TY  - JOUR
A1  - Martin-Lopez, Berta
A1  - Leister, Ines
A1  - Cruz, Pedro Lorenzo
A1  - Palomo, Ignacio
A1  - Gret-Regamey, Adrienne
A1  - Harrison, Paula A.
A1  - Lavorel, Sandra
A1  - Locatelli, Bruno
A1  - Luque, Sandra
A1  - Walz, Ariane
T1  - Nature’s contributions to people in mountains
BT  - a review
JF  - PLoS one
N2  - Mountains play a key role in the provision of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) worldwide that support societies’ quality of life. Simultaneously, mountains are threatened by multiple drivers of change. Due to the complex interlinkages between biodiversity, quality of life and drivers of change, research on NCP in mountains requires interdisciplinary approaches. In this study, we used the conceptual framework of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) and the notion of NCP to determine to what extent previous research on ecosystem services in mountains has explored the different components of the IPBES conceptual framework. We conducted a systematic review of articles on ecosystem services in mountains published up to 2016 using the Web of Science and Scopus databases. Descriptive statistical and network analyses were conducted to explore the level of research on the components of the IPBES framework and their interactions. Our results show that research has gradually become more interdisciplinary by studying higher number of NCP, dimensions of quality of life, and indirect drivers of change. Yet, research focusing on biodiversity, regulating NCP and direct drivers has decreased over time. Furthermore, despite the fact that research on NCP in mountains becoming more policy-oriented over time, mainly in relation to payments for ecosystem services, institutional responses remained underexplored in the reviewed studies. Finally, we discuss the relevant knowledge gaps that should be addressed in future research in order to contribute to IPBES.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217847
SN  - 1932-6203
VL  - 14
IS  - 6
PB  - PLoS
CY  - San Fransisco
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Schoonover, Heather A.
A1  - Gret-Regamey, Adrienne
A1  - Metzger, Marc J.
A1  - Ruiz-Frau, Ana
A1  - Santos-Reis, Margarida
A1  - Scholte, Samantha S. K.
A1  - Walz, Ariane
A1  - Nicholas, Kimberly A.
T1  - Creating space, aligning motivations, and building trust
BT  - a practical framework for stakeholder engagement based on experience in 12 ecosystem services case studies
JF  - Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability
N2  - Ecosystem services inherently involve people, whose values help define the benefits of nature's services. It is thus important for researchers to involve stakeholders in ecosystem services research. However, a simple and practicable framework to guide such engagement, and in particular to help researchers anticipate and consider key issues and challenges, has not been well explored. Here, we use experience from the 12 case studies in the European Operational Potential of Ecosystem Research Applications (OPERAs) project to propose a stakeholder engagement framework comprising three key elements: creating space, aligning motivations, and building trust. We argue that involving stakeholders in research demands thoughtful reflection from the researchers about what kind of space they want to create, including if and how they want to bring different interests together, how much space they want to allow for critical discussion, and whether there is a role for particular stakeholders to serve as conduits between others. In addition, understanding their own motivations—including values, knowledge, goals, and desired benefits—will help researchers decide when and how to involve stakeholders, identify areas of common ground and potential disagreement, frame the project appropriately, set expectations, and ensure each party is able to see benefits of engaging with each other. Finally, building relationships with stakeholders can be difficult but considering the roles of existing relationships, time, approach, reputation, and belonging can help build mutual trust. Although the three key elements and the paths between them can play out differently depending on the particular research project, we suggest that a research design that considers how to create the space in which researchers and stakeholders will meet, align motivations between researchers and stakeholders, and build mutual trust will help foster productive researcher–stakeholder relationships.
KW  - cocreated knowledge
KW  - ecosystem services
KW  - participatory research
KW  - research design
KW  - stakeholder engagement
KW  - transdisciplinary research
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10061-240111
SN  - 1708-3087
VL  - 24
IS  - 1
PB  - Resilience Alliance
CY  - Wolfville
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Muster, Sina
A1  - Riley, William J.
A1  - Roth, Kurt
A1  - Langer, Moritz
A1  - Aleina, Fabio Cresto
A1  - Koven, Charles D.
A1  - Lange, Stephan
A1  - Bartsch, Annett
A1  - Grosse, Guido
A1  - Wilson, Cathy J.
A1  - Jones, Benjamin M.
A1  - Boike, Julia
T1  - Size distributions of arctic waterbodies reveal consistent relations in their statistical moments in space and time
JF  - Frontiers in Earth Science
N2  - Arctic lowlands are characterized by large numbers of small waterbodies, which are known to affect surface energy budgets and the global carbon cycle. Statistical analysis of their size distributions has been hindered by the shortage of observations at sufficiently high spatial resolutions. This situation has now changed with the high-resolution (<5 m) circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database recently becoming available. We have used this database to make the first consistent, high-resolution estimation of Arctic waterbody size distributions, with surface areas ranging from 0.0001 km(2) (100 m(2)) to 1 km(2). We found that the size distributions varied greatly across the thirty study regions investigated and that there was no single universal size distribution function (including power-law distribution functions) appropriate across all of the study regions. We did, however, find close relationships between the statistical moments (mean, variance, and skewness) of the waterbody size distributions from different study regions. Specifically, we found that the spatial variance increased linearly with mean waterbody size (R-2 = 0.97, p < 2.2e-16) and that the skewness decreased approximately hyperbolically. We have demonstrated that these relationships (1) hold across the 30 Arctic study regions covering a variety of (bio)climatic and permafrost zones, (2) hold over time in two of these study regions for which multi-decadal satellite imagery is available, and (3) can be reproduced by simulating rising water levels in a high-resolution digital elevation model. The consistent spatial and temporal relationships between the statistical moments of the waterbody size distributions underscore the dominance of topographic controls in lowland permafrost areas. These results provide motivation for further analyses of the factors involved in waterbody development and spatial distribution and for investigations into the possibility of using statistical moments to predict future hydrologic dynamics in the Arctic.
KW  - permafrost
KW  - hydrology
KW  - waterbodies
KW  - size distribution
KW  - thermokarst
KW  - statistical moments
KW  - ponds
KW  - lakes
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00005
SN  - 2296-6463
VL  - 7
PB  - Frontiers Research Foundation
CY  - Lausanne
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Barbosa, Luis Romero
A1  - de Lira, Nicholas Borges
A1  - Rabelo Coelho, Victor Hugo
A1  - Bernard Passerat de Silans, Alain Marie
A1  - Gadelha, Andre Nobrega
A1  - Almeida, Cristiano das Neves
T1  - Stability of Soil Moisture Patterns Retrieved at Different Temporal Resolutions in a Tropical Watershed
JF  - Revista brasileira de ciencias do solo
N2  - Above and underground hydrological processes depend on soil moisture (SM) variability, driven by different environmental factors that seldom are well-monitored, leading to a misunderstanding of soil water temporal patterns. This study investigated the stability of the SM temporal dynamics to different monitoring temporal resolutions around the border between two soil types in a tropical watershed. Four locations were instrumented in a small-scale watershed (5.84 km(2)) within the tropical coast of Northeast Brazil, encompassing different soil types (Espodossolo Humiluvico or Carbic Podzol, and Argissolo Vermelho-Amarelo or Haplic Acrisol), land covers (Atlantic Forest, bush vegetation, and grassland) and topographies (flat and moderate slope). The SM was monitored at a temporal resolution of one hour along the 2013-2014 hydrological year and then resampled a resolutions of 6 h, 12 h, 1 day, 2 days, 4 days, 7 days, and 15 days. Descriptive statistics, temporal variability, time-stability ranking, and hierarchical clustering revealed uneven associations among SM time components. The results show that the time-invariant component ruled SM temporal variability over the time-varying parcel, either at high or low temporal resolutions. Time-steps longer than 2 days affected the mean statistical metrics of the SM time-variant parcel. Additionally, SM at downstream and upstream sites behaved differently, suggesting that the temporal mean was regulated by steady soil properties (slope, restrictive layer, and soil texture), whereas their temporal anomalies were driven by climate (rainfall) and hydrogeological (groundwater level) factors. Therefore, it is concluded that around the border between tropical soil types, the distinct behaviour of time-variant and time-invariant components of SM time series reflects different combinations of their soil properties.
KW  - soil moisture variability
KW  - time-domain reflectometry
KW  - temporal resolution
KW  - Carbic Podzol
KW  - Haplic Acrisol
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1590/18069657rbcs20180236
SN  - 0100-0683
VL  - 43
PB  - Sociedade Brasileira de Ciencia do Solo
CY  - Vicosa
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Park, Jungsu
A1  - Batalla, Ramon J.
A1  - Birgand, Francois
A1  - Esteves, Michel
A1  - Gentile, Francesco
A1  - Harrington, Joseph R.
A1  - Navratil, Oldrich
A1  - Lopez-Tarazon, José Andrés
A1  - Vericat, Damia
T1  - Influences of Catchment and River Channel Characteristics on the Magnitude and Dynamics of Storage and Re-Suspension of Fine Sediments in River Beds
JF  - Water
N2  - Fine particles or sediments are one of the important variables that should be considered for the proper management of water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In the present study, the effect of catchment characteristics on the performance of an already developed model for the estimation of fine sediments dynamics between the water column and sediment bed was tested, using 13 catchments distributed worldwide. The model was calibrated to determine two optimal model parameters. The first is the filtration parameter, which represents the filtration of fine sediments through pores of the stream bed during the recession period of a flood event. The second parameter is the bed erosion parameter that represents the active layer, directly related to the re-suspension of fine sediments during a flood event. A dependency of the filtration parameter with the catchment area was observed in catchments smaller than 100 km(2), whereas no particular relationship was observed for larger catchments (>100 km(2)). In contrast, the bed erosion parameter does not show a noticeable dependency with the area or other environmental characteristics. The model estimated the mass of fine sediments released from the sediment bed to the water column during flood events in the 13 catchments within 23% bias.
KW  - bed erosion
KW  - catchment area
KW  - filtration
KW  - sediment accumulation
KW  - sediment bed fluidization
KW  - sediment re-suspension
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w11050878
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 11
IS  - 5
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Irrgang, Anna Maria
A1  - Lantuit, Hugues
A1  - Gordon, Richard R.
A1  - Piskor, Ashley
A1  - Manson, Gavin K.
T1  - Impacts of past and future coastal changes on the Yukon coast - threats for cultural sites, infrastructure, and travel routes
JF  - Arctic Science
N2  - Yukon’s Beaufort coast, Canada, is a highly dynamic landscape. Cultural sites, infrastructure, and travel routes used by the local population are particularly vulnerable to coastal erosion. To assess threats to these phenomena, rates of shoreline change for a 210 km length of the coast were analyzed and combined with socioeconomic and cultural information. Rates of shoreline change were derived from aerial and satellite imagery from the 1950s, 1970s, 1990s, and 2011. Using these data, conservative (S1) and dynamic (S2) shoreline projections were constructed to predict shoreline positions for the year 2100. The locations of cultural features in the archives of a Parks Canada database, the Yukon Archaeological Program, and as reported in other literature were combined with projected shoreline position changes. Between 2011 and 2100, approximately 850 ha (S1) and 2660 ha (S2) may erode, resulting in a loss of 45% (S1) to 61% (S2) of all cultural features by 2100. The last large, actively used camp area and two nearshore landing strips will likely be threatened by future coastal processes. Future coastal erosion and sedimentation processes are expected to increasingly threaten cultural sites and influence travelling and living along the Yukon coast.
