TY  - JOUR
A1  - Huppert, Amit
A1  - Blasius, Bernd
A1  - Olinky, Ronen
A1  - Stone, Lewi
T1  - A Model for Seasonal Phytoplankton Blooms
N2  - We analyse a generic bottom-up nutrient phytoplankton model to help understand the dynamics of seasonally recurring algae blooms. The deterministic model displays a wide spectrum of dynamical behaviours, from simple cyclical blooms which trigger annually, to irregular chaotic blooms in which both the time between outbreaks and their magnitudes are erratic. Unusually, despite the persistent seasonal forcing, it is extremely difficult to generate blooms that are both annually recurring and also chaotic or irregular (i.e. in amplitude) even though this characterizes many real time series. Instead the model has a tendency to `skip' with outbreaks often being suppressed from one year to the next. This behaviour is studied in detail and we develop an analytical expression to describe the model's flow in phase space, yielding insights into the mechanism of the bloom recurrence. We also discuss how modifications to the equations through the inclusion of appropriate functional forms can generate more realistic dynamics.
Y1  - 2005
UR  - http://www.agnld.uni-potsdam.de/~bernd/papers/jtb2.pdf
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Huppert, Amit
A1  - Blasius, Bernd
A1  - Stone, Lewi
T1  - What minimal models can tell : a reply to van Nes and Scheffer
Y1  - 2004
ER  -