TY  - JOUR
A1  - Middelanis, Robin
A1  - Willner, Sven N.
A1  - Otto, Christian
A1  - Kuhla, Kilian
A1  - Quante, Lennart
A1  - Levermann, Anders
T1  - Wave-like global economic ripple response to Hurricane Sandy
JF  - Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics
N2  - Tropical cyclones range among the costliest disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. We here simulate possible global repercussions on consumption for the example case of Hurricane Sandy in the US (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimate. The modeled shock yields a global three-phase ripple: an initial production demand reduction and associated consumption price decrease, followed by a supply shortage with increasing prices, and finally a recovery phase. Regions with strong trade relations to the US experience strong magnitudes of the ripple. A dominating demand reduction or supply shortage leads to overall consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. While finding these repercussions in historic data is challenging due to strong volatility of economic interactions, numerical models like ours can help to identify them by approaching the problem from an exploratory angle, isolating the effect of interest. For this, our model simulates the economic interactions of over 7000 regional economic sectors, interlinked through about 1.8 million trade relations. Under global warming, the wave-like structures of the economic response to major hurricanes like the one simulated here are likely to intensify and potentially overlap with other weather extremes.
KW  - supply chains
KW  - Hurricane Sandy
KW  - economic ripples
KW  - extreme weather
KW  - impacts
KW  - loss propagation
KW  - natural disasters
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac39c0
SN  - 1748-9326
VL  - 16
IS  - 12
PB  - IOP Publ. Ltd.
CY  - Bristol
ER  -