TY - JOUR A1 - Foster, Mary Grace A1 - Poppenhäger, Katja A1 - Ilić Petković, Nikoleta A1 - Schwope, Axel T1 - Exoplanet X-ray irradiation and evaporation rates with eROSITA JF - Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal N2 - High-energy irradiation is a driver for atmospheric evaporation and mass loss in exoplanets. This work is based on data from eROSITA, the soft X-ray instrument on board the Spectrum Roentgen Gamma mission, as well as on archival data from other missions. We aim to characterise the high-energy environment of known exoplanets and estimate their mass-loss rates. We use X-ray source catalogues from eROSITA, XMM-Newton, Chandra, and ROSAT to derive X-ray luminosities of exoplanet host stars in the 0.2–2 keV energy band with an underlying coronal, that is, optically thin thermal spectrum. We present a catalogue of stellar X-ray and EUV luminosities, exoplanetary X-ray and EUV irradiation fluxes, and estimated mass-loss rates for a total of 287 exoplanets, 96 of which are characterised for the first time based on new eROSITA detections. We identify 14 first-time X-ray detections of transiting exoplanets that are subject to irradiation levels known to cause observable evaporation signatures in other exoplanets. This makes them suitable targets for follow-up observations. KW - stars: coronae KW - stars: activity KW - planet-star interactions KW - planets and KW - satellites: atmospheres KW - X-rays: stars Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202141097 SN - 0004-6361 SN - 1432-0746 VL - 661 PB - EDP Sciences CY - Les Ulis ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ye, Fangyuan A1 - Zhang, Shuo A1 - Warby, Jonathan A1 - Wu, Jiawei A1 - Gutierrez-Partida, Emilio A1 - Lang, Felix A1 - Shah, Sahil A1 - Saglamkaya, Elifnaz A1 - Sun, Bowen A1 - Zu, Fengshuo A1 - Shoai, Safa A1 - Wang, Haifeng A1 - Stiller, Burkhard A1 - Neher, Dieter A1 - Zhu, Wei-Hong A1 - Stolterfoht, Martin A1 - Wu, Yongzhen T1 - Overcoming C₆₀-induced interfacial recombination in inverted perovskite solar cells by electron-transporting carborane JF - Nature Communications N2 - Inverted perovskite solar cells still suffer from significant non-radiative recombination losses at the perovskite surface and across the perovskite/C₆₀ interface, limiting the future development of perovskite-based single- and multi-junction photovoltaics. Therefore, more effective inter- or transport layers are urgently required. To tackle these recombination losses, we introduce ortho-carborane as an interlayer material that has a spherical molecular structure and a three-dimensional aromaticity. Based on a variety of experimental techniques, we show that ortho-carborane decorated with phenylamino groups effectively passivates the perovskite surface and essentially eliminates the non-radiative recombination loss across the perovskite/C₆₀ interface with high thermal stability. We further demonstrate the potential of carborane as an electron transport material, facilitating electron extraction while blocking holes from the interface. The resulting inverted perovskite solar cells deliver a power conversion efficiency of over 23% with a low non-radiative voltage loss of 110 mV, and retain >97% of the initial efficiency after 400 h of maximum power point tracking. Overall, the designed carborane based interlayer simultaneously enables passivation, electron-transport and hole-blocking and paves the way toward more efficient and stable perovskite solar cells. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34203-x SN - 2041-1723 VL - 13 IS - 1 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Omel'chenko, Oleh A1 - Ocampo-Espindola, Jorge Luis A1 - Kiss, István Z. T1 - Asymmetry-induced isolated fully synchronized state in coupled oscillator populations JF - Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics N2 - A symmetry-breaking mechanism is investigated that creates bistability between fully and partially synchronized states in oscillator networks. Two populations of oscillators with unimodal frequency distribution and different amplitudes, in the presence of weak global coupling, are shown to simplify to a modular network with asymmetrical coupling. With increasing the coupling strength, a synchronization transition is observed with an isolated fully synchronized state. The results are interpreted theoretically in the thermodynamic limit and confirmed in experiments with chemical oscillators. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.104.L022202 SN - 2470-0045 SN - 2470-0053 VL - 104 IS - 2 PB - American Physical Society CY - Melville, NY ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Meyer, Dominique M.-A. A1 - Pohl, Martin A1 - Petrov, Miroslav A1 - Egberts, Kathrin T1 - Mixing of materials in magnetized core-collapse supernova remnants JF - Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society N2 - Core-collapse supernova remnants are structures of the interstellar medium (ISM) left behind the explosive death of most massive stars ( ?40 M-?). Since they result in the expansion of the supernova shock wave into the gaseous environment shaped by the star's wind history, their morphology constitutes an insight into the past evolution of their progenitor star. Particularly, fast-mo ving massiv e stars can produce asymmetric core-collapse superno va remnants. We inv estigate the mixing of materials in core-collapse supernova remnants generated by a moving massive 35 M-? star, in a magnetized ISM. Stellar rotation and the wind magnetic field are time-dependently included into the models which follow the entire evolution of the stellar surroundings from the zero-age main-sequence to 80 kyr after the supernova explosion. It is found that very little main-sequence material is present in remnants from moving stars, that the Wolf-Rayet wind mixes very efficiently within the 10 kyr after the explosion, while the red supergiant material is still unmixed by 30 per cent within 50 kyr after the supernova. Our results indicate that the faster the stellar motion, the more complex the internal organization of the supernova remnant and the more ef fecti ve the mixing of ejecta therein. In contrast, the mixing of stellar wind material is only weakly affected by progenitor motion, if at all. KW - ISM : supernova remnants KW - (magnetohydrodynamics) MHD KW - stars evolution KW - stars: massive Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stad906 SN - 0035-8711 SN - 1365-2966 VL - 521 IS - 4 SP - 5354 EP - 5371 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Davidsen, Joern A1 - Kwiatek, Grzegorz A1 - Charalampidou, Elli-Maria A1 - Goebel, Thomas H. W. A1 - Stanchits, Sergei A1 - Rueck, Marc A1 - Dresen, Georg T1 - Triggering Processes in Rock Fracture JF - Physical review letters N2 - We study triggering processes in triaxial compression experiments under a constant displacement rate on sandstone and granite samples using spatially located acoustic emission events and their focal mechanisms. We present strong evidence that event-event triggering plays an important role in the presence of large-scale or macrocopic imperfections, while such triggering is basically absent if no significant imperfections are present. In the former case, we recover all established empirical relations of aftershock seismicity including the Gutenberg-Richter relation, a modified version of the Omori-Utsu relation and the productivity relation-despite the fact that the activity is dominated by compaction-type events and triggering cascades have a swarmlike topology. For the Gutenberg-Richter relations, we find that the b value is smaller for triggered events compared to background events. Moreover, we show that triggered acoustic emission events have a focal mechanism much more similar to their associated trigger than expected by chance. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.119.068501 SN - 0031-9007 SN - 1079-7114 VL - 119 PB - American Physical Society CY - College Park ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. A1 - Ashby, Ben A1 - Fearon, Elizabeth A1 - Overton, Christopher E. A1 - Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina A1 - Pellis, Lorenzo A1 - Quaife, Matthew A1 - Rozhnova, Ganna A1 - Scarabel, Francesca A1 - Stage, Helena B. A1 - Swallow, Ben A1 - Thompson, Robin N. A1 - Tildesley, Michael J. A1 - Villela, Daniel Campos T1 - Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics JF - Epidemics N2 - Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers. KW - Mathematical models KW - Pandemics KW - Pharmaceutical interventions KW - Non-pharmaceutical interventions KW - Policy support Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100546 SN - 1755-4365 SN - 1878-0067 VL - 38 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - THES A1 - Damseaux, Adrien T1 - Improving permafrost dynamics in land surface models: insights from dual sensitivity experiments T1 - Verbesserung der Permafrostdynamik in Landoberflächenmodellen: Erkenntnisse aus doppelten Sensitivitätsexperimenten N2 - The thawing of permafrost and the subsequent release of greenhouse gases constitute one of the most significant and uncertain positive feedback loops in the context of climate change, making predictions regarding changes in permafrost coverage of paramount importance. To address these critical questions, climate scientists have developed Land Surface Models (LSMs) that encompass a multitude of physical soil processes. This thesis is committed to advancing our understanding and refining precise representations of permafrost dynamics within LSMs, with a specific focus on the accurate modeling of heat fluxes, an essential component for simulating permafrost physics. The first research question overviews fundamental model prerequisites for the representation of permafrost soils within land surface modeling. It includes a first-of-its-kind comparison between LSMs in CMIP6 to reveal their differences and shortcomings in key permafrost physics parameters. Overall, each of these LSMs represents a unique approach to simulating soil processes and their interactions with the climate system. Choosing the most appropriate model for a particular application depends on factors such as the spatial and temporal scale of the simulation, the specific research question, and available computational resources. The second research question evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Community Land Model (CLM5) in simulating Arctic permafrost regions. Our approach overcomes traditional evaluation limitations by individually addressing depth, seasonality, and regional variations, providing a comprehensive assessment of permafrost and soil temperature dynamics. I compare CLM5's results with three extensive datasets: (1) soil temperatures from 295 borehole stations, (2) active layer thickness (ALT) data from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network (CALM), and (3) soil temperatures, ALT, and permafrost extent from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI). The results show that CLM5 aligns well with ESA-CCI and CALM for permafrost extent and ALT but reveals a significant global cold temperature bias, notably over Siberia. These results echo a persistent challenge identified in numerous studies: the existence of a systematic 'cold bias' in soil temperature over permafrost regions. To address this challenge, the following research questions propose dual sensitivity experiments. The third research question represents the first study to apply a Plant Functional Type (PFT)-based approach to derive soil texture and soil organic matter (SOM), departing from the conventional use of coarse-resolution global data in LSMs. This novel method results in a more uniform distribution of soil organic matter density (OMD) across the domain, characterized by reduced OMD values in most regions. However, changes in soil texture exhibit a more intricate spatial pattern. Comparing the results to observations reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias observed in the control run. This method shows noticeable improvements in permafrost extent, but at the cost of an overestimation in ALT. These findings emphasize the model's high sensitivity to variations in soil texture and SOM content, highlighting the crucial role of soil composition in governing heat transfer processes and shaping the seasonal variation of soil temperatures in permafrost regions. Expanding upon a site experiment conducted in Trail Valley Creek by \citet{dutch_impact_2022}, the fourth research question extends the application of the snow scheme proposed by \citet{sturm_thermal_1997} to cover the entire Arctic domain. By employing a snow scheme better suited to the snow density profile observed over permafrost regions, this thesis seeks to assess its influence on simulated soil temperatures. Comparing this method to observational datasets reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias that was present in the control run. In most regions, the Sturm run exhibits a substantial decrease in the cold bias. However, there is a distinctive overshoot with a warm bias observed in mountainous areas. The Sturm experiment effectively addressed the overestimation of permafrost extent in the control run, albeit resulting in a substantial reduction in permafrost extent over mountainous areas. ALT results remain relatively consistent compared to the control run. These outcomes align with our initial hypothesis, which anticipated that the reduced snow insulation in the Sturm run would lead to higher winter soil temperatures and a more accurate representation of permafrost physics. In summary, this thesis demonstrates significant advancements in understanding permafrost dynamics and its integration into LSMs. It has meticulously unraveled the intricacies involved in the interplay between heat transfer, soil properties, and snow dynamics in permafrost regions. These insights offer novel perspectives on model representation and performance. N2 - Das Auftauen von Permafrost und die anschließende Freisetzung von Treibhausgasen stellen eine der bedeutendsten und unsichersten positiven Rückkopplungsschleifen im Kontext des Klimawandels dar, was Vorhersagen über Veränderungen der Permafrostverbreitung von größter Bedeutung macht. Um diese kritischen Fragen zu adressieren, haben Klimawissenschaftler Landoberflächenmodelle (LSMs) entwickelt, die eine Vielzahl physikalischer Bodenprozesse umfassen. Diese Dissertation widmet sich der Vertiefung unseres Verständnisses und der Verfeinerung präziser Darstellungen der Permafrostdynamik innerhalb von LSMs, mit einem besonderen Fokus auf die genaue Modellierung von Wärmeflüssen, einem wesentlichen Bestandteil der Simulation von Permafrostphysik. Die erste Forschungsfrage gibt einen Überblick über grundlegende Modellanforderungen für die Darstellung von Permafrostböden innerhalb der Landoberflächenmodellierung. Sie beinhaltet einen erstmaligen Vergleich zwischen LSMs im Rahmen von CMIP6, um deren Unterschiede und Schwächen in den Schlüsselparametern der Permafrostphysik aufzuzeigen. Insgesamt repräsentiert jedes dieser LSMs einen einzigartigen Ansatz zur Simulation von Bodenprozessen und deren Wechselwirkungen mit dem Klimasystem. Die Wahl des am besten geeigneten Modells für eine bestimmte Anwendung hängt von Faktoren wie dem räumlichen und zeitlichen Maßstab der Simulation, der spezifischen Forschungsfrage und den verfügbaren Rechenressourcen ab. Die zweite Forschungsfrage bewertet die Leistungsfähigkeit des hochmodernen Community Land Model (CLM5) bei der Simulation arktischer Permafrostregionen. Unser Ansatz überwindet traditionelle Evaluationsbeschränkungen, indem er Tiefe, Saisonalität und regionale Variationen einzeln berücksichtigt und eine umfassende Bewertung der Permafrost- und Bodentemperaturdynamik liefert. Ich vergleiche die Ergebnisse von CLM5 mit drei umfangreichen Datensätzen: (1) Bodentemperaturen von 295 Bohrlochstationen, (2) Daten zur aktiven Schichtdicke (ALT) aus dem Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network (CALM) und (3) Bodentemperaturen, ALT und Permafrostausdehnung aus der ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass CLM5 gut mit ESA-CCI und CALM für Permafrostausdehnung und ALT übereinstimmt, jedoch eine signifikante globale kalte Temperaturabweichung aufweist, insbesondere über Sibirien. Diese Ergebnisse spiegeln eine anhaltende Herausforderung wider, die in zahlreichen Studien identifiziert wurde: das Vorhandensein einer systematischen "kalten Abweichung" bei Bodentemperaturen in Permafrostregionen. Um diese Herausforderung anzugehen, schlagen die folgenden Forschungsfragen duale Sensitivitätsexperimente vor. Die dritte Forschungsfrage stellt die erste Studie dar, die einen pflanzenfunktionstypbasierten Ansatz (PFT) zur Ableitung von Bodentextur und organischer Bodensubstanz (SOM) anwendet und sich von der herkömmlichen Verwendung grob aufgelöster globaler Daten in LSMs abwendet. Diese neuartige Methode führt zu einer gleichmäßigeren Verteilung der Dichte organischer Bodensubstanz (OMD) im gesamten Bereich, gekennzeichnet durch geringere OMD-Werte in den meisten Regionen. Veränderungen in der Bodentextur zeigen jedoch ein komplexeres räumliches Muster. Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse mit Beobachtungen zeigt eine signifikante Reduzierung der kalten Abweichung, die im Kontrolllauf beobachtet wurde. Diese Methode zeigt bemerkenswerte Verbesserungen in der Permafrostausdehnung, jedoch auf Kosten einer Überschätzung der ALT. Diese Ergebnisse unterstreichen die hohe Empfindlichkeit des Modells gegenüber Variationen in der Bodentextur und dem SOM-Gehalt und heben die entscheidende Rolle der Bodenbeschaffenheit bei der Steuerung der Wärmeübertragungsprozesse und der saisonalen Variation der Bodentemperaturen in Permafrostregionen hervor. Aufbauend auf einem Standortexperiment im Trail Valley Creek von Dutch et al. (2022) erweitert die vierte Forschungsfrage die Anwendung des von Sturm et al. (1997) vorgeschlagenen Schneeschemas auf das gesamte arktische Gebiet. Durch die Anwendung eines Schneeschemas, das besser zu dem in Permafrostregionen beobachteten Schneedichteprofil passt, versucht diese Dissertation, dessen Einfluss auf die simulierten Bodentemperaturen zu bewerten. Der Vergleich dieser Methode mit Beobachtungsdatensätzen zeigt eine signifikante Reduzierung der kalten Abweichung, die im Kontrolllauf vorhanden war. In den meisten Regionen weist der Sturm-Lauf eine erhebliche Verringerung der kalten Abweichung auf. Es gibt jedoch eine deutliche Überschreitung mit einer warmen Abweichung in Bergregionen. Das Sturm-Experiment hat die Überschätzung der Permafrostausdehnung im Kontrolllauf wirksam angegangen, was jedoch zu einer erheblichen Reduzierung der Permafrostausdehnung in Bergregionen führte. Die ALT-Ergebnisse bleiben im Vergleich zum Kontrolllauf relativ konsistent. Diese Ergebnisse entsprechen unserer ursprünglichen Hypothese, die erwartete, dass die reduzierte Schneedecke im Sturm-Lauf zu höheren Winterbodentemperaturen und einer genaueren Darstellung