TY - JOUR A1 - Topuz, Birol T1 - Quranic verses shaping Djem and false perception of Alevism in the society JF - International journal of islamic thought : IJIT N2 - It is seen that the Alevi-Sunni relations are mostly shaped by the stereotyped perceptions of the two groups about each other. In particular, the fact that Alevism is a closed society due to the pressure they have experienced throughout history has prevented them from being perceived correctly. As such, it is seen that there are many misconceptions about Alevis and their rituals that do not match the reality but are accepted as correct by the society. Due to the lack of communication that could not be developed through this "unknown" in the historical process, Alevi-Sunni relations have always been open to manipulations. As a matter of fact, it is seen that Alevis' relations with Islam, the Djem ceremonies that form the basis of Alevism, and the content of Djem ceremonies have always remained a mystery to Sunnis. Unfortunately, this misperception also reflected negatively on the communication between the two groups. As it is known, if stereotypes arise when there is incorrect information about the target group, the best way to correct them is to create common contact environments that will bring individuals to the right information. Here in this article, the unknown Djem ritual and especially the Qur'anic verses that they refer to during the Djem ceremonies are discussed. KW - words KW - Alevis KW - Sunnis KW - Djem KW - verses of Quran in Djem Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.24035/ijit.21.2022.223 SN - 2232-1314 SN - 2289-6023 VL - 21 SP - 35 EP - 45 PB - University of Kebansaan, Malaysia CY - Kuala Lumpur ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Heinrich, Ingo A1 - Balanzategui, Daniel A1 - Bens, Oliver A1 - Blasch, Gerald A1 - Blume, Theresa A1 - Boettcher, Falk A1 - Borg, Erik A1 - Brademann, Brian A1 - Brauer, Achim A1 - Conrad, Christopher A1 - Dietze, Elisabeth A1 - Dräger, Nadine A1 - Fiener, Peter A1 - Gerke, Horst H. A1 - Güntner, Andreas A1 - Heine, Iris A1 - Helle, Gerhard A1 - Herbrich, Marcus A1 - Harfenmeister, Katharina A1 - Heussner, Karl-Uwe A1 - Hohmann, Christian A1 - Itzerott, Sibylle A1 - Jurasinski, Gerald A1 - Kaiser, Knut A1 - Kappler, Christoph A1 - Koebsch, Franziska A1 - Liebner, Susanne A1 - Lischeid, Gunnar A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Missling, Klaus Dieter A1 - Morgner, Markus A1 - Pinkerneil, Sylvia A1 - Plessen, Birgit A1 - Raab, Thomas A1 - Ruhtz, Thomas A1 - Sachs, Torsten A1 - Sommer, Michael A1 - Spengler, Daniel A1 - Stender, Vivien A1 - Stüve, Peter A1 - Wilken, Florian T1 - Interdisciplinary Geo-ecological Research across Time Scales in the Northeast German Lowland Observatory (TERENO-NE) JF - Vadose zone journal N2 - The Northeast German Lowland Observatory (TERENO-NE) was established to investigate the regional impact of climate and land use change. TERENO-NE focuses on the Northeast German lowlands, for which a high vulnerability has been determined due to increasing temperatures and decreasing amounts of precipitation projected for the coming decades. To facilitate in-depth evaluations of the effects of climate and land use changes and to separate the effects of natural and anthropogenic drivers in the region, six sites were chosen for comprehensive monitoring. In addition, at selected sites, geoarchives were used to substantially extend the instrumental records back in time. It is this combination of diverse disciplines working across different time scales that makes the observatory TERENO-NE a unique observation platform. We provide information about the general characteristics of the observatory and its six monitoring sites and present examples of interdisciplinary research activities at some of these sites. We also illustrate how monitoring improves process understanding, how remote sensing techniques are fine-tuned by the most comprehensive ground-truthing site DEMMIN, how soil erosion dynamics have evolved, how greenhouse gas monitoring of rewetted peatlands can reveal unexpected mechanisms, and how proxy data provides a long-term perspective of current ongoing changes. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2018.06.0116 SN - 1539-1663 VL - 17 IS - 1 PB - Soil Science Society of America CY - Madison ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sairam, Nivedita A1 - Brill, Fabio Alexander A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Farrag, Mostafa A1 - Kellermann, Patric A1 - Viet Dung Nguyen, A1 - Lüdtke, Stefan A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - Process-based flood risk assessment for Germany JF - Earth's future / American Geophysical Union N2 - Large-scale flood risk assessments are crucial for decision making, especially with respect to new flood defense schemes, adaptation planning and estimating insurance premiums. We apply the process-based Regional Flood Model (RFM) to simulate a 5000-year flood event catalog for all major catchments in Germany and derive risk curves based on the losses per economic sector. The RFM uses a continuous process simulation including a