-time data during the maximum and extreme events. The results show strong correlation areas over each subregion under study during night-time, whereas during day-time no defined patterns are found. This confirms the observed nocturnal behavior of rainfall within these three hotspots.
KW  - South-America
KW  - rainy-season
KW  - part I
KW  - precipitation
KW  - TRMM
KW  - climate
KW  - summer
KW  - circulation
KW  - monsoon
KW  - systems
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104792
SN  - 0169-8095
VL  - 234
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam [u.a.]
ER  -