KW  - Arctic coastal dynamics
KW  - permafrost coast
KW  - shoreline projection
KW  - Inuvialuit cultural features
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2017-0041
SN  - 2368-7460
VL  - 5
IS  - 2
SP  - 107
EP  - 126
PB  - Canadian Science Publishing
CY  - Ottawa
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Corti, Giacomo
A1  - Cioni, Raffaello
A1  - Franceschini, Zara
A1  - Sani, Federico
A1  - Scaillet, Stephane
A1  - Molin, Paola
A1  - Isola, Ilaria
A1  - Mazzarini, Francesco
A1  - Brune, Sascha
A1  - Keir, Derek
A1  - Erbello Doelesso, Asfaw
A1  - Muluneh, Ameha
A1  - Illsley-Kemp, Finnigan
A1  - Glerum, Anne
T1  - Aborted propagation of the Ethiopian rift caused by linkage with the Kenyan rift
JF  - Nature Communications
N2  - Continental rift systems form by propagation of isolated rift segments that interact, and eventually evolve into continuous zones of deformation. This process impacts many aspects of rifting including rift morphology at breakup, and eventual ocean-ridge segmentation. Yet, rift segment growth and interaction remain enigmatic. Here we present geological data from the poorly documented Ririba rift (South Ethiopia) that reveals how two major sectors of the East African rift, the Kenyan and Ethiopian rifts, interact. We show that the Ririba rift formed from the southward propagation of the Ethiopian rift during the Pliocene but this propagation was short-lived and aborted close to the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary. Seismicity data support the abandonment of laterally offset, overlapping tips of the Ethiopian and Kenyan rifts. Integration with new numerical models indicates that rift abandonment resulted from progressive focusing of the tectonic and magmatic activity into an oblique, throughgoing rift zone of near pure extension directly connecting the rift sectors.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09335-2
SN  - 2041-1723
VL  - 10
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Fairey, Brenton J.
A1  - Timmerman, Martin Jan
A1  - Sudo, Masafumi
A1  - Tsikos, Harilaos
T1  - The role of hydrothermal activity in the formation of Karst-hosted manganese deposits of the Postmasburg Mn Field, Northern Cape Province, South Africa
JF  - Minerals
N2  - The Postmasburg Manganese Field (PMF), Northern Cape Province, South Africa, once represented one of the largest sources of manganese ore worldwide. Two belts of manganese ore deposits have been distinguished in the PMF, namely the Western Belt of ferruginous manganese ores and the Eastern Belt of siliceous manganese ores. Prevailing models of ore formation in these two belts invoke karstification of manganese-rich dolomites and residual accumulation of manganese wad which later underwent diagenetic and low-grade metamorphic processes. For the most part, the role of hydrothermal processes and metasomatic alteration towards ore formation has not been adequately discussed. Here we report an abundance of common and some rare Al-, Na-, K- and Ba-bearing minerals, particularly aegirine, albite, microcline, banalsite, serandite-pectolite, paragonite and natrolite in Mn ores of the PMF, indicative of hydrothermal influence. Enrichments in Na, K and/or Ba in the ores are generally on a percentage level for most samples analysed through bulk-rock techniques. The presence of As-rich tokyoite also suggests the presence of As and V in the hydrothermal fluid. The fluid was likely oxidized and alkaline in nature, akin to a mature basinal brine. Various replacement textures, particularly of Na- and K- rich minerals by Ba-bearing phases, suggest sequential deposition of gangue as well as ore-minerals from the hydrothermal fluid, with Ba phases being deposited at a later stage. The stratigraphic variability of the studied ores and their deviation from the strict classification of ferruginous and siliceous ores in the literature, suggests that a re-evaluation of genetic models is warranted. New Ar-Ar ages for K-feldspars suggest a late Neoproterozoic timing for hydrothermal activity. This corroborates previous geochronological evidence for regional hydrothermal activity that affected Mn ores at the PMF but also, possibly, the high-grade Mn ores of the Kalahari Manganese Field to the north. A revised, all-encompassing model for the development of the manganese deposits of the PMF is then proposed, whereby the source of metals is attributed to underlying carbonate rocks beyond the Reivilo Formation of the Campbellrand Subgroup. The main process by which metals are primarily accumulated is attributed to karstification of the dolomitic substrate. The overlying Asbestos Hills Subgroup banded iron formation (BIF) is suggested as a potential source of alkali metals, which also provides a mechanism for leaching of these BIFs to form high-grade residual iron ore deposits.
KW  - manganese ore
KW  - Postmasburg manganese field
KW  - hydrothermal
KW  - karst
KW  - South Africa
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/min9070408
SN  - 2075-163X
VL  - 9
IS  - 7
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Schmidt, Martin
A1  - Nendel, Claas
A1  - Funk, Roger
A1  - Mitchell, Matthew G. E.
A1  - Lischeid, Gunnar
T1  - Modeling Yields Response to Shading in the Field-to-Forest Transition Zones in Heterogeneous Landscapes
JF  - Agriculture
N2  - In crop modeling and yield predictions, the heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes is usually not accounted for. This heterogeneity often arises from landscape elements like forests, hedges, or single trees and shrubs that cast shadows. Shading from forested areas or shrubs has effects on transpiration, temperature, and soil moisture, all of which affect the crop yield in the adjacent arable land. Transitional gradients of solar irradiance can be described as a function of the distance to the zero line (edge), the cardinal direction, and the height of trees. The magnitude of yield reduction in transition zones is highly influenced by solar irradiance-a factor that is not yet implemented in crop growth models on a landscape level. We present a spatially explicit model for shading caused by forested areas, in agricultural landscapes. With increasing distance to forest, solar irradiance and yield increase. Our model predicts that the shading effect from the forested areas occurs up to 15 m from the forest edge, for the simulated wheat yields, and up to 30 m, for simulated maize. Moreover, we estimated the spatial extent of transition zones, to calculate the regional yield reduction caused by shading of the forest edges, which amounted to 5% to 8% in an exemplary region.
KW  - edge effect
KW  - transition zone
KW  - solar irradiance
KW  - crop growth
KW  - maize
KW  - wheat
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture9010006
SN  - 2077-0472
VL  - 9
IS  - 1
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Freymark, Jessica
A1  - Bott, Judith
A1  - Cacace, Mauro
A1  - Ziegler, Moritz 0.
A1  - Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena
T1  - Influence of the Main Border Faults on the 3D Hydraulic Field of the Central Upper Rhine Graben
JF  - Geofluids
N2  - The Upper Rhine Graben (URG) is an active rift with a high geothermal potential. Despite being a well-studied area, the three-dimensional interaction of the main controlling factors of the thermal and hydraulic regime is still not fully understood. Therefore, we have used a data-based 3D structural model of the lithological configuration of the central URG for some conceptual numerical experiments of 3D coupled simulations of fluid and heat transport. To assess the influence of the main faults bordering the graben on the hydraulic and the deep thermal field, we carried out a sensitivity analysis on fault width and permeability. Depending on the assigned width and permeability of the main border faults, fluid velocity and temperatures are affected only in the direct proximity of the respective border faults. Hence, the hydraulic characteristics of these major faults do not significantly influence the graben-wide groundwater flow patterns. Instead, the different scenarios tested provide a consistent image of the main characteristics of fluid and heat transport as they have in common: (1) a topography-driven basin-wide fluid flow perpendicular to the rift axis from the graben shoulders to the rift center, (2) a N/NE-directed flow parallel to the rift axis in the center of the rift and, (3) a pronounced upflow of hot fluids along the rift central axis, where the streams from both sides of the rift merge. This upflow axis is predicted to occur predominantly in the center of the URG (northern and southern model area) and shifted towards the eastern boundary fault (central model area).
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/7520714
SN  - 1468-8115
SN  - 1468-8123
PB  - Wiley-Hindawi
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Didovets, Iulii
A1  - Krysanova, Valentina
A1  - Bürger, Gerd
A1  - Snizhko, Sergiy
A1  - Balabukh, Vira
A1  - Bronstert, Axel
T1  - Climate change impact on regional floods in the Carpathian region
JF  - Journal of hydrology : Regional studies
N2  - Study region: Tisza and Prut catchments, originating on the slopes of the Carpathian mountains. Study focus: The study reported here investigates (i) climate change impacts on flood risk in the region, and (ii) uncertainty related to hydrological modelling, downscaling techniques and climate projections. The climate projections used in the study were derived from five GCMs, downscaled either dynamically with RCMs or with the statistical downscaling model XDS. The resulting climate change scenarios were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was calibrated and validated for the catchments in advance using observed climate and hydrological data. The changes in the 30-year flood hazards and 98 and 95 percentiles of discharge were evaluated for the far future period (2071-2100) in comparison with the reference period (1981-2010). New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of model outputs under RCP 4.5 show a small to strong increase of the 30-year flood level in the Tisza ranging from 4.5% to 62%, and moderate increase in the Prut ranging from 11% to 22%. The impact results under RCP 8.5 are more uncertain with changes in both directions due to high uncertainties in GCM-RCM climate projections, downscaling methods and the low density of available climate stations.
KW  - Climate change impact
KW  - Floods
KW  - Hydrological modelling
KW  - SWIM
KW  - Tisza
KW  - Prut
KW  - Carpathians
KW  - Ukraine
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.01.002
SN  - 2214-5818
VL  - 22
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - von Specht, Sebastian
A1  - Öztürk, Ugur
A1  - Veh, Georg
A1  - Cotton, Fabrice
A1  - Korup, Oliver
T1  - Effects of finite source rupture on landslide triggering
BT  - the 2016 M-w 7.1 Kumamoto earthquake
JF  - Solid earth
N2  - The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M-w 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies < 2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019
SN  - 1869-9510
SN  - 1869-9529
VL  - 10
IS  - 2
SP  - 463
EP  - 486
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Haber-Pohlmeier, Sabina
A1  - Tötzke, Christian
A1  - Lehmann, E.
A1  - Kardjilov, Nikolay
A1  - Pohlmeier, A.
A1  - Oswald, Sascha
T1  - Combination of magnetic resonance imaging and neutron computed tomography for three-dimensional rhizosphere imaging
JF  - Vadose zone journal
N2  - Core Ideas

    3D MRI relaxation time maps reflect water mobility in root, rhizosphere, and soil.
    3D NCT water content maps of the same plant complement relaxation time maps.
    The relaxation time T1 decreases from soil to root, whereas water content increases.
    Parameters together indicate modification of rhizosphere pore space by gel phase.