der Permafrostphysik führen würde. Zusammenfassend zeigt diese Dissertation bedeutende Fortschritte im Verständnis der Permafrostdynamik und deren Integration in LSMs. Sie hat die Komplexität der Wechselwirkungen zwischen Wärmeübertragung, Bodeneigenschaften und Schneedynamik in Permafrostregionen sorgfältig entschlüsselt. Diese Erkenntnisse bieten neue Perspektiven auf die Modellierung und Leistung von Modellen. KW - snow thermal conductivity KW - soil organic matter KW - model validation KW - Modellvalidierung KW - Wärmeleitfähigkeit von Schnee KW - organische Bodensubstanz Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-639450 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Huth, Sabrina A1 - Pang, Peter Tsun Ho A1 - Tews, Ingo A1 - Dietrich, Tim A1 - Le Fèvre, Arnaud A1 - Schwenk, Achim A1 - Trautmann, Wolfgang A1 - Agarwal, Kshitij A1 - Bulla, Mattia A1 - Coughlin, Michael W. A1 - Van den Broeck, Chris T1 - Constraining neutron-star matter with microscopic and macroscopic collisions JF - Nature : the international weekly journal of science N2 - Interpreting high-energy, astrophysical phenomena, such as supernova explosions or neutron-star collisions, requires a robust understanding of matter at supranuclear densities. However, our knowledge about dense matter explored in the cores of neutron stars remains limited. Fortunately, dense matter is not probed only in astrophysical observations, but also in terrestrial heavy-ion collision experiments. Here we use Bayesian inference to combine data from astrophysical multi-messenger observations of neutron stars(1-9) and from heavy-ion collisions of gold nuclei at relativistic energies(10,11) with microscopic nuclear theory calculations(12-17) to improve our understanding of dense matter. We find that the inclusion of heavy-ion collision data indicates an increase in the pressure in dense matter relative to previous analyses, shifting neutron-star radii towards larger values, consistent with recent observations by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer mission(5-8,18). Our findings show that constraints from heavy-ion collision experiments show a remarkable consistency with multi-messenger observations and provide complementary information on nuclear matter at intermediate densities. This work combines nuclear theory, nuclear experiment and astrophysical observations, and shows how joint analyses can shed light on the properties of neutron-rich supranuclear matter over the density range probed in neutron stars. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04750-w SN - 0028-0836 SN - 1476-4687 VL - 606 IS - 7913 SP - 276 EP - 295 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London [u.a.] ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pang, Peter Tsun Ho A1 - Dietrich, Tim A1 - Tews, Ingo A1 - Van Den Broeck, Chris T1 - Parameter estimation for strong phase transitions in supranuclear matter using gravitational-wave astronomy JF - Physical review research N2 - At supranuclear densities, explored in the core of neutron stars, a strong phase transition from hadronic matter to more exotic forms of matter might be present. To test this hypothesis, binary neutron-star mergers offer a unique possibility to probe matter at densities that we cannot create in any existing terrestrial experiment. In this work, we show that, if present, strong phase transitions can have a measurable imprint on the binary neutron-star coalescence and the emitted gravitational-wave signal. We construct a new parametrization of the supranuclear equation of state that allows us to test for the existence of a strong phase transition and extract its characteristic properties purely from the gravitational-wave signal of the inspiraling neutron stars. We test our approach using a Bayesian inference study simulating 600 signals with three different equations of state and find that for current gravitational-wave detector networks already 12 events might be sufficient to verify the presence of a strong phase transition. Finally, we use our methodology to analyze GW170817 and GW190425 but do not find any indication that a strong phase transition is present at densities probed during the inspiral. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.2.033514 SN - 2643-1564 VL - 2 IS - 3 PB - American Physical Society CY - College Park ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kunert, Nina A1 - Pang, Peter T. H. A1 - Tews, Ingo A1 - Coughlin, Michael W. A1 - Dietrich, Tim T1 - Quantifying modeling uncertainties when combining multiple gravitational-wave detections from binary neutron star sources JF - Physical review D N2 - With the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to 1250 m (2% at 90% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.105.L061301 SN - 2470-0010 SN - 2470-0029 VL - 105 IS - 6 PB - American Physical Society CY - College Park ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bulla, Mattia A1 - Coughlin, Michael W. A1 - Dhawan, Suhail A1 - Dietrich, Tim T1 - Multi-messenger constraints on the Hubble constant through combination of gravitational waves, gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae from neutron star mergers JF - Universe : open access journal N2 - The simultaneous detection of gravitational waves and light from the binary neutron star merger GW170817 led to independent measurements of distance and redshift, providing a direct estimate of the Hubble constant H-0 that does not rely on a cosmic distance ladder, nor assumes a specific cosmological model. By using gravitational waves as "standard sirens", this approach holds promise to arbitrate the existing tension between the H-0 value inferred from the cosmic microwave background and those obtained from local measurements. However, the known degeneracy in the gravitational-wave analysis between distance and inclination of the source led to a H-0 value from GW170817 that was not precise enough to resolve the existing tension. In this review, we summarize recent works exploiting the viewing-angle dependence of the electromagnetic signal, namely the associated short gamma-ray burst and kilonova, to constrain the system inclination and improve on H-0. We outline the key ingredients of the different methods, summarize the results obtained in the aftermath of GW170817 and discuss the possible systematics introduced