TY - JOUR A1 - Castillo, Angelica M. A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Ganushkina, Natalia A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Wang, Dedong A1 - Dubyagin, Stepan T1 - Simulations of the inner magnetospheric energetic electrons using the IMPTAM-VERB coupled model JF - Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics N2 - In this study, we present initial results of the coupling between the Inner Magnetospheric Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) and the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB-3D) code. IMPTAM traces electrons of 10-100 keV energies from the plasma sheet (L = 9 Re) to inner L-shell regions. The flux evolution modeled by IMPTAM is used at the low energy and outer L* computational boundaries of the VERB code (assuming a dipole approximation) to perform radiation belt simulations of energetic electrons. The model was tested on the March 17th, 2013 storm, for a six-day period. Four different simulations were performed and their results compared to satellites observations from Van Allen probes and GOES. The coupled IMPTAM-VERB model reproduces evolution and storm-time features of electron fluxes throughout the studied storm in agreement with the satellite data (within similar to 0.5 orders of magnitude). Including dynamics of the low energy population at L* = 6.6 increases fluxes closer to the heart of the belt and has a strong impact in the VERB simulations at all energies. However, inclusion of magnetopause losses leads to drastic flux decreases even below L* = 3. The dynamics of low energy electrons (max. 10s of keV) do not affect electron fluxes at energies >= 900 keV. Since the IMPTAM-VERB coupled model is only driven by solar wind parameters and the Dst and Kp indexes, it is suitable as a forecasting tool. In this study, we demonstrate that the estimation of electron dynamics with satellite-data-independent models is possible and very accurate. KW - Electron populations KW - Radiation belts KW - IMPTAM KW - VERB Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2019.05.014 SN - 1364-6826 SN - 1879-1824 VL - 191 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Woodfield, Emma E. A1 - Glauert, Saraha A. A1 - Menietti, J. Douglas A1 - Averkamp, Terrance F. A1 - Horne, Richard B. A1 - Shprits, Yuri T1 - Rapid Electron Acceleration in Low‐Density Regions of Saturn's Radiation Belt by Whistler Mode Chorus Waves JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Electron acceleration at Saturn due to whistler mode chorus waves has previously been assumed to be ineffective; new data closer to the planet show it can be very rapid (factor of 104 flux increase at 1 MeV in 10 days compared to factor of 2). A full survey of chorus waves at Saturn is combined with an improved plasma density model to show that where the plasma frequency falls below the gyrofrequency additional strong resonances are observed favoring electron acceleration. This results in strong chorus acceleration between approximately 2.5 R-S and 5.5 R-S outside which adiabatic transport may dominate. Strong pitch angle dependence results in butterfly pitch angle distributions that flatten over a few days at 100s keV, tens of days at MeV energies which may explain observations of butterfly distributions of MeV electrons near L = 3. Including cross terms in the simulations increases the tendency toward butterfly distributions. Plain Language Summary Radiation belts are hazardous regions found around several of the planets in our Solar System. They consist of very hot, electrically charged particles trapped in the magnetic field of the planet. At Saturn the most important way to heat these particles has for many years been thought to involve the particles drifting closer toward the planet. This paper adds to the emerging idea at Saturn that a different way to heat the particles is also possible where the heating is done by waves, in a similar way to what we find at the Earth. We use recent information from the Cassini spacecraft on the number and location of particles and also of the waves strength and location combined with computer simulations to show that a particular wave called chorus is excellent at heating the particles where the surrounding number of cold particles is low. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083071 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 46 IS - 13 SP - 7191 EP - 7198 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Denton, Richard E. A1 - Ofman, L. A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Bortnik, J. A1 - Millan, R. M. A1 - Rodger, C. J. A1 - da Silva, C. L. A1 - Rogers, B. N. A1 - Hudson, M. K. A1 - Liu, K. A1 - Min, K. A1 - Glocer, A. A1 - Komar, C. T1 - Pitch Angle Scattering of Sub-MeV Relativistic Electrons by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves have long been considered to be a significant loss mechanism for relativistic electrons. This has most often been attributed to resonant interactions with the highest amplitude waves. But recent observations have suggested that the dominant energy of electrons precipitated to the atmosphere may often be relatively low, less than 1 MeV, whereas the minimum resonant energy of the highest amplitude waves is often greater than 2 MeV. Here we use relativistic electron test particle simulations in the wavefields of a hybrid code simulation of EMIC waves in dipole geometry in order to show that significant pitch angle scattering can occur due to interaction with low-amplitude short-wavelength EMIC waves. In the case we examined, these waves are in the H band (at frequencies above the He+ gyrofrequency), even though the highest amplitude waves were in the He band frequency range (below the He+ gyrofrequency). We also present wave power distributions for 29 EMIC simulations in straight magnetic field line geometry that show that the high wave number portion of the spectrum is in every case mostly due to the H band waves. Though He band waves are often associated with relativistic electron precipitation, it is possible that the He band waves do not directly scatter the sub-megaelectron volts (sub-MeV) electrons, but that the presence of He band waves is associated with high plasma density which lowers the minimum resonant energy so that these electrons can more easily resonate with the H band waves. KW - electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves KW - EMIC KW - relativistic electron precipitation KW - pitch angle scattering KW - wave particle interaction KW - radiation belts Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JA026384 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 124 IS - 7 SP - 5610 EP - 5626 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Qin, Murong A1 - Hudson, Mary A1 - Li, Zhao A1 - Millan, Robyn A1 - Shen, Xiaochen A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Woodger, Leslie A1 - Jaynes, Allison A1 - Kletzing, Craig T1 - Investigating loss of relativistic electrons associated with EMIC Waves at low L values on 22 June 2015 JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - In this study, rapid loss of relativistic radiation belt electrons at low L* values (2.4-3.2) during a strong geomagnetic storm on 22 June 2015 is investigated along with five possible loss mechanisms. Both the particle and wave data are obtained from the Van Allen Probes. Duskside H+ band electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves were observed during a rapid decrease of relativistic electrons with energy above 5.2 MeV occurring outside the plasma sphere during extreme magnetopause compression. Lower He+ composition and enriched O+ composition are found compared to typical values assumed in other studies of cyclotron resonant scattering of relativistic electrons by EMIC waves. Quantitative analysis demonstrates that even with the existence of He+ band EMIC waves, it is the H+ band EMIC waves that are likely to cause the depletion at small pitch angles and strong gradients in pitch angle distributions of relativistic electrons with energy above 5.2 MeV at low L values for this event. Very low frequency wave activity at other magnetic local time can be favorable for the loss of relativistic electrons at higher pitch angles. An illustrative calculation that combines the nominal pitch angle scattering rate due to whistler mode chorus at high pitch angles with the H+ band EMIC wave loss rate at low pitch angles produces loss on time scale observed at L = 2.4-3.2. At high L values and lower energies, radial loss to the magnetopause is a viable explanation. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JA025726 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 124 IS - 6 SP - 4022 EP - 4036 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Vasile, Ruggero A1 - Zhelayskaya, Irina S. T1 - Nowcasting and Predicting the Kp Index Using Historical Values and Real-Time Observations JF - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - Current algorithms for the real-time prediction of the Kp index use a combination of models empirically driven by solar wind measurements at the L1 Lagrange point and historical values of the index. In this study, we explore the limitations of this approach, examining the forecast for short and long lead times using measurements at L1 and Kp time series as input to artificial neural networks. We explore the relative efficiency of the solar wind-based predictions, predictions based on recurrence, and predictions based on persistence. Our modeling results show that for short-term forecasts of approximately half a day, the addition of the historical values of Kp to the measured solar wind values provides a barely noticeable improvement. For a longer-term forecast of more than 2 days, predictions can be made using recurrence only, while solar wind measurements provide very little improvement for a forecast with long horizon times. We also examine predictions for disturbed and quiet geomagnetic activity conditions. Our results show that the paucity of historical measurements of the solar wind for high Kp results in a lower accuracy of predictions during disturbed conditions. Rebalancing of input data can help tailor the predictions for more disturbed conditions. KW - Kp index KW - geomagnetic activity KW - empirical prediction KW - solar wind KW - forecast KW - AI Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002141 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 17 IS - 8 SP - 1219 EP - 1229 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wang, Dedong A1 - Shprits, Yuri T1 - On How High-Latitude Chorus Waves Tip the Balance Between Acceleration and Loss of Relativistic Electrons JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Modeling and observations have shown that energy diffusion by chorus waves is an important source of acceleration of electrons to relativistic energies. By performing long-term simulations using the three-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code, in this study, we test how the latitudinal dependence of chorus waves can affect the dynamics of the radiation belt electrons. Results show that the variability of chorus waves at high latitudes is critical for modeling of megaelectron volt (MeV) electrons. We show that, depending on the latitudinal distribution of chorus waves under different geomagnetic conditions, they cannot only produce a net acceleration but also a net loss of MeV electrons. Decrease in high-latitude chorus waves can tip the balance between acceleration and loss toward acceleration, or alternatively, the increase in high-latitude waves can result in a net loss of MeV electrons. Variations in high-latitude chorus may account for some of the variability of MeV electrons. KW - radiation belts KW - chorus waves KW - high latitude KW - acceleration KW - loss KW - modeling Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082681 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 46 IS - 14 SP - 7945 EP - 7954 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Kellerman, Adam C. T1 - Numerical applications of the advective-diffusive codes for the inner magnetosphere JF - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - In this study we present analytical solutions for convection and diffusion equations. We gather here the analytical solutions for the one-dimensional convection equation, the two-dimensional convection problem, and the one- and two-dimensional diffusion equations. Using obtained analytical solutions, we test the four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code (the VERB-4D code), which solves the modified Fokker-Planck equation with additional convection terms. The ninth-order upwind numerical scheme for the one-dimensional convection equation shows much more accurate results than the results obtained with the third-order scheme. The universal limiter eliminates unphysical oscillations generated by high-order linear upwind schemes. Decrease in the space step leads to convergence of a numerical solution of the two-dimensional diffusion equation with mixed terms to the analytical solution. We compare the results of the third- and ninth-order schemes applied to magnetospheric convection modeling. The results show significant differences in electron fluxes near geostationary orbit when different numerical schemes are used. KW - advective-diffusive codes KW - inner magnetosphere KW - numerical schemes Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001484 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 14 SP - 993 EP - 1010 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kim, Kyung-Chan A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Blake, J. Bernard T1 - Fast injection of the relativistic electrons into the inner zone and the formation of the split-zone structure during the Bastille Day storm in July 2000 JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - During the July 2000 geomagnetic storm, known as the Bastille Day storm, Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX)/Heavy Ion Large Telescope (HILT) observed a strong injection of similar to 1MeV electrons into the slot region (L similar to 2.5) during the storm main phase. Then, during the following month, electrons were clearly seen diffusing inward down to L=2 and forming a pronounced split structure encompassing a narrow, newly formed slot region around L=3. SAMPEX observations are first compared with electron and proton observations on HEO-3 and NOAA-15 to validate that the observed unusual dynamics was not caused by proton contamination of the SAMPEX instrument. The time-dependent 3-D Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) simulation of 1MeV electron flux evolution is compared with the SAMPEX/HILT observations. The results show that the VERB code predicts overall time evolution of the observed split structure. The simulated split structure is produced by pitch angle scattering into the Earth atmosphere of similar to 1MeV electrons by plasmaspheric hiss. KW - inner radiation zone and slot region KW - Bastille Day geomagnetic storm KW - 3-D diffusion simulation KW - plasmaspheric hiss Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA022072 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 121 SP - 8329 EP - 8342 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Spasojevic, Maria A1 - Kellerman, Adam C. A1 - Usanova, Maria E. A1 - Engebretson, Mark J. A1 - Agapitov, Oleksiy V. A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina A1 - Raita, Tero J. A1 - Spence, Harlan E. A1 - Baker, Daniel N. A1 - Zhu, Hui A1 - Aseev, Nikita T1 - Wave-induced loss of ultra-relativistic electrons in the Van Allen radiation belts JF - Nature Communications Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12883 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 7 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wang, Dedong A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Zhelayskaya, Irina S. A1 - Agapitov, Oleksiy A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Aseev, Nikita T1 - Analytical chorus wave model derived from van Allen Probe Observations JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - Chorus waves play an important role in the dynamic evolution of energetic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts and ring current. Using more than 5 years of Van Allen Probe data, we developed a new analytical model for upper‐band chorus (UBC; 0.5fce < f < fce) and lower‐band chorus (LBC; 0.05fce < f < 0.5fce) waves, where fce is the equatorial electron gyrofrequency. By applying polynomial fits to chorus wave root mean square amplitudes, we developed regression models for LBC and UBC as a function of geomagnetic activity (Kp), L, magnetic latitude (λ), and magnetic local time (MLT). Dependence on Kp is separated from the dependence on λ, L, and MLT as Kp‐scaling law to simplify the calculation of diffusion coefficients and inclusion into particle tracing codes. Frequency models for UBC and LBC are also developed, which depends on MLT and magnetic latitude. This empirical model is valid in all MLTs, magnetic latitude up to 20°, Kp ≤ 6, L‐shell range from 3.5 to 6 for LBC and from 4 to 6 for UBC. The dependence of root mean square amplitudes on L are different for different bands, which implies different energy sources for different wave bands. This analytical chorus wave model is convenient for inclusion in quasi‐linear diffusion calculations of electron scattering rates and particle simulations in the inner magnetosphere, especially for the newly developed four‐dimensional codes, which require significantly improved wave parameterizations. KW - chorus waves KW - radiation belt electrons KW - ring current electrons KW - analytical model KW - wave-particle interactions KW - diffusion coefficients Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JA026183 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 124 IS - 2 SP - 1063 EP - 1084 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri T1 - Reanalysis of ring current electron phase space densities using van allen probe observations, convection model, and log‐normal kalman filter JF - Space weather : the international journal of research and applications N2 - Models of ring current electron dynamics unavoidably contain uncertainties in boundary conditions, electric and magnetic fields, electron scattering rates, and plasmapause location. Model errors can accumulate with time and result in significant deviations of model predictions from observations. Data assimilation offers useful tools which can combine physics-based models and measurements to improve model predictions. In this study, we systematically analyze performance of the Kalman filter applied to a log-transformed convection model of ring current electrons and Van Allen Probe data. We consider long-term dynamics of mu = 2.3 MeV/G and K = 0.3 G(1/2) R-E electrons from 1 February 2013 to 16 June 2013. By using synthetic data, we show that the Kalman filter is capable of correcting errors in model predictions associated with uncertainties in electron lifetimes, boundary conditions, and convection electric fields. We demonstrate that reanalysis retains features which cannot be fully reproduced by the convection model such as storm-time earthward propagation of the electrons down to 2.5 R-E. The Kalman filter can adjust model predictions to satellite measurements even in regions where data are not available. We show that the Kalman filter can adjust model predictions in accordance with observations for mu = 0.1, 2.3, and 9.9 MeV/G and constant K = 0.3 G(1/2) R-E electrons. The results of this study demonstrate that data assimilation can improve performance of ring current models, better quantify model uncertainties, and help deeper understand the physics of the ring current particles. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002110 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 17 IS - 4 SP - 619 EP - 638 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Smirnov, Artem G. A1 - Kronberg, Elena A. A1 - Latallerie, F. A1 - Daly, Patrick W. A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Kellerman, Adam C. A1 - Kasahara, Satoshi A1 - Turner, Drew L. A1 - Taylor, M. G. G. T. T1 - Electron Intensity Measurements by the Cluster/RAPID/IES Instrument in Earth's Radiation Belts and Ring Current JF - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - Plain Language Summary Radiation belts of the Earth, which are the zones of charged energetic particles trapped by the geomagnetic field, comprise enormous and dynamic systems. While the inner radiation belt, composed mainly of high-energy protons, is relatively stable, the outer belt, filled with energetic electrons, is highly variable and depends substantially on solar activity. Hence, extended reliable observations and the improved models of the electron intensities in the outer belt depending on solar wind parameters are necessary for prediction of their dynamics. The Cluster mission has been measuring electron flux intensities in the radiation belts since its launch in 2000, thus providing a huge dataset that can be used for radiation belts analysis. Using 16 years of electron measurements by the Cluster mission corrected for background contamination, we derived a uniform linear-logarithmic dependence of electron fluxes in the outer belt on the solar wind dynamic pressure. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001989 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 17 IS - 4 SP - 553 EP - 566 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dobynde, M. I. A1 - Effenberger, Frederic A1 - Kartashov, D. A. A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Shurshakov, V. A. T1 - Ray-tracing simulation of the radiation dose distribution on the surface of the spherical phantom of the MATROSHKA-R experiment onboard the ISS JF - Life sciences in space research N2 - Space radiation is one of the main concerns for human space flights. The prediction of the radiation dose for the actual spacecraft geometry is very important for the planning of long-duration missions. We present a numerical method for the fast calculation of the radiation dose rate during a space flight. We demonstrate its application for dose calculations during the first and the second sessions of the MATROSHKA-R space experiment with a spherical tissue-equivalent phantom. The main advantage of the method is the short simulation time, so it can be applied for urgent radiation dose calculations for low-Earth orbit space missions. The method uses depth-dose curve and shield-and-composition distribution functions to calculate a radiation dose at the point of interest. The spacecraft geometry is processed into a shield-and-composition distribution function using a ray-tracing method. Depth-dose curves are calculated using the GEANT4 Monte-Carlo code (version 10.00.P02) for a double-layer aluminum-water shielding. Aluminum-water shielding is a good approximation of the real geometry, as water is a good equivalent for biological tissues, and aluminum is the major material of spacecraft bodies. KW - Space radiation KW - Radiation protection KW - Radiation dose calculation KW - GEANT4 modeling KW - Radiation on the ISS KW - MATROSHKA-R Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lssr.2019.04.001 SN - 2214-5524 SN - 2214-5532 VL - 21 SP - 65 EP - 72 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Smirnov, Artem G. A1 - Kronberg, Elena A. A1 - Daly, Patrick W. A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Kellerman, Adam C. T1 - Adiabatic Invariants Calculations for Cluster Mission: A Long-Term Product for Radiation Belts Studies T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Cluster mission has produced a large data set of electron flux measurements in the Earth's magnetosphere since its launch in late 2000. Electron fluxes are measured using Research with Adaptive Particle Imaging Detector (RAPID)/Imaging Electron Spectrometer (IES) detector as a function of energy, pitch angle, spacecraft position, and time. However, no adiabatic invariants have been calculated for Cluster so far. In this paper we present a step-by-step guide to calculations of adiabatic invariants and conversion of the electron flux to phase space density (PSD) in these coordinates. The electron flux is measured in two RAPID/IES energy channels providing pitch angle distribution at energies 39.2-50.5 and 68.1-94.5 keV in nominal mode since 2004. A fitting method allows to expand the conversion of the differential fluxes to the range from 40 to 150 keV. Best data coverage for phase space density in adiabatic invariant coordinates can be obtained for values of second adiabatic invariant, K, similar to 10(2), and values of the first adiabatic invariant mu in the range approximate to 5-20 MeV/G. Furthermore, we describe the production of a new data product "LSTAR," equivalent to the third adiabatic invariant, available through the Cluster Science Archive for years 2001-2018 with 1-min resolution. The produced data set adds to the availability of observations in Earth's radiation belts region and can be used for long-term statistical purposes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1192 KW - L-Asterisk KW - magnetosphere KW - electrons KW - model Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-523915 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Menietti, J. D. A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Horne, Richard B. A1 - Woodfield, Emma E. A1 - Groene, J. B. A1 - de Soria-Santacruz, M. A1 - Averkamp, T. F. A1 - Garrett, H. A1 - Paranicas, C. A1 - Gurnett, Don A. T1 - Strong whistler mode waves observed in the vicinity of Jupiter’s moons JF - Nature Communications N2 - Understanding of wave environments is critical for the understanding of how particles are accelerated and lost in space. This study shows that in the vicinity of Europa and Ganymede, that respectively have induced and internal magnetic fields, chorus wave power is significantly increased. The observed enhancements are persistent and exceed median values of wave activity by up to 6 orders of magnitude for Ganymede. Produced waves may have a pronounced effect on the acceleration and loss of particles in the Jovian magnetosphere and other astrophysical objects. The generated waves are capable of significantly modifying the energetic particle environment, accelerating particles to very high energies, or producing depletions in phase space density. Observations of Jupiter’s magnetosphere provide a unique opportunity to observe how objects with an internal magnetic field can interact with particles trapped in magnetic fields of larger scale objects. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05431-x SN - 2041-1723 VL - 9 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Angelopoulos, V. A1 - Russell, C. T. A1 - Strangeway, R. J. A1 - Runov, A. A1 - Turner, D. A1 - Caron, R. A1 - Cruce, P. A1 - Leneman, D. A1 - Michaelis, I. A1 - Petrov, V. A1 - Panasyuk, M. A1 - Yashin, I. A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Russell, C. L. A1 - Kalegaev, V. A1 - Nazarkov, I. A1 - Clemmons, J. H. T1 - Scientific Objectives of Electron Losses and Fields INvestigation Onboard Lomonosov Satellite JF - Space science reviews N2 - The objective of the Electron Losses and Fields INvestigation on board the Lomonosov satellite ( ELFIN-L) project is to determine the energy spectrum of precipitating energetic electrons and ions and, together with other polar-orbiting and equatorial missions, to better understand the mechanisms responsible for scattering these particles into the atmosphere. This mission will provide detailed measurements of the radiation environment at low altitudes. The 400-500 km sun-synchronous orbit of Lomonosov is ideal for observing electrons and ions precipitating into the atmosphere. This mission provides a unique opportunity to test the instruments. Similar suite of instruments will be flown in the future NSF-and NASA-supported spinning CubeSat ELFIN satellites which will augment current measurements by providing detailed information on pitch-angle distributions of precipitating and trapped particles. KW - Magnetospheric physics KW - Observations KW - Particles precipitating KW - Particles trapped KW - Radiation belts Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-017-0455-4 SN - 0038-6308 SN - 1572-9672 VL - 214 IS - 1 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - GEN A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina A1 - Green, Janet C. A1 - Pulkkinen, Antti A. A1 - Horne, Richard B. A1 - Pitchford, David A1 - Glover, Alexi T1 - Discussions on Stakeholder Requirements for Space Weather-Related Models T2 - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - Participants of the 2017 European Space Weather Week in Ostend, Belgium, discussed the stakeholder requirements for space weather-related models. It was emphasized that stakeholders show an increased interest in space weather-related models. Participants of the meeting discussed particular prediction indicators that can provide first-order estimates of the impact of space weather on engineering systems. KW - 7924 KW - 7934 KW - 7959 Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2018SW001864 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 16 IS - 4 SP - 341 EP - 342 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - GEN A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Horne, Richard B. A1 - Kellerman, Adam C. A1 - Drozdov, Alexander T1 - The dynamics of Van Allen belts revisited T2 - Nature physics N2 - In an effort to explain the formation of a narrow third radiation belt at ultra-relativistic energies detected during a solar storm in September 20121, Mann et al.2 present simulations from which they conclude it arises from a process of outward radial diffusion alone, without the need for additional loss processes from higher frequency waves. The comparison of observations with the model in Figs 2 and 3 of their Article clearly shows that even with strong radial diffusion rates, the model predicts a third belt near L* = 3 that is twice as wide as observed and approximately an order of magnitude more intense. We therefore disagree with their interpretation that “the agreement between the absolute fluxes from the model and those observed by REPT [the Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope] shown on Figs 2 and 3 is excellent.” Previous studies3 have shown that outward radial diffusion plays a very important role in the dynamics of the outer belt and is capable of explaining rapid reductions in the electron flux. It has also been shown that it can produce remnant belts (Fig. 2 of a long-term simulation study4). However, radial diffusion alone cannot explain the formation of the narrow third belt at multi-MeV during September 2012. An additional loss mechanism is required. Higher radial diffusion rates cannot improve the comparison of model presented by Mann et al. with observations. A further increase in the radial diffusion rates (reported in Fig. 4 of the Supplementary Information of ref. 2) results in the overestimation of the outer belt fluxes by up to three orders of magnitude at energy of 3.4 MeV. Observations at 2 MeV, where belts show only a two-zone structure, were not presented by Mann et al. Moreover, simulations of electrons with energies below 2 MeV with the same diffusion rates and boundary conditions used by the authors would probably produce very strong depletions down to L = 3–3.5, where L is radial distance from the centre of the Earth to the given field line in the equatorial plane. Observations do not show a non-adiabatic loss below L ∼ 4.5 for 2 MeV. Such different dynamics between 2 MeV and above 4 MeV at around L = 3.5 are another indication that particles are scattered by electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves that affect only energies above a certain threshold. Observations of the phase space density (PSD) provide additional evidence for the local loss of electrons. Around L* = 3.5–4 PSD shows significant decrease by an order of magnitude starting in the afternoon of 3 September (Fig. 1a), while PSD above L* = 4 is increasing. The minimum in PSD between L* = 3.5–4 continues to decrease until 4 September. This evolution demonstrates that the loss is not produced by outward diffusion. Radial diffusion cannot produce deepening minima, as it works to smooth gradients. Just as growing peaks in PSD show the presence of localized acceleration5, deepening minima show the presence of localized loss. Figure 1: Time evolution of radiation profiles in electron PSD at relativistic and ultra-relativistic energies. figure 1 a, Similar to Supplementary Fig. 3 of ref. 2, but using TS07D model10 and for μ = 2,500 MeV G−1, K = 0.05 RE G0.5 (where RE is the radius of the Earth). b, Similar to Supplementary Fig. 3 of ref. 2, but using TS07D model and for μ = 700 MeV G−1, corresponding to MeV energies in the heart of the belt. Minimum in PSD in the heart of the multi-MeV electron radiation belt between 3.5 and 4 RE deepening between the afternoon of 3 September and 5 September clearly show that the narrow remnant belt at multi-MeV below 3.5 RE is produced by the local loss. Full size image The minimum in the outer boundary is reached on the evening of 2 September. After that, the outer boundary moves up, while the minimum decreases by approximately an order of magnitude, clearly showing that this main decrease cannot be explained by outward diffusion, and requires additional loss processes. The analysis of profiles of PSD is a standard tool used, for example, in the study about electron acceleration5 and routinely used by the entire Van Allen Probes team. In the Supplementary Information, we show that this analysis is validated by using different magnetic field models. The Supplementary Information also shows that measurements are above background noise. Deepening minima at multi-MeV during the times when the boundary flux increases are clearly seen in Fig. 1a. They show that there must be localized loss, as radial diffusion cannot produce a minimum that becomes lower with time. At lower energies of 1–2 MeV, which corresponds to lower values of the first adiabatic invariant μ (Fig. 1b), the profiles are monotonic between L* = 3–3.5, consistent with the absence of scattering by EMIC waves that affect only electrons above a certain energy threshold6,7,8,9. In summary, the results of the modelling and observations presented by Mann et al. do not lend support to the claim of explaining the dynamics of the ultra-relativistic third Van Allen radiation belt in terms of an outward radial diffusion process alone. While the outward radial diffusion driven by the loss to the magnetopause2 is certainly operating during this storm, there is compelling observational and modelling2,6 evidence that shows that very efficient localized electron loss operates during this storm at multi-MeV energies, consistent with localized loss produced by EMIC waves. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/nphys4350 SN - 1745-2473 SN - 1745-2481 VL - 14 IS - 2 SP - 102 EP - 103 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cervantes Villa, Juan Sebastian A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Allison, Hayley J. T1 - Quantifying the effects of EMIC wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing in the outer electron radiation belt by means of data assimilation JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - In this study we investigate two distinct loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons by assimilating data from Van Allen Probes A and B and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13 and 15 into a 3-D diffusion model. In particular, we examine the respective contribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing for values of the first adiabatic invariant mu ranging from 300 to 3,000 MeV G(-1). We inspect the innovation vector and perform a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the effect of both processes as a function of various geomagnetic indices, solar wind parameters, and radial distance from the Earth. Our results are in agreement with previous studies that demonstrated the energy dependence of these two mechanisms. We show that EMIC wave scattering tends to dominate loss at lower L shells, and it may amount to between 10%/hr and 30%/hr of the maximum value of phase space density (PSD) over all L shells for fixed first and second adiabatic invariants. On the other hand, magnetopause shadowing is found to deplete electrons across all energies, mostly at higher L shells, resulting in loss from 50%/hr to 70%/hr of the maximum PSD. Nevertheless, during times of enhanced geomagnetic activity, both processes can operate beyond such location and encompass the entire outer radiation belt. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028208 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 125 IS - 8 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kim, Kyung-Chan A1 - Shprits, Yuri T1 - Survey of the Favorable Conditions for Magnetosonic Wave Excitation JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - The ratio of the proton ring velocity (VR) to the local Alfven speed (VA), in addition to proton ring distributions, plays a key factor in the excitation of magnetosonic waves at frequencies between the proton cyclotron frequency fcp and the lower hybrid resonance frequency fLHR in the Earth's magnetosphere. Here we investigate whether there is a statistically significant relationship between occurrences of proton rings and magnetosonic waves both outside and inside the plasmapause using particle and wave data from Van Allen Probe-A during the time period of October 2012 to December 2015. We also perform a statistical survey of the ratio of the ring energy (ER, corresponding to VR) to the Alfven energy (EA, corresponding to VA) to determine the favorable conditions under which magnetosonic waves in each of two frequency bands (fcp < f ≤ 0.5 fLHR and 0.5 fLHR < f < fLHR) can be excited. The results show that the magnetosonic waves in both frequency bands occur around the postnoon (12–18 magnetic local time, MLT) sector outside the plasmapause when ER is comparable to or lower than EA, and those in lower-frequency bands (fcp < f ≤ 0.5 fLHR) occur around the postnoon sector inside the plasmapause when ER/EA > ~9. However, there is one discrepancy between occurrences of proton rings and magnetosonic waves in low-frequency bands around the prenoon sector (6–12 MLT) outside the plasmapause, which suggests either that the waves may have propagated during active time from the postnoon sector after being excited during quiet time, or they may have locally excited in the prenoon sector during active time. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024865 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 123 IS - 1 SP - 400 EP - 413 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Kellerman, Adam C . A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Michaelis, Ingo T1 - Multi-MeV electron loss in the heart of the radiation belts JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Significant progress has been made in recent years in understanding acceleration mechanisms in the Earth's radiation belts. In particular, a number of studies demonstrated the importance of the local acceleration by analyzing the radial profiles of phase space density (PSD) and observing building up peaks in PSD. In this study, we focus on understanding of the local loss using very similar tools. The profiles of PSD for various values of the first adiabatic invariants during the previously studied 17 January 2013 storm are presented and discussed. The profiles of PSD show clear deepening minimums consistent with the scattering by electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. Long-term evolution shows that local minimums in PSD can persist for relatively long times. During considered interval of time the deepening minimums were observed around L* = 4 during 17 January 2013 storm and around L* = 3.5 during 1 March 2013 storm. This study shows a new method that can help identify the location, magnitude, and time of the local loss and will help quantify local loss in the future. This study also provides additional clear and definitive evidence that local loss plays a major role for the dynamics of the multi-MeV electrons. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072258 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 44 IS - 3 SP - 1204 EP - 1209 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - THES A1 - Maiti, Snehanshu T1 - Magnetohydrodynamic turbulence and cosmic ray transport T1 - Magnetohydrodynamische Turbulenz und Transport kosmischer Strahlung N2 - The first part of the thesis studies the properties of fast mode in magneto hydro-dynamic (MHD) turbulence. 1D and 3D numerical simulations are carried out to generate decaying fast mode MHD turbulence. The injection of waves are carried out in a collinear and isotropic fashion to generate fast mode turbulence. The properties of fast mode turbulence are analyzed by studying their energy spectral density, 2D structure functions and energy decay/cascade time. The injection wave vector is varied to study the dependence of the above properties on the injection wave vectors. The 1D energy spectrum obtained for the velocity and magnetic fields has 𝐸 (𝑘) ∝ 𝑘−2. The 2D energy spectrum and 2D structure functions in parallel and perpendicular directions shows that fast mode turbulence generated is isotropic in nature. The cascade/decay rate of fast mode MHD turbulence is proportional to 𝑘−0.5 for different kinds of wave vector injection. Simulations are also carried out in 1D and 3D to compare balanced and imbalanced turbulence. The results obtained shows that while 1D imbalanced turbulence decays faster than 1D balanced turbulence, there is no difference in the decay of 3D balanced and imbalanced turbulence for the current resolution of 512 grid points. "The second part of the thesis studies cosmic ray (CR) transport in driven MHD turbulence and is strongly dependent on it’s properties. Test particle simulations are carried out to study CR interaction with both total MHD turbulence and decomposed MHD modes. The spatial diffusion coefficients and the pitch angle scattering diffusion coefficients are calculated from the test particle trajectories in turbulence. The results confirms that the fast modes dominate the CR propagation, whereas Alfvén, slow modes are much less efficient with similar pitch angle scattering rates. The cross field transport on large and small scales are investigated next. On large/global scales, normal diffusion is observed and the diffusion coefficient is suppressed by 𝑀𝜁𝐴 compared to the parallel diffusion coefficients, with 𝜁 closer to 4 in Alfvén modes than that in total turbulence as theoretically expected. For the CR transport on scales smaller than the turbulence injection scale 𝐿, both the local and global magnetic reference frames are adopted. Super diffusion is observed on such small scales in all the cases. Particularly, CR transport in Alfvén modes show clear Richardson diffusion in the local reference frame. The diffusion transition smoothly from the Richardson’s one with index 1.5 to normal diffusion as particle’s mean free path decreases from 𝜆∥ ≫ 𝐿 to 𝜆∥ ≪ 𝐿. These results have broad applications to CRs in various astrophysical environments". N2 - Der erste Teil der Arbeit untersucht die Eigenschaften des schnellen Modus in magnetohydrodynamischen (MHD) Turbulenzen. Es werden numerische 1D- und 3D-Simulationen durchgeführt, um eine abklingende Fast-Mode-MHD-Turbulenz zu erzeugen. Die Injektion von Wellenvektoren wird kollinear und isotrop durchgeführt, um Fast-Mode-Turbulenzen zu erzeugen. Die Eigenschaften der Fast-Mode-Turbulenz werden durch die Untersuchung ihrer Energie-Spektraldichte, 2D-Strukturfunktionen und Energieabfall-/Kaskadenzeit analysiert. Die Injektionswellenvektoren werden in verschiedenen Simulationen für unterschiedliche Arten der Injektion variiert, um die Abhängigkeit der oben genannten Eigenschaften von den Injektionswellenvektoren zu untersuchen. Das für die Geschwindigkeits- und Magnetfelder erhaltene 1D-Energiespektrum hat E(k) ∝ k−2. Das 2D-Energiespektrum und die 2D-Strukturfunktionen in parallelen und senkrechten Richtungen zeigen, dass die erzeugte Fast-Mode-Turbulenz von Natur aus isotrop ist. Die Kaskaden-/Zerfallsrate der Fast-Mode-MHD-Turbulenz ist proportional zu k−0.5 für verschiedene Arten der Wellenvektorinjektion. Es werden auch Simulationen in 1D und 3D durchgeführt, um ausgeglichene und unausgeglichene Turbulenzen zu vergleichen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine unausgewogene 1D-Turbulenz schneller abklingt als eine ausgeglichene 1D-Turbulenz, während es bei der derzeitigen Auflösung von 512 Gitterpunkten keinen Unterschied im Abklingen von ausgeglichener und unausgewogener 3D-Turbulenz gibt. Der zweite Teil der Arbeit untersucht den Transport kosmischer Strahlung (CR) in angetriebenen MHD-Turbulenzen und ist stark von deren Eigenschaften abhängig. Es werden Testpartikelsimulationen durchgeführt, um die Wechselwirkung von kosmischer Strahlung sowohl mit der gesamten MHD-Turbulenz als auch mit zerlegten MHD-Moden zu untersuchen. Aus den Flugbahnen der Testteilchen in der Turbulenz werden die räumlichen Diffusionskoeffizienten und die Diffusionskoeffizienten für die Streuung im Neigungswinkel berechnet. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen, dass die schnellen Moden die CR-Ausbreitung dominieren, während Alfv´en langsame Moden bei ähnlichen Neigungswinkelstreuungsraten viel weniger effizient sind. Der Querfeldtransport auf großen und kleinen Skalen wird als nächstes untersucht. Auf großen/globalen Skalen wird normale Diffusion beobachtet und der Diffusionskoeffizient wird durch MζA im Vergleich zu den parallelen Diffusionskoeffizienten unterdrückt, wobei ζin Alfv´en-Moden näher bei 4 liegt als in der Gesamtturbulenz, wie theoretisch erwartet. Für den CR-Transport auf Skalen, die kleiner sind als die Turbulenzinjektionsskala L, werden sowohl der lokale als auch der globale magnetische Bezugsrahmen verwendet. Auf solch kleinen Skalen wird in allen Fällen Superdiffusion beobachtet. Insbesondere der CRTransport in Alfv’en-Moden zeigt eine deutliche Richardson-Diffusion im lokalen Bezugssystem. Die Diffusion geht fließend von der Richardson-Diffusion mit dem Index 1,5 zur normalen Diffusion über, wenn die mittlere freie Weglänge der Teilchen, λ∥, von λ∥ ≫ L auf λ∥ ≪ L abnimmt. Diese Ergebnisse haben eine breite Anwendung auf CRs in verschiedenen astrophysikalischen Umgebungen. KW - isotropic fast mode turbulence KW - cascade rate KW - Alfv´en mode MHD turbulence KW - cosmic ray diffusion KW - efficient scattering KW - mean free path KW - Richardson Superdiffusion KW - Alfv´en-Modus MHD-Turbulenz KW - Richardson-Superdiffusion KW - Kaskadenrate KW - Diffusion kosmischer Strahlung KW - effiziente Streuung KW - Isotroper schneller Modus Turbulenzen KW - bedeuten freie Bahn Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-589030 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Adolfs, Marjolijn A1 - Hoque, Mohammed Mainul A1 - Shprits, Yuri T1 - Storm-time relative total electron content modelling using machine learning techniques JF - Remote sensing N2 - Accurately predicting total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms is still a challenging task for ionospheric models. In this work, a neural-network (NN)-based model is proposed which predicts relative TEC with respect to the preceding 27-day median TEC, during storm time for the European region (with longitudes 30 degrees W-50 degrees E and latitudes 32.5 degrees N-70 degrees N). The 27-day median TEC (referred to as median TEC), latitude, longitude, universal time, storm time, solar radio flux index F10.7, global storm index SYM-H and geomagnetic activity index Hp30 are used as inputs and the output of the network is the relative TEC. The relative TEC can be converted to the actual TEC knowing the median TEC. The median TEC is calculated at each grid point over the European region considering data from the last 27 days before the storm using global ionosphere maps (GIMs) from international GNSS service (IGS) sources. A storm event is defined when the storm time disturbance index Dst drops below 50 nanotesla. The model was trained with storm-time relative TEC data from the time period of 1998 until 2019 (2015 is excluded) and contains 365 storms. Unseen storm data from 33 storm events during 2015 and 2020 were used to test the model. The UQRG GIMs were used because of their high temporal resolution (15 min) compared to other products from different analysis centers. The NN-based model predictions show the seasonal behavior of the storms including positive and negative storm phases during winter and summer, respectively, and show a mixture of both phases during equinoxes. The model's performance was also compared with the Neustrelitz TEC model (NTCM) and the NN-based quiet-time TEC model, both developed at the German Aerospace Agency (DLR). The storm model has a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 3.38 TEC units (TECU), which is an improvement by 1.87 TECU compared to the NTCM, where an RMSE of 5.25 TECU was found. This improvement corresponds to a performance increase by 35.6%. The storm-time model outperforms the quiet-time model by 1.34 TECU, which corresponds to a performance increase by 28.4% from 4.72 to 3.38 TECU. The quiet-time model was trained with Carrington averaged TEC and, therefore, is ideal to be used as an input instead of the GIM derived 27-day median. We found an improvement by 0.8 TECU which corresponds to a performance increase by 17% from 4.72 to 3.92 TECU for the storm-time model using the quiet-time-model predicted TEC as an input compared to solely using the quiet-time model. KW - ionosphere KW - relative total electron content KW - geomagnetic storms KW - neural KW - networks KW - NTCM KW - European storm-time model Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14236155 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 14 IS - 23 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Smirnov, Artem A1 - Berrendorf, Max A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Kronberg, Elena A. A1 - Allison, Hayley J. A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina A1 - Morley, Steven K. A1 - Reeves, Geoffrey D. A1 - Carver, Matthew R. A1 - Effenberger, Frederic T1 - Medium energy electron flux in earth's outer radiation belt (MERLIN) BT - a Machine learning model JF - Space weather : the international journal of research and applications N2 - The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120-600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis. KW - machine learning KW - radiation belts KW - electron flux KW - empirical modeling KW - magnetosphere KW - electrons Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002532 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 18 IS - 11 PB - American geophysical union, AGU CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cervantes Villa, Juan Sebastian A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Castillo Tibocha, Angelica Maria A1 - Stolle, Claudia T1 - Identifying radiation belt electron source and loss processes by assimilating spacecraft data in a three-dimensional diffusion model JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - Data assimilation aims to blend incomplete and inaccurate data with physics-based dynamical models. In the Earth's radiation belts, it is used to reconstruct electron phase space density, and it has become an increasingly important tool in validating our current understanding of radiation belt dynamics, identifying new physical processes, and predicting the near-Earth hazardous radiation environment. In this study, we perform reanalysis of the sparse measurements from four spacecraft using the three-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt diffusion model and a split-operator Kalman filter over a 6-month period from 1 October 2012 to 1 April 2013. In comparison to previous works, our 3-D model accounts for more physical processes, namely, mixed pitch angle-energy diffusion, scattering by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron waves, and magnetopause shadowing. We describe how data assimilation, by means of the innovation vector, can be used to account for missing physics in the model. We use this method to identify the radial distances from the Earth and the geomagnetic conditions where our model is inconsistent with the measured phase space density for different values of the invariants mu and K. As a result, the Kalman filter adjusts the predictions in order to match the observations, and we interpret this as evidence of where and when additional source or loss processes are active. The current work demonstrates that 3-D data assimilation provides a comprehensive picture of the radiation belt electrons and is a crucial step toward performing reanalysis using measurements from ongoing and future missions. KW - acceleration KW - code KW - density KW - emic waves KW - energetic particle KW - mechanisms KW - reanalysis KW - ultrarelativistic electrons KW - weather Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JA027514 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 125 IS - 1 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Smirnov, Artem A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Allison, Hayley A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Kollmann, Peter A1 - Wang, Dedong A1 - Saikin, Anthony T1 - An empirical model of the equatorial electron pitch angle distributions in earth's outer radiation belt JF - Space Weather: the International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - In this study, we present an empirical model of the equatorial electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in the outer radiation belt based on the full data set collected by the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes in 2012-2019. The PADs are fitted with a combination of the first, third and fifth sine harmonics. The resulting equation resolves all PAD types found in the outer radiation belt (pancake, flat-top, butterfly and cap PADs) and can be analytically integrated to derive omnidirectional flux. We introduce a two-step modeling procedure that for the first time ensures a continuous dependence on L, magnetic local time and activity, parametrized by the solar wind dynamic pressure. We propose two methods to reconstruct equatorial electron flux using the model. The first approach requires two uni-directional flux observations and is applicable to low-PA data. The second method can be used to reconstruct the full equatorial PADs from a single uni- or omnidirectional measurement at off-equatorial latitudes. The model can be used for converting the long-term data sets of electron fluxes to phase space density in terms of adiabatic invariants, for physics-based modeling in the form of boundary conditions, and for data assimilation purposes. KW - pitch angle KW - radiation belt KW - model KW - magnetosphere KW - van allen probes; KW - electrons Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003053 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 20 IS - 9 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington, DC ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Walker, Simon N. A1 - Boynton, Richard J. A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Balikhin, Michael A. A1 - Drozdov, Alexander T1 - Forecast of the energetic electron environment of the radiation belts JF - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - Different modeling methodologies possess different strengths and weakness. For instance, data based models may provide superior accuracy but have a limited spatial coverage while physics based models may provide lower accuracy but provide greater spatial coverage. This study investigates the coupling of a data based model of the electron fluxes at geostationary orbit (GEO) with a numerical model of the radiation belt region to improve the resulting forecasts/pastcasts of electron fluxes over the whole radiation belt region. In particular, two coupling methods are investigated. The first assumes an average value for L* for GEO, namely LGEO* L-GEO* = 6.2. The second uses a value of L* that varies with geomagnetic activity, quantified using the Kp index. As the terrestrial magnetic field responds to variations in geomagnetic activity, the value of L* will vary for a specific location. In this coupling method, the value of L* is calculated using the Kp driven Tsyganenko 89c magnetic field model for field line tracing. It is shown that this addition can result in changes in the initialization of the parameters at the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt model outer boundary. Model outputs are compared to Van Allen Probes MagEIS measurements of the electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere for the March 2015 geomagnetic storm. It is found that the fixed LGEO* L-GEO* coupling method produces a more realistic forecast. KW - radiation belt forecasts KW - data based NARMAX modeling KW - verb simulations; KW - geostationary orbit KW - electron flux forecasts Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003124 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 20 IS - 12 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - THES A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina T1 - Modeling of the Plasmasphere Dynamics T1 - Modellierung der Plasmasphärendynamik N2 - The plasmasphere is a dynamic region of cold, dense plasma surrounding the Earth. Its shape and size are highly susceptible to variations in solar and geomagnetic conditions. Having an accurate model of plasma density in the plasmasphere is important for GNSS navigation and for predicting hazardous effects of radiation in space on spacecraft. The distribution of cold plasma and its dynamic dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic conditions remain, however, poorly quantified. Existing empirical models of plasma density tend to be oversimplified as they are based on statistical averages over static parameters. Understanding the global dynamics of the plasmasphere using observations from space remains a challenge, as existing density measurements are sparse and limited to locations where satellites can provide in-situ observations. In this dissertation, we demonstrate how such sparse electron density measurements can be used to reconstruct the global electron density distribution in the plasmasphere and capture its dynamic dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic conditions. First, we develop an automated algorithm to determine the electron density from in-situ measurements of the electric field on the Van Allen Probes spacecraft. In particular, we design a neural network to infer the upper hybrid resonance frequency from the dynamic spectrograms obtained with the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) instrumentation suite, which is then used to calculate the electron number density. The developed Neural-network-based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination (NURD) algorithm is applied to more than four years of EMFISIS measurements to produce the publicly available electron density data set. We utilize the obtained electron density data set to develop a new global model of plasma density by employing a neural network-based modeling approach. In addition to the location, the model takes the time history of geomagnetic indices and location as inputs, and produces electron density in the equatorial plane as an output. It is extensively validated using in-situ density measurements from the Van Allen Probes mission, and also by comparing the predicted global evolution of the plasmasphere with the global IMAGE EUV images of He+ distribution. The model successfully reproduces erosion of the plasmasphere on the night side as well as plume formation and evolution, and agrees well with data. The performance of neural networks strongly depends on the availability of training data, which is limited during intervals of high geomagnetic activity. In order to provide reliable density predictions during such intervals, we can employ physics-based modeling. We develop a new approach for optimally combining the neural network- and physics-based models of the plasmasphere by means of data assimilation. The developed approach utilizes advantages of both neural network- and physics-based modeling and produces reliable global plasma density reconstructions for quiet, disturbed, and extreme geomagnetic conditions. Finally, we extend the developed machine learning-based tools and apply them to another important problem in the field of space weather, the prediction of the geomagnetic index Kp. The Kp index is one of the most widely used indicators for space weather alerts and serves as input to various models, such as for the thermosphere, the radiation belts and the plasmasphere. It is therefore crucial to predict the Kp index accurately. Previous work in this area has mostly employed artificial neural networks to nowcast and make short-term predictions of Kp, basing their inferences on the recent history of Kp and solar wind measurements at L1. We analyze how the performance of neural networks compares to other machine learning algorithms for nowcasting and forecasting Kp for up to 12 hours ahead. Additionally, we investigate several machine learning and information theory methods for selecting the optimal inputs to a predictive model of Kp. The developed tools for feature selection can also be applied to other problems in space physics in order to reduce the input dimensionality and identify the most important drivers. Research outlined in this dissertation clearly demonstrates that machine learning tools can be used to develop empirical models from sparse data and also can be used to understand the underlying physical processes. Combining machine learning, physics-based modeling and data assimilation allows us to develop novel methods benefiting from these different approaches. N2 - Die Plasmasphäre ist eine die Erde umgebende dynamische Region aus kaltem, dichtem Plasma. Ihre Form und Größe sind sehr anfällig für Schwankungen der solaren und geomagnetischen Bedingungen. Ein präzises Modell der Plasmadichte in der Plasmasphäre ist wichtig für die GNSS-Navigation und für die Vorhersage gefährlicher Auswirkungen der kosmischen Strahlung auf Raumfahrzeuge. Die Verteilung des kalten Plasmas und seine dynamische Abhängigkeit vom Sonnenwind und den geomagnetischen Bedingungen sind jedoch nach wie vor nur unzureichend quantifiziert. Bestehende empirische Modelle der Plasmadichte sind in der Regel zu stark vereinfacht, da sie auf statistischen Durchschnittswerten statischer Parameter basieren. Das Verständnis der globalen Dynamik der Plasmasphäre anhand von Beobachtungen aus dem Weltraum bleibt eine Herausforderung, da vorhandene Dichtemessungen spärlich sind und sich auf Orte beschränken, an denen Satelliten In-situ-Beobachtungen liefern können. In dieser Dissertation zeigen wir, wie solche spärlichen Elektronendichtemessungen verwendet werden können, um die globale Elektronendichteverteilung in der Plasmasphäre zu rekonstruieren und ihre dynamische Abhängigkeit vom Sonnenwind und den geomagnetischen Bedingungen zu erfassen. Zunächst entwickeln wir einen automatisierten Algorithmus zur Bestimmung der Elektronendichte aus In-situ-Messungen des elektrischen Feldes der Van Allen Probes Raumsonden. Insbesondere entwerfen wir ein neuronales Netzwerk, um die obere Hybridresonanzfrequenz aus den dynamischen Spektrogrammen abzuleiten, die wir durch die Instrumentensuite „Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite“ (EMFISIS) erhielten, welche dann zur Berechnung der Elektronenzahldichte verwendet wird. Der entwickelte „Neural-network-based Upper Hybrid Resonance Determination“ (NURD)-Algorithmus wird auf mehr als vier Jahre der EMFISIS-Messungen angewendet, um den öffentlich verfügbaren Elektronendichte-Datensatz zu erstellen. Wir verwenden den erhaltenen Elektronendichte-Datensatz, um ein neues globales Modell der Plasmadichte zu entwickeln, indem wir einen auf einem neuronalen Netzwerk basierenden Modellierungsansatz verwenden. Zusätzlich zum Ort nimmt das Modell den zeitlichen Verlauf der geomagnetischen Indizes und des Ortes als Eingabe und erzeugt als Ausgabe die Elektronendichte in der äquatorialebene. Dies wird ausführlich anhand von In-situ-Dichtemessungen der Van Allen Probes-Mission und durch den Vergleich der vom Modell vorhergesagten globalen Entwicklung der Plasmasphäre mit den globalen IMAGE EUV-Bildern der He+ -Verteilung validiert. Das Modell reproduziert erfolgreich die Erosion der Plasmasphäre auf der Nachtseite sowie die Bildung und Entwicklung von Fahnen und stimmt gut mit den Daten überein. Die Leistung neuronaler Netze hängt stark von der Verfügbarkeit von Trainingsdaten ab, die für Intervalle hoher geomagnetischer Aktivität nur spärlich vorhanden sind. Um zuverlässige Dichtevorhersagen während solcher Intervalle zu liefern, können wir eine physikalische Modellierung verwenden. Wir entwickeln einen neuen Ansatz zur optimalen Kombination der neuronalen Netzwerk- und physikbasierenden Modelle der Plasmasphäre mittels Datenassimilation. Der entwickelte Ansatz nutzt sowohl die Vorteile neuronaler Netze als auch die physikalischen Modellierung und liefert zuverlässige Rekonstruktionen der globalen Plasmadichte für ruhige, gestörte und extreme geomagnetische Bedingungen. Schließlich erweitern wir die entwickelten auf maschinellem Lernen basierten Werkzeuge und wenden sie auf ein weiteres wichtiges Problem im Bereich des Weltraumwetters an, die Vorhersage des geomagnetischen Index Kp. Der Kp-Index ist einer der am häufigsten verwendeten Indikatoren für Weltraumwetterwarnungen und dient als Eingabe für verschiedene Modelle, z.B. für die Thermosphäre, die Strahlungsgürtel und die Plasmasphäre. Es ist daher wichtig, den Kp-Index genau vorherzusagen. Frühere Arbeiten in diesem Bereich verwendeten hauptsächlich künstliche neuronale Netze, um Kurzzeit-Kp-Vorhersagen zu treffen, wobei deren Schlussfolgerungen auf der jüngsten Vergangenheit von Kp- und Sonnenwindmessungen am L1-Punkt beruhten. Wir analysieren, wie sich die Leistung neuronaler Netze im Vergleich zu anderen Algorithmen für maschinelles Lernen verhält, um kurz- und längerfristige Kp-Voraussagen von bis zu 12 Stunden treffen zu können. Zusätzlich untersuchen wir verschiedene Methoden des maschinellen Lernens und der Informationstheorie zur Auswahl der optimalen Eingaben für ein Vorhersagemodell von Kp. Die entwickelten Werkzeuge zur Merkmalsauswahl können auch auf andere Probleme in der Weltraumphysik angewendet werden, um die Eingabedimensionalität zu reduzieren und die wichtigsten Treiber zu identifizieren. Die in dieser Dissertation skizzierten Untersuchungen zeigen deutlich, dass Werkzeuge für maschinelles Lernen sowohl zur Entwicklung empirischer Modelle aus spärlichen Daten als auch zum Verstehen zugrunde liegender physikalischer Prozesse genutzt werden können. Die Kombination von maschinellem Lernen, physikbasierter Modellierung und Datenassimilation ermöglicht es uns, kombinierte Methoden zu entwickeln, die von unterschiedlichen Ansätzen profitieren. KW - Plasmasphere KW - Inner magnetosphere KW - Neural networks KW - Machine learning KW - Modeling KW - Kp index KW - Geomagnetic activity KW - Data assimilation KW - Validation KW - IMAGE EUV KW - Kalman filter KW - Plasmasphäre KW - Innere Magnetosphäre KW - Neuronale Netze KW - Maschinelles Lernen KW - Modellieren KW - Forecasting KW - Kp-Index KW - Geomagnetische Aktivität KW - Datenassimilation KW - Validierung KW - Kalman Filter KW - Prognose Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-482433 ER - TY - THES A1 - Cervantes Villa, Juan Sebastian T1 - Understanding the dynamics of radiation belt electrons by means of data assimilation T1 - Verständnis der Dynamik von Strahlungsgürtel-Elektronen durch Datenassimilation N2 - The Earth's electron radiation belts exhibit a two-zone structure, with the outer belt being highly dynamic due to the constant competition between a number of physical processes, including acceleration, loss, and transport. The flux of electrons in the outer belt can vary over several orders of magnitude, reaching levels that may disrupt satellite operations. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms that drive these variations is of high interest to the scientific community. In particular, the important role played by loss mechanisms in controlling relativistic electron dynamics has become increasingly clear in recent years. It is now widely accepted that radiation belt electrons can be lost either by precipitation into the atmosphere or by transport across the magnetopause, called magnetopause shadowing. Precipitation of electrons occurs due to pitch-angle scattering by resonant interaction with various types of waves, including whistler mode chorus, plasmaspheric hiss, and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. In addition, the compression of the magnetopause due to increases in solar wind dynamic pressure can substantially deplete electrons at high L shells where they find themselves in open drift paths, whereas electrons at low L shells can be lost through outward radial diffusion. Nevertheless, the role played by each physical process during electron flux dropouts still remains a fundamental puzzle. Differentiation between these processes and quantification of their relative contributions to the evolution of radiation belt electrons requires high-resolution profiles of phase space density (PSD). However, such profiles of PSD are difficult to obtain due to restrictions of spacecraft observations to a single measurement in space and time, which is also compounded by the inaccuracy of instruments. Data assimilation techniques aim to blend incomplete and inaccurate spaceborne data with physics-based models in an optimal way. In the Earth's radiation belts, it is used to reconstruct the entire radial profile of electron PSD, and it has become an increasingly important tool in validating our current understanding of radiation belt dynamics, identifying new physical processes, and predicting the near-Earth hazardous radiation environment. In this study, sparse measurements from Van Allen Probes A and B and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13 and 15 are assimilated into the three-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB-3D) diffusion model, by means of a split-operator Kalman filter over a four-year period from 01 October 2012 to 01 October 2016. In comparison to previous works, the 3D model accounts for more physical processes, namely mixed pitch angle-energy diffusion, scattering by EMIC waves, and magnetopause shadowing. It is shown how data assimilation, by means of the innovation vector (the residual between observations and model forecast), can be used to account for missing physics in the model. This method is used to identify the radial distances from the Earth and the geomagnetic conditions where the model is inconsistent with the measured PSD for different values of the adiabatic invariants mu and K. As a result, the Kalman filter adjusts the predictions in order to match the observations, and this is interpreted as evidence of where and when additional source or loss processes are active. Furthermore, two distinct loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons are investigated: EMIC wave-induced scattering and magnetopause shadowing. The innovation vector is inspected for values of the invariant mu ranging from 300 to 3000 MeV/G, and a statistical analysis is performed to quantitatively assess the effect of both processes as a function of various geomagnetic indices, solar wind parameters, and radial distance from the Earth. The results of this work are in agreement with previous studies that demonstrated the energy dependence of these two mechanisms. EMIC wave scattering dominates loss at lower L shells and it may amount to between 10%/hr to 30%/hr of the maximum value of PSD over all L shells for fixed first and second adiabatic invariants. On the other hand, magnetopause shadowing is found to deplete electrons across all energies, mostly at higher L shells, resulting in loss from 50%/hr to 70%/hr of the maximum PSD. Nevertheless, during times of enhanced geomagnetic activity, both processes can operate beyond such location and encompass the entire outer radiation belt. The results of this study are two-fold. Firstly, it demonstrates that the 3D data assimilative code provides a comprehensive picture of the radiation belts and is an important step toward performing reanalysis using observations from current and future missions. Secondly, it achieves a better understanding and provides critical clues of the dominant loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of electrons at different locations over the outer radiation belt. N2 - Die Elektronenstrahlungsgürtel der Erde weisen eine Zwei-Zonen-Struktur auf, wobei der äußere Gürtel aufgrund des ständigen Zusammenspiels zwischen einer Reihe von physikalischen Prozessen, einschließlich Beschleunigung, Verlust und Transport, eine hohe Dynamik aufweist. Der Elektronenfluss im äußeren Gürtel kann über mehrere Größenordnungen variieren und Werte erreichen, die den Satellitenbetrieb stören können. Daher ist das Verständnis der Mechanismen, die diese Variabilität bewirken, von hohem Interesse für die wissenschaftliche Gemeinschaft. Insbesondere die wichtige Rolle die Verlustmechanismen bei der Kontrolle der relativistischen Elektronendynamik spielen ist in den letzten Jahren immer deutlicher geworden. Es ist inzwischen weithin anerkannt, dass Strahlungsgürtelelektronen entweder durch Interaktion mit der Atmosphäre oder durch Transport über die Magnetopause, das so genannte Magnetopauseshadowing, verloren gehen können. Der Verlust von Elektronen in der Atmosphäre erfolgt aufgrund von Pitchwinkelstreuung durch resonante Wechselwirkung mit verschiedenen Arten von magnetosphärischen Wellen, einschließlich plasmasphärischem Hiss, Whistler-Mode-Chorus, und elektromagnetischen Ionenzyklotron-Wellen (EMIC). Darüber hinaus kann die Komprimierung der Magnetopause aufgrund der Erhöhungen des dynamischen Drucks des Sonnenwindes dazu führen, dass Elektronen an hohen L-Shells, wo sie sich in offenen Driftpfaden befinden, erheblich in ihrer Dichte reduziert werden, während Elektronen an niedrigen L-Shells durch radiale Diffusion nach außen verloren gehen können. Nichtsdestotrotz bleibt die Rolle, die jeder physikalische Prozess bei der schnellen Reduktion des Elektronenflusses spielt, nach wie vor ein grundlegendes Rätsel. Die Unterscheidung zwischen diesen Prozessen und die Quantifizierung ihrer relativen Beiträge zur Entwicklung der Strahlungsgürtelelektronen erfordert hochauflösende Profile der Phasenraumdichte (PSD). Solche Profile der PSD sind jedoch schwierig zu bestimmen, da die Beobachtungen von Raumfahrzeugen auf eine einzige Messung in Raum und Zeit beschränkt sind, was auch durch die Ungenauigkeit der Instrumente erschwert wird. Datenassimilationstechniken zielen darauf ab, unvollständige und ungenaue raumgestützte Daten mit physikalisch basierten Modellen auf optimale Weise zu kombinieren. In den Strahlungsgürteln der Erde werden sie verwendet, um das gesamte radiale Profil der Elektronen-PSD zu rekonstruieren, und sie sind zu einem immer wichtigeren Werkzeug geworden, um unser derzeitiges Verständnis der Dynamik der Strahlungsgürtel zu validieren, neue physikalische Prozesse zu identifizieren und die erdnahe gefährliche Strahlungsumgebung vorherzusagen. In dieser Studie werden Messungen der Van-Allen-Probes A und B und der Geostationary-Operational-Environmental-Satellites (GOES) 13 und 15 mit Hilfe eines Split-Operator-Kalman-Filters über einen Zeitraum von vier Jahren vom 01. Oktober 2012 bis zum 01. Oktober 2016 in das dreidimensionale Versatile Electron Radiation Belt-3D-Diffusionsmodell (VERB-3D) integriert. Im Vergleich zu früheren Arbeiten berücksichtigt das 3D-Modell mehr physikalische Prozesse, nämlich gemischte Diffusion, Streuung durch EMIC-Wellen und Magnetopausenverluste. Es wird gezeigt, wie die Datenassimilation mit Hilfe des Innovationsvektors (des Residuums zwischen Beobachtungen und Modellprognose), genutzt werden kann, um fehlende physikalische Prozesse im Modell zu berücksichtigen. Diese Methode wird verwendet, um die radialen Entfernungen von der Erde und die geomagnetischen Bedingungen zu identifizieren, bei denen unser Modell für verschiedene Werte der adiabatischen Invarianten mu und K nicht mit der gemessenen PSD übereinstimmt. Infolgedessen passt der Kalman-Filter die Vorhersagen an die Beobachtungen an, und dies wird als Nachweis dafür interpretiert, wo und wann zusätzliche Quellen- oder Verlustprozesse aktiv sind. Darüber hinaus werden zwei unterschiedliche Verlustmechanismen untersucht, die für die schnellen Verluste von Strahlungsgürtelelektronen verantwortlich sind: EMIC-Wellen-induzierte Streuung und Magnetopausenverluste. Der Innovationsvektor wird bei Werten der Invariante mu im Bereich von 300 bis 3000 MeV/G untersucht, und es wird eine statistische Analyse durchgeführt, um die Wirkung beider Prozesse in Abhängigkeit von verschiedenen geomagnetischen Indizes, Sonnenwindparametern und der radialen Entfernung von der Erde quantitativ zu bewerten. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit stehen in Übereinstimmung mit früheren Studien, die die Energieabhängigkeit dieser beiden Mechanismen nachgewiesen haben. Die EMIC-Wellenstreuung dominiert den Verlust bei niedrigen L-Shells und kann zwi-schen 10%/hr bis 30%/hr des Maximalwertes der PSD über alle L-Shells für feste Werte der ersten und zweiten adiabatische Invarianten betragen. Andererseits wird festgestellt, dass bei den Magnetopausenverlusten über alle Energien hinweg, meist bei höheren L-Shells, Elektronen Verluste zeigen, was zu einer Verstärkung des Verlustes von 50%/hr auf 70%/hr der maximalen PSD führt. Nichtsdestotrotz können beide Prozesse in Zeiten erhöhter geomagnetischer Aktivität über diese L-Shells hinaus wirken und den gesamten äußeren Strahlungsgürtel umfassen. Die Ergebnisse dieser Studie sind zweifacher Art. Erstens zeigt sie, dass der 3D-Daten-Assimilationscode ein umfassendes Bild der Strahlungsgürtel liefert und ein wichtiger Schritt zur Durchführung einer Reanalyse unter Verwendung von Beobachtungen aus aktuellen und zukünftigen Missionen ist. Zweitens erreicht er ein besseres Verständnis und liefert entscheidende Hinweise auf die vorherrschenden Verlustmechanismen, die für die schnellen Verluste von Elektronen an verschiedenen Orten im äußeren Strahlungsgürtel verantwortlich sind. KW - radiation belts KW - Strahlungsgürtel KW - data assimilation KW - Datenassimilation KW - phase space density KW - Phasenraumdichte KW - magnetospheric waves KW - magnetosphärischen Wellen KW - Kalman filter KW - Kalman-Filter Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-519827 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Liemohn, Michael W. A1 - McCollough, James P. A1 - Jordanova, Vania K. A1 - Ngwira, Chigomezyo M. A1 - Morley, Steven K. A1 - Cid, Consuelo A1 - Tobiska, W. Kent A1 - Wintoft, Peter A1 - Ganushkina, Natalia Yu A1 - Welling, Daniel T. A1 - Bingham, Suzy A1 - Balikhin, Michael A. A1 - Opgenoorth, Hermann J. A1 - Engel, Miles A. A1 - Weigel, Robert S. A1 - Singer, Howard J. A1 - Buresova, Dalia A1 - Bruinsma, Sean A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Vasile, Ruggero T1 - Model Evaluation Guidelines for Geomagnetic Index Predictions JF - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near-Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best-known indices are calculated from ground-based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM-H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root-mean-square error and mean absolute error that are applied to a time series comparison of model output and observations and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. A few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices. Plain Language Summary One aspect of space weather is a magnetic signature across the surface of the Earth. The creation of this signal involves nonlinear interactions of electromagnetic forces on charged particles and can therefore be difficult to predict. The perturbations that space storms and other activity causes in some observation sets, however, are fairly regular in their pattern. Some of these measurements have been compiled together into a single value, a geomagnetic index. Several such indices exist, providing a global estimate of the activity in different parts of geospace. Models have been developed to predict the time series of these indices, and various statistical methods are used to assess their performance at reproducing the original index. Existing studies of geomagnetic indices, however, use different approaches to quantify the performance of the model. This document defines a standardized set of statistical analyses as a baseline set of comparison tools that are recommended to assess geomagnetic index prediction models. It also discusses best practices, limitations, uncertainties, and caveats to consider when conducting a model assessment. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002067 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 16 IS - 12 SP - 2079 EP - 2102 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Woodfield, Emma E. A1 - Horne, Richard B. A1 - Glauert, S. A. A1 - Menietti, J. D. A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Kurth, William S. T1 - Formation of electron radiation belts at Saturn by Z-mode wave acceleration JF - Nature Communications N2 - At Saturn electrons are trapped in the planet’s magnetic field and accelerated to relativistic energies to form the radiation belts, but how this dramatic increase in electron energy occurs is still unknown. Until now the mechanism of radial diffusion has been assumed but we show here that in-situ acceleration through wave particle interactions, which initial studies dismissed as ineffectual at Saturn, is in fact a vital part of the energetic particle dynamics there. We present evidence from numerical simulations based on Cassini spacecraft data that a particular plasma wave, known as Z-mode, accelerates electrons to MeV energies inside 4 RS (1 RS = 60,330 km) through a Doppler shifted cyclotron resonant interaction. Our results show that the Z-mode waves observed are not oblique as previously assumed and are much better accelerators than O-mode waves, resulting in an electron energy spectrum that closely approaches observed values without any transport effects included. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07549-4 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 9 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cao, Xing A1 - Ni, Binbin A1 - Summers, Danny A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Gu, Xudong A1 - Fu, Song A1 - Lou, Yuequn A1 - Zhang, Yang A1 - Ma, Xin A1 - Zhang, Wenxun A1 - Huang, He A1 - Yi, Juan T1 - Sensitivity of EMIC wave-driven scattering loss of ring current protons to wave normal angle distribution JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves have long been recognized to play a crucial role in the dynamic loss of ring current protons. While the field-aligned propagation approximation of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves was widely used to quantify the scattering loss of ring current protons, in this study, we find that the wave normal distribution strongly affects the pitch angle scattering efficiency of protons. Increase of peak normal angle or angular width can considerably reduce the scattering rates of <= 10 keV protons. For >10 keV protons, the field-aligned propagation approximation results in a pronounced underestimate of the scattering of intermediate equatorial pitch angle protons and overestimates the scattering of high equatorial pitch angle protons by orders of magnitude. Our results suggest that the wave normal distribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves plays an important role in the pitch angle evolution and scattering loss of ring current protons and should be incorporated in future global modeling of ring current dynamics. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081550 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 46 IS - 2 SP - 590 EP - 598 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - THES A1 - Smirnov, Artem T1 - Understanding the dynamics of the near-earth space environment utilizing long-term satellite observations T1 - Verständnis der Dynamik der erdnahen Weltraumumgebung mit Hilfe von Langzeit-Satellitenbeobachtungen N2 - The near-Earth space environment is a highly complex system comprised of several regions and particle populations hazardous to satellite operations. The trapped particles in the radiation belts and ring current can cause significant damage to satellites during space weather events, due to deep dielectric and surface charging. Closer to Earth is another important region, the ionosphere, which delays the propagation of radio signals and can adversely affect navigation and positioning. In response to fluctuations in solar and geomagnetic activity, both the inner-magnetospheric and ionospheric populations can undergo drastic and sudden changes within minutes to hours, which creates a challenge for predicting their behavior. Given the increasing reliance of our society on satellite technology, improving our understanding and modeling of these populations is a matter of paramount importance. In recent years, numerous spacecraft have been launched to study the dynamics of particle populations in the near-Earth space, transforming it into a data-rich environment. To extract valuable insights from the abundance of available observations, it is crucial to employ advanced modeling techniques, and machine learning methods are among the most powerful approaches available. This dissertation employs long-term satellite observations to analyze the processes that drive particle dynamics, and builds interdisciplinary links between space physics and machine learning by developing new state-of-the-art models of the inner-magnetospheric and ionospheric particle dynamics. The first aim of this thesis is to investigate the behavior of electrons in Earth's radiation belts and ring current. Using ~18 years of electron flux observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS), we developed the first machine learning model of hundreds-of-keV electron flux at Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) that is driven solely by solar wind and geomagnetic indices and does not require auxiliary flux measurements as inputs. We then proceeded to analyze the directional distributions of electrons, and for the first time, used Fourier sine series to fit electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in Earth's inner magnetosphere. We performed a superposed epoch analysis of 129 geomagnetic storms during the Van Allen Probes era and demonstrated that electron PADs have a strong energy-dependent response to geomagnetic activity. Additionally, we showed that the solar wind dynamic pressure could be used as a good predictor of the PAD dynamics. Using the observed dependencies, we created the first PAD model with a continuous dependence on L, magnetic local time (MLT) and activity, and developed two techniques to reconstruct near-equatorial electron flux observations from low-PA data using this model. The second objective of this thesis is to develop a novel model of the topside ionosphere. To achieve this goal, we collected observations from five of the most widely used ionospheric missions and intercalibrated these data sets. This allowed us to use these data jointly for model development, validation, and comparison with other existing empirical models. We demonstrated, for the first time, that ion density observations by Swarm Langmuir Probes exhibit overestimation (up to ~40-50%) at low and mid-latitudes on the night side, and suggested that the influence of light ions could be a potential cause of this overestimation. To develop the topside model, we used 19 years of radio occultation (RO) electron density profiles, which were fitted with a Chapman function with a linear dependence of scale height on altitude. This approximation yields 4 parameters, namely the peak density and height of the F2-layer and the slope and intercept of the linear scale height trend, which were modeled using feedforward neural networks (NNs). The model was extensively validated against both RO and in-situ observations and was found to outperform the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model by up to an order of magnitude. Our analysis showed that the most substantial deviations of the IRI model from the data occur at altitudes of 100-200 km above the F2-layer peak. The developed NN-based ionospheric model reproduces the effects of various physical mechanisms observed in the topside ionosphere and provides highly accurate electron density predictions. This dissertation provides an extensive study of geospace dynamics, and the main results of this work contribute to the improvement of models of plasma populations in the near-Earth space environment. N2 - Die erdnahe Weltraumumgebung ist ein hochkomplexes System, das aus mehreren Regionen und Partikelpopulationen besteht, die für den Satellitenbetrieb gefährlich sind. Die in den Strahlungsgürteln und dem Ringstrom gefangenen Teilchen können bei Weltraumwetterereignissen aufgrund der tiefen dielektrischen und oberflächlichen Aufladung erhebliche Schäden an Satelliten verursachen. Näher an der Erde liegt eine weitere wichtige Region, die Ionosphäre, die die Ausbreitung von Funksignalen verzögert und die Navigation und Positionsbestimmung beeinträchtigen kann. Als Reaktion auf Fluktuationen der solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität können sowohl die Populationen der inneren Magnetosphäre als auch der Ionosphäre innerhalb von Minuten bis Stunden drastische und plötzliche Veränderungen erfahren, was eine Herausforderung für die Vorhersage ihres Verhaltens darstellt. Angesichts der zunehmenden Abhängigkeit unserer Gesellschaft von der Satellitentechnologie ist ein besseres Verständnis und eine bessere Modellierung dieser Populationen von größter Bedeutung. In den letzten Jahren wurden zahlreiche Raumsonden gestartet, um die Dynamik von Partikelpopulationen im erdnahen Weltraum zu untersuchen, was diesen in eine datenreiche Umgebung verwandelt hat. Um aus der Fülle der verfügbaren Beobachtungen wertvolle Erkenntnisse zu gewinnen, ist der Einsatz fortschrittlicher Modellierungstechniken unabdingbar, und Methoden des maschinellen Lernens gehören zu den leistungsfähigsten verfügbaren Ansätzen. Diese Dissertation nutzt langfristige Satellitenbeobachtungen, um die Prozesse zu analysieren, die die Teilchendynamik antreiben, und schafft interdisziplinäre Verbindungen zwischen Weltraumphysik und maschinellem Lernen, indem sie neue hochmoderne Modelle der innermagnetosphärischen und ionosphärischen Teilchendynamik entwickelt. Das erste Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, das Verhalten von Elektronen im Strahlungsgürtel und Ringstrom der Erde zu untersuchen. Unter Verwendung von ~18 Jahren Elektronenflussbeobachtungen des Global Positioning System (GPS) haben wir das erste maschinelle Lernmodell des Elektronenflusses im mittleren Erdorbit (MEO) entwickelt, das ausschließlich durch Sonnenwind und geomagnetische Indizes gesteuert wird und keine zusätzlichen Flussmessungen als Eingaben benötigt. Anschließend analysierten wir die Richtungsverteilungen der Elektronen und verwendeten zum ersten Mal Fourier-Sinus-Reihen, um die Elektronen-Stellwinkelverteilungen (PADs) in der inneren Magnetosphäre der Erde zu bestimmen. Wir führten eine epochenübergreifende Analyse von 129 geomagnetischen Stürmen während der Van-Allen-Sonden-Ära durch und zeigten, dass die Elektronen-PADs eine starke energieabhängige Reaktion auf die geomagnetische Aktivität haben. Außerdem konnten wir zeigen, dass der dynamische Druck des Sonnenwindes als guter Prädiktor für die PAD-Dynamik verwendet werden kann. Anhand der beobachteten Abhängigkeiten haben wir das erste PAD-Modell mit einer kontinuierlichen Abhängigkeit von L, der magnetischen Ortszeit (MLT) und der Aktivität erstellt und zwei Techniken entwickelt, um die Beobachtungen des äquatornahen Elektronenflusses aus Daten mit niedrigem Luftdruck mit Hilfe dieses Modells zu rekonstruieren. Das zweite Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung eines neuen Modells der Topside-Ionosphäre. Um dieses Ziel zu erreichen, haben wir Beobachtungen von fünf der meistgenutzten Ionosphärenmissionen gesammelt und diese Datensätze interkalibriert. So konnten wir diese Daten gemeinsam für die Modellentwicklung, die Validierung und den Vergleich mit anderen bestehenden empirischen Modellen nutzen. Wir haben zum ersten Mal gezeigt, dass die Ionendichtebeobachtungen von Swarm-Langmuir-Sonden in niedrigen und mittleren Breiten auf der Nachtseite eine Überschätzung (bis zu ~40-50%) aufweisen, und haben vorgeschlagen, dass der Einfluss leichter Ionen eine mögliche Ursache für diese Überschätzung sein könnte. Zur Entwicklung des Oberseitenmodells wurden 19 Jahre lang Elektronendichteprofile aus der Radio-Okkultation (RO) verwendet, die mit einer Chapman-Funktion mit einer linearen Abhängigkeit der Skalenhöhe von der Höhe angepasst wurden. Aus dieser Näherung ergeben sich 4 Parameter, nämlich die Spitzendichte und die Höhe der F2-Schicht sowie die Steigung und der Achsenabschnitt des linearen Trends der Skalenhöhe, die mit Hilfe von neuronalen Feedforward-Netzwerken (NN) modelliert wurden. Das Modell wurde sowohl anhand von RO- als auch von In-situ-Beobachtungen umfassend validiert und übertrifft das Modell der Internationalen Referenz-Ionosphäre (IRI). Unsere Analyse zeigte, dass die größten Abweichungen des IRI-Modells von den Daten in Höhen von 100-200 km über der F2-Schichtspitze auftreten. Das entwickelte NN-basierte Ionosphärenmodell reproduziert die Auswirkungen verschiedener physikalischer Mechanismen, die in der Topside-Ionosphäre beobachtet werden, und liefert sehr genaue Vorhersagen der Elektronendichte. Diese Dissertation bietet eine umfassende Untersuchung der Dynamik in der Geosphäre, und die wichtigsten Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit tragen zur Verbesserung der Modelle von Plasmapopulationen in der erdnahen Weltraumumgebung bei. KW - Ionosphere KW - radiation belts KW - ring current KW - space physics KW - empirical modeling KW - machine learning KW - gradient boosting KW - neural networks KW - Ionosphäre KW - empirische Modellierung KW - Gradient Boosting KW - maschinelles Lernen KW - neuronale Netze KW - Strahlungsgürtel KW - Ringstrom KW - Weltraumphysik Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-613711 ER -