TY - JOUR A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Feulner, Georg T1 - Reply to comment on 'On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming' JF - Environmental research letters N2 - In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: first, C&T claim that our analysis is based on 'established evidence' that was only true for preindustrial conditions-this is not the case. Using data from the modern period (1947-2012), we show that the established understanding (i.e. deep-water formation in the North Atlantic cools the deep ocean and warms the surface) is correct, but our analysis is not based on this fact. Secondly, C&T claim that our results are based on a statistical analysis of only one cycle of data which was furthermore incorrectly detrended. This, too, is not true. Our conclusion that a weaker AMOC delays the current surface warming rather than enhances it, is based on several independent lines of evidence. The data we show to support this covers more than one cycle and the detrending (which was performed to avoid spurious correlations due to a common trend) does not affect our conclusion: the correlation between AMOC strength and GMST is positive. We do not claim that this is strong evidence that the two time series are in phase, but rather that this means that the two time series are not anti-correlated. KW - Atlantic meridional overturning circulation KW - global surface warming KW - ocean heat uptake Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 3 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fürst, Johannes J. A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - A minimal model for wind- and mixing-driven overturning threshold behavior for both driving mechanisms JF - Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system N2 - We present a minimal conceptual model for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation which incorporates the advection of salinity and the basic dynamics of the oceanic pycnocline. Four tracer transport processes following Gnanadesikan in Science 283(5410):2077-2079, (1999) allow for a dynamical adjustment of the oceanic pycnocline which defines the vertical extent of a mid-latitudinal box. At the same time the model captures the salt-advection feedback (Stommel in Tellus 13(2):224-230, (1961)). Due to its simplicity the model can be solved analytically in the purely wind- and purely mixing-driven cases. We find the possibility of abrupt transition in response to surface freshwater forcing in both cases even though the circulations are very different in physics and geometry. This analytical approach also provides expressions for the critical freshwater input marking the change in the dynamics of the system. Our analysis shows that including the pycnocline dynamics in a salt-advection model causes a decrease in the freshwater sensitivity of its northern sinking up to a threshold at which the circulation breaks down. Compared to previous studies the model is restricted to the essential ingredients. Still, it exhibits a rich behavior which reaches beyond the scope of this study and might be used as a paradigm for the qualitative behaviour of the Atlantic overturning in the discussion of driving mechanisms. KW - Meridional overturning circulation KW - Northern sinking KW - Critical freshwater threshold KW - Overturning sensitivity KW - Conceptual model KW - Stability KW - Atlantic meridional overturning circulation KW - Pycnocline depth KW - Driving mechanism Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1003-7 SN - 0930-7575 VL - 38 IS - 1-2 SP - 239 EP - 260 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - GEN A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Feulner, Georg T1 - On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - According to established understanding, deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean keeps the deep ocean cold, counter-acting the downward mixing of heat from the warmer surface waters in the bulk of the world ocean. Therefore, periods of strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to coincide with cooling of the deep ocean and warming of the surface waters. It has recently been proposed that this relation may have reversed due to global warming, and that during the past decades a strong AMOC coincides with warming of the deep ocean and relative cooling of the surface, by transporting increasingly warmer waters downward. Here we present multiple lines of evidence, including a statistical evaluation of the observed global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and different AMOC proxies, that lead to the opposite conclusion: even during the current ongoing global temperature rise a strong AMOC warms the surface. The observed weakening of the AMOC has therefore delayed global surface warming rather than enhancing it. Social Media Abstract: The overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean has weakened in response to global warming, as predicted by climate models. Since it plays an important role in transporting heat, nutrients and carbon, a slowdown will affect global climate processes and the global mean temperature. Scientists have questioned whether this slowdown has worked to cool or warm global surface temperatures. This study analyses the overturning strength and global mean temperature evolution of the past decades and shows that a slowdown acts to reduce the global mean temperature. This is because a slower overturning means less water sinks into the deep ocean in the subpolar North Atlantic. As the surface waters are cold there, the sinking normally cools the deep ocean and thereby indirectly warms the surface, thus less sinking implies less surface warming and has a cooling effect. For the foreseeable future, this means that the slowing of the overturning will likely continue to slightly reduce the effect of the general warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1426 KW - Atlantic meridional overturning circulation KW - global surface warming KW - ocean heat uptake Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-512382 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Feulner, Georg T1 - On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming JF - Environmental research letters N2 - According to established understanding, deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean keeps the deep ocean cold, counter-acting the downward mixing of heat from the warmer surface waters in the bulk of the world ocean. Therefore, periods of strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to coincide with cooling of the deep ocean and warming of the surface waters. It has recently been proposed that this relation may have reversed due to global warming, and that during the past decades a strong AMOC coincides with warming of the deep ocean and relative cooling of the surface, by transporting increasingly warmer waters downward. Here we present multiple lines of evidence, including a statistical evaluation of the observed global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and different AMOC proxies, that lead to the opposite conclusion: even during the current ongoing global temperature rise a strong AMOC warms the surface. The observed weakening of the AMOC has therefore delayed global surface warming rather than enhancing it. Social Media Abstract: The overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean has weakened in response to global warming, as predicted by climate models. Since it plays an important role in transporting heat, nutrients and carbon, a slowdown will affect global climate processes and the global mean temperature. Scientists have questioned whether this slowdown has worked to cool or warm global surface temperatures. This study analyses the overturning strength and global mean temperature evolution of the past decades and shows that a slowdown acts to reduce the global mean temperature. This is because a slower overturning means less water sinks into the deep ocean in the subpolar North Atlantic. As the surface waters are cold there, the sinking normally cools the deep ocean and thereby indirectly warms the surface, thus less sinking implies less surface warming and has a cooling effect. For the foreseeable future, this means that the slowing of the overturning will likely continue to slightly reduce the effect of the general warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. KW - Atlantic meridional overturning circulation KW - global surface warming KW - ocean heat uptake Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab63e3 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 15 IS - 2 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER -