TY - GEN A1 - Zamirirad, Azadeh T1 - Iranische Wahl : auf den Spuren des grünen Sommers T1 - Iranian elections : on the track of the green summer N2 - Die zehnten Präsidentschaftswahlen im Iran sorgten für einen Eklat. Ausgerechnet im Jubiläumsjahr, in dem man sich mit Stolz präsentieren wollte, erlebt die Islamische Republik ihren größten Legitimitätsverlust. Mit der Verkündung von Ahmadinedschads Wahlsieg löste das Regime eine Welle der Empörung aus, die bis heute nicht abgeklungen ist. Zwar konnten die Proteste den amtierenden Präsidenten nicht von seiner zweiten Amtszeit abhalten, doch der grüne Sommer hat seine Spuren in der Theokratie hinterlassen. KW - Iran KW - Wahlen KW - Islam KW - Iran KW - elections KW - Islam Y1 - 2010 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-40802 SN - 978-3-941880-06-1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Krause, Werner A1 - Gahn, Christina T1 - Should we include margins of error in public opinion polls? JF - European journal of political research N2 - Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error. Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race. The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness. The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public. KW - elections KW - vote choice KW - public opinion polls KW - margins of error Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12633 SN - 0304-4130 SN - 1475-6765 VL - Early view PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - GEN A1 - Krause, Werner A1 - Gahn, Christina T1 - How powerful are polls in influencing election outcomes? T2 - The LOOP : ECPR's Political Science Blog N2 - Werner Krause and Christina Gahn argue that we need to pay more attention to how the media communicates the results of opinion polls to the public. Reporting methodological details, such as margins of error, can alter citizens’ vote choices on election day. This has important implications for elections around the world KW - elections KW - margins of error KW - opinion polls KW - ÖVP KW - politics and the media KW - polling KW - Sebastian Kurz KW - voters KW - voting Y1 - 2024 UR - https://theloop.ecpr.eu/how-powerful-are-polls-in-influencing-election-outcomes/ PB - European Consortium for Political Research CY - Colchester ER -