TY - GEN A1 - Risbey, James S. A1 - Lewandowsky, Stephan A1 - Cowtan, Kevin A1 - Oreskes, Naomi A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Jokimäki, Ari A1 - Foster, Grant T1 - A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context BT - reassessment and retrospective on the evidence T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1023 KW - climate variability KW - climate trends KW - temperature fluctuation KW - pause hiatus Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468041 SN - 1866-8372 VL - 13 IS - 1023 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Mann, Michael E. A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Kornhuber, Kai A1 - Steinman, Byron A. A1 - Miller, Sonya K. A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events BT - the role of quasi-resonant amplification T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 994 KW - planetary wave resonance KW - northern KW - atmosphere KW - attribution KW - circulation Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446416 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 994 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Alonso, Sergio A1 - Stange, Maike A1 - Beta, Carsten T1 - Modeling random crawling, membrane deformation and intracellular polarity of motile amoeboid cells T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Amoeboid movement is one of the most widespread forms of cell motility that plays a key role in numerous biological contexts. While many aspects of this process are well investigated, the large cell-to-cell variability in the motile characteristics of an otherwise uniform population remains an open question that was largely ignored by previous models. In this article, we present a mathematical model of amoeboid motility that combines noisy bistable kinetics with a dynamic phase field for the cell shape. To capture cell-to-cell variability, we introduce a single parameter for tuning the balance between polarity formation and intracellular noise. We compare numerical simulations of our model to experiments with the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Despite the simple structure of our model, we found close agreement with the experimental results for the center-of-mass motion as well as for the evolution of the cell shape and the overall intracellular patterns. We thus conjecture that the building blocks of our model capture essential features of amoeboid motility and may serve as a starting point for more detailed descriptions of cell motion in chemical gradients and confined environments. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1014 KW - signaling system KW - eukaryotic chemotaxis KW - Dictyostelium cells KW - actin cytoskeleton KW - excitable networks KW - PIP3 waves KW - migration KW - dynamics KW - oscillations KW - transduction Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-459745 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1014 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Beta, Carsten A1 - Gov, Nir S. A1 - Yochelis, Arik T1 - Why a Large-Scale Mode Can Be Essential for Understanding Intracellular Actin Waves T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - During the last decade, intracellular actin waves have attracted much attention due to their essential role in various cellular functions, ranging from motility to cytokinesis. Experimental methods have advanced significantly and can capture the dynamics of actin waves over a large range of spatio-temporal scales. However, the corresponding coarse-grained theory mostly avoids the full complexity of this multi-scale phenomenon. In this perspective, we focus on a minimal continuum model of activator–inhibitor type and highlight the qualitative role of mass conservation, which is typically overlooked. Specifically, our interest is to connect between the mathematical mechanisms of pattern formation in the presence of a large-scale mode, due to mass conservation, and distinct behaviors of actin waves. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 967 KW - nonlinear waves KW - actin polymerization KW - bifurcation theory KW - mass conservation KW - spatial localization KW - pattern formation KW - activator–inhibitor models Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-473588 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 967 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Mardoukhi, Yousof A1 - Chechkin, Aleksei V. A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Spurious ergodicity breaking in normal and fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is a stationary and ergodic Gaussian process, that is fully determined by its covariance function and mean. We show here that the generic definitions of the ensemble- and time-averaged mean squared displacements fail to capture these properties consistently, leading to a spurious ergodicity breaking. We propose to remedy this failure by redefining the mean squared displacements such that they reflect unambiguously the statistical properties of any stochastic process. In particular we study the effect of the initial condition in the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and its fractional extension. For the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process representing typical experimental situations in crowded environments such as living biological cells, we show that the stationarity of the process delicately depends on the initial condition. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 981 KW - Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process KW - stationary stochastic process KW - ensemble and time averaged mean squared displacement Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-474875 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 981 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Menzel, Ralf A1 - Heuer, Axel A1 - Milonni, Peter W. T1 - Entanglement, complementarity, and vacuum fields in spontaneous parametric down-conversion T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Using two crystals for spontaneous parametric down-conversion in a parallel setup, we observe two-photon interference with high visibility. The high visibility is consistent with complementarity and the absence of which-path information. The observations are explained as the effects of entanglement or equivalently in terms of interfering probability amplitudes and also by the calculation of a second-order field correlation function in the Heisenberg picture. The latter approach brings out explicitly the role of the vacuum fields in the down-conversion at the crystals and in the photon coincidence counting. For comparison, we show that the Hong–Ou–Mandel dip can be explained by the same approach in which the role of the vacuum signal and idler fields, as opposed to entanglement involving vacuum states, is emphasized. We discuss the fundamental limitations of a theory in which these vacuum fields are treated as classical, stochastic fields. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1077 KW - complementarity KW - vacuum fields KW - entanglement KW - Hong-Ou-Mandel effect KW - spontaneous parametric down-conversion Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-473542 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1077 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Shan, Yuli A1 - Guan, Dabo A1 - Hubacek, Klaus A1 - Zheng, Bo A1 - Davis, Steven J. A1 - Jia, Lichao A1 - Liu, Jianghua A1 - Liu, Zhu A1 - Fromer, Neil A1 - Mi, Zhifu A1 - Meng, Jing A1 - Deng, Xiangzheng A1 - Li, Yuan A1 - Lin, Jintai A1 - Schroeder, Heike A1 - Weisz, Helga A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim T1 - City-level climate change mitigation in China T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - As national efforts to reduce CO2 emissions intensify, policy-makers need increasingly specific, subnational information about the sources of CO2 and the potential reductions and economic implications of different possible policies. This is particularly true in China, a large and economically diverse country that has rapidly industrialized and urbanized and that has pledged under the Paris Agreement that its emissions will peak by 2030. We present new, city level estimates of CO2 emissions for 182 Chinese cities, decomposed into 17 different fossil fuels, 46 socioeconomic sectors, and 7 industrial processes. We find that more affluent cities have systematically lower emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), supported by imports from less affluent, industrial cities located nearby. In turn, clusters of industrial cities are supported by nearby centers of coal or oil extraction. Whereas policies directly targeting manufacturing and electric power infrastructure would drastically undermine the GDP of industrial cities, consumption based policies might allow emission reductions to be subsidized by those with greater ability to pay. In particular, sector based analysis of each city suggests that technological improvements could be a practical and effective means of reducing emissions while maintaining growth and the current economic structure and energy system. We explore city-level emission reductions under three scenarios of technological progress to show that substantial reductions (up to 31%) are possible by updating a disproportionately small fraction of existing infrastructure. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1096 KW - carbon-dioxide emissions KW - fired power plants KW - co2 emissions KW - energy use KW - cluster analysis KW - uncertainties KW - urbanization KW - methodology KW - combustion KW - inventory Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-471541 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1096 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Granado, Felipe Le Vot A1 - Abad, Enrique A1 - Metzler, Ralf A1 - Yuste, Santos B. T1 - Continuous time random walk in a velocity field BT - role of domain growth, Galilei-invariant advection-diffusion, and kinetics of particle mixing T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - We consider the emerging dynamics of a separable continuous time random walk (CTRW) in the case when the random walker is biased by a velocity field in a uniformly growing domain. Concrete examples for such domains include growing biological cells or lipid vesicles, biofilms and tissues, but also macroscopic systems such as expanding aquifers during rainy periods, or the expanding Universe. The CTRW in this study can be subdiffusive, normal diffusive or superdiffusive, including the particular case of a Lévy flight. We first consider the case when the velocity field is absent. In the subdiffusive case, we reveal an interesting time dependence