TY  - JOUR
A1  - Seroussi, Helene
A1  - Nowicki, Sophie
A1  - Simon, Erika
A1  - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Brondex, Julien
A1  - Cornford, Stephen
A1  - Dumas, Christophe
A1  - Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien
A1  - Goelzer, Heiko
A1  - Golledge, Nicholas R.
A1  - Gregory, Jonathan M.
A1  - Greve, Ralf
A1  - Hoffman, Matthew J.
A1  - Humbert, Angelika
A1  - Huybrechts, Philippe
A1  - Kleiner, Thomas
A1  - Larourl, Eric
A1  - Leguy, Gunter
A1  - Lipscomb, William H.
A1  - Lowry, Daniel
A1  - Mengel, Matthias
A1  - Morlighem, Mathieu
A1  - Pattyn, Frank
A1  - Payne, Anthony J.
A1  - Pollard, David
A1  - Price, Stephen F.
A1  - Quiquet, Aurelien
A1  - Reerink, Thomas J.
A1  - Reese, Ronja
A1  - Rodehacke, Christian B.
A1  - Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne
A1  - Shepherd, Andrew
A1  - Sun, Sainan
A1  - Sutter, Johannes
A1  - Van Breedam, Jonas
A1  - van de Wal, Roderik S. W.
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Zhang, Tong
T1  - initMIP-Antarctica
BT  - an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMlP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMlP-Greenland, initMlP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMlP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 13
IS  - 5
SP  - 1441
EP  - 1471
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ciemer, Catrin
A1  - Boers, Niklas
A1  - Hirota, Marina
A1  - Kurths, Jürgen
A1  - Müller-Hansen, Finn
A1  - Oliveira, Rafael S.
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
T1  - Higher resilience to climatic disturbances in tropical vegetation exposed to more variable rainfall
JF  - Nature geoscience
N2  - With ongoing global warming, the amount and frequency of precipitation in the tropics is projected to change substantially. While it has been shown that tropical forests and savannahs are sustained within the same intermediate mean annual precipitation range, the mechanisms that lead to the resilience of these ecosystems are still not fully understood. In particular, the long-term impact of rainfall variability on resilience is as yet unclear. Here we present observational evidence that both tropical forest and savannah exposed to a higher rainfall variability-in particular on interannual scales-during their long-term past are overall more resilient against climatic disturbances. Based on precipitation and tree cover data in the Brazilian Amazon basin, we constructed potential landscapes that enable us to systematically measure the resilience of the different ecosystems. Additionally, we infer that shifts from forest to savannah due to decreasing precipitation in the future are more likely to occur in regions with a precursory lower rainfall variability. Long-term rainfall variability thus needs to be taken into account in resilience analyses and projections of vegetation response to climate change.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0312-z
SN  - 1752-0894
SN  - 1752-0908
VL  - 12
IS  - 3
SP  - 174
EP  - 179
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - New York
ER  -