TY - JOUR A1 - Smith, Taylor A1 - Boers, Niklas T1 - Global vegetation resilience linked to water availability and variability JF - Nature Communications N2 - Quantifying the resilience of vegetated ecosystems is key to constraining both present-day and future global impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Here we apply both empirical and theoretical resilience metrics to remotely-sensed vegetation data in order to examine the role of water availability and variability in controlling vegetation resilience at the global scale. We find a concise global relationship where vegetation resilience is greater in regions with higher water availability. We also reveal that resilience is lower in regions with more pronounced inter-annual precipitation variability, but find less concise relationships between vegetation resilience and intra-annual precipitation variability. Our results thus imply that the resilience of vegetation responds differently to water deficits at varying time scales. In view of projected increases in precipitation variability, our findings highlight the risk of ecosystem degradation under ongoing climate change. Vegetation dynamics depend on both the amount of precipitation and its variability over time. Here, the authors show that vegetation resilience is greater where water availability is higher and where precipitation is more stable from year to year. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36207-7 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 14 IS - 1 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Falkenhagen, Undine A1 - Knöchel, Jane A1 - Kloft, Charlotte A1 - Huisinga, Wilhelm T1 - Deriving mechanism-based pharmacodynamic models by reducing quantitative systems pharmacology models BT - an application to warfarin JF - CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology N2 - Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models integrate comprehensive qualitative and quantitative knowledge about pharmacologically relevant processes. We previously proposed a first approach to leverage the knowledge in QSP models to derive simpler, mechanism-based pharmacodynamic (PD) models. Their complexity, however, is typically still too large to be used in the population analysis of clinical data. Here, we extend the approach beyond state reduction to also include the simplification of reaction rates, elimination of reactions, and analytic solutions. We additionally ensure that the reduced model maintains a prespecified approximation quality not only for a reference individual but also for a diverse virtual population. We illustrate the extended approach for the warfarin effect on blood coagulation. Using the model-reduction approach, we derive a novel small-scale warfarin/international normalized ratio model and demonstrate its suitability for biomarker identification. Due to the systematic nature of the approach in comparison with empirical model building, the proposed model-reduction algorithm provides an improved rationale to build PD models also from QSP models in other applications. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/psp4.12903 SN - 2163-8306 VL - 12 IS - 4 SP - 432 EP - 443 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lewkowicz, Daniel A1 - Böttinger, Erwin A1 - Siegel, Martin T1 - Economic evaluation of digital therapeutic care apps for unsupervised treatment of low back pain BT - Monte Carlo Simulation JF - JMIR mhealth and uhealth N2 - Background: Digital therapeutic care (DTC) programs are unsupervised app-based treatments that provide video exercises and educational material to patients with nonspecific low back pain during episodes of pain and functional disability. German statutory health insurance can reimburse DTC programs since 2019, but evidence on efficacy and reasonable pricing remains scarce. This paper presents a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to evaluate the efficacy and cost-utility of a DTC app against treatment as usual (TAU) in Germany. Objective: The aim of this study was to perform a PSA in the form of a Monte Carlo simulation based on the deterministic base case analysis to account for model assumptions and parameter uncertainty. We also intend to explore to what extent the results in this probabilistic analysis differ from the results in the base case analysis and to what extent a shortage of outcome data concerning quality-of-life (QoL) metrics impacts the overall results. Methods: The PSA builds upon a state-transition Markov chain with a 4-week cycle length over a model time horizon of 3 years from a recently published deterministic cost-utility analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations and a cohort size of 10,000 was employed to evaluate the cost-utility from a societal perspective. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were derived from Veterans RAND 6-Dimension (VR-6D) and Short-Form 6-Dimension (SF-6D) single utility scores. Finally, we also simulated reducing the price for a 3-month app prescription to analyze at which price threshold DTC would result in being the dominant strategy over TAU in Germany. Results: The Monte Carlo simulation yielded on average a euro135.97 (a currency exchange rate of EUR euro1=US $1.069 is applicable) incremental cost and 0.004 incremental QALYs per person and year for the unsupervised DTC app strategy compared to in-person physiotherapy in Germany. The corresponding incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) amounts to an additional euro34,315.19 per additional QALY. DTC yielded more QALYs in 54.96% of the iterations. DTC dominates TAU in 24.04% of the iterations for QALYs. Reducing the app price in the simulation from currently euro239.96 to euro164.61 for a 3-month prescription could yield a negative ICUR and thus make DTC the dominant strategy, even though the estimated probability of DTC being more effective than TAU is only 54.96%. Conclusions: Decision-makers should be cautious when considering the reimbursement of DTC apps since no significant treatment effect was found, and the probability of cost-effectiveness remains below 60% even for an infinite willingness-to-pay threshold. More app-based studies involving the utilization of QoL outcome parameters are urgently needed to account for the low and limited precision of the available QoL input parameters, which are crucial to making profound recommendations concerning the cost-utility of novel apps. KW - cost-utility analysis KW - cost KW - probabilistic sensitivity analysis KW - Monte Carlo simulation KW - low back pain KW - pain KW - economic KW - cost-effectiveness KW - Markov model KW - digital therapy KW - digital health app KW - mHealth KW - mobile health KW - health app KW - mobile app KW - orthopedic KW - QUALY KW - DALY KW - quality-adjusted life years KW - disability-adjusted life years KW - time horizon KW - veteran KW - statistics Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2196/44585 SN - 2291-5222 VL - 11 PB - JMIR Publications CY - Toronto ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kapidzic, Sanja A1 - Frey, Felix A1 - Neuberger, Christoph A1 - Stieglitz, Stefan A1 - Mirbabaie, Milad T1 - Crisis communication on Twitter BT - differences between user types in top tweets about the 2015 “refugee crisis” in Germany JF - International journal of communication N2 - The study explores differences between three user types in the top tweets about the 2015 “refugee crisis” in Germany and presents the results of a quantitative content analysis. All tweets with the keyword “Flüchtlinge” posted for a monthlong period following September 13, 2015, the day Germany decided to implement border controls, were collected (N = 763,752). The top 2,495 tweets according to number of retweets were selected for analysis. Differences between news media, public and private actor tweets in topics, tweet characteristics such as tone and opinion expression, links, and specific sentiments toward refugees were analyzed. We found strong differences between the tweets. Public actor tweets were the main source of positive sentiment toward refugees and the main information source on refugee support. News media tweets mostly reflected traditional journalistic norms of impartiality and objectivity, whereas private actor tweets were more diverse in sentiments toward refugees. KW - refugee crisis 2015 KW - Germany KW - social media KW - Twitter KW - user types Y1 - 2023 UR - https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/18172/4022 SN - 1932-8036 VL - 17 SP - 735 EP - 754 PB - The Annenberg Center for Communication CY - Los Angeles, Calif. ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Agthe, Maria A1 - Kayser, Daniela Niesta A1 - Schwarz, Sascha A1 - Maner, Jon K. T1 - Antecedents of the red-romance effect BT - men's attractiveness and women's fertility JF - PLOS ONE / Public Library of Science N2 - The color red has been implicated in a variety of social processes, including those involving mating. While previous research suggests that women sometimes wear red strategically to increase their attractiveness, the replicability of this literature has been questioned. The current research is a reasonably powered conceptual replication designed to strengthen this literature by testing whether women are more inclined to display the color red 1) during fertile (as compared with less fertile) days of the menstrual cycle, and 2) when expecting to interact with an attractive man (as compared with a less attractive man and with a control condition). Analyses controlled for a number of theoretically relevant covariates (relationship status, age, the current weather). Only the latter hypothesis received mixed support (mainly among women on hormonal birth control), whereas results concerning the former hypothesis did not reach significance. Women (N = 281) displayed more red when expecting to interact with an attractive man; findings did not support the prediction that women would increase their display of red on fertile days of the cycle. Findings thus suggested only mixed replicability for the link between the color red and psychological processes involving romantic attraction. They also illustrate the importance of further investigating the boundary conditions of color effects on everyday social processes. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284035 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 18 IS - 4 PB - PLOS CY - San Fransisco ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schmicker, Marlen A1 - Frühling, Insa A1 - Menze, Inga A1 - Glanz, Wenzel A1 - Müller, Patrick A1 - Noesselt, Toemme A1 - Müller, Notger Germar T1 - The potential role of gustatory function as an early diagnostic marker for the risk of alzheimer's disease in subjective cognitive decline JF - Journal of Alzheimer's disease reports : JADR N2 - Background: Patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD) report memory deterioration and are at an increased risk of converting to Alzheimer's disease (AD) although psychophysical testing does not reveal any cognitive deficit. Objective: Here, gustatory function is investigated as a potential predictor for an increased risk of progressive cognitive decline indicating higher AD risk in SCD. Methods: Measures of smell and taste perception as well as neuropsychological data were assessed in patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD): Subgroups with an increased likelihood of the progression to preclinical AD (SCD+) and those with a lower likelihood (SCD-) were compared to healthy controls (HC), patients with mild cognitive impairment and AD patients. The Sniffin' Sticks test contained 12 items with different qualities and taste was measured with 32 taste stripes (sweet, salty, bitter, sour) of different concentration. Results: Only taste was able to distinguish between HC/SCD- and SCD+ patients. Conclusion: This study provides a first hint of taste as a more sensitive marker than smell for detecting preclinical AD in SCD. Longitudinal observation of cognition and pathology are necessary to further evaluate taste perception as a predictor of pathological objective decline in cognition. KW - Alzheimer's disease KW - dementia KW - diagnostic marker KW - early diagnosis KW - subjective cognitive decline KW - taste Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3233/ADR220092 SN - 2542-4823 VL - 7 IS - 1 SP - 249 EP - 262 PB - IOS Press CY - Clifton, VA ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Scheiffele, Lena A1 - Petrova, Katya Dimitrova A1 - Budach, Christian A1 - Schrön, Martin A1 - Trost, Benjamin A1 - Rasche, Daniel A1 - Güntner, Andreas A1 - Doepper, Veronika A1 - Förster, Michael A1 - Köhli, Markus A1 - Angermann, Lisa A1 - Antonoglou, Nikolaos A1 - Zude, Manuela A1 - Oswald, Sascha T1 - Three years of soil moisture observations by a dense cosmic-ray neutron sensing cluster at an agricultural research site in north-east Germany JF - Earth system science data : ESSD N2 - Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) allows for the estimation of root-zone soil water content (SWC) at the scale of several hectares. In this paper, we present the data recorded by a dense CRNS network operated from 2019 to 2022 at an agricultural research site in Marquardt, Germany - the first multi-year CRNS cluster. Consisting, at its core, of eight permanently installed CRNS sensors, the cluster was supplemented by a wealth of complementary measurements: data from seven additional temporary CRNS sensors, partly co-located with the permanent ones; 27 SWC profiles (mostly permanent); two groundwater observation wells; meteorological records; and Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R). Complementary to these continuous measurements, numerous campaign-based activities provided data by mobile CRNS roving, hyperspectral im-agery via UASs, intensive manual sampling of soil properties (SWC, bulk density, organic matter, texture, soil hydraulic properties), and observations of biomass and snow (cover, depth, and density). The unique temporal coverage of 3 years entails a broad spectrum of hydro-meteorological conditions, including exceptional drought periods and extreme rainfall but also episodes of snow coverage, as well as a dedicated irrigation experiment. Apart from serving to advance CRNS-related retrieval methods, this data set is expected to be useful for vari-ous disciplines, for example, soil and groundwater hydrology, agriculture, or remote sensing. Hence, we show exemplary features of the data set in order to highlight the potential for such subsequent studies. The data are available at doi.org/10.23728/b2share.551095325d74431881185fba1eb09c95 (Heistermann et al., 2022b). Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3243-2023 SN - 1866-3508 SN - 1866-3516 VL - 15 IS - 7 SP - 3243 EP - 3262 PB - Copernics Publications CY - Katlenburg-Lindau ER - TY - JOUR A1 - de Carvalho Souza, Alyson Matheus A1 - Barrocas, Roberta A1 - Fischer, Martin H. A1 - Arnaud, Emanuel A1 - Moeller, Korbinian A1 - Rennó-Costa, César T1 - Combining virtual reality and tactile stimulation to investigate embodied finger-based numerical representations JF - Frontiers in psychology / Frontiers Research Foundation N2 - Finger-based representation of numbers is a high-level cognitive strategy to assist numerical and arithmetic processing in children and adults. It is unclear whether this paradigm builds on simple perceptual features or comprises several attributes through embodiment. Here we describe the development and initial testing of an experimental setup to study embodiment during a finger-based numerical task using Virtual Reality (VR) and a low-cost tactile stimulator that is easy to build. Using VR allows us to create new ways to study finger-based numerical representation using a virtual hand that can be manipulated in ways our hand cannot, such as decoupling tactile and visual stimuli. The goal is to present a new methodology that can allow researchers to study embodiment through this new approach, maybe shedding new light on the cognitive strategy behind the finger-based representation of numbers. In this case, a critical methodological requirement is delivering precisely targeted sensory stimuli to specific effectors while simultaneously recording their behavior and engaging the participant in a simulated experience. We tested the device's capability by stimulating users in different experimental configurations. Results indicate that our device delivers reliable tactile stimulation to all fingers of a participant's hand without losing motion tracking quality during an ongoing task. This is reflected by an accuracy of over 95% in participants detecting stimulation of a single finger or multiple fingers in sequential stimulation as indicated by experiments with sixteen participants. We discuss possible application scenarios, explain how to apply our methodology to study the embodiment of finger-based numerical representations and other high-level cognitive functions, and discuss potential further developments of the device based on the data obtained in our testing. KW - virtual reality KW - numerical cognition KW - finger counting KW - embodied cognition KW - cognitive science KW - virtual environment Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1119561 SN - 1664-1078 VL - 14 PB - Frontiers Research Foundation CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stübler, Sabine A1 - Kloft, Charlotte A1 - Huisinga, Wilhelm T1 - Cell-level systems biology model to study inflammatory bowel diseases and their treatment options JF - CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology N2 - To help understand the complex and therapeutically challenging inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs), we developed a systems biology model of the intestinal immune system that is able to describe main aspects of IBD and different treatment modalities thereof. The model, including key cell types and processes of the mucosal immune response, compiles a large amount of isolated experimental findings from literature into a larger context and allows for simulations of different inflammation scenarios based on the underlying data and assumptions. In the context of a large and diverse virtual IBD population, we characterized the patients based on their phenotype (in contrast to healthy individuals, they developed persistent inflammation after a trigger event) rather than on a priori assumptions on parameter differences to a healthy individual. This allowed to reproduce the enormous diversity of predispositions known to lead to IBD. Analyzing different treatment effects, the model provides insight into characteristics of individual drug therapy. We illustrate for anti-TNF-alpha therapy, how the model can be used (i) to decide for alternative treatments with best prospects in the case of nonresponse, and (ii) to identify promising combination therapies with other available treatment options. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/psp4.12932 SN - 2163-8306 VL - 12 IS - 5 SP - 690 EP - 705 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ehrig, Lukas A1 - Wagner, Ann-Christin A1 - Wolter, Heike A1 - Correll, Christoph U. A1 - Geisel, Olga A1 - Konigorski, Stefan T1 - FASDetect as a machine learning-based screening app for FASD in youth with ADHD JF - npj Digital Medicine N2 - Fetal alcohol-spectrum disorder (FASD) is underdiagnosed and often misdiagnosed as attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Here, we develop a screening tool for FASD in youth with ADHD symptoms. To develop the prediction model, medical record data from a German University outpatient unit are assessed including 275 patients aged 0-19 years old with FASD with or without ADHD and 170 patients with ADHD without FASD aged 0-19 years old. We train 6 machine learning models based on 13 selected variables and evaluate their performance. Random forest models yield the best prediction models with a cross-validated AUC of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [0.84, 0.99]). Follow-up analyses indicate that a random forest model with 6 variables - body length and head circumference at birth, IQ, socially intrusive behaviour, poor memory and sleep disturbance - yields equivalent predictive accuracy. We implement the prediction model in a web-based app called FASDetect - a user-friendly, clinically scalable FASD risk calculator that is freely available at https://fasdetect.dhc-lab.hpi.de. KW - Medical research KW - Psychiatric disorders Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-023-00864-1 SN - 2398-6352 VL - 6 IS - 1 PB - Macmillan Publishers Limited CY - Basingstoke ER -