multisite, multivariate weather generator, a hydrological model considering heterogeneous catchment processes, a coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model considering dike overtopping and hinterland storage, spatially explicit sector-wise exposure data and empirical multi-variable loss models calibrated for Germany. For all components, uncertainties in the data and models are estimated. We estimate the median Expected Annual Damage (EAD) and Value at Risk at 99.5% confidence for Germany to be euro0.529 bn and euro8.865 bn, respectively. The commercial sector dominates by making about 60% of the total risk, followed by the residential sector. The agriculture sector gets affected by small return period floods and only contributes to less than 3% to the total risk. The overall EAD is comparable to other large-scale estimates. However, the estimation of losses for specific return periods is substantially improved. The spatial consistency of the risk estimates avoids the large overestimation of losses for rare events that is common in other large-scale assessments with homogeneous return periods. Thus, the process-based, spatially consistent flood risk assessment by RFM is an important step forward and will serve as a benchmark for future German-wide flood risk assessments. KW - risk model chain KW - continuous simulation KW - expected annual damage KW - risk KW - curves KW - multi-sector risk Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002259 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 9 IS - 10 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken, NJ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Pittore, Massimiliano A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Bresch, David N. A1 - Domeisen, Daniela I. A1 - Feser, Frauke A1 - Koszalka, Inga A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Pantillon, Florian A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Pinto, Joaquim G. A1 - Punge, Heinz Jürgen A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Strehlow, Karen A1 - Weisse, Ralf A1 - Wurpts, Andreas T1 - Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards JF - Reviews of geophysics N2 - Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. KW - impact forecasting KW - natural hazards KW - early warning Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704 SN - 8755-1209 SN - 1944-9208 VL - 58 IS - 4 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Macdonald, Elena A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Guse, Björn A1 - Wietzke, Luzie A1 - Ullrich, Sophie A1 - Kemter, Matthias A1 - Ahrens, Bodo A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy T1 - Event and catchment controls of heavy tail behavior of floods JF - Water resources research N2 - In some catchments, the distribution of annual maximum streamflow shows heavy tail behavior, meaning the occurrence probability of extreme events is higher than if the upper tail decayed exponentially. Neglecting heavy tail behavior can lead to an underestimation of the likelihood of extreme floods and the associated risk. Partly contradictory results regarding the controls of heavy tail behavior exist in the literature and the knowledge is still very dispersed and limited. To better understand the drivers, we analyze the upper tail behavior and its controls for 480 catchments in Germany and Austria over a period of more than 50 years. The catchments span from quickly reacting mountain catchments to large lowland catchments, allowing for general conclusions. We compile a wide range of event and catchment characteristics and investigate their association with an indicator of the tail heaviness of flood distributions, namely the shape parameter of the GEV distribution. Following univariate analyses of these characteristics, along with an evaluation of different aggregations of event characteristics, multiple linear regression models, as well as random forests, are constructed. A novel slope indicator, which represents the relation between the return period of flood peaks and event characteristics, captures the controls of heavy tails best. Variables describing the catchment response are found to dominate the heavy tail behavior, followed by event precipitation, flood seasonality, and catchment size. The pre-event moisture state in a catchment has no relevant impact on the tail heaviness even though it does influence flood magnitudes. KW - heavy tail behavior KW - floods KW - event characteristics KW - catchment KW - characteristics KW - catchment response Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031260 SN - 0043-1397 SN - 1944-7973 VL - 58 IS - 6 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Metin, Ayse Duha A1 - Nguyen Viet Dung, A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Guse, Björn A1 - Apel, Heiko A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk? JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences N2 - Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018 SN - 1561-8633 SN - 1684-9981 VL - 18 IS - 11 SP - 3089 EP - 3108 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Murawski, Aline A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Can local climate variability be explained by weather patterns? A multi-station evaluation for the Rhine basin JF - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS N2 - To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and in particular the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. This approach assumes a strong link between weather patterns and local climate, and sufficient GCM skill in reproducing weather pattern climatology. These presuppositions are unprecedentedly evaluated here using 111 years of daily climate data from 490 stations in the Rhine basin and comprehensively testing the number of classification parameters and GCM weather pattern characteristics. A classification based on a combination of mean sea level pressure, temperature, and humidity from the ERA20C reanalysis of atmospheric fields over central Europe with 40 weather types was found to be the most appropriate for stratifying six local climate variables. The corresponding skill is quite diverse though, ranging from good for radiation to poor for precipitation. Especially for the latter it was apparent that pressure fields alone cannot sufficiently stratify local variability. To test the skill of the latest generation of GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble in reproducing the frequency, seasonality, and persistence of the derived weather patterns, output from 15 GCMs is evaluated. Most GCMs are able to capture these characteristics well, but some models showed consistent deviations in all three evaluation criteria and should be excluded from further attribution analysis. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 20 SP - 4283 EP - 4306 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Metin, Ayse Duha A1 - Dung, Nguyen Viet A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Guse, Björn A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - The role of spatial dependence for large-scale flood risk estimation JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences N2 - Flood risk assessments are typically based on scenarios which assume homogeneous return periods of flood peaks throughout the catchment. This assumption is unrealistic for real flood events and may bias risk estimates for specific return periods. We investigate how three assumptions about the spatial dependence affect risk estimates: (i) spatially homogeneous scenarios (complete dependence), (ii) spatially heterogeneous scenarios (modelled dependence) and (iii) spatially heterogeneous but uncorrelated scenarios (complete independence). To this end, the model chain RFM (regional flood model) is applied to the Elbe catchment in Germany, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of all flood generation processes, from the rainfall through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms. Different assumptions about the spatial dependence do not influence the expected annual damage (EAD); however, they bias the risk curve, i.e. the cumulative distribution function of damage. The widespread assumption of complete dependence strongly overestimates flood damage of the order of 100% for return periods larger than approximately 200 years. On the other hand, for small and medium floods with return periods smaller than approximately 50 years, damage is underestimated. The overestimation aggravates when risk is estimated for larger areas. This study demonstrates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020 SN - 1561-8633 SN - 1684-9981 VL - 20 IS - 4 SP - 967 EP - 979 PB - European Geosciences Union (EGU) ; Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Nguyen, Viet Dung A1 - Apel, Heiko A1 - Gerlitz, Lars A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Steirou, Eva Styliani A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy T1 - Spatial coherence of flood-rich and flood-poor periods across Germany JF - Journal of hydrology N2 - Despite its societal relevance, the question whether fluctuations in flood occurrence or magnitude are coherent in space has hardly been addressed in quantitative terms. We investigate this question for Germany by analysing fluctuations in annual maximum series (AMS) values at 68 discharge gauges for the common time period 1932-2005. We find remarkable spatial coherence across Germany given its different flood regimes. For example, there is a tendency that flood-rich/-poor years in sub-catchments of the Rhine basin, which are dominated by winter floods, coincide with flood-rich/-poor years in the southern sub-catchments of the Danube basin, which have their dominant flood season in summer. Our findings indicate that coherence is caused rather by persistence in catchment wetness than by persistent periods of higher/lower event precipitation. Further, we propose to differentiate between event-type and non-event-type coherence. There are quite a number of hydrological years with considerable nonevent-type coherence, i.e. AMS values of the 68 gauges are spread out through the year but in the same magnitude range. Years with extreme flooding tend to be of event-type and non-coherent, i.e. there is at least one precipitation event that affects many catchments to various degree. Although spatial coherence is a remarkable phenomenon, and large-scale flooding across Germany can lead to severe situations, extreme magnitudes across the whole country within one event or within one year were not observed in the investigated period. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Flood timing KW - Spatial coherence KW - Flood regimes KW - Climate variability KW - Catchment wetness Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.082 SN - 0022-1694 SN - 1879-2707 VL - 559 SP - 813 EP - 826 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schneider, Johannes A1 - Wenig, Phillip A1 - Papenbrock, Thorsten T1 - Distributed detection of sequential anomalies in univariate time series JF - The VLDB journal : the international journal on very large data bases N2 - The automated detection of sequential anomalies in time series is an essential task for many applications, such as the monitoring of technical systems, fraud detection in high-frequency trading, or the early detection of disease symptoms. All these applications require the detection to find all sequential anomalies possibly fast on potentially very large time series. In other words, the detection needs to be effective, efficient and scalable w.r.t. the input size. Series2Graph is an effective solution based on graph embeddings that are robust against re-occurring anomalies and can discover sequential anomalies of arbitrary length and works without training data. Yet, Series2Graph is no t scalable due to its single-threaded approach; it cannot, in particular, process arbitrarily large sequences due to the memory constraints of a single machine. In this paper, we propose our distributed anomaly detection system, short DADS, which is an efficient and scalable adaptation of Series2Graph. Based on the actor programming model, DADS distributes the input time sequence, intermediate state and the computation to all processors of a cluster in a way that minimizes communication costs and synchronization barriers. Our evaluation shows that DADS is orders of magnitude faster than S2G, scales almost linearly with the number of processors in the cluster and can process much larger input sequences due to its scale-out property. KW - Distributed programming KW - Sequential anomaly KW - Actor model KW - Data mining KW - Time series Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00778-021-00657-6 SN - 1066-8888 SN - 0949-877X VL - 30 IS - 4 SP - 579 EP - 602 PB - Springer CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Barendrecht, Marlies H. A1 - Viglione, Alberto A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Blöschl, G. T1 - The Value of Empirical Data for Estimating the Parameters of a Sociohydrological Flood Risk Model JF - Water resources research N2 - In this paper, empirical data are used to estimate the parameters of a sociohydrological flood risk model. The proposed model, which describes the interactions between floods, settlement density, awareness, preparedness, and flood loss, is based on the literature. Data for the case study of Dresden, Germany, over a period of 200years, are used to estimate the model parameters through Bayesian inference. The credibility bounds of their estimates are small, even though the data are rather uncertain. A sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the value of the different data sources in estimating the model parameters. In general, the estimated parameters are less biased when using data at the end of the modeled period. Data about flood awareness are the most important to correctly estimate the parameters of this model and to correctly model the system dynamics. Using more data for other variables cannot compensate for the absence of awareness data. More generally, the absence of data mostly affects the estimation of the parameters that are directly related to the variable for which data are missing. This paper demonstrates that combining sociohydrological modeling and empirical data gives additional insights into the sociohydrological system, such as quantifying the forgetfulness of the society, which would otherwise not be easily achieved by sociohydrological models without data or by standard statistical analysis of empirical data. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024128 SN - 0043-1397 SN - 1944-7973 VL - 55 IS - 2 SP - 1312 EP - 1336 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Winter, Benjamin A1 - Schneeberger, Klaus A1 - Dung, N. V. A1 - Huttenlau, M. A1 - Achleitner, S. A1 - Stötter, J. A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy T1 - A continuous modelling approach for design flood estimation on sub-daily time scale JF - Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques N2 - Design flood estimation is an essential part of flood risk assessment. Commonly applied are flood frequency analyses and design storm approaches, while the derived flood frequency using continuous simulation has been getting more attention recently. In this study, a continuous hydrological modelling approach on an hourly time scale, driven by a multi-site weather generator in combination with a -nearest neighbour resampling procedure, based on the method of fragments, is applied. The derived 100-year flood estimates in 16 catchments in Vorarlberg (Austria) are compared to (a) the flood frequency analysis based on observed discharges, and (b) a design storm approach. Besides the peak flows, the corresponding runoff volumes are analysed. The spatial dependence structure of the synthetically generated flood peaks is validated against observations. It can be demonstrated that the continuous modelling approach can achieve plausible results and shows a large variability in runoff volume across the flood events. KW - derived flood frequency KW - continuous modelling KW - temporal disaggregation KW - flood hazard KW - synthetic flood events Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1593419 SN - 0262-6667 SN - 2150-3435 VL - 64 IS - 5 SP - 539 EP - 554 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Farrag, Mostafa A1 - Brill, Fabio Alexander A1 - Nguyen, Viet Dung A1 - Sairam, Nivedita A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - de Bruijn, Karin M. A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy T1 - On the role of floodplain storage and hydrodynamic interactions in flood risk estimation JF - Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques N2 - Hydrodynamic interactions, i.e. the floodplain storage effects caused by inundations upstream on flood wave propagation, inundation areas, and flood damage downstream, are important but often ignored in large-scale flood risk assessments. Although new methods considering these effects sometimes emerge, they are often limited to a small or meso scale. In this study, we investigate the role of hydrodynamic interactions and floodplain storage on flood hazard and risk in the German part of the Rhine basin. To do so, we compare a new continuous 1D routing scheme within a flood risk model chain to the piece-wise routing scheme, which largely neglects floodplain storage. The results show that floodplain storage is significant, lowers water levels and discharges, and reduces risks by over 50%. Therefore, for accurate risk assessments, a system approach must be adopted, and floodplain storage and hydrodynamic interactions must carefully be considered. KW - hydrodynamic interactions KW - derived flood risk analysis KW - flood modelling; KW - Rhine basin Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2022.2030058 SN - 0262-6667 SN - 2150-3435 VL - 67 IS - 4 SP - 508 EP - 534 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wietzke, Luzie M. A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Gerlitz, Lars A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Guse, Björn A1 - Castellarin, Attilio A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy T1 - Comparative analysis of scalar upper tail indicators JF - Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques N2 - Different upper tail indicators exist to characterize heavy tail phenomena, but no comparative study has been carried out so far. We evaluate the shape parameter (GEV), obesity index, Gini index and upper tail ratio (UTR) against a novel benchmark of tail heaviness - the surprise factor. Sensitivity analyses to sample size and changes in scale-to-location ratio are carried out in bootstrap experiments. The UTR replicates the surprise factor best but is most uncertain and only comparable between records of similar length. For samples with symmetric Lorenz curves, shape parameter, obesity and Gini indices provide consistent indications. For asymmetric Lorenz curves, however, the first two tend to overestimate, whereas Gini index tends to underestimate tail heaviness. We suggest the use of a combination of shape parameter, obesity and Gini index to characterize tail heaviness. These indicators should be supported with calculation of the Lorenz asymmetry coefficients and interpreted with caution. KW - upper tail behaviour KW - heavy-tailed distributions KW - extremes KW - diagnostics KW - surprise Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1769104 SN - 0262-6667 SN - 2150-3435 VL - 65 IS - 10 SP - 1625 EP - 1639 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Lall, Upmanu A1 - Viglione, Alberto A1 - Blöschl, Günter T1 - Charting unknown waters-On the role of surprise in flood risk assessment and management JF - Water resources research N2 - Unexpected incidents, failures, and disasters are abundant in the history of flooding events. In this paper, we introduce the metaphors of terra incognita and terra maligna to illustrate unknown and wicked flood situations, respectively. We argue that surprise is a neglected element in flood risk assessment and management. Two sources of surprise are identified: (1) the complexity of flood risk systems, represented by nonlinearities, interdependencies, and nonstationarities and (2) cognitive biases in human perception and decision making. Flood risk assessment and management are particularly prone to cognitive biases due to the rarity and uniqueness of extremes, and the nature of human risk perception. We reflect on possible approaches to better understanding and reducing the potential for surprise and its adverse consequences which may be supported by conceptually charting maps that separate terra incognita from terra cognita, and terra maligna from terra benigna. We conclude that flood risk assessment and management should account for the potential for surprise and devastating consequences which will require a shift in thinking. Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017464 SN - 0043-1397 SN - 1944-7973 VL - 51 IS - 8 SP - 6399 EP - 6416 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Asche, Matthias A1 - Brechenmacher, Thomas A1 - Biermann, Felix A1 - Partenheimer, Lutz A1 - Folwarczny, Uwe A1 - Niggemann, Ulrich A1 - Göse, Frank A1 - Höpel, Thomas A1 - Czech, Vinzenz A1 - Yaldiz, Yunus A1 - Martin, Angela A1 - Bahl, Peter A1 - Schenck, Marcia C. A1 - Glöckner, Olaf ED - Asche, Matthias ED - Brechenmacher, Thomas T1 - Hier geblieben? BT - Brandenburg als Einwanderungsland vom Mittelalter bis heute N2 - Die historische Forschung hat seit längerem herausgearbeitet, dass Migration nichts von einer Norm Abweichendes ist, sondern vielmehr ein »konstitutives Element der Menschheitsgeschichte« (J. Oltmer), der Mensch mithin stets ein »homo migrans« (K.-J. Bade) war. Auch die Geschichte Brandenburgs wurde seit jeher von Einwanderungsprozessen geprägt. Von »Toleranz« im modernen Sinne kann freilich keine Rede sein, sondern meistens ging es um ökonomisch nutzbringende Aufnahme bestimmter Gruppen. Sehr oft waren die Ansiedlungen aber auch das Ergebnis von Flucht, Vertreibung und kriegerischer Gewalt. Der vorliegende Band zeigt anhand von Beispielen vom frühen Mittelalter bis zur Gegenwart die Bedeutung der Zuwanderung für Brandenburg auf. Der Bogen reicht von der slawischen Einwanderung des 8./9. Jahrhunderts bis zur Ankunft russisch-jüdischer »Kontingentflüchtlinge« im Gefolge der deutschen Wiedervereinigung, von Niederländern, Juden, Hugenotten, Revolutionsflüchtlingen in der Frühen Neuzeit bis hin zu Muslimen, Zwangsarbeitern, Vertriebenen und DDR-»Fremdarbeitern« im 20. Jahrhundert – eine Geschichte der Vielfalt des brandenburgischen Raumes und seiner Bevölkerung im Spiegel der Zuwanderung. KW - Brandenburg KW - Berlin KW - Migrationsgeschichte KW - Einwanderung KW - Auswanderung Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-499360 SN - 978-3-86956-506-4 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Swierczynski, Tina A1 - Lauterbach, Stefan A1 - Dulski, Peter A1 - Delgado, Jose Miguel Martins A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Brauer, Achim T1 - Mid- to late holocene flood frequency changes in the northeastern Alps as recorded in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) JF - Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal N2 - Annually laminated (varved) lake sediments with intercalated detrital layers resulting from sedimentary input by runoff events are ideal archives to establish precisely dated records of past extreme runoff events. In this study, the mid- to late Holocene varved sediments of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) were analysed by combining sedimentological, geophysical and geochemical methods. This approach allows to distinguish two types of detrital layers related to different types of extreme runoff events (floods and debris flows) and to detect changes in flood activity during the last 7100 years. In total, 271 flood and 47 debris flow layers, deposited during spring and summer, were identified, which cluster in 18 main flood episodes (FE 1-18) with durations of 30-50 years each. These main flood periods occurred during the Neolithic (7100-7050 vyr BP and 6470-4450 vyr BP), the late Bronze Age and the early Iron Age (3300-3250 and 2800-2750 vyr BP), the late Iron Age (2050-2000 vyr BP), throughout the Dark Ages Cold Period (1500-1200 vyr BP), and at the end of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age (810-430 vyr BP). Summer flood episodes in Lake Mondsee are generally more abundant during the last 1500 years, often coinciding with major advances of Alpine glaciers. Prior to 1500 vyr BP, spring/summer floods and debris flows are generally less frequent, indicating a lower number of intense rainfall events that triggered erosion. In comparison with the increase of late Holocene flood activity in western and northwestern (NW) Europe, commencing already as early as 2800 yr BP, the hydro-meteorological shift in the Lake Mondsee region occurred much later. These time lags in the onset of increased hydrological activity might be either due to regional differences in atmospheric circulation pattern or to the sensitivity of the individual flood archives. The Lake Mondsee sediments represent the first precisely dated and several millennia long summer flood record for the northeastern (NE) Alps, a key region at the climatic boundary of Atlantic, Mediterranean and East European air masses, aiding a better understanding of regional and seasonal peculiarities of flood occurrence under changing climate conditions. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Varved lake sediments KW - Detrital layers KW - mu RF KW - Microfacies KW - Palaeofloods KW - Flood frequency Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.08.018 SN - 0277-3791 VL - 80 SP - 78 EP - 90 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Di Baldassarre, Giuliano A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. A1 - Apel, Heiko A1 - Aronica, Giuseppe T. A1 - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten A1 - Bouwer, Laurens M. A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Caloiero, Tommaso A1 - Chinh, Do T. A1 - Cortes, Maria A1 - Gain, Animesh K. A1 - Giampa, Vincenzo A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. A1 - Llasat, Maria Carmen A1 - Mard, Johanna A1 - Matczak, Piotr A1 - Mazzoleni, Maurizio A1 - Molinari, Daniela A1 - Dung, Nguyen V. A1 - Petrucci, Olga A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Slager, Kymo A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Ward, Philip J. A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Adaptation to flood risk BT - Results of international paired flood event studies JF - Earth's Future N2 - As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur. KW - flooding KW - vulnerability KW - global environmental change KW - adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000606 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 5 SP - 953 EP - 965 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gerlitz, Lars A1 - Steirou, Eva A1 - Schneider, Christoph A1 - Moron, Vincent A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part II: Hydroclimatic Predictability JF - Journal of climate N2 - Central Asia (CA) is subjected to a large variability of precipitation. This study presents a statistical model, relating precipitation anomalies in three subregions of CA in the cold season (November-March) with various predictors in the preceding October. Promising forecast skill is achieved for two subregions covering 1) Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and southern Kazakhstan and 2) Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. ENSO in October is identified as the major predictor. Eurasian snow cover and the quasi-biennial oscillation further improve the forecast performance. To understand the physical mechanisms, an analysis of teleconnections between these predictors and the wintertime circulation over CA is conducted. The correlation analysis of predictors and large-scale circulation indices suggests a seasonal persistence of tropical circulation modes and a dynamical forcing of the westerly circulation by snow cover variations over Eurasia. An EOF analysis of pressure and humidity patterns allows separating the circulation variability over CA into westerly and tropical modes and confirms that the identified predictors affect the respective circulation characteristics. Based on the previously established weather type classification for CA, the predictors are investigated with regard to their effect on the regional circulation. The results suggest a modification of the Hadley cell due to ENSO variations, with enhanced moisture supply from the Arabian Gulf during El Nino. They further indicate an influence of Eurasian snow cover on the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Northern Hemispheric Rossby wave tracks. Positive anomalies favor weather types associated with dry conditions, while negative anomalies promote the formation of a quasi-stationary trough over CA, which typically occurs during positive AO conditions. KW - Asia KW - Climate prediction KW - Seasonal forecasting KW - North Atlantic Oscillation KW - Southern Oscillation Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0892.1 SN - 0894-8755 SN - 1520-0442 VL - 32 IS - 18 SP - 6015 EP - 6033 PB - American Meteorological Soc. CY - Boston ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wenig, Phillip A1 - Schmidl, Sebastian A1 - Papenbrock, Thorsten T1 - TimeEval: a benchmarking toolkit for time series anomaly detection algorithms JF - Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment N2 - Detecting anomalous subsequences in time series is an important task in time series analytics because it serves the identification of special events, such as production faults, delivery bottlenecks, system defects, or heart flicker. Consequently, many algorithms have been developed for the automatic detection of such anomalous patterns. The enormous number of approaches (i.e., more than 158 as of today), the lack of properly labeled test data, and the complexity of time series anomaly benchmarking have, though, led to a situation where choosing the best detection technique for a given anomaly detection task is a difficult challenge. In this demonstration, we present TIMEEVAL, an extensible, scalable and automatic benchmarking toolkit for time series anomaly detection algorithms. TIMEEVAL includes an extensive data generator and supports both interactive and batch evaluation scenarios. With our novel toolkit, we aim to ease the evaluation effort and help the community to provide more meaningful evaluations. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.14778/3554821.3554873 SN - 2150-8097 VL - 15 IS - 12 SP - 3678 EP - 3681 PB - Association for Computing Machinery CY - New York, NY ER -