of the kurtosis of the particle probability density function. In particular, for a suitable parameter choice, we find that the propagator, which is fat tailed at short times, may cross over to a Gaussian-like propagator. We subsequently incorporate the effect of the velocity field and derive a bi-fractional diffusion-advection equation encoding the time evolution of the particle distribution. We apply this equation to study the mixing kinetics of two diffusing pulses, whose peaks move towards each other under the action of velocity fields acting in opposite directions. This deterministic motion of the peaks, together with the diffusive spreading of each pulse, tends to increase particle mixing, thereby counteracting the peak separation induced by the domain growth. As a result of this competition, different regimes of mixing arise. In the case of Lévy flights, apart from the non-mixing regime, one has two different mixing regimes in the long-time limit, depending on the exact parameter choice: in one of these regimes, mixing is mainly driven by diffusive spreading, while in the other mixing is controlled by the velocity fields acting on each pulse. Possible implications for encounter–controlled reactions in real systems are discussed. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1005 KW - diffusion KW - expanding medium KW - continuous time random walk Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-479997 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1005 SP - 28 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sposini, Vittoria A1 - Metzler, Ralf A1 - Oshanin, Gleb T1 - Single-trajectory spectral analysis of scaled Brownian motion T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Astandard approach to study time-dependent stochastic processes is the power spectral density (PSD), an ensemble-averaged property defined as the Fourier transform of the autocorrelation function of the process in the asymptotic limit of long observation times, T → ∞. In many experimental situations one is able to garner only relatively few stochastic time series of finite T, such that practically neither an ensemble average nor the asymptotic limit T → ∞ can be achieved. To accommodate for a meaningful analysis of such finite-length data we here develop the framework of single-trajectory spectral analysis for one of the standard models of anomalous diffusion, scaled Brownian motion.Wedemonstrate that the frequency dependence of the single-trajectory PSD is exactly the same as for standard Brownian motion, which may lead one to the erroneous conclusion that the observed motion is normal-diffusive. However, a distinctive feature is shown to be provided by the explicit dependence on the measurement time T, and this ageing phenomenon can be used to deduce the anomalous diffusion exponent.Wealso compare our results to the single-trajectory PSD behaviour of another standard anomalous diffusion process, fractional Brownian motion, and work out the commonalities and differences. Our results represent an important step in establishing singletrajectory PSDs as an alternative (or complement) to analyses based on the time-averaged mean squared displacement. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 753 KW - diffusion KW - anomalous diffusion KW - power spectral analysis KW - single trajectory analysis Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-436522 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 753 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Guggenberger, Tobias A1 - Pagnini, Gianni A1 - Vojta, Thomas A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Fractional Brownian motion in a finite interval BT - correlations effect depletion or accretion zones of particles near boundaries T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Fractional Brownian motion (FBM) is a Gaussian stochastic process with stationary, long-time correlated increments and is frequently used to model anomalous diffusion processes. We study numerically FBM confined to a finite interval with reflecting boundary conditions. The probability density function of this reflected FBM at long times converges to a stationary distribution showing distinct deviations from the fully flat distribution of amplitude 1/L in an interval of length L found for reflected normal Brownian motion. While for superdiffusion, corresponding to a mean squared displacement (MSD) 〈X² (t)〉 ⋍ tᵅ with 1 < α < 2, the probability density function is lowered in the centre of the interval and rises towards the boundaries, for subdiffusion (0 < α < 1) this behaviour is reversed and the particle density is depleted close to the boundaries. The MSD in these cases at long times converges to a stationary value, which is, remarkably, monotonically increasing with the anomalous diffusion exponent α. Our a priori surprising results may have interesting consequences for the application of FBM for processes such as molecule or tracer diffusion in the confines of living biological cells or organelles, or other viscoelastic environments such as dense liquids in microfluidic chambers. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 755 KW - anomalous diffusion KW - fractional Brownian motion KW - reflecting boundary conditions Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-436665 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 755 ER -