    The zone of reduced T1 corresponds to the zone remaining dry after rewetting.

In situ investigations of the rhizosphere require high‐resolution imaging techniques, which allow a look into the optically opaque soil compartment. We present the novel combination of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neutron computed tomography (NCT) to achieve synergistic information such as water mobility in terms of three‐dimensional (3D) relaxation time maps and total water content maps. Besides a stationary MRI scanner for relaxation time mapping, we used a transportable MRI system on site in the NCT facility to capture rhizosphere properties before desiccation and after subsequent rewetting. First, we addressed two questions using water‐filled test capillaries between 0.1 and 5 mm: which root diameters can still be detected by both methods, and to what extent are defined interfaces blurred by these imaging techniques? Going to real root system architecture, we demonstrated the sensitivity of the transportable MRI device by co‐registration with NCT and additional validation using X‐ray computed tomography. Under saturated conditions, we observed for the rhizosphere in situ a zone with shorter T1 relaxation time across a distance of about 1 mm that was not caused by reduced water content, as proven by successive NCT measurements. We conclude that the effective pore size in the pore network had changed, induced by a gel phase. After rewetting, NCT images showed a dry zone persisting while the MRI intensity inside the root increased considerably, indicating water uptake from the surrounding bulk soil through the still hydrophobic rhizosphere. Overall, combining NCT and MRI allows a more detailed analysis of the rhizosphere's functioning.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2018.09.0166
SN  - 1539-1663
VL  - 18
IS  - 1
PB  - Soil Science Society of America
CY  - Madison
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Jing, Miao
A1  - Hesse, Falk
A1  - Kumar, Rohini
A1  - Kolditz, Olaf
A1  - Kalbacher, Thomas
A1  - Attinger, Sabine
T1  - Influence of input and parameter uncertainty on the prediction of catchment-scale groundwater travel time distributions
JF  - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS
N2  - Groundwater travel time distributions (TTDs) provide a robust description of the subsurface mixing behavior and hydrological response of a subsurface system. Lagrangian particle tracking is often used to derive the groundwater TTDs. The reliability of this approach is subjected to the uncertainty of external forcings, internal hydraulic properties, and the interplay between them. Here, we evaluate the uncertainty of catchment groundwater TTDs in an agricultural catchment using a 3-D groundwater model with an overall focus on revealing the relationship between external forcing, internal hydraulic properties, and TTD predictions. Eight recharge realizations are sampled from a high-resolution dataset of land surface fluxes and states. Calibration-constrained hydraulic conductivity fields (Ks fields) are stochastically generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) method for each recharge realization. The random walk particle tracking (RWPT) method is used to track the pathways of particles and compute travel times. Moreover, an analytical model under the random sampling (RS) assumption is fit against the numerical solutions, serving as a reference for the mixing behavior of the model domain. The StorAge Selection (SAS) function is used to interpret the results in terms of quantifying the systematic preference for discharging young/old water. The simulation results reveal the primary effect of recharge on the predicted mean travel time (MTT). The different realizations of calibration-constrained Ks fields moderately magnify or attenuate the predicted MTTs. The analytical model does not properly replicate the numerical solution, and it underestimates the mean travel time. Simulated SAS functions indicate an overall preference for young water for all realizations. The spatial pattern of recharge controls the shape and breadth of simulated TTDs and SAS functions by changing the spatial distribution of particles' pathways. In conclusion, overlooking the spatial nonuniformity and uncertainty of input (forcing) will result in biased travel time predictions. We also highlight the worth of reliable observations in reducing predictive uncertainty and the good interpretability of SAS functions in terms of understanding catchment transport processes.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-171-2019
SN  - 1027-5606
SN  - 1607-7938
VL  - 23
IS  - 1
SP  - 171
EP  - 190
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Rözer, Viktor
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
A1  - Schröter, Kai
A1  - Müller, Meike
A1  - Sairam, Nivedita
A1  - Doss-Gollin, James
A1  - Lall, Upmanu
A1  - Merz, Bruno
T1  - Probabilistic Models Significantly Reduce Uncertainty in Hurricane Harvey Pluvial Flood Loss Estimates
JF  - Earths future
N2  - Pluvial flood risk is mostly excluded in urban flood risk assessment. However, the risk of pluvial flooding is a growing challenge with a projected increase of extreme rainstorms compounding with an ongoing global urbanization. Considered as a flood type with minimal impacts when rainfall rates exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, the aftermath of rainfall-triggered flooding during Hurricane Harvey and other events show the urgent need to assess the risk of pluvial flooding. Due to the local extent and small-scale variations, the quantification of pluvial flood risk requires risk assessments on high spatial resolutions. While flood hazard and exposure information is becoming increasingly accurate, the estimation of losses is still a poorly understood component of pluvial flood risk quantification. We use a new probabilistic multivariable modeling approach to estimate pluvial flood losses of individual buildings, explicitly accounting for the associated uncertainties. Except for the water depth as the common most important predictor, we identified the drivers for having loss or not and for the degree of loss to be different. Applying this approach to estimate and validate building structure losses during Hurricane Harvey using a property level data set, we find that the reliability and dispersion of predictive loss distributions vary widely depending on the model and aggregation level of property level loss estimates. Our results show that the use of multivariable zero-inflated beta models reduce the 90% prediction intervalsfor Hurricane Harvey building structure loss estimates on average by 78% (totalling U.S.$3.8 billion) compared to commonly used models.
KW  - pluvial flooding
KW  - loss modeling
KW  - urban flooding
KW  - probabilistic
KW  - Hurricane Harvey
KW  - climate change adaptation
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001074
SN  - 2328-4277
VL  - 7
IS  - 4
SP  - 384
EP  - 394
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Steirou, Eva
A1  - Gerlitz, Lars
A1  - Apel, Heiko
A1  - Sun, Xun
A1  - Merz, Bruno
T1  - Climate influences on flood probabilities across Europe
JF  - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS
N2  - The link between streamflow extremes and climatology has been widely studied in recent decades. However, a study investigating the effect of large-scale circulation variations on the distribution of seasonal discharge extremes at the European level is missing. Here we fit a climate-informed generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to about 600 streamflow records in Europe for each of the standard seasons, i.e., to winter, spring, summer and autumn maxima, and compare it with the classical GEV distribution with parameters invariant in time. The study adopts a Bayesian framework and covers the period 1950 to 2016. Five indices with proven influence on the European climate are examined independently as covariates, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern (EA), the east Atlantic-western Russian pattern (EA/WR), the Scandinavia pattern (SCA) and the polar-Eurasian pattern (POL). It is found that for a high percentage of stations the climate-informed model is preferred to the classical model. Particularly for NAO during winter, a strong influence on streamflow extremes is detected for large parts of Europe (preferred to the classical GEV distribution for 46% of the stations). Climate-informed fits are characterized by spatial coherence and form patterns that resemble relations between the climate indices and seasonal precipitation, suggesting a prominent role of the considered circulation modes for flood generation. For certain regions, such as northwestern Scandinavia and the British Isles, yearly variations of the mean seasonal climate indices result in considerably different extreme value distributions and thus in highly different flood estimates for individual years that can also persist for longer time periods.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019
SN  - 1027-5606
SN  - 1607-7938
VL  - 23
IS  - 3
SP  - 1305
EP  - 1322
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sairam, Nivedita
A1  - Schröter, Kai
A1  - Lüdtke, Stefan
A1  - Merz, Bruno
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
T1  - Quantifying Flood Vulnerability Reduction via Private Precaution
JF  - Earth future
N2  - Private precaution is an important component in contemporary flood risk management and climate adaptation. However, quantitative knowledge about vulnerability reduction via private precautionary measures is scarce and their effects are hardly considered in loss modeling and risk assessments. However, this is a prerequisite to enable temporally dynamic flood damage and risk modeling, and thus the evaluation of risk management and adaptation strategies. To quantify the average reduction in vulnerability of residential buildings via private precaution empirical vulnerability data (n = 948) is used. Households with and without precautionary measures undertaken before the flood event are classified into treatment and nontreatment groups and matched. Postmatching regression is used to quantify the treatment effect. Additionally, we test state-of-the-art flood loss models regarding their capability to capture this difference in vulnerability. The estimated average treatment effect of implementing private precaution is between 11 and 15 thousand EUR per household, confirming the significant effectiveness of private precautionary measures in reducing flood vulnerability. From all tested flood loss models, the expert Bayesian network-based model BN-FLEMOps and the rule-based loss model FLEMOps perform best in capturing the difference in vulnerability due to private precaution. Thus, the use of such loss models is suggested for flood risk assessments to effectively support evaluations and decision making for adaptable flood risk management.
KW  - flood loss
KW  - average treatment effect
KW  - matching methods
KW  - loss models
KW  - risk analysis
KW  - adaptation
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000994
SN  - 2328-4277
VL  - 7
IS  - 3
SP  - 235
EP  - 249
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Herzschuh, Ulrike
A1  - Cao, Xianyong
A1  - Laepple, Thomas
A1  - Dallmeyer, Anne
A1  - Telford, Richard J.
A1  - Ni, Jian
A1  - Chen, Fahu
A1  - Kong, Zhaochen
A1  - Liu, Guangxiu
A1  - Liu, Kam-Biu
A1  - Liu, Xingqi
A1  - Stebich, Martina
A1  - Tang, Lingyu
A1  - Tian, Fang
A1  - Wang, Yongbo
A1  - Wischnewski, Juliane
A1  - Xu, Qinghai
A1  - Yan, Shun
A1  - Yang, Zhenjing
A1  - Yu, Ge
A1  - Zhang, Yun
A1  - Zhao, Yan
A1  - Zheng, Zhuo
T1  - Position and orientation of the westerly jet determined Holocene rainfall patterns in China
JF  - Nature Communications
N2  - Proxy-based reconstructions and modeling of Holocene spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for China and Mongolia have hitherto yielded contradictory results indicating that the basic mechanisms behind the East Asian Summer Monsoon and its interaction with the westerly jet stream remain poorly understood. We present quantitative reconstructions of Holocene precipitation derived from 101 fossil pollen records and analyse them with the help of a minimal empirical model. We show that the westerly jet-stream axis shifted gradually southward and became less tilted since the middle Holocene. This was tracked by the summer monsoon rain band resulting in an early-Holocene precipitation maximum over most of western China, a mid-Holocene maximum in north-central and northeastern China, and a late-Holocene maximum in southeastern China. Our results suggest that a correct simulation of the orientation and position of the westerly jet stream is crucial to the reliable prediction of precipitation patterns in China and Mongolia.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09866-8
SN  - 2041-1723
VL  - 10
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Costa Tomaz de Souza, Arthur
A1  - Ayzel, Georgy
A1  - Heistermann, Maik
T1  - Quantifying the location error of precipitation nowcasts
JF  - Advances in meteorology
N2  - In precipitation nowcasting, it is common to track the motion of precipitation in a sequence of weather radar images and to extrapolate this motion into the future. The total error of such a prediction consists of an error in the predicted location of a precipitation feature and an error in the change of precipitation intensity over lead time. So far, verification measures did not allow isolating the extent of location errors, making it difficult to specifically improve nowcast models with regard to location prediction. In this paper, we introduce a framework to directly quantify the location error. To that end, we detect and track scale-invariant precipitation features (corners) in radar images. We then consider these observed tracks as the true reference in order to evaluate the performance (or, inversely, the error) of any model that aims to predict the future location of a precipitation feature. Hence, the location error of a forecast at any lead time Delta t ahead of the forecast time t corresponds to the Euclidean distance between the observed and the predicted feature locations at t + Delta t. Based on this framework, we carried out a benchmarking case study using one year worth of weather radar composites of the German Weather Service. We evaluated the performance of four extrapolation models, two of which are based on the linear extrapolation of corner motion from t - 1 to t (LK-Lin1) and t - 4 to t (LK-Lin4) and the other two are based on the Dense Inverse Search (DIS) method: motion vectors obtained from DIS are used to predict feature locations by linear (DIS-Lin1) and Semi-Lagrangian extrapolation (DIS-Rot1). Of those four models, DIS-Lin1 and LK-Lin4 turned out to be the most skillful with regard to the prediction of feature location, while we also found that the model skill dramatically depends on the sinuosity of the observed tracks. The dataset of 376,125 detected feature tracks in 2016 is openly available to foster the improvement of location prediction in extrapolation-based nowcasting models.
