TY - CHAP A1 - Krieger, Heike A1 - Liese, Andrea ED - Krieger, Heike ED - Liese, Andrea T1 - Conclusion BT - turbulence, robustness, and value change T2 - Tracing value change in the international legal order N2 - Based on the previous findings in this book, Chapter 18 by Heike Krieger and Andrea Liese discusses the general dynamics of change or metamorphosis in the international legal order. They discern a mixed picture of an international order between metamorphosis—that is, a more fundamental transformation—of international law, norm change, turbulences, and robustness. They explain drivers of change and highlight factors such as national interests during the war on terror, changing long-term foreign policy beliefs, and the rise in populism and autocracy, before discussing the most common strategies the actors involved use. Other relevant factors include changes in the political environment, such as shocks and power shifts or the ambiguous role of fragmentation. Moreover, they identify factors that make legal norms robust, including the vital role of norm defenders and legal and institutional structures as stabilizing elements. Krieger and Liese conclude by cautioning that if the attacks on the international order continue at the current frequency and magnitude, a metamorphosis of international law will likely be unstoppable. KW - value change KW - legal change KW - norm robustness KW - norm dynamics KW - drivers for change KW - metamorphosis of international law Y1 - 2023 SN - 978-0-19-285583-1 SN - 978-0-19-266836-3 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192855831.003.0018 SP - 319 EP - C18N113 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lundgren, Magnus A1 - Squatrito, Theresa A1 - Sommerer, Thomas A1 - Tallberg, Jonas T1 - Introducing the Intergovernmental Policy Output Dataset (IPOD) JF - The review of international organizations N2 - There is a growing recognition that international organizations (IOs) formulate and adopt policy in a wide range of areas. IOs have emerged as key venues for states seeking joint solutions to contemporary challenges such as climate change or COVID-19, and to establish frameworks to bolster trade, development, security, and more. In this capacity, IOs produce both extraordinary and routine policy output with a multitude of purposes, ranging from policies of historic significance like admitting new members to the more mundane tasks of administering IO staff. This article introduces the Intergovernmental Policy Output Dataset (IPOD), which covers close to 37,000 individual policy acts of 13 multi-issue IOs in the 1980–2015 period. The dataset fills a gap in the growing body of literature on the comparative study of IOs, providing researchers with a fine-grained perspective on the structure of IO policy output and data for comparisons across time, policy areas, and organizations. This article describes the construction and coverage of the dataset and identifies key temporal and cross-sectional patterns revealed by the data. In a concise illustration of the dataset’s utility, we apply models of punctuated equilibria in a comparative study of the relationship between institutional features and broad policy agenda dynamics. Overall, the Intergovernmental Policy Output Dataset offers a unique resource for researchers to analyze IO policy output in a granular manner and to explore questions of responsiveness, performance, and legitimacy of IOs. KW - international organizations KW - policy KW - policy agendas KW - decision-making Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-023-09492-6 SN - 1559-7431 SN - 1559-744X VL - 19 SP - 117 EP - 146 PB - Springer CY - Boston ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lundgren, Magnus A1 - Tallberg, Jonas A1 - Sommerer, Thomas A1 - Squatrito, Theresa T1 - When are international organizations responsive to policy problems? JF - International studies quarterly : the journal of the International Studies Association N2 - When are international organizations (IOs) responsive to the policy problems that motivated their establishment? While it is a conventional assumption that IOs exist to address transnational challenges, the question of whether and when IO policy-making is responsive to shifts in underlying problems has not been systematically explored. This study investigates the responsiveness of IOs from a large-n, comparative approach. Theoretically, we develop three alternative models of IO responsiveness, emphasizing severeness, dependence, and power differentials. Empirically, we focus on the domain of security, examining the responsiveness of eight multi-issue IOs to armed conflict between 1980 and 2015, using a novel and expansive dataset on IO policy decisions. Our findings suggest, first, that IOs are responsive to security problems and, second, that responsiveness is not primarily driven by dependence or power differentials but by problem severity. An in-depth study of the responsiveness of the UN Security Council using more granular data confirms these findings. As the first comparative study of whether and when IO policy adapts to problem severity, the article has implications for debates about IO responsiveness, performance, and legitimacy. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad045 SN - 0020-8833 SN - 1468-2478 VL - 67 IS - 3 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Duit, Andreas A1 - Lim, Sijeong A1 - Sommerer, Thomas T1 - The state and the environment BT - environmental policy and performance in 37 countries 1970–2010 JF - Politics & policy N2 - The limitations and possibilities of the state in solving societal problems are perennial issues in the political and policy sciences and increasingly so in studies of environmental politics. With the aim of better understanding the role of the state in addressing environmental degradation through policy making, this article investigates the nexus between the environmental policy outputs and the environmental performance. Drawing on three theoretical perspectives on the state and market nexus in the environmental dilemma, we identify five distinct pathways. We then examine the extent to which these pathways are manifested in the real world. Our empirical investigation covers up to 37 countries for the period 1970–2010. While we see no global pattern of linkages between policy outputs and performance, our exploratory analysis finds evidence of policy effects, which suggest that the state can, under certain circumstances, improve the environment through policy making. KW - comparative environmental politics KW - ecological modernization KW - environmental degradation KW - environmental policy effects KW - environmental policy performance KW - national ecological footprint KW - policy output KW - regulation KW - state KW - treadmill of production KW - política ambiental comparada KW - modernización ecológica KW - huella ecológica KW - regulación estatal Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12561 SN - 1555-5623 SN - 1747-1346 VL - 51 IS - 6 SP - 1046 EP - 1068 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kuhlmann, Sabine ED - Goldfinch, Shaun F. T1 - From Weberian bureaucracy to digital government? BT - trajectories of administrative reform in Germany T2 - Handbook of public administration reform N2 - Over the past decades, the traditional profile of the German administrative system has significantly been reshaped and remoulded through reforms and transformations. Manifold modernization efforts have been undertaken to adjust administrative structures and procedures to increasing challenges and pressures. In this chapter, the attempt is made to outline major institutional reform paths in Germany from Weberian bureaucracy to most recent reforms towards a digital transformation of public administration. We will show to what extent the German administrative system has moved away from the classical Weberian bureaucracy to a hybrid system where elements of the ‘old’ model and new reform paradigms such as the NPM and digital government are hybridized, labelled the Neo Weberian State. The question will be addressed as to what extent this shift has taken shape and which hurdles and path-dependencies can be identified to explain partial persistence and continuity over time. KW - neo weberian state KW - digitalization KW - new public management KW - territorial reforms KW - intergovernmental reforms KW - Germany Y1 - 2023 SN - 978-1-80037-674-8 SN - 978-1-80037-673-1 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800376748.00016 SP - 207 EP - 226 PB - Edward Elgar Publishing CY - Cheltenham, UK ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Tallberg, Jonas A1 - Bäckstrand, Karin A1 - Aart Scholte, Jan A1 - Sommerer, Thomas T1 - SNS Democracy Council 2023 BT - global governance: fit for purpose? N2 - Transboundary problems such as climate change, military conflicts, trade barriers, and refugee flows require increased collaboration across borders. This is to a large extent possible using existing international organizations. In such a case, however, they need to be considerably strengthened – while current trends take us in the opposite direction, according to the researchers in the SNS Democracy Council 2023. KW - democracy KW - globalization KW - international trade Y1 - 2023 UR - https://snsse.cdn.triggerfish.cloud/uploads/2023/04/sns-democracy-council-2023-global-governance--fit-for-purpose.pdf SN - 978-91-89754-06-5 PB - SNS Förlag CY - Stockholm ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dörfler, Thomas T1 - Why rules matter: shaping security council sanctions policy in counterterrorism and beyond JF - Journal of global security studies N2 - Sanctions are critical to the Security Council's efforts to fight terrorism. What is striking is that the Council's sanctions regimes are subject to detailed sets of rules and decision criteria. The scholarship on human rights in counterterrorism assumes that rights advocacy and court litigation have prompted this development. The article complements this literature by highlighting an unexplored internal driver of legal-regulatory decision-making and explores how mixed-motive interest constellations among Security Council members have affected the extent of committee regulations and the content of decisions taken by sanctions committees. Based on internal documents and diplomatic cables, a comparative analysis of the Iraq sanctions regime and the counterterrorism sanctions regime demonstrates that mixed-motive interest constellations among Security Council members provide incentives to elaborate rules to guide decision-making resulting in legal-regulatory sanctions governance, even if the human rights of targeted individuals are not at stake. For comparative leverage and to assess the limits of the proposed mechanism, the analysis is briefly extended to other sanctions regimes targeting individuals (Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan). The findings have implications for this essential tool of the Security Council to react to threats to peace as diverse as counterterrorism, nonproliferation, and internal armed conflict. N2 - Les sanctions jouent un rôle essentiel dans la lutte du Conseil de sécurité contre le terrorisme. Ce qui est frappant, c'est que les régimes de sanctions du Conseil sont soumis à un ensemble détaillé de règles et de critères de décision. La recherche sur les droits de l'homme dans le cadre de la lutte contre le terrorisme suppose que la défense des droits et les litiges devant les tribunaux sont à l'origine de cet état de fait. L'article vient compléter cette littérature en soulignant un facteur interne inexploré dans la prise de décisions légales/réglementaires. Il analyse les répercussions des constellations de divers intérêts chez les membres du Conseil de sécurité sur l’étendue des réglementations de comité et le contenu des décisions prises par les comités de sanctions. En s'appuyant sur des documents internes et des câbles diplomatiques, une analyse comparative du régime de sanctions de l'Irak et du régime de sanctions de lutte contre le terrorisme démontre que ces constellations de divers intérêts chez les membres du Conseil de sécurité motivent l’élaboration de règles pour guider la prise de décisions débouchant sur une gouvernance de sanctions légales/réglementaires, même quand les droits de l'homme des personnes ciblées ne sont pas en jeu. À des fins de comparaison, et pour évaluer les limites du mécanisme proposé, l'analyse fait l'objet d'un bref élargissement à d'autres régimes de sanctions ciblant des personnes (RDC et Soudan). Les conclusions s'accompagnent d'implications pour cet outil essentiel du Conseil de sécurité dans la réaction aux menaces pour la paix : lutte contre le terrorisme, non-prolifération et conflit armé interne. N2 - Las sanciones son fundamentales para los esfuerzos del Consejo de Seguridad en la lucha contra el terrorismo. Lo sorprendente es que los regímenes de sanciones del Consejo están sujetos a detallados conjuntos de normas y criterios de decisión. Los académicos especializados en cuestión de derechos humanos en la lucha antiterrorista parten de la base de que la defensa de los derechos y los litigios ante los tribunales han impulsado esta tendencia. Este artículo complementa esta bibliografía poniendo de relieve un impulsor interno inexplorado de la toma de decisiones jurídico-normativas y analiza cómo las constelaciones de intereses de motivación mixta entre los miembros del Consejo de Seguridad han afectado al alcance de las normativas de los comités y al contenido de las decisiones adoptadas por los comités de sanciones. Basándose en documentos internos y telegramas diplomáticos, un análisis comparativo del régimen de sanciones contra Irak con el régimen de sanciones antiterroristas demuestra que las constelaciones de intereses de motivación mixta entre los miembros del Consejo de Seguridad proporcionan incentivos para la elaboración de normas que guíen la toma de decisiones dando lugar a una gobernanza jurídica-normativa de las sanciones, aun cuando no estén en juego los derechos humanos de las personas sancionadas. A efectos comparativos y con el fin de evaluar los límites del mecanismo propuesto, el análisis se amplía someramente a otros regímenes de sanciones dirigidos a individuos (RDC y Sudán). Las conclusiones tienen implicaciones para esta herramienta esencial del Consejo de Seguridad a fin de reaccionar ante amenazas a la paz tan diversas como la lucha antiterrorista, la no proliferación y los conflictos armados internos. KW - Security Council KW - committee governance KW - UN sanctions KW - due process KW - counterterrorism KW - Iraq KW - Conseil de sécurité KW - gouvernance de comité KW - sanctions de l’ONU KW - procédure officielle KW - lutte contre le terrorisme KW - Irak KW - Consejo de Seguridad KW - Gobernanza de los Comités KW - Sanciones de la ONU KW - Proceso debido KW - Lucha antiterrorista KW - Irak Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogac041 SN - 2057-3170 SN - 2057-3189 VL - 8 IS - 1 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ullmann, Andreas J. A1 - von Staden, Andreas T1 - A room full of ‘views’ BT - introducing a new dataset to explore compliance with the decisions of the UN Human Rights Treaty Bodies’ individual complaints procedures JF - Journal of conflict resolution N2 - Quantitative research into the effectiveness of the UN human rights treaty bodies (UNTBs) in eliciting remedial responses from states is impeded by a lack of usable data on how states respond to their decisions. The new Treaty Body Views Dataset (TBVD) aims to fill this gap. It comprises details on all published decisions in individual complaints cases issued by the UNTBs between 1979 and 2019 and matches these with information on their state of compliance. The TBVD can be used for research on the activities of the treaty bodies, the nature of the decisions themselves, or state behavior following a decision. An empirical application illustrates how the TBVD can advance knowledge about the factors that correlate with compliance with adverse UNTB decisions. Results show that the likelihood of implementation hinges critically on decision-level characteristics, and reveal differences and similarities between compliance with UNTB decisions and regional human rights court judgments. KW - human rights KW - international institutions KW - second-order compliance KW - individual complaints procedures KW - UN human rights treaty bodies Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231160460 SN - 0022-0027 SN - 1552-8766 VL - 68 IS - 2-3 SP - 534 EP - 561 PB - Sage Publications CY - Thousand Oaks ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Krause, Werner A1 - Gahn, Christina T1 - Should we include margins of error in public opinion polls? JF - European journal of political research N2 - Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error. Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race. The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness. The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public. KW - elections KW - vote choice KW - public opinion polls KW - margins of error Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12633 SN - 0304-4130 SN - 1475-6765 VL - Early view PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rothermel, Ann-Kathrin T1 - The role of evidence-based misogyny in antifeminist online communities of the ‘manosphere’ JF - Big data & society N2 - In recent years, there have been a growing number of online and offline attacks linked to a loosely connected network of misogynist and antifeminist online communities called ‘the manosphere’. Since 2016, the ideas spread among and by groups of the manosphere have also become more closely aligned with those of other Far-Right online networks. In this commentary, I explore the role of what I term ‘evidence-based misogyny’ for mobilization and radicalization into the antifeminist and misogynist subcultures of the manosphere. Evidence-based misogyny is a discursive strategy, whereby members of the manosphere refer to (and misinterpret) knowledge in the form of statistics, studies, news items and pop-culture and mimic accepted methods of knowledge presentation to support their essentializing, polarizing views about gender relations in society. Evidence-based misogyny is a core aspect for manosphere-related mobilization as it provides a false sense of authority and forges a collective identity, which is framed as a supposed ‘alternative’ to mainstream gender knowledge. Due to its core function to justify and confirm the misogynist sentiments of users, evidence-based misogyny serves as connector between the manosphere and both mainstream conservative as well as other Far-Right and conspiratorial discourses. KW - misogyny KW - male supremacy KW - far right KW - discourse KW - incels KW - radicalization KW - antifeminist KW - men's rights KW - manosphere Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/20539517221145671 SN - 2053-9517 VL - 10 IS - 1 PB - Sage CY - Thousand Oaks, Calif. ER - TY - THES A1 - Teitscheid, Jana T1 - Information and communication technologies usage and the effects on the human mind N2 - The digitization has permeated almost all aspects of an individual’s life. In the work context as well as in the private sphere, one readily encounters and relies on Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), such as Social Networking Sites (SNS), smartphones and so forth. By communicating with as well as obtaining information via such technologies, ICTs engage one’s mind as interaction happens. This interaction of ICTs and the human mind form the focal topic of this thesis. Within this thesis, the human mind is represented on behalf of a facilitated model comprising a perceptual, a cognitive and a motor subsystem. ICTs represent an external stimulus, which triggers the human mind's perceptual subsystem, the cognitive subsystem and eventually leads to a motoric response via the motor subsystem. The external stimulus causing this event chain is within this thesis an ICT. The digital environment and related ICTs are high attention environments offering large and easily accessible amounts of information. Not surprisingly, issues may arise, when the human mind deals with ICTs. Thus, the interplay between ICTs and the human mind entails downsides. This thesis investigates these downsides and in addition the ICT-based factors that cause these downsides. More specifically, the thesis investigates these two aspects as research questions in the context of SNSs as well as other ICTs (such as smartphones, e-learning etc.). Addressing the research questions, 8 articles are submitted within this thesis which address the topic with different methodologies, including quantitative, qualitative, mixed methods as well as systematic literature reviews. Article 1 investigates factors that lead to SNS fatigue and discontinuance intentions in a mixed-methods design. Article 2 explores if certain factors encountered on a newsfeed hamper sensemaking. Article 3 proposes a study design to explore the link between disorderly perceptions of a SNSs newsfeed and gender stereotype activations. Article 4 considers the interplay between users and algorithms via the newsfeed interface and the implications for relevance perceptions. Article 5 explores information acquisition, hampering factors and verification strategies of social media users. Article 6 systematically reviews addiction scales of various ICTs. Article 7 investigates click behavior in e-learning contexts and how this is linked to cultural and personality traits. Finally, article 8 offers a comprehensive overview of the antecedents and consequences of children’s smartphone usage. Within the specific context of SNSs, the thesis suggests that the cognitive tolls imposed on users’ minds cause adverse effects, such as impaired sensemaking, fatigue, stereotype activation as well as intentions to discontinue the service. Other ICTs lead to addiction, and i.e., smartphones evidence to cause cognitive impairments in children. Factors on the ICT side that promote these adverse effects are linked to specific features, such as the newsfeed for SNSs and entail overload or perceptions of disorder. The thesis adds theoretically to the understanding of downsides that arise from the interplay between human minds and ICTs. Especially, the context of SNSs is spotlighted and insights add to the growing body of literature on experiences and perceptions. For instance, one study’s result suggests that considering information organization is as important as merely decreasing overload perceptions from the users in countering adverse effects of SNS usage. Practically, the thesis emphasizes the importance of mindful interaction with ICTs. Future research is welcome to build on the exploratory investigations and may draw an even more holistic picture to enhance the interaction between ICTs and the human mind. N2 - Die Digitalisierung hat fast alle Aspekte unseres Lebens durchdrungen. Sowohl im beruflichen als auch im privaten Kontext sind wir auf Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien (IKT) wie soziale Netzwerke (SNS), Smartphones usw. angewiesen. Während wir mittels solcher Technologien kommunizieren, Informationen erhalten und interagieren, beansprucht die IKT unseren Verstand. Diese Interaktion zwischen den Informationstechnologien und dem menschlichen Verstand als auch deren Auswirkungen ist dabei das zentrale Thema dieser Dissertation. Der menschliche Verstand wird dabei anhand eines vereinfachten Modells dargestellt, das ein wahrnehmendes, ein kognitives und ein motorisches Teilsystem umfasst. Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien stellen einen externen Stimulus dar, der die Wahrnehmung des Verstandes und das kognitive Teilsystem anspricht und schließlich über das motorische Teilsystem zu einer motorischen Reaktion führt. Der externe Stimulus, der diese Ereigniskette auslöst, ist hier als Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie dargestellt. Die digitale Umgebung und die damit verbundenen Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien verlangen schon wegen des hohen Volumens der leicht zugänglichen Informationen ein hohes Maß an Aufmerksamkeit. Die in diesem Zusammenhang möglicherweise auftretenden Probleme sobald der menschliche Verstand mit IKT interagiert, überraschen insofern nicht. Die Wechselwirkung zwischen den IKT und dem menschlichen Verstand kann sich somit zu einem Nachteil auswirken. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht dieses Phänomen und darüber hinaus die IKT-gestützten Faktoren, die diese Nachteile begünstigen. Genauer gesagt stehen diese Untersuchungen im Kontext von SNS sowie anderen IKT (wie Smartphones, E-Learning usw.). Zur Beantwortung der Forschungsfragen werden in dieser Arbeit 8 Artikel vorgelegt, die das Thema mit unterschiedlichen Methoden beleuchten, darunter quantitative, qualitative und gemischte Methoden sowie systematische Literaturübersichten. Artikel 1 untersucht die Faktoren, die zur Ermüdung durch Nutzung von SNS und zu Abbruchabsichten führen, in einem Mixed-Methods-Design. Artikel 2 geht der Frage nach, ob bestimmte Faktoren, auf die man in einer Newsfeed stößt, die Sinnfindung behindern. Artikel 3 schlägt ein Studiendesign vor, um den Zusammenhang zwischen der wahrgenommenen Unordnung auf den Newsfeeds einer SNS und der Aktivierung von Geschlechterstereotypen zu untersuchen. Artikel 4 betrachtet das Zusammenspiel zwischen Nutzern und Algorithmen über die Newsfeed-Schnittstelle und die Auswirkungen auf deren Relevanzwahrnehmung. Artikel 5 untersucht die Informationsbeschaffung, hemmende Faktoren und Überprüfungsstrategien von Nutzern sozialer Medien. Artikel 6 gibt einen systematischen Überblick über Suchtskalen verschiedener Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien. Artikel 7 untersucht das Klickverhalten in E-Learning-Kontexten und wie dieses mit kulturellen Ausprägungen und Persönlichkeitsmerkmalen zusammenhängt. Schließlich bietet der Artikel einen umfassenden Überblick über die begünstigenden Faktoren und Folgen der Smartphone-Nutzung von Kindern. Im spezifischen Kontext von SNSs legt die These nahe, dass die kognitiven Belastungen, die den Nutzern auferlegt werden, negative Auswirkungen haben, wie z.B. eine beeinträchtigte Sinnfindung, Müdigkeit, die Aktivierung von Stereotypen sowie die Absicht, den Service nicht weiter zu nutzen. Andere IKT führen zur Abhängigkeit, und z.B. Smartphones verursachen nachweislich kognitive Beeinträchtigungen bei Kindern. IKT-seitige Faktoren, die diese negativen Auswirkungen begünstigen, sind mit spezifischen Merkmalen