by each of these methods. KW - gravitational waves KW - stars: neutron KW - stars: binaries KW - cosmology: cosmological parameters KW - cosmology: distance scale KW - cosmology: cosmic background radiation Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/universe8050289 SN - 2218-1997 VL - 8 IS - 5 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Anders, Friedrich A1 - Khalatyan, Arman A1 - Queiroz, Anna B. A. A1 - Chiappini, Cristina A1 - Ardèvol, Judith A1 - Casamiquela, Laia A1 - Figueras, Francesca A1 - Jiménez-Arranz, Óscar A1 - Jordi, Carme A1 - Monguio, Maria A1 - Romero-Gómez, Merce A1 - Altamirano, Diego A1 - Antoja, Teresa A1 - Assaad, R. A1 - Cantat-Gaudin, Tristan A1 - Castro-Ginard, Alfred A1 - Enke, Harry A1 - Girardi, Léo A1 - Guiglion, Guillaume A1 - Khan, Saniya A1 - Luri, Xavier A1 - Miglio, Andrea A1 - Minchev, Ivan A1 - Ramos, Pau A1 - Santiago, Basillio Xavier A1 - Steinmetz, Matthias T1 - Photo-astrometric distances, extinctions, and astrophysical parameters for Gaia EDR3 stars brighter than G=18.5 JF - Astronomy and astrophysics N2 - We present a catalogue of 362 million stellar parameters, distances, and extinctions derived from Gaia's Early Data Release (EDR3) cross-matched with the photometric catalogues of Pan-STARRS1, SkyMapper, 2MASS, and All WISE. The higher precision of the Gaia EDR3 data, combined with the broad wavelength coverage of the additional photometric surveys and the new stellar-density priors of the StarHorse code, allows us to substantially improve the accuracy and precision over previous photo-astrometric stellar-parameter estimates. At magnitude G = 14 (17), our typical precisions amount to 3% (15%) in distance, 0.13 mag (0.15 mag) in V-band extinction, and 140 K (180 K) in effective temperature. Our results are validated by comparisons with open clusters, as well as with asteroseismic and spectroscopic measurements, indicating systematic errors smaller than the nominal uncertainties for the vast majority of objects. We also provide distance- and extinction-corrected colour-magnitude diagrams, extinction maps, and extensive stellar density maps that reveal detailed substructures in the Milky Way and beyond. The new density maps now probe a much greater volume, extending to regions beyond the Galactic bar and to Local Group galaxies, with a larger total number density. We publish our results through an ADQL query interface (gaia . aip . de) as well as via tables containing approximations of the full posterior distributions. Our multi-wavelength approach and the deep magnitude limit render our results useful also beyond the next Gaia release, DR3. KW - stars: distances KW - stars: fundamental parameters KW - Galaxy: general KW - Galaxy: stellar content KW - Galaxy: structure Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202142369 SN - 0004-6361 SN - 1432-0746 VL - 658 PB - EDP Sciences CY - Les Ulis ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Keles, Engin A1 - Mallonn, Matthias A1 - Kitzmann, Daniel A1 - Poppenhäger, Katja A1 - Hoeijmakers, H. Jens A1 - Ilyin, Ilya A1 - Alexoudi, Xanthippi A1 - Carroll, Thorsten A. A1 - Alvarado-Gomez, Julian A1 - Ketzer, Laura A1 - Bonomo, Aldo S. A1 - Borsa, Francesco A1 - Gaudi, B. Scott A1 - Henning, Thomas A1 - Malavolta, Luca A1 - Molaverdikhani, Karan A1 - Nascimbeni, Valerio A1 - Patience, Jennifer A1 - Pino, Lorenzo A1 - Scandariato, Gaetano A1 - Schlawin, Everett A1 - Shkolnik, Evgenya A1 - Sicilia, Daniela A1 - Sozzetti, Alessandro A1 - Foster, Mary G. A1 - Veillet, Christian A1 - Wang, Ji A1 - Yan, Fei A1 - Strassmeier, Klaus G. T1 - The PEPSI exoplanet transit survey (PETS) I: Investigating the presence of a silicate atmosphere on the super-earth 55 Cnc e JF - Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society N2 - The study of exoplanets and especially their atmospheres can reveal key insights on their evolution by identifying specific atmospheric species. For such atmospheric investigations, high-resolution transmission spectroscopy has shown great success, especially for Jupiter-type planets. Towards the atmospheric characterization of smaller planets, the super-Earth exoplanet 55 Cnc e is one of the most promising terrestrial exoplanets studied to date. Here, we present a high-resolution spectroscopic transit observation of this planet, acquired with the PEPSI instrument at the Large Binocular Telescope. Assuming the presence of Earth-like crust species on the surface of 55 Cnc e, from which a possible silicate-vapor atmosphere could have originated, we search in its transmission spectrum for absorption of various atomic and ionized species such as Fe , Fe (+), Ca , Ca (+), Mg, and K , among others. Not finding absorption for any of the investigated species, we are able to set absorption limits with a median value of 1.9 x R-P. In conclusion, we do not find evidence of a widely extended silicate envelope on this super-Earth reaching several planetary radii. KW - planets and satellites: atmospheres KW - planets and satellites: composition Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac810 SN - 0035-8711 SN - 1365-2966 VL - 513 IS - 1 SP - 1544 EP - 1556 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kramer, Koen A1 - Bouriaud, Laura A1 - Feindt, Peter H. A1 - van Wassenaer, Lan A1 - Glanemann, Nicole A1 - Hanewinkel, Marc A1 - van der Heide, Martijn A1 - Hengeveld, Geerten M. A1 - Hoogstra, Marjanke A1 - Ingram, Verina A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Lindner, Marcus A1 - Mátyás, Csaba A1 - Mohren, Frits A1 - Muys, Bart A1 - Nabuurs, Gert-Jan A1 - Palahi, Marc A1 - Polman, Nico A1 - Reyer, Christopher P. O. A1 - Schulze, Ernst-Detlef A1 - Seidl, Rupert A1 - de Vries, Wim A1 - Werners, Saskia E. A1 - Winkel, Georg A1 - Yousefpour, Rasoul T1 - Perspective Roadmap to develop a stress test for forest ecosystem services supply JF - One Earth N2 - Forests play a key role in a bio-based economy by providing renewable materials, mitigating climate change, and accommodating biodiversity. However, forests experience massive increases in stresses in their ecological and socioeconomic environments, threatening forest ecosystem services supply. Alleviating those stresses is hampered by conflicting and disconnected governance arrangements, competing interests and claims, and rapid changes in technology and social demands. Identifying which stresses threaten forest ecosystem services supply and which factors hamper their alleviation requires stakeholders' perceptions. Stakeholder-oriented stress tests for the supply of forest ecosystem services are therefore necessary but are not yet available. This perspective presents a roadmap to develop a stress test tailored to multiple stakeholders' needs and demands across spatial scales. We provide the Cascade and Resilience Rosetta, with accompanying performance- and resilience indicators, as tools to facilitate development of the stress test. The application of the stress test will facilitate the transition toward a bio-based economy in which healthy and diverse forests provide sustainable and resilient ecosystem services. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.009 SN - 2590-3330 SN - 2590-3322 VL - 5 IS - 1 SP - 25 EP - 34 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Damle, Mitali A1 - Sparre, Martin A1 - Richter, Philipp A1 - Hani, Maan H. A1 - Nuza, Sebastian A1 - Pfrommer, Christoph A1 - Grand, Robert J. J. A1 - Hoffman, Yehuda A1 - Libeskind, Noam A1 - Sorce, Jenny A1 - Steinmetz, Mathias A1 - Tempel, Elmo A1 - Vogelsberger, Mark A1 - Wang, Peng T1 - Cold and hot gas distribution around the Milky-Way – M31 system in the HESTIA simulations JF - Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society N2 - Recent observations have revealed remarkable insights into the gas reservoir in the circumgalactic medium (CGM) of galaxy haloes. In this paper, we characterise the gas in the vicinity of Milky Way and Andromeda analogues in the hestia (High resolution Environmental Simulations of The Immediate Area) suite of constrained Local Group (LG) simulations. The hestia suite comprise of a set of three high-resolution arepo-based simulations of the LG, run using the Auriga galaxy formation model. For this paper, we focus only on the 𝑧 = 0 simulation datasets and generate mock skymaps along with a power spectrum analysis to show that the distributions of ions tracing low-temperature gas (H i and Si iii) are more clumpy in comparison to warmer gas tracers (O vi, O vii and O viii). We compare to the spectroscopic CGM observations of M31 and low-redshift galaxies. hestia under-produces the column densities of the M31 observations, but the simulations are consistent with the observations of low-redshift galaxies. A possible explanation for these findings is that the spectroscopic observations of M31 are contaminated by gas residing in the CGM of the Milky Way. KW - software: data analysis KW - software: simulations KW - Galaxy: evolution KW - galaxies: evolution KW - galaxies: Local Group Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac663 SN - 0035-8711 SN - 1365-2966 VL - 512 SP - 3717 EP - 3737 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - GEN A1 - Ciemer, Catrin A1 - Rehm, Lars A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Donner, Reik Volker A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Boers, Niklas T1 - An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1207 KW - complex networks KW - droughts KW - prediction KW - Amazon rainforest Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525863 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 9 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Martin, Maria A. A1 - Frieler, Katja T1 - Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall JF - Nature : the international weekly journal of science N2 - Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise(1), but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss(2,3) and ocean expansion(4). Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall(5), but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica(1,6) and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model(7) forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11616 SN - 0028-0836 VL - 492 IS - 7428 SP - 239 EP - + PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - THES A1 - Schlemm, Tanja T1 - The marine ice cliff instability of the Antarctic ice sheet T1 - Die marine Eisklippeninstabilität des antarktischen Eisschildes BT - a theory of mélange-buttressed cliff calving and its application in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model BT - eine Theorie des Mélange-gebremsten Klippenkalbens und ihre Anwendung im Parallel Ice Sheet Model N2 - The Antarctic ice sheet is the largest freshwater reservoir worldwide. If it were to melt completely, global sea levels would rise by about 58 m. Calculation of projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise under global warming conditions is an ongoing effort which yields large ranges in predictions. Among the reasons for this are uncertainties related to the physics of ice sheet modeling. These uncertainties include two processes that could lead to runaway ice retreat: the Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), which causes rapid grounding line retreat on retrograde bedrock, and the Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI), in which tall ice cliffs become unstable and calve off, exposing even taller ice cliffs. In my thesis, I investigated both marine instabilities (MISI and MICI) using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), with a focus on MICI. N2 - Der antarktische Eisschild ist das größte Süßwasserreservoir der Welt. Würde er vollständig schmelzen, würde der globale Meeresspiegel um etwa 58 m ansteigen. Die Ermittlung von Prognosen über den Beitrag der Antarktis zum Anstieg des Meeresspiegels infolge der globalen Erwärmung ist ein fortlaufender Prozess, der große Unterschiede in den Vorhersagen zur Folge hat. Einer der Gründe dafür sind Ungewissheiten im Zusammenhang mit der Physik der Eisschildmodellierung. Zu diesen Unsicherheiten gehören zwei Prozesse, die zu einem unkontrollierten Eisrückzug führen könnten: die Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), die zu einem schnellen Rückzug der Grundlinie auf rückläufigem Grundgestein führt, und die Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI), bei der hohe Eisklippen instabil werden und abkalben, wodurch noch höhere Eisklippen freigelegt werden. In meiner Dissertation untersuchte ich beide marinen Instabilitäten (MISI und MICI) mit Hilfe des Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), wobei der Schwerpunkt auf MICI lag. KW - Antarctica KW - ice