KW  - inuosity
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8841913
SN  - 1687-9309
SN  - 1687-9317
VL  - 2020
PB  - Hindawi
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Oguntunde, Philip G.
A1  - Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph
A1  - Lischeid, Gunnar
A1  - Abatan, Abayomi A.
T1  - Droughts projection over the Niger and Volta River basins of West Africa at specific global warming levels
JF  - International Journal of Climatology
N2  - This study investigates possible impacts of four global warming levels (GWLs: GWL1.5, GWL2.0, GWL2.5, and GWL3.0) on drought characteristics over Niger River basin (NRB) and Volta River basin (VRB). Two drought indices-Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)-were employed in characterizing droughts in 20 multi-model simulation outputs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The performance of the simulation in reproducing basic hydro-climatological features and severe drought characteristics (i.e., magnitude and frequency) in the basins were evaluated. The projected changes in the future drought frequency were quantified and compared under the four GWLs for two climate forcing scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). The regional climate model (RCM) ensemble gives a realistic simulation of historical hydro-climatological variables needed to calculate the drought indices. With SPEI, the simulation ensemble projects an increase in the magnitude and frequency of severe droughts over both basins (NRB and VRB) at all GWLs, but the increase, which grows with the GWLs, is higher over NRB than over VRB. More than 75% of the simulations agree on the projected increase at GWL1.5 and all simulations agree on the increase at higher GWLs. With SPI, the projected changes in severe drought is weaker and the magnitude remains the same at all GWLs, suggesting that SPI projection may underestimate impacts of the GWLs on the intensity and severity of future drought. The results of this study have application in mitigating impact of global warming on future drought risk over the regional water systems.
KW  - climate change
KW  - drought index
KW  - global warming levels
KW  - river basins
KW  - West Africa
KW  - CORDEX data
Y1  - 2019
VL  - 40
IS  - 13
PB  - John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
CY  - New Jersey
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Marcisz, Katarzyna
A1  - Jassey, Vincent E. J.
A1  - Kosakyan, Anush
A1  - Krashevska, Valentyna
A1  - Lahr, Daniel J. G.
A1  - Lara, Enrique
A1  - Lamentowicz, Lukasz
A1  - Lamentowicz, Mariusz
A1  - Macumber, Andrew
A1  - Mazei, Yuri
A1  - Mitchell, Edward A. D.
A1  - Nasser, Nawaf A.
A1  - Patterson, R. Timothy
A1  - Roe, Helen M.
A1  - Singer, David
A1  - Tsyganov, Andrey N.
A1  - Fournier, Bertrand
T1  - Testate amoeba functional traits and their use in paleoecology
JF  - Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
N2  - This review provides a synthesis of current knowledge on the morphological and functional traits of testate amoebae, a polyphyletic group of protists commonly used as proxies of past hydrological changes in paleoecological investigations from peatland, lake sediment and soil archives. A trait-based approach to understanding testate amoebae ecology and paleoecology has gained in popularity in recent years, with research showing that morphological characteristics provide complementary information to the commonly used environmental inferences based on testate amoeba (morpho-)species data. We provide a broad overview of testate amoeba morphological and functional traits and trait-environment relationships in the context of ecology, evolution, genetics, biogeography, and paleoecology. As examples we report upon previous ecological and paleoecological studies that used trait-based approaches, and describe key testate amoebae traits that can be used to improve the interpretation of environmental studies. We also highlight knowledge gaps and speculate on potential future directions for the application of trait-based approaches in testate amoeba research.
KW  - protists
KW  - functional traits
KW  - morphological traits
KW  - ecology
KW  - peatlands
KW  - lakes
KW  - soils
KW  - trait-based approaches
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.575966
SN  - 2296-701X
VL  - 8
PB  - Frontiers Media
CY  - Lausanne
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zingraff-Hamed, Aude
A1  - Hüesker, Frank
A1  - Lupp, Gerd
A1  - Begg, Chloe
A1  - Huang, Josh
A1  - Oen, Amy M. P.
A1  - Vojinović, Zoran
A1  - Kuhlicke, Christian
A1  - Pauleit, Stephan
T1  - Stakeholder mapping to co-create nature-based solutions
BT  - who is on board?
JF  - Sustainability
N2  - Nature-based solutions (NBS) are inspired and supported by nature but designed by humans. Historically, governmental stakeholders have aimed to control nature using a top-down approach; more recently, environmental governance has shifted to collaborative planning. Polycentric governance and co-creation procedures, which include a large spectrum of stakeholders, are assumed to be more effective in the management of public goods than traditional approaches. In this context, NBS projects should benefit from strong collaborative governance models, and the European Union is facilitating and encouraging such models. While some theoretical approaches exist, setting-up the NBS co-creation process (namely co-design and co-implementation) currently relies mostly on self-organized stakeholders rather than on strategic decisions. As such, systematic methods to identify relevant stakeholders seem to be crucial to enable higher planning efficiency, reduce bottlenecks and time needed for planning, designing, and implementing NBS. In this context, this contribution is based on the analysis of 16 NBS and 359 stakeholders. Real-life constellations are compared to theoretical typologies, and a systematic stakeholder mapping method to support co-creation is presented. Rather than making one-fit-all statements about the "right" stakeholders, the contribution provides insights for those "in charge" to strategically consider who might be involved at each stage of the NBS project.
KW  - ecosystem-based
KW  - natural hazard mitigation
KW  - participative planning
KW  - co-design
KW  - polycentric governance
KW  - living labs
KW  - societal resilience
KW  - sustainable development goals
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/su12208625
SN  - 2071-1050
VL  - 12
IS  - 20
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - de Brito, Mariana Madruga
A1  - Kuhlicke, Christian
A1  - Marx, Andreas
T1  - Near-real-time drought impact assessment
BT  - a text mining approach on the 2018/19 drought in Germany
JF  - Environmental research letters
N2  - Contemporary drought impact assessments have been constrained due to data availability, leading to an incomplete representation of impact trends. To address this, we present a novel method for the comprehensive and near-real-time monitoring of drought socio-economic impacts based on media reports. We tested its application using the case of the exceptional 2018/19 German drought. By employing text mining techniques, 4839 impact statements were identified, relating to livestock, agriculture, forestry, fires, recreation, energy and transport sectors. An accuracy of 95.6% was obtained for their automatic classification. Furthermore, high levels of performance in terms of spatial and temporal precision were found when validating our results against independent data (e.g. soil moisture, average precipitation, population interest in droughts, crop yield and forest fire statistics). The findings highlight the applicability of media data for rapidly and accurately monitoring the propagation of drought consequences over time and space. We anticipate our method to be used as a starting point for an impact-based early warning system.
KW  - drought impacts
KW  - Germany
KW  - text analytics
KW  - newspaper
KW  - validation
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba4ca
SN  - 1748-9326
VL  - 15
IS  - 10
PB  - IOP Publ.
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hudson, Paul
A1  - Hagedoorn, Liselotte
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
T1  - Potential linkages between social capital, flood risk perceptions, and self-efficacy
JF  - International journal of disaster risk science
N2  - A growing focus is being placed on both individuals and communities to adapt to flooding as part of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. Adaptation to flooding requires sufficient social capital (linkages between members of society), risk perceptions (understanding of risk), and self-efficacy (self-perceived ability to limit disaster impacts) to be effective. However, there is limited understanding of how social capital, risk perceptions, and self-efficacy interact. We seek to explore how social capital interacts with variables known to increase the likelihood of successful adaptation. To study these linkages we analyze survey data of 1010 respondents across two communities in Thua Tien-Hue Province in central Vietnam, using ordered probit models. We find positive correlations between social capital, risk perceptions, and self-efficacy overall. This is a partly contrary finding to what was found in previous studies linking these concepts in Europe, which may be a result from the difference in risk context. The absence of an overall negative exchange between these factors has positive implications for proactive flood risk adaptation.
KW  - flood risk
KW  - protection motivation theory
KW  - risk perceptions
KW  - social
KW  - capital
KW  - self-efficacy
KW  - Vietnam
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-020-00259-w
SN  - 2095-0055
SN  - 2192-6395
VL  - 11
IS  - 3
SP  - 251
EP  - 262
PB  - Springer
CY  - Berlin
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Webber, Heidi
A1  - Lischeid, Gunnar
A1  - Sommer, Michael
A1  - Finger, Robert
A1  - Nendel, Claas
A1  - Gaiser, Thomas
A1  - Ewert, Frank
T1  - No perfect storm for crop yield failure in Germany
JF  - Environmental research letters
N2  - Large-scale crop yield failures are increasingly associated with food price spikes and food insecurity and are a large source of income risk for farmers. While the evidence linking extreme weather to yield failures is clear, consensus on the broader set of weather drivers and conditions responsible for recent yield failures is lacking. We investigate this for the case of four major crops in Germany over the past 20 years using a combination of machine learning and process-based modelling. Our results confirm that years associated with widespread yield failures across crops were generally associated with severe drought, such as in 2018 and to a lesser extent 2003. However, for years with more localized yield failures and large differences in spatial patterns of yield failures between crops, no single driver or combination of drivers was identified. Relatively large residuals of unexplained variation likely indicate the importance of non-weather related factors, such as management (pest, weed and nutrient management and possible interactions with weather) explaining yield failures. Models to inform adaptation planning at farm, market or policy levels are here suggested to require consideration of cumulative resource capture and use, as well as effects of extreme events, the latter largely missing in process-based models. However, increasingly novel combinations of weather events under climate change may limit the extent to which data driven methods can replace process-based models in risk assessments.
KW  - crop yield failure
KW  - extreme events
KW  - support vector machine
KW  - process-based crop model
KW  - Germany
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba2a4
SN  - 1748-9326
VL  - 15
IS  - 10
PB  - IOP Publ. Ltd.
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Tesselaar, Max
A1  - Botzen, W. J. Wouter
A1  - Haer, Toon
A1  - Hudson, Paul
A1  - Tiggeloven, Timothy
A1  - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
T1  - Regional inequalities in flood insurance affordability and uptake under climate change
JF  - Sustainability
N2  - Flood insurance coverage can enhance financial resilience of households to changing flood risk caused by climate change. However, income inequalities imply that not all households can afford flood insurance. The uptake of flood insurance in voluntary markets may decline when flood risk increases as a result of climate change. This increase in flood risk may cause substantially higher risk-based insurance premiums, reduce the willingness to purchase flood insurance, and worsen problems with the unaffordability of coverage for low-income households. A socio-economic tipping-point can occur when the functioning of a formal flood insurance system is hampered by diminishing demand for coverage. In this study, we examine whether such a tipping-point can occur in Europe for current flood insurance systems under different trends in future flood risk caused by climate and socio-economic change. This analysis gives insights into regional inequalities concerning the ability to continue to use flood insurance as an instrument to adapt to changing flood risk. For this study, we adapt the "Dynamic Integrated Flood and Insurance" (DIFI) model by integrating new flood risk simulations in the model that enable examining impacts from various scenarios of climate and socio-economic change on flood insurance premiums and consumer demand. Our results show rising unaffordability and declining demand for flood insurance across scenarios towards 2080. Under a high climate change scenario, simulations show the occurrence of a socio-economic tipping-point in several regions, where insurance uptake almost disappears. A tipping-point and related inequalities in the ability to use flood insurance as an adaptation instrument can be mitigated by introducing reforms of flood insurance arrangements.
KW  - climate change
KW  - flood risk management
KW  - insurance
KW  - socio-economic
KW  - tipping-point
KW  - adaptation
KW  - partial equilibrium modeling
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/su12208734
SN  - 2071-1050
VL  - 12
IS  - 20
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Pan, Xiaohui
A1  - Wang, Weishi
A1  - Liu, Tie
A1  - Huang, Yue
A1  - De Maeyer, Philippe
A1  - Guo, Chenyu
A1  - Ling, Yunan
A1  - Akmalov, Shamshodbek
T1  - Quantitative detection and attribution of groundwater level variations in the Amu Darya Delta
JF  - Water
N2  - In the past few decades, the shrinkage of the Aral Sea is one of the biggest ecological catastrophes caused by human activity. To quantify the joint impact of both human activities and climate change on groundwater, the spatiotemporal groundwater dynamic characteristics in the Amu Darya Delta of the Aral Sea from 1999 to 2017 were analyzed, using the groundwater level, climate conditions, remote sensing data, and irrigation information. Statistics analysis was adopted to analyze the trend of groundwater variation, including intensity, periodicity, spatial structure, while the Pearson correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on the variabilities of the groundwater level. Results reveal that the local groundwater dynamic has varied considerably. From 1999 to 2002, the groundwater level dropped from -189 cm to -350 cm. Until 2017, the groundwater level rose back to -211 cm with fluctuation. Seasonally, the fluctuation period of groundwater level and irrigation water was similar, both were about 18 months. Spatially, the groundwater level kept stable within the irrigation area and bare land but fluctuated drastically around the irrigation area. The Pearson correlation analysis reveals that the dynamic of the groundwater level is closely related to irrigation activity within the irrigation area (Nukus: -0.583), while for the place adjacent to the Aral Sea, the groundwater level is closely related to the Large Aral Sea water level (Muynak: 0.355). The results of PCA showed that the cumulative contribution rate of the first three components exceeds 85%. The study reveals that human activities have a great impact on groundwater, effective management, and the development of water resources in arid areas is an essential prerequisite for ecological protection.
KW  - groundwater level variation
KW  - climate change
KW  - human activities
KW  - statistical analysis
KW  - Amu Darya Delta
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102869
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 12
IS  - 10
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Natho, Stephanie
A1  - Tschikof, Martin
A1  - Bondar-Kunze, Elisabeth
A1  - Hein, Thomas
T1  - Modeling the effect of enhanced lateral connectivity on nutrient retention capacity in large river floodplains
BT  - how much connected floodplain do we need?
JF  - Frontiers in Environmental Science
N2  - Floodplains have been degraded in Central Europe for centuries, resulting in less dynamic and less diverse ecosystems than in the past. They provide essential ecosystem services like nutrient retention to improve overall water quality and thus fulfill naturally what EU legislation demands, but this service is impaired by reduced connectivity patterns. Along the second-longest river in Europe, the Danube, restoration measures have been carried out and are planned for the near future in the Austrian Danube Floodplain National Park in accordance with navigation purposes. We investigated nutrient retention capacity in seven currently differently connected side arms and the effects of proposed restoration measures using two complementary modeling approaches. We modeled nutrient retention capacity in two scenarios considering different hydrological conditions, as well as the consequences of planned restoration measures for side arm connectivity. With existing monitoring data on hydrology, nitrate, and total phosphorus concentrations for three side arms, we applied a statistical model and compared these results to a semi-empirical retention model. The latter was originally developed for larger scales, based on transferable causalities of retention processes and set up for this floodplain with publicly available data. Both model outcomes are in a comparable range for NO3-N (77-198 kg ha(-1)yr(-1)) and TP (1.4-5.7 kg ha(-1)yr(-1)) retention and agree in calculating higher retention in floodplains, where reconnection allows more frequent inundation events. However, the differences in the model results are significant for specific aspects especially during high flows, where the semi-empirical model complements the statistical model. On the other hand, the statistical model complements the semi-empirical model when taking into account nutrient retention at times of no connection between the remaining water bodies left in the floodplain. Overall, both models show clearly that nutrient retention in the Danube floodplains can be enhanced by restoring lateral hydrological reconnection and, for all planned measures, a positive effect on the overall water quality of the Danube River is expected. Still, a frequently hydrologically connected stretch of national park is insufficient to improve the water quality of the whole Upper Danube, and more functional floodplains are required.
KW  - floodplain
KW  - lateral hydrological connectivity
KW  - Danube
KW  - restoration
KW  - reconnection
KW  - inundation
KW  - nutrient retention
KW  - modeling
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.00074
SN  - 2296-665X
VL  - 8
PB  - Frontiers Media
CY  - Lausanne
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lehr, Christian
A1  - Lischeid, Gunnar
T1  - Efficient screening of groundwater head monitoring data for anthropogenic effects and measurement errors
JF  - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
N2  - Groundwater levels are monitored by environmental agencies to support the sustainable use of groundwater resources. For this purpose continuous and spatially comprehensive monitoring in high spatial and temporal resolution is desired. This leads to large datasets that have to be checked for quality and analysed to distinguish local anthropogenic influences from natural variability of the groundwater level dynamics at each well. Both technical problems with the measurements as well as local anthropogenic influences can lead to local anomalies in the hydrographs. We suggest a fast and efficient screening method for the identification of well-specific peculiarities in hydrographs of groundwater head monitoring networks. The only information required is a set of time series of groundwater heads all measured at the same instants of time. For each well of the monitoring network a reference hydrograph is calculated, describing expected "normal" behaviour at the respective well as is typical for the monitored region. The reference hydrograph is calculated by multiple linear regression of the observed hydrograph with the "stable" principal components (PCs) of a principal component analysis of all groundwater head series of the network as predictor variables. The stable PCs are those PCs which were found in a random subsampling procedure to be rather insensitive to the specific selection of the analysed observation wells, i.e. complete series, and to the specific selection of measurement dates. Hence they can be considered to be representative for the monitored region in the respective period. The residuals of the reference hydrograph describe local deviations from the normal behaviour. Peculiarities in the residuals allow the data to be checked for measurement errors and the wells with a possible anthropogenic influence to be identified. The approach was tested with 141 groundwater head time series from the state authority groundwater monitoring network in northeastern Germany covering the period from 1993 to 2013 at an approximately weekly frequency of measurement.
KW  - streamflow variability
KW  - principal components
KW  - united states
KW  - time-seriesa
KW  - water
KW  - network
KW  - nonstationarity
KW  - fluctuations
KW  - rotation
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-501-2020
SN  - 1027-5606
SN  - 1607-7938
VL  - 24
IS  - 2
SP  - 501
EP  - 513
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zimmermann, Heike Hildegard
A1  - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie
A1  - Kruse, Stefan
A1  - Müller, Juliane
A1  - Stein, Ruediger
A1  - Tiedemann, Ralf
A1  - Herzschuh, Ulrike
T1  - Changes in the composition of marine and sea-ice diatoms derived from sedimentary ancient DNA of the eastern Fram Strait over the past 30 000 years
JF  - Ocean Science
N2  - The Fram Strait is an area with a relatively low and irregular distribution of diatom microfossils in surface sediments, and thus microfossil records are scarce, rarely exceed the Holocene, and contain sparse information about past richness and taxonomic composition. These attributes make the Fram Strait an ideal study site to test the utility of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding. Amplifying a short, partial rbcL marker from samples of sediment core MSM05/5-712-2 resulted in 95.7 % of our sequences being assigned to diatoms across 18 different families, with 38.6 % of them being resolved to species and 25.8 % to genus level. Independent replicates show a high similarity of PCR products, especially in the oldest samples. Diatom sedaDNA richness is highest in the Late Weichselian and lowest in Mid- and Late Holocene samples. Taxonomic composition is dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms and suggests several reorganisations – after the Last Glacial Maximum, after the Younger Dryas, and after the Early and after the Mid-Holocene. Different sequences assigned to, amongst others, Chaetoceros socialis indicate the detectability of intra-specific diversity using sedaDNA. We detect no clear pattern between our diatom sedaDNA record and the previously published IP25 record of this core, although proportions of pennate diatoms increase with higher IP25 concentrations and proportions of Nitzschia cf. frigida exceeding 2 % of the assemblage point towards past sea-ice presence.
KW  - last glacial maximum
KW  - surface temperatures
KW  - species composition
KW  - greenland shelf
KW  - Disko Bay
KW  - phytoplankton
KW  - communities
KW  - variability
KW  - diversity
KW  - Svalbard
Y1  - 2019
VL  - 16
IS  - 5
PB  - Springer
CY  - Tokyo
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zhang, Yan-qiu
A1  - Guo, Zeng-hui
A1  - Chen, Dai-zhao
T1  - Porosity distribution in cyclic dolomites of the Lower Qiulitag Group (Upper Cambrian) in northwestern Tarim Basin, China
JF  - China geology
N2  - Increasing interests in hydrocarbon resources at depths have drawn greater attentions to the deeply-buried carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin in China. In this study, the cyclic dolomite rocks of Upper Cambrian Lower Qiulitag Group from four outcrop sections in northwestern Tarim Basin were selected to investigate and evaluate the petrophysical properties in relation to depositional facies and cyclicity. The Lower Qiulitag Group includes ten lithofacies, which were deposited in intermediate to shallow subtidal, restricted shallow subtidal, intertidal, and supratidal environments on a carbonate ramp system. These lithofacies are vertically stacked into repeated shallowing-upward, meter-scale cycles which are further grouped into six third-order depositional sequences (Sq1 to Sq6). There are variable types of pore spaces in the Lower Qiulitag Group dolomite rocks, including interparticle, intraparticle, and fenestral pores of primary origin, inter crystal, and vuggy pores of late diagenetic modification. The porosity in the dolomites is generally facies-selective as that the microbially-originated thrombolites and stromatolites generally yield a relatively high porosity. In contrast, the high-energy ooidal grainstones generally have very low porosity. In this case, the microbialite-based peritidal cycles and peritidal cycle-dominated highstand (or regressive) successions have relatively high volumes of pore spaces, although highly fluctuating (or vertical inhomogeneous). Accordingly, the grainstone-based subtidal cycles and subtidal cycle-dominated transgressive successions generally yield extremely low porosity. This scenario indicates that porosity development and preservation in the thick dolomite successions are primarily controlled by depositional facies which were influenced by sea-level fluctuations of different orders and later diagenetic overprinting.
KW  - Dolomites
KW  - porosity
KW  - cyclicity
KW  - Upper Cambrian
KW  - stromatolite
KW  - microbial
KW  - build up
KW  - oil-gas basin
KW  - oil-gas exploration engineering
KW  - Tarim Basin
KW  - China
Y1  - 2020
UR  - http://en.cgsjournals.com/zgdzdcqkw-data/zgdzyw/2020/3/PDF/cg2020026.pdf
SN  - 2096-5192
SN  - 2589-9430
VL  - 3
IS  - 3
SP  - 425
EP  - 444
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Dobkowitz, Sophia
A1  - Walz, Ariane
A1  - Baroni, Gabriele
A1  - Pérez-Marin, Aldrin M.
T1  - Cross-Scale Vulnerability Assessment for Smallholder Farming
BT  - A Case Study from the Northeast of Brazil
JF  - Sustainability
N2  - Climate change heavily impacts smallholder farming worldwide. Cross-scale vulnerability assessment has a high potential to identify nested measures for reducing vulnerability of smallholder farmers. Despite their high practical value, there are currently only limited examples of cross-scale assessments. The presented study aims at assessing the vulnerability of smallholder farmers in the Northeast of Brazil across three scales: regional, farm and field scale. In doing so, it builds on existing vulnerability indices and compares results between indices at the same scale and across scales. In total, six independent indices are tested, two at each scale. The calculated indices include social, economic and ecological indicators, based on municipal statistics, meteorological data, farm interviews and soil analyses. Subsequently, indices and overlapping indicators are normalized for intra- and cross-scale comparison. The results show considerable differences between indices across and within scales. They indicate different activities to reduce vulnerability of smallholder farmers. Major shortcomings arise from the conceptual differences between the indices. We therefore recommend the development of hierarchical indices, which are adapted to local conditions and contain more overlapping indicators for a better understanding of the nested vulnerabilities of smallholder farmers.
KW  - family farming
KW  - nested vulnerabilities
KW  - vulnerability indices
KW  - semi-arid regions
KW  - Paraíba
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093787
SN  - 2071-1050
VL  - 12
IS  - 9
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Scherler, Dirk
A1  - Schwanghart, Wolfgang
T1  - Drainage divide networks - part 1: Identification and ordering in digital elevation models
JF  - Earth surface dynamics : ESURF
N2  - We propose a novel way to measure and analyze networks of drainage divides from digital elevation models. We developed an algorithm that extracts drainage divides based on the drainage basin boundaries defined by a stream network. In contrast to streams, there is no straightforward approach to order and classify divides, although it is intuitive that some divides are more important than others. A meaningful way of ordering divides is the average distance one would have to travel down on either side of a divide to reach a common stream location. However, because measuring these distances is computationally expensive and prone to edge effects, we instead sort divide segments based on their tree-like network structure, starting from endpoints at river confluences. The sorted nature of the network allows for assigning distances to points along the divides, which can be shown to scale with the average distance downslope to the common stream location. Furthermore, because divide segments tend to have characteristic lengths, an ordering scheme in which divide orders increase by 1 at junctions mimics these distances. We applied our new algorithm to the Big Tujunga catchment in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California and studied the morphology of the drainage divide network. Our results show that topographic metrics, like the downstream flow distance to a stream and hillslope relief, attain characteristic values that depend on the drainage area threshold used to derive the stream network. Portions along the divide network that have lower than average relief or are closer than average to streams are often distinctly asymmetric in shape, suggesting that these divides are unstable. Our new and automated approach thus helps to objectively extract and analyze divide networks from digital elevation models.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-245-2020
SN  - 2196-6311
SN  - 2196-632X
VL  - 8
IS  - 2
SP  - 245
EP  - 259
PB  - Copernicus Publ.
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Herrero, Mario
A1  - Thornton, Philip K.
A1  - Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
A1  - Palmer, Jeda
A1  - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
A1  - Pradhan, Prajal
A1  - Barrett, Christopher B.
A1  - Benton, Tim G.
A1  - Hall, Andrew
A1  - Pikaar, Ilje
A1  - Bogard, Jessica R.
A1  - Bonnett, Graham D.
A1  - Bryan, Brett A.
A1  - Campbell, Bruce M.
A1  - Christensen, Svend
A1  - Clark, Michael
A1  - Fanzo, Jessica
A1  - Godde, Cecile M.
A1  - Jarvis, Andy
A1  - Loboguerrero, Ana Maria
A1  - Mathys, Alexander
A1  - McIntyre, C. Lynne
A1  - Naylor, Rosamond L.
A1  - Nelson, Rebecca
A1  - Obersteiner, Michael
A1  - Parodi, Alejandro
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Ricketts, Katie
A1  - Smith, Pete
A1  - Valin, Hugo
A1  - Vermeulen, Sonja J.
A1  - Vervoort, Joost
A1  - van Wijk, Mark
A1  - van Zanten, Hannah H. E.
A1  - West, Paul C.
A1  - Wood, Stephen A.
A1  - Rockström, Johan
T1  - Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals
JF  - The lancet Planetary health
N2  - Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30277-1
SN  - 2542-5196
VL  - 5
IS  - 1
SP  - E50
EP  - E62
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Koç, Gamze
A1  - Petrow, Theresia
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Analysis of the Most Severe Flood Events in Turkey (1960–2014)
BT  - Which Triggering Mechanisms and Aggravating Pathways Can be Identified?
JF  - Water
N2  - The most severe flood events in Turkey were determined for the period 1960–2014 by considering the number of fatalities, the number of affected people, and the total economic losses as indicators. The potential triggering mechanisms (i.e., atmospheric circulations and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e., topographic features, catchment size, land use types, and soil properties) of these 25 events were analyzed. On this basis, a new approach was developed to identify the main influencing factor per event and to provide additional information for determining the dominant flood occurrence pathways for severe floods. The events were then classified through hierarchical cluster analysis. As a result, six different clusters were found and characterized. Cluster 1 comprised flood events that were mainly influenced by drainage characteristics (e.g., catchment size and shape); Cluster 2 comprised events aggravated predominantly by urbanization; steep topography was identified to be the dominant factor for Cluster 3; extreme rainfall was determined as the main triggering factor for Cluster 4; saturated soil conditions were found to be the dominant factor for Cluster 5; and orographic effects of mountain ranges characterized Cluster 6. This study determined pathway patterns of the severe floods in Turkey with regard to their main causal or aggravating mechanisms. Accordingly, geomorphological properties are of major importance in large catchments in eastern and northeastern Anatolia. In addition, in small catchments, the share of urbanized area seems to be an important factor for the extent of flood impacts. This paper presents an outcome that could be used for future urban planning and flood risk prevention studies to understand the flood mechanisms in different regions of Turkey.
KW  - hierarchical clustering
KW  - Hess-Brezowsky Großwetterlagen classification
KW  - ERA5
KW  - flood hazards
KW  - pathway
KW  - Turkey
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061562
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 12
IS  - 6
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Laudan, Jonas
A1  - Zöller, Gert
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Flash floods versus river floods
BT  - a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour
JF  - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
N2  - River floods are among the most damaging natural hazards that frequently occur in Germany. Flooding causes high economic losses and impacts many residents. In 2016, several southern German municipalities were hit by flash floods after unexpectedly severe heavy rainfall, while in 2013 widespread river flooding had occurred. This study investigates and compares the psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods and potential consequences for precautionary behaviour. Data were collected using computer-aided telephone interviews that were conducted among flood-affected households around 9 months after each damaging event. This study applies Bayesian statistics and negative binomial regressions to test the suitability of psychological indicators to predict the precaution motivation of individuals. The results show that it is not the particular flood type but rather the severity and local impacts of the event that are crucial for the different, and potentially negative, impacts on mental health. According to the used data, however, predictions of the individual precaution motivation should not be based on the derived psychological indicators – i.e. coping appraisal, threat appraisal, burden and evasion – since their explanatory power was generally low and results are, for the most part, non-significant. Only burden reveals a significant positive relation to planned precaution regarding weak flash floods. In contrast to weak flash floods and river floods, the perceived threat of strong flash floods is significantly lower although feelings of burden and lower coping appraisals are more pronounced. Further research is needed to better include psychological assessment procedures and to focus on alternative data sources regarding floods and the connected precaution motivation of affected residents.
KW  - private households
KW  - risk perceptions
KW  - extreme rainfall
KW  - health
KW  - mitigation
KW  - Germany
KW  - people
KW  - damage
KW  - preparedness
KW  - residents
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020
SN  - 1684-9981
VL  - 20
SP  - 999
EP  - 1023
PB  - European Geophysical Society
CY  - Katlenburg-Lindau
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hudson, Paul
A1  - Pham, My
A1  - Hagedoorn, Liselotte
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
A1  - Lasage, Ralph
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
T1  - Self-stated recovery from flooding
BT  - empirical results from a survey in Central Vietnam
JF  - Journal of Flood Risk Management
N2  - Social inequalities lead to flood resilience inequalities across social groups, a topic that requires improved documentation and understanding. The objective of this paper is to attend to these differences by investigating self-stated flood recovery across genders in Vietnam as a conceptual replication of earlier results from Germany. This study employs a regression-based analysis of 1,010 respondents divided between a rural coastal and an urban community in Thua Thien-Hue province. The results highlight an important set of recovery process-related variables. The set of relevant variables is similar across genders in terms of inclusion and influence, and includes age, social capital, internal and external support after a flood, perceived severity of previous flood impacts, and the perception of stress-resilience. However, women were affected more heavily by flooding in terms of longer recovery times, which should be accounted for in risk management. Overall, the studied variables perform similarly in Vietnam and Germany. This study, therefore, conceptually replicates previous results suggesting that women display slightly slower recovery levels as well as that psychological variables influence recovery rates more than adverse flood impacts. This provides an indication of the results' potentially robust nature due to the different socio-environmental contexts in Germany and Vietnam.
KW  - flood recovery
KW  - resilience
KW  - societal equity
KW  - vulnerability
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12680
SN  - 1753-318X
VL  - 14
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Jehmlich, Caroline
A1  - Hudson, Paul
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Short contribution on adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies
BT  - a pilot study of Dresden-Laubegast, Germany
JF  - Journal of Flood Risk Management
N2  - Integrated flood management strategies consider property-level precautionary measures as a vital part. Whereas this is a well-researched topic for residents, little is known about the adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies although they often settle on the ground floor of buildings and are thus among the first affected by flooding. This pilot study analyses flood responses of 64 businesses in a district of the city of Dresden, Germany that experienced major flooding in 2002 and 2013. Using standardised survey data and accompanying qualitative interviews, the analyses revealed that the largest driver of adaptive behaviour is experiencing flood events. Intangible factors such as tradition and a sense of community play a role for the decision to stay in the area, while lacking ownership might hamper property-level adaptation. Further research is also needed to understand the role of insurance and governmental aid for recovery and adaptation of businesses.
KW  - adaptation
KW  - disaster risk reduction
KW  - integrated flood risk management
KW  - risk perception
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12653
SN  - 1753-318X
VL  - 13
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Koc, Gamze
A1  - Petrow, Theresia
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Analysis of the most severe flood events in Turkey (1960-2014)
BT  - which triggering mechanisms and aggravating pathways can be identified?
JF  - Water / Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI)
N2  - The most severe flood events in Turkey were determined for the period 1960-2014 by considering the number of fatalities, the number of affected people, and the total economic losses as indicators. The potential triggering mechanisms (i.e., atmospheric circulations and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e., topographic features, catchment size, land use types, and soil properties) of these 25 events were analyzed. On this basis, a new approach was developed to identify the main influencing factor per event and to provide additional information for determining the dominant flood occurrence pathways for severe floods. The events were then classified through hierarchical cluster analysis. As a result, six different clusters were found and characterized. Cluster 1 comprised flood events that were mainly influenced by drainage characteristics (e.g., catchment size and shape); Cluster 2 comprised events aggravated predominantly by urbanization; steep topography was identified to be the dominant factor for Cluster 3; extreme rainfall was determined as the main triggering factor for Cluster 4; saturated soil conditions were found to be the dominant factor for Cluster 5; and orographic effects of mountain ranges characterized Cluster 6. This study determined pathway patterns of the severe floods in Turkey with regard to their main causal or aggravating mechanisms. Accordingly, geomorphological properties are of major importance in large catchments in eastern and northeastern Anatolia. In addition, in small catchments, the share of urbanized area seems to be an important factor for the extent of flood impacts. This paper presents an outcome that could be used for future urban planning and flood risk prevention studies to understand the flood mechanisms in different regions of Turkey.
KW  - hierarchical clustering
KW  - Hess-Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen classification
KW  - ERA5
KW  - flood hazards
KW  - pathway
KW  - Turkey
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061562
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 12
IS  - 6
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kellermann, Patric
A1  - Schröter, Kai
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
A1  - Haubrock, Sören-Nils
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
T1  - The object-specific flood damage database HOWAS 21
JF  - Natural hazards and earth system sciences
N2  - The Flood Damage Database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. The main purpose of development of HOWAS 21 was to support forensic flood analysis and the derivation of flood damage models. HOWAS 21 was first developed for Germany and currently almost exclusively contains datasets from Germany. However, its scope has recently been enlarged with the aim to serve as an international flood damage database; e.g. its web application is now available in German and English. This paper presents the recent advancements of HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data. The data applications indicate a large potential of the database for fostering a better understanding and estimation of the consequences of flooding.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020
SN  - 1561-8633
SN  - 1684-9981
VL  - 20
IS  - 9
SP  - 2503
EP  - 2519
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Pradhan, Prajal
A1  - Kropp, Jürgen
T1  - Interplay between diets, health, and climate change
JF  - Sustainability
N2  - The world is facing a triple burden of undernourishment, obesity, and environmental impacts from agriculture while nourishing its population. This burden makes sustainable nourishment of the growing population a global challenge. Addressing this challenge requires an understanding of the interplay between diets, health, and associated environmental impacts (e.g., climate change). For this, we identify 11 typical diets that represent dietary habits worldwide for the last five decades. Plant-source foods provide most of all three macronutrients (carbohydrates, protein, and fat) in developing countries. In contrast, animal-source foods provide a majority of protein and fat in developed ones. The identified diets deviate from the recommended healthy diet with either too much (e.g., red meat) or too little (e.g., fruits and vegetables) food and nutrition supply. The total calorie supplies are lower than required for two diets. Sugar consumption is higher than recommended for five diets. Three and five diets consist of larger-than-recommended carbohydrate and fat shares, respectively. Four diets with a large share of animal-source foods exceed the recommended value of red meat. Only two diets consist of at least 400 gm/cap/day of fruits and vegetables while accounting for food waste. Prevalence of undernourishment and underweight dominates in the diets with lower calories. In comparison, a higher prevalence of obesity is observed for diets with higher calories with high shares of sugar, fat, and animal-source foods. However, embodied emissions in the diets do not show a clear relation with calorie supplies and compositions. Two high-calorie diets embody more than 1.5 t CO<mml:semantics>2</mml:semantics>eq/cap/yr, and two low-calorie diets embody around 1 t CO<mml:semantics>2</mml:semantics>eq/cap/yr. Our analysis highlights that sustainable and healthy diets can serve the purposes of both nourishing the population and, at the same time, reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.
KW  - dietary patterns
KW  - healthy diets
KW  - embodied emissions
KW  - diet shifts
KW  - sustainable diets
KW  - emission intensity
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093878
SN  - 2071-1050
VL  - 12
IS  - 9
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Vyse, Stuart Andrew
A1  - Semiromi, Majid Taie
A1  - Lischeid, Gunnar
A1  - Merz, Christoph
T1  - Characterizing hydrological processes within kettle holes using stable water isotopes in the Uckermark of northern Brandenburg, Germany
JF  - Hydrological Processes
N2  - Understanding the hydrologic connectivity between kettle holes and shallow groundwater, particularly in reaction to the highly variable local meteorological conditions, is of paramount importance for tracing water in a hydro(geo)logically complex landscape and thus for integrated water resource management. This article is aimed at identifying the dominant hydrological processes affecting the kettle holes' water balance and their interactions with the shallow groundwater domain in the Uckermark region, located in the north-east of Germany. For this reason, based on the stable isotopes of oxygen (delta O-18) and hydrogen (delta H-2), an isotopic mass balance model was employed to compute the evaporative loss of water from the kettle holes from February to August 2017. Results demonstrated that shallow groundwater inflow may play the pivotal role in the processes taking part in the hydrology of the kettle holes in the Uckermark region. Based on the calculated evaporation/inflow (E/I) ratios, most of the kettle holes (86.7%) were ascertained to have a partially open, flow-through-dominated system. Moreover, we identified an inverse correlation between E/I ratios and the altitudes of the kettle holes. The same holds for electrical conductivity (EC) and the altitudes of the kettle holes. In accordance with the findings obtained from this study, a conceptual model explaining the interaction between the shallow groundwater and the kettle holes of Uckermark was developed. The model exhibited that across the highest altitudes, the recharge kettle holes are dominant, where a lower ratio of E/I and a lower EC was detected. By contrast, the lowest topographical depressions represent the discharge kettle holes, where a higher ratio of E/I and EC could be identified. The kettle holes existing in between were categorized as flow-through kettle holes through which the recharge takes place from one side and discharge from the other side.
KW  - evaporation
KW  - groundwater inflow
KW  - kettle hole
KW  - stable water isotope
KW  - surface–groundwater interactions
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13699
SN  - 0885-6087
SN  - 1099-1085
VL  - 34
IS  - 8
SP  - 1868
EP  - 1887
PB  - Wiley
CY  - New York
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Smetanová, Anna
A1  - Müller, Anne
A1  - Zargar, Morteza
A1  - Suleiman, Mohamed A.
A1  - Gholami, Faraz Rabei
A1  - Mousavi, Maryam
T1  - Mesoscale mapping of sediment source hotspots for dam sediment management in data-sparse semi-arid catchments
JF  - Water
N2  - Land degradation and water availability in semi-arid regions are interdependent challenges for management that are influenced by climatic and anthropogenic changes. Erosion and high sediment loads in rivers cause reservoir siltation and decrease storage capacity, which pose risk on water security for citizens, agriculture, and industry. In regions where resources for management are limited, identifying spatial-temporal variability of sediment sources is crucial to decrease siltation. Despite widespread availability of rigorous methods, approaches simplifying spatial and temporal variability of erosion are often inappropriately applied to very data sparse semi-arid regions. In this work, we review existing approaches for mapping erosional hotspots, and provide an example of spatial-temporal mapping approach in two case study regions. The barriers limiting data availability and their effects on erosion mapping methods, their validation, and resulting prioritization of leverage management areas are discussed.
KW  - reservoir siltation
KW  - water security
KW  - water management
KW  - data sharing
KW  - spatial-temporal
KW  - erosion hotspots
KW  - mapping
KW  - global datasets
KW  - mesoscale
KW  - leverage areas
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020396
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 12
IS  - 2
SP  - 1
EP  - 24
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe
A1  - Bronstert, Axel
A1  - Shrestha, Pallav
A1  - Kadewere, Peter
A1  - Vormoor, Klaus Josef
T1  - Susceptibility of water resources and hydropower production to climate change in the tropics
BT  - the case of Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins, SE Africa
JF  - Hydrology : open access journal
N2  - The sensitivity of key hydrologic variables and hydropower generation to climate change in the Lake Malawi and Shire River basins is assessed. The study adapts the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) which is applied separately in the Upper Lake Malawi and Shire River basins. A particular Lake Malawi model, which focuses on reservoir routing and lake water balance, has been developed and is interlinked between the two basins. Climate change projections from 20 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models for Africa based on two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 are used. An annual temperature increase of 1 degrees C decreases mean lake level and outflow by 0.3 m and 17%, respectively, signifying the importance of intensified evaporation for Lake Malawi's water budget. Meanwhile, a +5% (-5%) deviation in annual rainfall changes mean lake level by +0.7 m (-0.6 m). The combined effects of temperature increase and rainfall decrease result in significantly lower flows in the Shire River. The hydrological river regime may change from perennial to seasonal with the combination of annual temperature increase and precipitation decrease beyond 1.5 degrees C (3.5 degrees C) and -20% (-15%). The study further projects a reduction in annual hydropower production between 1% (RCP8.5) and 2.5% (RCP4.5) during 2021-2050 and between 5% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) during 2071-2100. The results show that it is of great importance that a further development of hydro energy on the Shire River should take into account the effects of climate change, e.g., longer low flow periods and/or higher discharge fluctuations, and thus uncertainty in the amount of electricity produced.
KW  - Lake Malawi Basin
KW  - Shire River Basin
KW  - lake water balance
KW  - climate change impacts in the tropics
KW  - hydropower generation
KW  - response surface analysis
KW  - sensitivity analysis
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7030054
SN  - 2306-5338
VL  - 7
IS  - 3
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Rottler, Erwin
A1  - Francke, Till
A1  - Bürger, Gerd
A1  - Bronstert, Axel
T1  - Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869–2016
BT  - impact of changing snow covers, reservoir constructions and an intensified hydrological cycle
JF  - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
N2  - Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions.

Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation.
KW  - empirical mode decomposition
KW  - atmospheric blocking
KW  - heavy precipitation
KW  - streamflow trends
KW  - climate-change
KW  - rhine basin
KW  - time-series
KW  - events
KW  - Switzerland
KW  - variability
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020
SN  - 1027-5606
SN  - 1607-7938
VL  - 24
IS  - 4
SP  - 1721
EP  - 1740
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Jing, Miao
A1  - Kumar, Rohini
A1  - Heße, Falk
A1  - Thober, Stephan
A1  - Rakovec, Oldrich
A1  - Samaniego, Luis
A1  - Attinger, Sabine
T1  - Assessing the response of groundwater quantity and travel time distribution to 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming in a mesoscale central German basin
JF  - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
N2  - Groundwater is the biggest single source of high-quality freshwater worldwide, which is also continuously threatened by the changing climate. In this paper, we investigate the response of the regional groundwater system to climate change under three global warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 ∘C) in a central German basin (Nägelstedt). This investigation is conducted by deploying an integrated modeling workflow that consists of a mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) and a fully distributed groundwater model, OpenGeoSys (OGS). mHM is forced with climate simulations of five general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways. The diffuse recharges estimated by mHM are used as boundary forcings to the OGS groundwater model to compute changes in groundwater levels and travel time distributions. Simulation results indicate that groundwater recharges and levels are expected to increase slightly under future climate scenarios. Meanwhile, the mean travel time is expected to decrease compared to the historical average. However, the ensemble simulations do not all agree on the sign of relative change. Changes in mean travel time exhibit a larger variability than those in groundwater levels. The ensemble simulations do not show a systematic relationship between the projected change (in both groundwater levels and travel times) and the warming level, but they indicate an increased variability in projected changes with adjusting the enhanced warming level from 1.5 to 3 ∘C. Correspondingly, it is highly recommended to restrain the trend of global warming.
KW  - climate change impacts
KW  - hydrological models
KW  - coupled surface
KW  - water fluxes
KW  - catchment
KW  - recharge
KW  - dynamics
KW  - aquifer
KW  - flow
KW  - parameterization
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1511-2020
SN  - 1607-7938
SN  - 1027-5606
VL  - 24
IS  - 3
SP  - 1511
EP  - 1526
PB  - Copernicus Publ.
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Schmidt, Lennart
A1  - Heße, Falk
A1  - Attinger, Sabine
A1  - Kumar, Rohini
T1  - Challenges in applying machine learning models for hydrological inference: a case study for flooding events across Germany
JF  - Water Resources Research
N2  - Machine learning (ML) algorithms are being increasingly used in Earth and Environmental modeling studies owing to the ever-increasing availability of diverse data sets and computational resources as well as advancement in ML algorithms. Despite advances in their predictive accuracy, the usefulness of ML algorithms for inference remains elusive. In this study, we employ two popular ML algorithms, artificial neural networks and random forest, to analyze a large data set of flood events across Germany with the goals to analyze their predictive accuracy and their usability to provide insights to hydrologic system functioning. The results of the ML algorithms are contrasted against a parametric approach based on multiple linear regression. For analysis, we employ a model-agnostic framework named Permuted Feature Importance to derive the influence of models' predictors. This allows us to compare the results of different algorithms for the first time in the context of hydrology. Our main findings are that (1) the ML models achieve higher prediction accuracy than linear regression, (2) the results reflect basic hydrological principles, but (3) further inference is hindered by the heterogeneity of results across algorithms. Thus, we conclude that the problem of equifinality as known from classical hydrological modeling also exists for ML and severely hampers its potential for inference. To account for the observed problems, we propose that when employing ML for inference, this should be made by using multiple algorithms and multiple methods, of which the latter should be embedded in a cross-validation routine.
KW  - machine learning
KW  - inference
KW  - floods
Y1  - 2019
VL  - 56
IS  - 5
PB  - John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
CY  - New Jersey
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bilbao-Lasa, Peru
A1  - Jara Muñoz, Julius
A1  - Pedoja, Kevin
A1  - Álvarez, Irantzu
A1  - Aranburu, Arantza
A1  - Iriarte, Eneko
A1  - Galparsoro, Ibon
T1  - Submerged marine terraces identification and an approach for numerical modeling the sequence formation in the Bay of Biscay (Northeastern Iberian Peninsula)
JF  - Frontiers in Earth Science
N2  - Submerged sequences of marine terraces potentially provide crucial information of past sea-level positions. However, the distribution and characteristics of drowned marine terrace sequences are poorly known at a global scale. Using bathymetric data and novel mapping and modeling techniques, we studied a submerged sequence of marine terraces in the Bay of Biscay with the objective to identify the distribution and morphologies of submerged marine terraces and the timing and conditions that allowed their formation and preservation. To accomplish the objectives a high-resolution bathymetry (5 m) was analyzed using Geographic Information Systems and TerraceM(R). The successive submerged terraces were identified using a Surface Classification Model, which linearly combines the slope and the roughness of the surface to extract fossil sea-cliffs and fossil rocky shore platforms. For that purpose, contour and hillshaded maps were also analyzed. Then, shoreline angles, a geomorphic marker located at the intersection between the fossil sea-cliff and platform, were mapped analyzing swath profiles perpendicular to the isobaths. Most of the submerged strandlines are irregularly preserved throughout the continental shelf. In summary, 12 submerged terraces with their shoreline angles between approximately: -13 m (T1), -30 and -32 m (T2), -34 and 41 m (T3), -44 and -47 m (T4), -49 and 53 m (T5), -55 and 58 m (T6), -59 and 62 m (T7), -65 and 67 m (T8), -68 and 70 m (T9), -74 and -77 m (T10), -83 and -86 m (T11) and -89 and 92 m (T12). Nevertheless, the ones showing the best lateral continuity and preservation in the central part of the shelf are T3, T4, T5, T7, T8, and T10. The age of the terraces has been estimated using a landscape evolution model. To simulate the formation and preservation of submerged terraces three different scenarios: (i) 20-0 ka; (ii) 128-0 ka; and (iii) 128-20 ka, were compared. The best scenario for terrace generation was between 128 and 20 Ka, where T3, T5, and T7 could have been formed.
KW  - marine terrace
KW  - submerged sequence
KW  - digital bathymetric model
KW  - TerraceM
KW  - numerical modeling
KW  - Bay of Biscay
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00047
SN  - 2296-6463
VL  - 8
IS  - 47
SP  - 1
EP  - 20
PB  - Frontiers Media
CY  - Lausanne
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Metin, Ayse Duha
A1  - Dung, Nguyen Viet
A1  - Schröter, Kai
A1  - Vorogushyn, Sergiy
A1  - Guse, Björn
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
A1  - Merz, Bruno
T1  - The role of spatial dependence for large-scale flood risk estimation
JF  - Natural hazards and earth system sciences
N2  - Flood risk assessments are typically based on scenarios which assume homogeneous return periods of flood peaks throughout the catchment. This assumption is unrealistic for real flood events and may bias risk estimates for specific return periods. We investigate how three assumptions about the spatial dependence affect risk estimates: (i) spatially homogeneous scenarios (complete dependence), (ii) spatially heterogeneous scenarios (modelled dependence) and (iii) spatially heterogeneous but uncorrelated scenarios (complete independence). To this end, the model chain RFM (regional flood model) is applied to the Elbe catchment in Germany, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of all flood generation processes, from the rainfall through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms. Different assumptions about the spatial dependence do not influence the expected annual damage (EAD); however, they bias the risk curve, i.e. the cumulative distribution function of damage. The widespread assumption of complete dependence strongly overestimates flood damage of the order of 100% for return periods larger than approximately 200 years. On the other hand, for small and medium floods with return periods smaller than approximately 50 years, damage is underestimated. The overestimation aggravates when risk is estimated for larger areas. This study demonstrates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020
SN  - 1561-8633
SN  - 1684-9981
VL  - 20
IS  - 4
SP  - 967
EP  - 979
PB  - European Geosciences Union (EGU) ; Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ramachandran, Srikanthan
A1  - Rupakheti, Maheswar
A1  - Lawrence, Mark
T1  - Aerosol-induced atmospheric heating rate decreases over South and East Asia as a result of changing content and composition
JF  - Scientific reports
N2  - Aerosol emissions from human activities are extensive and changing rapidly over Asia. Model simulations and satellite observations indicate a dipole pattern in aerosol emissions and loading between South Asia and East Asia, two of the most heavily polluted regions of the world. We examine the previously unexplored diverging trends in the existing dipole pattern of aerosols between East and South Asia using the high quality, two-decade long ground-based time series of observations of aerosol properties from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), from satellites (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)), and from model simulations (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). The data cover the period since 2001 for Kanpur (South Asia) and Beijing (East Asia), two locations taken as being broadly representative of the respective regions. Since 2010 a dipole in aerosol optical depth (AOD) is maintained, but the trend is reversed-the decrease in AOD over Beijing (East Asia) is rapid since 2010, being 17% less in current decade compared to first decade of twenty-first century, while the AOD over South Asia increased by 12% during the same period. Furthermore, we find that the aerosol composition is also changing over time. The single scattering albedo (SSA), a measure of aerosol's absorption capacity and related to aerosol composition, is slightly higher over Beijing than Kanpur, and has increased from 0.91 in 2002 to 0.93 in 2017 over Beijing and from 0.89 to 0.92 during the same period over Kanpur, confirming that aerosols in this region have on an average become more scattering in nature. These changes have led to a notable decrease in aerosol-induced atmospheric heating rate (HR) over both regions between the two decades, decreasing considerably more over East Asia (- 31%) than over South Asia (- 9%). The annual mean HR is lower now, it is still large (>= 0.6 K per day), which has significant climate implications. The seasonal trends in AOD, SSA and HR are more pronounced than their respective annual trends over both regions. The seasonal trends are caused mainly by the increase/decrease in anthropogenic aerosol emissions (sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon) while the natural aerosols (dust and sea salt) did not change significantly over South and East Asia during the last two decades. The MERRA-2 model is able to simulate the observed trends in AODs well but not the magnitude, while it also did not simulate the SSA values or trends well. These robust findings based on observations of key aerosol parameters and previously unrecognized diverging trends over South and East Asia need to be accounted for in current state-of-the-art climate models to ensure accurate quantification of the complex and evolving impact of aerosols on the regional climate over Asia.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76936-z
SN  - 2045-2322
VL  - 10
IS  - 1
PB  - Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature
CY  - [London]
ER  -