verbunden, wie z.B. dem Newsfeed der SNS und machen sich durch Überlastung oder wahrgenommener Unordnung bemerkbar. Die Dissertation trägt theoretisch zum Verständnis der aufgezeigten Nachteile bei, die sich aus dem Zusammenspiel zwischen dem menschlichen Verstand und den IKT ergeben. Insbesondere wird der Kontext der SNS beleuchtet, und die Erkenntnisse ergänzen die sich erweiternde Literatur über Erfahrungen und Wahrnehmungen. In der Praxis unterstreicht die Arbeit die Bedeutung eines achtsamen Umgangs mit IKT. Ich begrüße zukünftige Forschung, die auf den explorativen Untersuchungen aufbaut, um ein noch ganzheitlicheres Bild zu zeichnen: Langfristig trägt diese hoffentlich zur Verbesserung der Interaktion zwischen IKT und dem menschlichen Verstand bei. KW - information and communication technologies KW - social networking sites KW - human mind KW - newsfeed Y1 - 2023 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Schwab, Regine A1 - Krause, Werner A1 - Massoud, Samer T1 - The bombing of hospitals and local violence dynamics in civil wars BT - evidence from Syria (2017 - 2020) T2 - HiCN Working paper N2 - The impact of civilian harm on strategic outcomes in war has been the subject of persistent debate. However, the literature has primarily focused on civilian casualties, thereby overlooking the targeting of civilian infrastructure, which is a recurrent phenomenon during war. This study fills this gap by examining the targeting of healthcare, one of the most indispensable infrastructures during war and peace time. We contend that attacks on medical facilities are distinct from direct violence against civilians. Because they are typically unrelated to military dynamics, the targeting of hospitals is a highly visible form and powerful signal of civilian victimization. To assess its effects, we analyze newly collected data on such attacks by pro-government forces and event data on combat activities in Northwest Syria (2017-2020). Applying a new approach for panel data analysis that combines matching methods with a difference-in-differences estimation, we examine the causal effect of counterinsurgent bombings on subsequent violent events. Distinguishing between regime-initiated and insurgent-initiated combat activities and their associated fatalities, we find that the targeting of hospitals increases insurgent violence. We supplement the quantitative analysis with unique qualitative evidence derived from interviews, which demonstrates that hospital bombings induce rebels to resist more fiercely through two mechanisms: intrinsic motivations and civilian pressure. The results have important implications for the effects of state-led violence and the strength of legal norms that protect noncombatants. KW - civil war KW - collective targeting KW - civilian infrastructure KW - hospitals KW - rebel attacks KW - Syria Y1 - 2023 UR - https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/HiCN-WP-403-2.pdf VL - 403 PB - Households in Conflict Network CY - Berlin ER - TY - GEN A1 - Matsunaga, Miku A1 - Krause, Werner T1 - Right-wing violence and the persistence of far-right popularity T2 - The LOOP : ECPR's Political Science Blog N2 - Miku Matsunaga and Werner Krause reveal how voters who support radical-right parties are sticking by them, despite the current upsurge in right-wing violence. Their findings raise crucial concerns about the broader ramifications of growing far-right movements across the globe KW - AfD KW - Alternative für Deutschland KW - far-right extremism KW - far-right groups KW - far-right parties KW - far-right populism KW - populist radical right KW - right-wing politics Y1 - 2023 UR - https://theloop.ecpr.eu/right-wing-violence-and-the-persistence-of-far-right-popularity/ PB - European Consortium for Political Research CY - Colchester ER - TY - CHAP A1 - M’Hamed, Sonia Chikh A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. ED - Dyrhauge, Helene ED - Kurze, Kristina T1 - The keys to the EU’s climate neutrality goal T2 - Making the European Green Deal work N2 - The EU and its member countries have been laggards in using forest carbon to reduce EU emissions. The European Green Deal aims to change this. As part of its long-term emissions reductions, the EU aims to offset this by creating land-based carbon sinks, especially forest carbon sinks as well as carbon capture and storage. This chapter focuses on the role of forest carbon as part of the EU's climate policies towards achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It furthermore examines the European Commission's proposed forest strategy and its proposal for a revised LULUCF Regulation. The chapter shows that the logic of appropriateness dominates the European Commission's forest policies. Finally, the chapter makes policy recommendations on how the EU could credibly use long-term carbon sinks to achieve climate neutrality. Y1 - 2023 SN - 978-1-032-16070-2 SN - 978-1-032-16077-1 SN - 978-1-003-24698-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003246985-6 SP - 60 EP - 75 PB - Routledge CY - London ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. ED - Jörgens, Helge ED - Knill, Christoph ED - Steinebach, Yves T1 - The challenge of long-term environmental policy T2 - Routledge handbook of environmental policy N2 - Long-term environmental policy remains a vexing puzzle of environmental policy. Following its definition, the author reviews the methods suitable for the study of long-term environmental policy and develops a typology of policy instruments to cope with these challenges. The concluding section offers five central research challenges to advance the study of long-term environmental policy. Y1 - 2023 SN - 978-0-367-48992-2 SN - 978-1-032-50311-0 SN - 978-1-003-04384-3 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003043843-26 SP - 305 EP - 314 PB - Routledge CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Giesen, Michael T1 - Framing gender-based violence in multi-level contexts BT - a networked approach to studying adoption of the Istanbul Convention JF - European journal of politics and gender N2 - International institutions are an essential driving force of contemporary policies to combat gender-based violence but remain toothless if political actors do not implement them in domestic policies. How can scholars conceptualise the transposition of international gender-based violence norms into domestic policies? I argue that discourse network analysis provides a powerful conceptual and methodological extension of critical frame analysis to understand how frames shape the meaning of gender-based violence norms in multi-level institutional contexts. Frames’ normative and cognitive network structure invites combining discourse network and frame analysis techniques that locate frames’ power in their ability to connect different institutional spheres temporally and spatially. I outline a multi-level research agenda that traces the framing processes of international norms and their domestic implementation through gender-based violence policies in the Council of Europe’s Istanbul Convention. This agenda includes avenues to study how complex transnational policy frameworks like the Istanbul Convention play out in domestic policy implementation. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1332/251510821X16693059192022 SN - 2515-1088 SN - 2515-1096 VL - 6 IS - 1 SP - 76 EP - 91 PB - Bristol University Press CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dijkstra, Hylke A1 - Debre, Maria Josepha A1 - Heinkelmann-Wild, Tim T1 - Governance abhors a vacuum BT - the afterlives of major international organisations JF - The British journal of politics & international relations N2 - International organisations have become increasingly contested resulting in worries about their decline and termination. While international organisation termination is indeed a regular event in international relations, this article shows that other institutions carry the legacy of terminated international organisations. We develop the novel concept of international organisation afterlife and suggest indicators to systematically assess it. Our analysis of 26 major terminated international organisations reveals legal-institutional and asset continuity in 21 cases. To further illustrate this point, the article zooms in on the afterlife of the International Institute of Agriculture in the Food and Agriculture Organization, the International Refugee Organization in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, and the Western European Union in the European Union. In these three cases, international organisation afterlife inspired and structured the design of their successor institutions. While specific international organisations might be terminated, international cooperation therefore often lives on in other institutions. KW - death KW - institutional theory KW - international organisations KW - termination Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/13691481231202642 SN - 1369-1481 SN - 1467-856X PB - Sage CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Debre, Maria Josepha A1 - Dijkstra, Hylke T1 - Are international organisations in decline? BT - an absolute and relative perspective on institutional change JF - Global policy N2 - Many international organisations (IOs) are currently challenged, yet are they also in decline? Despite much debate on the crisis of liberal international order, con-testation, loss of legitimacy, gridlock, pathologies and exiting member states, there is little research on IO decline. This article seeks to clarify this concept and argues that decline can be considered in absolute and relative terms. Absolute decline involves a decrease in the number of IOs and their authority, member-ship and output, whereas relative decline concerns a decrease in the centrality of IOs in international relations. Reviewing a wide range of indicators, this article argues that, whereas there is limited decline in absolute terms since 1945, there may well be important decline in relative terms. Relative decline is more difficult to measure, but to probe its significance this article presents data from speeches during the United Nations General Assembly General Debate. It shows that IOs were most often mentioned in 1996 and that there has been a decline since. These findings indicate that, whereas IOs might survive as institutions, they are decreasingly central to international relations. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13170 SN - 1758-5880 SN - 1758-5899 VL - 14 IS - 1 SP - 16 EP - 30 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Debre, Maria Josepha A1 - Sommerer, Thomas T1 - Weathering the storm? BT - the third wave of autocratization and international organization membership T2 - IGCC series on authoritarian regimes and international organizations N2 - Democratization scholars are currently debating if we are indeed witnessing a third wave of autocratization. While this has led to an extensive debate about the future of the liberal international order, we still know relatively little about the consequences of autocratization for international organizations (IOs). In this article, we explore to what extent autocratization has led to changes in the composition of IO membership. We propose three different ways of conceptualizing autocratization of IO membership. We argue that we should move away from a dichotomous understanding of regime type and regime change, but rather focus on composition of subregime types to understand current developments. We build on updated membership data for 73 IOs through 2020 to map membership configurations based on the V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index. Contrary to current debates on the crisis of the liberal order, we find that many IOs are not (yet) affected by broad autocratization of their membership that would endanger democratic majorities or overall democratic densities. However, we also observe the disappearance of formerly homogenous democratic clubs due to democratic backsliding in a number of European and Latin American IO member states, as well as a return of autocratic clubs in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa. These findings have important implications for the broader research agenda on international democracy promotion and human right protection as well as the study of legitimacy and the effectiveness of international organizations. Y1 - 2023 UR - https://ucigcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Debre-Sommerer-Working-Paper-11.21.23.pdf PB - UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation CY - La Jolla, CA ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hänel, Hilkje C. T1 - Germany’s silence: testimonial injustice in the NSU investigation and willful ignorance in the NSU trial JF - Constellations : an international journal of critical and democratic theory Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8675.12703 SN - 1351-0487 SN - 1467-8675 SP - 1 EP - 16 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Rothermel, Ann-Kathrin ED - Rothermel, Ann-Kathrin ED - Shepherd, Laura J. T1 - Gender at the crossroads BT - the role of gender in the UN’s global counterterrorism reform at the humanitarian-development-peace nexus T2 - Gender and the governance of terrorism and violent extremism N2 - Since the early 2000s, the United Nations (UN) global counterterrorism architecture has seen significant changes towards increased multilateralism, a focus on prevention, and inter-institutional coordination across the UN’s three pillars of work. Throughout this reform process, gender aspects have increasingly become presented as a “cross-cutting” theme. In this article, I investigate the role of gender in the UN’s counterterrorism reform process at the humanitarian-development-peace nexus, or “triple nexus”, from a feminist institutionalist perspective. I conduct a feminist discourse analysis of the counterterrorism discourses of three UN entities, which represent the different UN pillars of peace and security (DPO), development (UNDP), and humanitarianism and human rights (OHCHR). The article examines the role of gender in the inter-institutional reform process by focusing on the changes, overlaps and differences in the discursive production of gender in the entities’ counterterrorism agendas over time and in two recent UN counterterrorism conferences. I find that gendered dynamics of nested newness and institutional layering have played an essential role both as a justification for the involvement of individual entities in counterterrorism and as a vehicle for inter-institutional cooperation and struggle for discursive power. Y1 - 2023 SN - 978-1-003-38126-6 SN - 978-1-032-46347-6 SN - 978-1-032-46348-3 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003381266-2 SP - 11 EP - 36 PB - Routledge CY - London ER - TY - BOOK ED - Rothermel, Ann-Kathrin ED - Shepherd, Laura J. T1 - Gender and the governance of terrorism and violent extremism N2 - This book brings together a variety of innovative perspectives on the inclusion of gender in the governance of (counter-)terrorism and violent extremism. Several global governance initiatives launched in recent years have explicitly sought to integrate concern for gender equality and gendered harms into efforts to counter terrorism and violent extremism (CT/CVE). As a result, commitments to gender-sensitivity and gender equality in international and regional CT/CVE initiatives, in national action plans and at the level of civil society programming, ´have become a common aspect of the multilevel governance of terrorism and violent extremism. In light of these developments, there is a need for more systematic analysis of how concerns about gender are being incorporated in the governance of (counter-)terrorism and violent extremism and how it has affected (gendered) practices and power relations in counterterrorism policy-making and implementation. Ranging from the processes of global and regional integration of gender into the governance of terrorism, via the impact of the shift on government responses to the return of foreign fighters, to state and civil society-led CVE programming and academic discussions, the essays engage with the origins and dynamics behind recent shifts which bring gender to the forefront of the governance of terrorism. This book will be of great value to researchers and scholars interested in gender, governance and terrorism. The chapters in this book were originally published in Critical Studies on Terrorism. Y1 - 2023 SN - 978-1-003-38126-6 SN - 978-1-032-46347-6 SN - 978-1-032-46348-3 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003381266 PB - Routledge CY - London ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Dannemann, Udo ED - Fridrich, Christian ED - Hagedorn, Udo ED - Hedtke, Reinhold ED - Mittnik, Philipp ED - Tafner, Georg T1 - Understanding neoliberal subjectification BT - the contemporary homo economicus in the context of socio-economic education T2 - Economy, society and politics : socio-economic and political education in schools and universities N2 - The contribution explores how an understanding of neoliberal subjectification in socio-economic education can serve to counteract the trend marketisation of democracy. Drawing on Foucault’s lectures on biopolitics and Brown’s current analysis of neoliberalism, it lays out a sociological explanation that treats the idea of homo economicus as a structuring element of our society and outlines the threat this poses to the liberal democratic order. The second part of the contribution outlines – through immanent critique – an ideology-critical analytical competence that uses key problems to illuminate socially critical perspectives on social reality. The objective is to challenge some of the foundations of social order (Salomon, D. Kritische politische Bildung. Ein Versuch. In B. Widmaier & Overwien, B. (Hrsg.), Was heißt heute kritische politische Bildung? (S. 232–239). Wochenschau, 2013) in pursuit of the ultimate objective of an educated and assertive citizenry. Y1 - 2024 SN - 978-3-658-42524-1 SN - 978-3-658-42525-8 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-42525-8_10 SP - 217 EP - 236 PB - Springer Fachmedien CY - Wiesbaden ER - TY - THES A1 - Melliger, Marc André T1 - Effects of exposing renewables to the market BT - Analysing the design of support policies and the coordination of their changes from investor, system, and policy perspectives in EU member states BT - Gestaltung und Koordinierung der Förderpolitik aus Investoren-, System- und Policysicht in EU-Mitgliedstaaten N2 - Electricity production contributes to a significant share of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe and is thus an important driver of climate change. To fulfil the Paris Agreement, the European Union (EU) needs a rapid transition to a fully decarbonised power production system. Presumably, such a system will be largely based on renewables. So far, many EU countries have supported a shift towards renewables such as solar and wind power using support schemes, but the economic and political context is changing. Renewables are now cheaper than ever before and have become cost-competitive with conventional technologies. Therefore, European policymakers are striving to better integrate renewables into a competitive market and to increase the cost-effectiveness of the expansion of renewables. The first step was to replace previous fixed-price schemes with competitive auctions. In a second step, these auctions have become more technology-open. Finally, some governments may phase out any support for renewables and fully expose them to the competitive power market. However, such policy changes may be at odds with the need to rapidly expand renewables and meet national targets due to market characteristics and investors’ risk perception. Without support, price risks are higher, and it may be difficult to meet an investor’s income expectations. Furthermore, policy changes across different countries could have unexpected effects if power markets are interconnected and investors able to shift their investments. Finally, in multi-technology auctions, technologies may dominate, which can be a risk for long-term power system reliability. Therefore, in my thesis, I explore the effects of phasing out support policies for renewables, of coordinating these phase-outs across countries, and of using multi-technology designs. I expand the public policy literature about investment behaviour and policy design as well as policy change and coordination, and I further develop an agent-based model. The main questions of my thesis are what the cost and deployment effects of gradually exposing renewables to market forces would be and how coordination between countries affects investors’ decisions and market prices.. In my three contributions to the academic literature, I use different methods and come to the following results. In the first contribution, I use a conjoint analysis and market simulation to evaluate the effects of phasing out support or reintroducing feed-in tariffs from the perspective of investors. I find that a phase-out leads to investment shifts, either to other still-supported technologies or to other countries that continue to offer support. I conclude that the coordination of policy changes avoids such shifts.. In the second contribution, I integrate the empirically-derived preferences from the first contribution in to an agent-based power system model of two countries to simulate the effects of ending auctions for renewables. I find that this slows the energy transition, and that cross-border effects are relevant. Consequently, continued support is necessary to meet the national renewables targets. In the third contribution, I analyse the outcome of past multi-technology auctions using descriptive statistics, regression analysis as well as case study comparisons. I find that the outcomes are skewed towards single technologies. This cannot be explained by individual design elements of the auctions, but rather results from context-specific and country-specific characteristics. Based on this, I discuss potential implications for long-term power system reliability. The main conclusions of my thesis are that a complete phase-out of renewables support would slow down the energy transition and thus jeopardize climate targets, and that multi-technology auctions may pose a risk for some countries, especially those that cannot regulate an unbalanced power plant portfolio in the long term. If policymakers decide to continue supporting renewables, they may consider adopting technology-specific auctions to better steer their portfolio. In contrast, if policymakers still want to phase out support, they should coordinate these policy changes with other countries. Otherwise, overall transition costs can be higher, because investment decisions shift to still-supported but more expensive technologies. N2 - Die Stromproduktion trägt zu einem bedeutenden Anteil der Treibhausgasemissionen in Europa bei und ist damit ein wichtiger Treiber des Klimawandels. Um das Pariser Abkommen zu erfüllen, muss die Europäische Union (EU) eine Wende hin zu einem vollständig treibhausgasneutralen Stromerzeugungssystem durchlaufen. Vermutlich wird ein solches System zu einem Grossteil auf erneuerbaren Energien beruhen. Obwohl viele EU-Länder die Umstellung auf erneuerbare Energien wie Solar- und Windenergie bisher durch Förderprogramme unterstützt haben, ändert sich der wirtschaftliche und politische Kontext. Erneuerbare Energien sind heute billiger als je zuvor und konkurrenzfähig gegenüber konventionellen Technologien. Daher sind Entscheidungsträger der europäischen Regierungen bestrebt, die erneuerbaren Energien besser in einen wettbewerbsfähigen Markt zu integrieren und die Kosteneffizienz des Ausbaus der erneuerbaren Energien zu erhöhen. In einem ersten Schritt wurden Festpreisvergütungen durch wettbewerbsorientierte Auktionen ersetzt. In einem zweiten Schritt wurden diese Auktionen technologieoffener gestaltet. Schließlich könnten einige Regierungen die Unterstützung für erneuerbare Energien beenden und diese vollständig dem wettbewerbsorientierten Strommarkt aussetzen. Solche Reformen könnten jedoch aufgrund von Marktmerkmalen und der Risikowahrnehmung von Investoren im Widerspruch zu der Notwendigkeit stehen, die erneuerbaren Energien rasch auszubauen, um die nationalen Ziele zu erreichen. Ohne Förderinstrumente steigen Preisrisiken und es könnte schwierig werden, die Einkommenserwartungen der Investoren zu erfüllen. Darüber hinaus könnten Reformen in verschiedenen Ländern unerwartete Auswirkungen haben, insbesondere wenn deren Strommärkte gekoppelt sind und die Investoren ihre Anlagen in andere Länder verlagern. Schließlich könnten technologieoffene Auktionen zu einer Dominanz einzelner Technologien führen, was ein Risiko für die langfristige Zuverlässigkeit des Stromsystems darstellen würde. In meiner Dissertation untersuche ich daher die Auswirkungen des Ausstiegs aus der Förderung erneuerbarer Energien und deren länderübergreifenden Koordinierung. Außerdem beleuchte ich die Resultate von Multitechnologie-Auktionen. Mit dieser Dissertation erweitere ich die wissenschaftliche Literatur über Investitionsverhalten und Policydesign sowie über Politikänderungen und -koordinierung und entwickle ein agentenbasiertes Modell weiter. Die Hauptforschungsfragen meiner Arbeit sind, wie sich die schrittweise Annäherung der erneuerbaren Energien hin zu Marktkräften auf die Kosten und deren Ausbau auswirken würde und wie die Koordinierung zwischen den Ländern die Entscheidungen der Investoren und die Marktpreise beeinflusst. In meinen drei wissenschaftlichen Artikeln verwende ich unterschiedliche Methoden und gelange zu den folgenden Ergebnissen. Im ersten Artikel wende ich eine Conjoint-Analyse an, um die Auswirkungen einer Beendigung der Förderung oder der Wiedereinführung von Einspeisevergütungen aus der Sicht der Investoren zu bewerten. Ich komme zu dem Ergebnis, dass ein Ende der Förderung zu Investitionsverlagerungen führt, entweder hin zu anderen, weiterhin geförderten Technologien oder in andere Länder, die weiterhin eine Förderung anbieten. Die Koordinierung dieser Politikänderungen kann eine solche Verlagerung jedoch verhindern. Im zweiten Artikel integriere ich die empirisch-erhobenen Präferenzen aus dem ersten Artikel in ein agentenbasiertes Energiesystemmodell für zwei Länder, um die Auswirkungen einer Abschaffung von Auktionen für erneuerbare Energien zu simulieren. Ich stelle fest, dass dies die Energiewende insgesamt verlangsamt und dass grenzübergreifende Effekte von Bedeutung sind. Es wäre eine kontinuierliche Förderung notwendig, um die nationalen Ziele zum Ausbau der Erneuerbaren zu erreichen. Im dritten Artikel analysiere ich die Ergebnisse vergangener Multi-Technologie-Auktionen mittels deskriptiver Statistik, Regressionsanalysen sowie Fallstudienvergleichen. Ich stelle fest, dass die Resultate zugunsten einzelner Technologien ausfallen. Dies lässt sich nicht durch einzelne Designmerkmale der Auktionen erklären, sondern ist vielmehr auf kontext- und länderspezifische Merkmale zurückzuführen. Darauf aufbauend, diskutiere ich mögliche Auswirkungen auf die langfristige Zuverlässigkeit des Stromsystems. Die Hauptaussagen meiner Arbeit sind, dass ein vollständiges Auslaufen der Förderung der Erneuerbaren Energien die Energiewende verlangsamen und damit die Klimaziele gefährden würde, sowie, dass Multi-Technologie-Auktionen ein Risiko für einige Länder darstellen können, insbesondere für solche, die ein unausgewogenes Kraftwerksportfolio nicht regeln können. Wenn die politischen Entscheidungsträger beschließen, erneuerbare Energien weiterhin zu fördern, können sie die Einführung technologiespezifischer Auktionen in Betracht ziehen, um ihr Portfolio besser zu steuern. Falls sie hingegen die Förderung auslaufen lassen möchten, sollten sie diese Politikänderungen mit anderen Ländern koordinieren. Andernfalls können die Gesamtkosten der Energiewende insgesamt höher ausfallen, weil sich Investitionsentscheidungen auf weiterhin geförderte, aber teurere Technologien verlagern. T2 - Marktöffnung für erneuerbare Energien KW - Decarbonisation KW - Renewable Energy KW - Policy Changes KW - Investment Behavior KW - Market Dynamics KW - Dekarbonisierung KW - Erneuerbare Energie KW - Politikänderungen KW - Investitionsverhalten KW - Marktdynamik Y1 - 2024 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cohen, Denis A1 - Krause, Werner A1 - Abou-Chadi, Tarik T1 - Comparative vote switching BT - a new framework for studying dynamic multiparty competition JF - The journal of politics N2 - Large literatures focus on voter reactions to parties’ policy strategies, agency, or legislative performance. While many inquiries make explicit assumptions about the direction and magnitude of voter flows between parties, comparative empirical analyses of vote switching remain rare. In this article, we overcome three challenges that have previously impeded the comparative study of dynamic party competition based on voter flows: we present a novel conceptual framework for studying voter retention, defection, and attraction in multiparty systems, showcase a newly compiled data infrastructure that marries comparative vote switching data with information on party behavior and party systems in over 250 electoral contexts, and introduce a statistical model that renders our conceptual framework operable. These innovations enable first-time inquiries into the polyadic vote switching patterns underlying multiparty competition and unlock major research potentials on party competition and party system change. KW - vote switching KW - party competition KW - multi-party systems KW - data and methods Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1086/726952 SN - 0022-3816 SN - 1468-2508 VL - 86 IS - 2 SP - 597 EP - 607 PB - University of Chicago Press CY - Chicago, IL ER - TY - GEN A1 - Krause, Werner A1 - Gahn, Christina T1 - How powerful are polls in influencing election outcomes? T2 - The LOOP : ECPR's Political Science Blog N2 - Werner Krause and Christina Gahn argue that we need to pay more attention to how the media communicates the results of opinion polls to the public. Reporting methodological details, such as margins of error, can alter citizens’ vote choices on election day. This has important implications for elections around the world KW - elections KW - margins of error KW - opinion polls KW - ÖVP KW - politics and the media KW - polling KW - Sebastian Kurz KW - voters KW - voting Y1 - 2024 UR - https://theloop.ecpr.eu/how-powerful-are-polls-in-influencing-election-outcomes/ PB - European Consortium for Political Research CY - Colchester ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thomeczek, Jan Philipp T1 - Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW): left-wing authoritarian—and populist? BT - an empirical analysis JF - Politische Vierteljahresschrift N2 - Germany’s relatively stable party system faces a new left-authoritarian challenger: Sahra Wagenknecht’s Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) party. First polls indicate that for the BSW, election results above 10% are within reach. While Wagenknecht’s positions in economic and cultural terms have already been discussed, this article elaborates on another highly relevant feature of Wagenknecht, namely her populist communication. Exploring Wagenknecht’s and BSW’s populist appeal helps us to understand why the party is said to also have potential among seemingly different voter groups coming from the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and far left Die Linke, which share high levels of populist attitudes. To analyse the role that populist communication plays for Wagenknecht and the BSW, this article combines quantitative and qualitative methods. The quantitative analysis covers all speeches (10,000) and press releases (19,000) published by Die Linke members of Parliament (MPs; 2005–2023). The results show that Wagenknecht is the (former) Die Linke MP with the highest share of populist communication. Furthermore, she was also able to convince a group of populist MPs to join the BSW. The article closes with a qualitative analysis of BSW’s manifesto that reveals how populist framing plays a major role in this document, in which the political and economic elites are accused of working against the interest of “the majority”. Based on this analysis, the classification of the BSW as a populist party seems to be appropriate. N2 - Die langjährige Stabilität des deutschen Parteiensystems wird aktuell durch eine neue links-konservative Partei herausgefordert: Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). Erste Umfragen deuten an, dass das BSW bundesweit bis zu 10 % der Stimmen gewinnen könnte. Die Einordnung als links-konservativ oder in Anlehnung an die englische Literatur links-autoritär wurde bereits medial intensiv diskutiert. Weniger Beachtung hat bislang die populistische Kommunikation von Wagenknecht gefunden. Die populistische Ansprache durch das BSW kann bei der Beantwortung der Frage behilflich sein, warum das BSW scheinbar gegensätzliche Gruppen wie Wähler:innen der Linken und der AfD gleichzeitig ansprechen kann, da populistische Einstellungen unter den Wähler:innen beider Parteien weit verbreitet sind. Der vorliegende Beitrag analysiert die Rolle der populistischen Kommunikation von Wagenknecht und dem BSW mithilfe qualitativer und quantitativer Methoden. Dazu wurden zunächst alle Reden (ca. 10.000) und alle Pressemitteilungen (ca. 19.000) aller Linken-Bundestagsabgeordneten der gesamten parlamentarischen Lebensdauer der Fraktion (2005–2023) untersucht. Die Ergebnisse dieser quantitativen Analyse zeigen, dass Wagenknecht unter den Linken-Abgeordneten mit Abstand am häufigsten populistische Kommunikationselemente einsetzte und sie ebenso in der Lage war, einige der populistischsten Abgeordneten zum BSW-Beitritt zu überreden. Der Artikel schließt mit einer qualitativen Auswertung der populistischen Rhetorik im BSW-Parteiprogramm. Es wird deutlich, dass hier insbesondere die Kritik an der Politik- und Wirtschaftselite eine wichtige Rolle spielt. Diese Elitenkritik wird mit einem starken Bevölkerungsbezug kombiniert, der beispielsweise in der Ansprache der „Mehrheit“ deutlich wird. Insgesamt erscheint damit die Klassifizierung als populistische Partei gerechtfertigt. KW - populism KW - Germany KW - BSW KW - mixed methods KW - new parties KW - Populismus KW - Deutschland KW - neue Parteien Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-024-00544-z SN - 0032-3470 SN - 1862-2860 PB - Springer VS CY - Wiesbaden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rockström, Johan A1 - Kotzé, Louis A1 - Milutinović, Svetlana A1 - Biermann, Frank A1 - Brovkin, Victor A1 - Donges, Jonathan A1 - Ebbesson, Jonas A1 - French, Duncan A1 - Gupta, Joyeeta A1 - Kim, Rakhyun A1 - Lenton, Timothy A1 - Lenzi, Dominic A1 - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa A1 - Neumann, Barbara A1 - Schuppert, Fabian A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Bosselmann, Klaus A1 - Folke, Carl A1 - Lucht, Wolfgang A1 - Schlosberg, David A1 - Richardson, Katherine A1 - Steffen, Will T1 - The planetary commons BT - a new paradigm for safeguarding earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America N2 - The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no- analogue tra­jectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework—the planetary commons—which differs from the global commons frame­work by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice. KW - anthropocene KW - earth system governance KW - global commons KW - international law KW - planetary boundaries Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301531121 SN - 1091-6490 SN - 1877-2014 VL - 121 IS - 5 PB - National Academy of Sciences CY - Washington, DC ER - TY - THES A1 - Blanz, Alkis T1 - Essays on the macroeconomics of climate change and policy Y1 - 2024 ER - TY - THES A1 - Feil, Hauke T1 - God, bad, or ugly: Does it really matter? BT - Unterstanding the linkage between the performance of development projects and the recipient country's policy and institutional environment N2 - Each year, donor countries spend billions of Euros on development cooperation. Not surprisingly, a large strand of research has emerged which examines the impact of development cooperation. A sub-discipline within this strand of the literature deals with the question of whether the impact or effectiveness of development cooperation depends on the quality of the recipient country's policy and institutional environment. Over hundreds of studies have assessed this question at the macro level. In so doing, most of these studies test whether a potential effect of aid on the growth of a recipient country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is conditional on the country's policy and institutional environment. However, even after decades of research and hundreds of studies, no conclusive result has been found. One of the main reasons for the inconclusive state of the literature is that most macro-level studies have to deal with a high risk of endogeneity, treat aid as nothing but a pure income transfer, and rely on low-quality GDP data. To solve these three methodical issues, some authors have started to change the analytical focus from the macro to the micro level. Thus, these authors assess the determinants for the performance of individual development projects instead of the determinants for an effect of aid on GDP. Yet, even though the number of studies focusing on the micro level has increased steadily over the last few years, the state of the literature on the determinants for the performance of development projects still contains multiple highly relevant research gaps. The present thesis seeks to address three of these research gaps. The first research gap addressed by this thesis is related to the specific type of development cooperation. So far, nearly all existing studies focus on projects by Multilateral Development Banks. Research on the determinants for the performance of bilateral development projects is still rare. Thus, even though donors pledge to implement effective development projects, there are hardly any micro-level studies on bilateral projects. So far, only three studies use a sample which includes bilateral projects. Yet, none of the three studies assess the determinants for the performance of bilateral technical development projects. The first paper in the present thesis (GIZ paper) seeks to address this research gap by assessing the determinants for the performance of projects by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), a bilateral state-owned aid agency active in the area of technical cooperation. The results of the paper indicate that some but not all of the existing theoretical arguments can be extended to bilateral technical projects as well.. For example, the level of market interventions in the recipient county only affects the performance of financial development projects, while the recipient country’s government capacity affects both technical and financial development projects. The paper also indicates that effects of determinants may vary among project sectors. The paper also highlights a dilemma of technical development cooperation. The countries with low government capacity are usually the ones most in need of technical cooperation projects. But, at the same time, they are also the countries in which these projects have the poorest performance The second research gap addressed by this thesis is related to one specific factor in the policy and institutional environment of recipient countries, namely corruption. This determinant is often cited as essential for project performance but has gained surprisingly little coverage in empirical studies. The few existing studies on the effect of corruption on project performance are inconclusive. Some find a statistically significant correlation, while others do not. Furthermore, so far, all existing studies use corruption perception indices as a measurement for corruption, despite the fact that these indices have well-known deficits when it comes to this research topic. One of these deficits is that such indices do not distinguish between different forms of corruption, even though it is likely that the effect of corruption will vary depending on the type of development project and form of corruption. The second paper in this thesis (Corruption paper) seeks to address this inconclusive state of the research while focusing on one specific form of corruption, namely bribery between private firms and public officials. The paper finds a small but statistically significant correlation between the corruption level and the performance of World Bank projects. The systematic effect of corruption on project performance confirms the need to consider the risk of corruption in the design and during the implementation of projects. Nonetheless, the relatively small effect of corruption and the low pseudo R-squareds advise not to overestimate the relevance of corruption for project performance. At least for the project level, the paper finds no indication that corruption is a primary obstacle to aid effectiveness. The third research gap addressed by this thesis is related to one specific sample, namely recipient countries of the International Development Association (IDA). The question of whether the policy and institutional environment affects project performance is of particular relevance for these countries, given that the World Bank's ratings on a country's policy and institutional environment decide how much IDA resources it receives. One core justification of such an allocation system is that it helps to steer more resources to places where they are most effective. However, so far, there is no conclusive empirical evidence for this statement. The only study specifically focusing on this topic, a study by the Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank from 2010, has essential methodological limitations. The third paper of this thesis (CPR paper) seeks to address this research gap by testing whether a more refined analysis confirms the assumption of previous studies that the policy and institutional environment of IDA-recipient countries, measured by the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment ratings, has an effect on the performance of World Bank projects. Overall, neither the main regression models nor any of the robustness tests indicate a substantial correlation between the policy and institutional environment and project performance. Only for Investments Loans is the coefficient large enough to assume some effect. The overall results not only contradict the results of previous studies, but also raise strong doubts around one of the core justifications for the allocation system of the IDA. All three papers rely on a statistical large-N analysis of the performance ratings of individual development projects. These ratings are usually assigned based on the final evaluation of a project and indicate the merit or worth of an activity. The merit or worth of an activity itself is measured by criteria like relevance, effectiveness, and efficiency. In the case of the two papers on World Bank projects, the needed data stem from different databases of the World Bank. The relevant data for the GIZ paper are gathered from internal evaluation reports of the GIZ. Logistic regressions are applied as the main analytical tool. Overall, the three papers show that the policy and institutional environment of recipient countries matters for project performance, but only to a small degree and under certain circumstances. This result highlights that many researchers and practitioners tend to overestimate the role that the policy and institutional environment of recipient countries plays in project performance. Furthermore, the thesis shows that authors of future studies should consider possible interactions between project- and country-level determinants whenever possible, both in their theoretical arguments and statistical models. Otherwise, the debate on the determinants for project performance is at risk of degenerating into a statistics tournament without any connection to reality. KW - Development cooperation KW - development projects KW - aid effectiveness KW - GIZ KW - World Bank KW - corruption KW - aid allocation Y1 - 2019 CY - Potsdam ER -