sheet modelling KW - iceberg calving KW - Antarktis KW - Eisschildmodellierung KW - Eisbergkalbung Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-586333 ER - TY - THES A1 - Kuhla, Kilian T1 - Impact, distribution, and adaptation T1 - Auswirkung, Verteilung und Anpassung BT - how weather extremes threaten the economic network BT - wie Wetterextreme das ökonomische Netzwerk bedrohen N2 - Weather extremes pose a persistent threat to society on multiple layers. Besides an average of ~37,000 deaths per year, climate-related disasters cause destroyed properties and impaired economic activities, eroding people's livelihoods and prosperity. While global temperature rises – caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions – the direct impacts of climatic extreme events increase and will further intensify without proper adaptation measures. Additionally, weather extremes do not only have local direct effects. Resulting economic repercussions can propagate either upstream or downstream along trade chains causing indirect effects. One approach to analyze these indirect effects within the complex global supply network is the agent-based model Acclimate. Using and extending this loss-propagation model, I focus in this thesis on three aspects of the relation between weather extremes and economic repercussions. First, extreme weather events cause direct impacts on local economic performance. I compute daily local direct output loss time series of heat stress, river floods, tropical cyclones, and their consecutive occurrence using (near-future) climate projection ensembles. These regional impacts are estimated based on physical drivers and local productivity distribution. Direct effects of the aforementioned disaster categories are widely heterogeneous concerning regional and temporal distribution. As well, their intensity changes differently under future warming. Focusing on the hurricane-impacted capital, I find that long-term growth losses increase with higher heterogeneity of a shock ensemble. Second, repercussions are sectorally and regionally distributed via economic ripples within the trading network, causing higher-order effects. I use Acclimate to identify three phases of those economic ripples. Furthermore, I compute indirect impacts and analyze overall regional and global production and consumption changes. Regarding heat stress, global consumer losses double while direct output losses increase by a factor 1.5 between 2000 – 2039. In my research I identify the effect of economic ripple resonance and introduce it to climate impact research. This effect occurs if economic ripples of consecutive disasters overlap, which increases economic responses such as an enhancement of consumption losses. These loss enhancements can even be more amplified with increasing direct output losses, e.g. caused by climate crises. Transport disruptions can cause economic repercussions as well. For this, I extend the model Acclimate with a geographical transportation route and expand the decision horizon of economic agents. Using this, I show that policy-induced sudden trade restrictions (e.g. a no-deal Brexit) can significantly reduce the longer-term economic prosperity of affected regions. Analyses of transportation disruptions in typhoon seasons indicate that severely affected regions must reduce production as demand falls during a storm. Substituting suppliers may compensate for fluctuations at the beginning of the storm, which fails for prolonged disruptions. Third, possible coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies arise from direct and indirect economic responses to weather extremes. Analyzing annual trade changes due to typhoon-induced transport disruptions depict that overall exports rise. This trade resilience increases with higher network node diversification. Further, my research shows that a basic insurance scheme may diminish hurricane-induced long-term growth losses due to faster reconstruction in disasters aftermaths. I find that insurance coverage could be an economically reasonable coping scheme towards higher losses caused by the climate crisis. Indirect effects within the global economic network from weather extremes indicate further adaptation possibilities. For one, diversifying linkages reduce the hazard of sharp price increases. Next to this, close economic interconnections with regions that do not share the same extreme weather season can be economically beneficial in the medium run. Furthermore, economic ripple resonance effects should be considered while computing costs. Overall, an increase in local adaptation measures reduces economic ripples within the trade network and possible losses elsewhere. In conclusion, adaptation measures are necessary and potential present, but it seems rather not possible to avoid all direct or indirect losses. As I show in this thesis, dynamical modeling gives valuable insights into how direct and indirect economic impacts arise from different categories of weather extremes. Further, it highlights the importance of resolving individual extremes and reflecting amplifying effects caused by incomplete recovery or consecutive disasters. N2 - Wetterextreme stellen für die Gesellschaft eine anhaltende Bedrohung auf mehreren Ebenen dar. Neben durchschnittlich ~37.000 Todesfällen pro Jahr verursachen meteorologische Katastrophen Eigentumsschäden und Wirtschaftsbeeinträchtigungen, wodurch die Lebensgrundlagen und der Wohlstand der Menschen untergraben werden. Während die globale Temperatur – verursacht durch anthropogene Treibhausgasemissionen – ansteigt, nehmen die direkten Auswirkungen klimatischer Extremereignisse zu und werden sich ohne geeignete Anpassungsmaßnahmen weiter verstärken. Hinzu kommt, dass Wetterextreme nicht nur lokal direkte Schäden anrichten, sondern sich wetterbedingte wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen auch entlang der Handelsketten ausbreiten und so indirekte Effekte nach sich ziehen. Ein Ansatz zur Analyse dieser indirekten Auswirkungen innerhalb des komplexen globalen Versorgungsnetzes ist das agentenbasierte Modell Acclimate. In meiner Dissertation verwende und erweitere ich dieses Schadenspropagationsmodell, um drei Aspekte der Beziehung zwischen Wetterextremen und wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen zu untersuchen. Erstens verursachen extreme Wetterereignisse direkte Schäden in lokaler Wirtschaftsleistung. Die regionalen Auswirkungen werden auf der Grundlage von physikalischen Faktoren und lokalen Produktivitätsverteilungen kalkuliert. Ich berechne tägliche Zeitreihen lokaler Produktionsverluste durch Hitzestress, Überschwemmungen, tropische Wirbelstürme und deren konsekutives Auftreten unter Verwendung von Klimaprojektionsensembles. Die direkten Auswirkungen der oben genannten Katastrophenkategorien sind sehr heterogen in Bezug auf die regionale und zeitliche Verteilung. Ebenso ändert sich ihre Stärke unterschiedlich unter zukünftiger Erwärmung. Meine Forschungsergebnisse zeigen, dass Kapitalstock, welcher von Wirbelstürmen beschädigt ist, langfristige Wachstumsverluste verursacht. Dabei nehmen die Verluste zu, wenn die Heterogenität der Schocks steigt. Zweitens werden die wetterbedingten Auswirkungen durch wirtschaftliche Wellen innerhalb des Handelsnetzes auf verschiedene Wirtschaftssektoren und Regionen verteilt. In meiner Dissertation, untersuche ich die wirtschaftlichen Wellen mittels Acclimate und mache dabei drei Wellenphasen aus. Darüber hinaus berechne ich indirekte Auswirkungen und analysiere die regionalen und globalen Produktionsveränderungen sowie die Auswirkungen auf Konsumierende. Für letztere verdoppeln sich zwischen 2000 und 2039 die weltweiten Verluste durch Hitzestress, während im selben Zeitraum die direkten Produktionsverluste nur um den Faktor 1.5 steigen. Im Zuge meiner Forschung identifiziere ich den Effekt der ökonomischen Wellenresonanz und führe ihn in die Klimafolgenforschung ein. Dieser Effekt tritt auf, wenn sich die ökonomischen Wellen aufeinanderfolgender Katastrophen überlagern, was wirtschaftliche Reaktionen intensiviert wie beispielsweise eine Steigerung der Konsumverluste. Diese Dynamik der Verluste kann durch zunehmende direkte Produktionsverluste, hervorgerufen etwa durch den Klimawandel, noch verstärkt werden. Auch Handelsunterbrechungen können wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen haben. Um diese zu berechnen, erweitere ich das Modell Acclimate um ein geografisches Transportnetzwerk und weite den Entscheidungshorizont der Wirtschaftsakteure aus. Politisch bedingte plötzliche Handelsbeschränkungen (z. B. ein No-Deal-Brexit) können den längerfristigen wirtschaftlichen Wohlstand der betroffenen Regionen erheblich verringern. Analysen von Transportunterbrechungen in der Taifunsaison zeigen, dass stark betroffene Regionen ihre Produktionen reduzieren müssen, wenn die Nachfrage während eines Sturms sinkt. Zu Beginn eines Sturms können Handelsschwankungen durch alternative Lieferanten ausgeglichen werden, was jedoch bei längeren Unterbrechungen nicht mehr gelingt. Drittens ergeben sich mögliche Anpassungsmechanismen und -strategien aus direkten und indirekten wirtschaftlichen Reaktionen auf Wetterextreme. Die Analyse der jährlichen Handelsveränderungen in der Taifunsaison zeigt, dass Exporte insgesamt zunehmen. Diese Widerstandsfähigkeit des Handels wächst mit einer höheren Diversifizierung der Handelspartner. Weiterhin zeigt meine Forschung an Wirtschaftswachstumsmodellen, dass ein Versicherungssystem langfristige Wachstumsverluste, verursacht durch Tropenstürme, durch schnelleren Wiederaufbau verringern kann. Ich komme zu dem Schluss, dass ein Versicherungsschutz eine wirtschaftlich sinnvolle Anpassungsstrategie gegenüber höheren Schäden durch die Klimakrise sein kann. Ebenso weisen indirekte Auswirkungen von Wetterextremen innerhalb des globalen Wirtschaftsnetzes auf weitere Anpassungsmöglichkeiten hin. Zunächst vermindert eine diversifizierte Vernetzung die Gefahr eines starken Preisanstiegs. Ebenso kann eine enge wirtschaftliche Verflechtung von Regionen, die nicht dieselbe Unwettersaison haben, mittelfristig wirtschaftlich vorteilhaft sein. Weiterhin sollten bei der Berechnung der Kosten wirtschaftliche Resonanzeffekte berücksichtigt werden. Eine Verstärkung der lokalen Anpassungsmaßnahmen verringert die Amplitude ökonomischer Wellen und damit auch potentielle Verluste in anderen Regionen. Insgesamt sind Anpassungsmaßnahmen notwendig, aber es scheint trotz dieser nicht möglich zu sein, alle direkten oder indirekten Verluste zu vermeiden. Wie ich in meiner Arbeit darlege, gibt die dynamische Modellierung wertvolle Einblicke in die Art und Weise, wie direkte und indirekte wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen durch verschiedene Wetterextreme entstehen. Darüber hinaus wird deutlich, wie wichtig es ist, einzelne Extremereignisse aufzulösen und Verstärkungseffekte zu berücksichtigen, die durch unvollständigen Wiederaufbau oder aufeinanderfolgende Katastrophen verursacht werden. KW - climate change KW - weather extremes KW - macro-economic modelling KW - network theory KW - economic network KW - Klimawandel KW - Wetterextreme KW - Makroökonomische Modellierung KW - Netzwerktheorie KW - Ökonomisches Netzwerk Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-552668 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Seroussi, Helene A1 - Nowicki, Sophie A1 - Simon, Erika A1 - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Brondex, Julien A1 - Cornford, Stephen A1 - Dumas, Christophe A1 - Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien A1 - Goelzer, Heiko A1 - Golledge, Nicholas R. A1 - Gregory, Jonathan M. A1 - Greve, Ralf A1 - Hoffman, Matthew J. A1 - Humbert, Angelika A1 - Huybrechts, Philippe A1 - Kleiner, Thomas A1 - Larourl, Eric A1 - Leguy, Gunter A1 - Lipscomb, William H. A1 - Lowry, Daniel A1 - Mengel, Matthias A1 - Morlighem, Mathieu A1 - Pattyn, Frank A1 - Payne, Anthony J. A1 - Pollard, David A1 - Price, Stephen F. A1 - Quiquet, Aurelien A1 - Reerink, Thomas J. A1 - Reese, Ronja A1 - Rodehacke, Christian B. A1 - Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne A1 - Shepherd, Andrew A1 - Sun, Sainan A1 - Sutter, Johannes A1 - Van Breedam, Jonas A1 - van de Wal, Roderik S. W. A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Zhang, Tong T1 - initMIP-Antarctica BT - an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6 JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMlP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMlP-Greenland, initMlP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMlP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 13 IS - 5 SP - 1441 EP - 1471 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER -