TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Tilmann, Frederik A1 - Woith, Heiko A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Comment on: Wikelski, Martin; Müller, Uschi; Scocco, Paola; Catorci, Andrea; Desinov, Lev V.; Belyaev, Mikhail Y.; Keim, Daniel A.; Pohlmeier, Winfried; Fechteler, Gerhard; Mai, Martin P. : Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring. - Ethology. - 126 (2020), 9. - S. 931 - 941. -ISSN 0179-1613. - eISSN 1439-0310. - doi 10.1111/eth.13078 JF - Ethology N2 - Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a "short-term earthquake forecasting method." We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state-of-the-art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power. KW - animal behavior KW - earthquake precursor KW - error diagram KW - prediction KW - randomness KW - statistics Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/eth.13105 SN - 0179-1613 SN - 1439-0310 VL - 127 IS - 3 SP - 302 EP - 306 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ziegler, Moritz O. A1 - Reiter, Karsten A1 - Heidbach, Oliver A1 - Zang, Arno A1 - Kwiatek, Grzegorz A1 - Stromeyer, Dietrich A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Dresen, Georg A1 - Hofmann, Gerhard T1 - Mining-Induced Stress Transfer and Its Relation to a 1.9 Seismic Event in an Ultra-deep South African Gold Mine JF - Pure and applied geophysics N2 - On 27 December 2007, a 1.9 seismic event occurred within a dyke in the deep-level Mponeng Gold Mine, South Africa. From the seismological network of the mine and the one from the Japanese-German Underground Acoustic Emission Research in South Africa (JAGUARS) group, the hypocentral depth (3,509 m), focal mechanism and aftershock location were estimated. Since no mining activity took place in the days before the event, dynamic triggering due to blasting can be ruled out as the cause. To investigate the hypothesis that stress transfer, due to excavation of the gold reef, induced the event, we set up a small-scale high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) geomechanical numerical model. The model consisted of the four different rock units present in the mine: quartzite (footwall), hard lava (hanging wall), conglomerate (gold reef) and diorite (dykes). The numerical solution was computed using a finite-element method with a discretised mesh of approximately elements. The initial stress state of the model is in agreement with in situ data from a neighbouring mine, and the step-wise excavation was simulated by mass removal from the gold reef. The resulting 3D stress tensor and its changes due to mining were analysed based on the Coulomb failure stress changes on the fault plane of the event. The results show that the seismic event was induced regardless of how the Coulomb failure stress changes were calculated and of the uncertainties in the fault plane solution. We also used the model to assess the seismic hazard due to the excavation towards the dyke. The resulting curve of stress changes shows a significant increase in the last in front of the dyke, indicating that small changes in the mining progress towards the dyke have a substantial impact on the stress transfer. KW - Induced seismicity KW - static stress change KW - deep-level mining KW - tabular mining KW - Coulomb failure stress KW - 3D geomechanical numerical model Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1033-x SN - 0033-4553 SN - 1420-9136 VL - 172 IS - 10 SP - 2557 EP - 2570 PB - Springer CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zang, Arno A1 - Stephansson, Ove A1 - Stenberg, Leif A1 - Plenkers, Katrin A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Milkereit, Claus A1 - Schill, Eva A1 - Kwiatek, Grzegorz A1 - Dresen, Georg A1 - Zimmermann, Günter A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Weber, Michael T1 - Hydraulic fracture monitoring in hard rock at 410 m depth with an advanced fluid-injection protocol and extensive sensor array JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - In this paper, an underground experiment at the Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) is described. Main goal is optimizing geothermal heat exchange in crystalline rock mass at depth by multistage hydraulic fracturing with minimal impact on the environment, that is, seismic events. For this, three arrays with acoustic emission, microseismicity and electromagnetic sensors are installed mapping hydraulic fracture initiation and growth. Fractures are driven by three different water injection schemes (continuous, progressive and pulse pressurization). After a brief review of hydraulic fracture operations in crystalline rock mass at mine scale, the site geology and the stress conditions at Aspo HRL are described. Then, the continuous, single-flow rate and alternative, multiple-flow rate fracture breakdown tests in a horizontal borehole at depth level 410 m are described together with the monitoring networks and sensitivity. Monitoring results include the primary catalogue of acoustic emission hypocentres obtained from four hydraulic fractures with the in situ trigger and localizing network. The continuous versus alternative water injection schemes are discussed in terms of the fracture breakdown pressure, the fracture pattern from impression packer result and the monitoring at the arrays. An example of multistage hydraulic fracturing with several phases of opening and closing of fracture walls is evaluated using data from acoustic emissions, seismic broad-band recordings and electromagnetic signal response. Based on our limited amount of in situ tests (six) and evaluation of three tests in Avro granodiorite, in the multiple-flow rate test with progressively increasing target pressure, the acoustic emission activity starts at a later stage in the fracturing process compared to the conventional fracturing case with continuous water injection. In tendency, also the total number and magnitude of acoustic events are found to be smaller in the progressive treatment with frequent phases of depressurization. KW - Geomechanics KW - Fracture and flow KW - Broad-band seismometers Y1 - 2016 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 208 SP - 790 EP - 813 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Woith, Heiko A1 - Petersen, Gesa Maria A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Review: Can Animals Predict Earthquakes? JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - In public perception, abnormal animal behavior is widely assumed to be a potential earthquake precursor, in strong contrast to the viewpoint in natural sciences. Proponents of earthquake prediction via animals claim that animals feel and react abnormally to small changes in environmental and physico-chemical parameters related to the earthquake preparation process. In seismology, however, observational evidence for changes of physical parameters before earthquakes is very weak. In this study, we reviewed 180 publications regarding abnormal animal behavior before earthquakes and analyze and discuss them with respect to (1) magnitude-distance relations, (2) foreshock activity, and (3) the quality and length of the published observations. More than 700 records of claimed animal precursors related to 160 earthquakes are reviewed with unusual behavior of more than 130 species. The precursor time ranges from months to seconds prior to the earthquakes, and the distances from a few to hundreds of kilometers. However, only 14 time series were published, whereas all other records are single observations. The time series are often short (the longest is 1 yr), or only small excerpts of the full data set are shown. The probability density of foreshocks and the occurrence of animal precursors are strikingly similar, suggesting that at least parts of the reported animal precursors are in fact related to foreshocks. Another major difficulty for a systematic and statistical analysis is the high diversity of data, which are often only anecdotal and retrospective. The study clearly demonstrates strong weaknesses or even deficits in many of the published reports on possible abnormal animal behavior. To improve the research on precursors, we suggest a scheme of yes and no questions to be assessed to ensure the quality of such claims. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170313 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 108 IS - 3A SP - 1031 EP - 1045 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tilmann, F. A1 - Zhang, Y. A1 - Moreno, M. A1 - Saul, J. A1 - Eckelmann, F. A1 - Palo, M. A1 - Deng, Z. A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Chen, K. A1 - Báez, Juan Carlos A1 - Schurr, B. A1 - Wang, R. A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - The 2015 Illapel earthquake, central Chile: A type case for a characteristic earthquake? JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - On 16 September 2015, the M-W = 8.2 Illapel megathrust earthquake ruptured the Central Chilean margin. Combining inversions of displacement measurements and seismic waveforms with high frequency (HF) teleseismic backprojection, we derive a comprehensive description of the rupture, which also predicts deep ocean tsunami wave heights. We further determine moment tensors and obtain accurate depth estimates for the aftershock sequence. The earthquake nucleated near the coast but then propagated to the north and updip, attaining a peak slip of 5-6 m. In contrast, HF seismic radiation is mostly emitted downdip of the region of intense slip and arrests earlier than the long period rupture, indicating smooth slip along the shallow plate interface in the final phase. A superficially similar earthquake in 1943 with a similar aftershock zone had a much shorter source time function, which matches the duration of HF seismic radiation in the recent event, indicating that the 1943 event lacked the shallow slip. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066963 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 43 SP - 574 EP - 583 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sen, Ali Tolga A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Bischoff, Monika A1 - Meier, Thomas A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Automated full moment tensor inversion of coal mining-induced seismicity JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Seismicity induced by coal mining in the Ruhr region, Germany, has been monitored continuously over the last 25 yr. In 2006, a dense temporary network (HAMNET) was deployed to locally monitor seismicity induced by longwall mining close to the town of Hamm. Between 2006 July and 2007 July, more than 7000 events with magnitudes M-L from -1.7 to 2.0 were detected. The spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity shows high correlation with the mining activity. In order to monitor rupture processes, we set up an automated source inversion routine and successfully perform double couple and full moment tensor (MT) inversions for more than 1000 events with magnitudes above M-L -0.5. The source inversion is based on a full waveform approach, both in the frequency and in the time domain, providing information about the centroid location, focal mechanism, scalar moment and full MT. Inversion results indicate a strong dominance of normal faulting focal mechanisms, with a steeper plane and a subhorizontal one. Fault planes are oriented parallel to the mining stopes. We classify the focal mechanisms based on their orientation and observe different frequency-magnitude distributions for families of events with different focal mechanisms; the overall frequency-magnitude distribution is not fitting the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Full MTs indicate that non-negligible opening tensile components accompanied normal faulting source mechanisms. Finally, extended source models are investigated for largest events. Results suggest that the rupture processes mostly occurred along the subvertical planes. KW - Geomechanics KW - Fracture and flow KW - Earthquake source observations KW - Seismicity and tectonics Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt300 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 195 IS - 2 SP - 1267 EP - 1281 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Richter, Gudrun A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - Stress-based, statistical modeling of the induced seismicity at the Groningen gas field BT - the Netherlands JF - Environmental earth sciences N2 - Groningen is the largest onshore gas field under production in Europe. The pressure depletion of the gas field started in 1963. In 1991, the first induced micro-earthquakes have been located at reservoir level with increasing rates in the following decades. Most of these events are of magnitude less than 2.0 and cannot be felt. However, maximum observed magnitudes continuously increased over the years until the largest, significant event with ML=3.6 was recorded in 2014, which finally led to the decision to reduce the production. This causal sequence displays the crucial role of understanding and modeling the relation between production and induced seismicity for economic planing and hazard assessment. Here we test whether the induced seismicity related to gas exploration can be modeled by the statistical response of fault networks with rate-and-state-dependent frictional behavior. We use the long and complete local seismic catalog and additionally detailed information on production-induced changes at the reservoir level to test different seismicity models. Both the changes of the fluid pressure and of the reservoir compaction are tested as input to approximate the Coulomb stress changes. We find that the rate-and-state model with a constant tectonic background seismicity rate can reproduce the observed long delay of the seismicity onset. In contrast, so-called Coulomb failure models with instantaneous earthquake nucleation need to assume that all faults are initially far from a critical state of stress to explain the delay. Our rate-and-state model based on the fluid pore pressure fits the spatiotemporal pattern of the seismicity best, where the fit further improves by taking the fault density and orientation into account. Despite its simplicity with only three free parameters, the rate-and-state model can reproduce the main statistical features of the observed activity. KW - induced seismicity KW - modeling KW - statistical seismology KW - forecast Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-08941-4 SN - 1866-6280 SN - 1866-6299 VL - 79 IS - 11 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Polom, Ulrich A1 - Alrshdan, Hussam A1 - Al-Halbouni, Djamil A1 - Holohan, Eoghan P. A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Sawarieh, Ali A1 - Atallah, Mohamad Y. A1 - Krawczyk, Charlotte M. T1 - Shear wave reflection seismic yields subsurface dissolution and subrosion patterns BT - application to the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site, Dead Sea, Jordan JF - Solid earth N2 - Near-surface geophysical imaging of alluvial fan settings is a challenging task but crucial for understating geological processes in such settings. The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha at the southeast shore of the Dead Sea is strongly affected by localized subsidence and destructive sinkhole collapses, with a significantly increasing sinkhole formation rate since ca. 1983. A similar increase is observed also on the western shore of the Dead Sea, in correlation with an ongoing decline in the Dead Sea level. Since different structural models of the upper 50 m of the alluvial fan and varying hypothetical sinkhole processes have been suggested for the Ghor Al-Haditha area in the past, this study aimed to clarify the subsurface characteristics responsible for sinkhole development. For this purpose, high-frequency shear wave reflection vibratory seismic surveys were carried out in the Ghor Al-Haditha area along several crossing and parallel profiles with a total length of 1.8 and 2.1 km in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The sedimentary architecture of the alluvial fan at Ghor Al-Haditha is resolved down to a depth of nearly 200 m at a high resolution and is calibrated with the stratigraphic profiles of two boreholes located inside the survey area. The most surprising result of the survey is the absence of evidence of a thick (>2-10 m) compacted salt layer formerly suggested to lie at ca. 35-40 m depth. Instead, seismic reflection amplitudes and velocities image with good continuity a complex interlocking of alluvial fan deposits and lacustrine sediments of the Dead Sea between 0 and 200 m depth. Furthermore, the underground section of areas affected by sinkholes is characterized by highly scattering wave fields and reduced seismic interval velocities. We propose that the Dead Sea mud layers, which comprise distributed inclusions or lenses of evaporitic chloride, sulfate, and carbonate minerals as well as clay silicates, become increasingly exposed to unsaturated water as the sea level declines and are consequently destabilized and mobilized by both dissolution and physical erosion in the subsurface. This new interpretation of the underlying cause of sinkhole development is supported by surface observations in nearby channel systems. Overall, this study shows that shear wave seismic reflection technique is a promising method for enhanced near-surface imaging in such challenging alluvial fan settings. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1079-2018 SN - 1869-9510 SN - 1869-9529 VL - 9 IS - 5 SP - 1079 EP - 1098 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Polom, Ulrich A1 - Alrshdan, Hussam A1 - Al-Halbouni, Djamil A1 - Holohan, Eoghan P. A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Sawarieh, Ali A1 - Atallah, Mohamad Y. A1 - Krawczyk, Charlotte M. T1 - Shear wave reflection seismic yields subsurface dissolution and subrosion patterns BT - application to the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site, Dead Sea, Jordan T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Near-surface geophysical imaging of alluvial fan settings is a challenging task but crucial for understating geological processes in such settings. The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha at the southeast shore of the Dead Sea is strongly affected by localized subsidence and destructive sinkhole collapses, with a significantly increasing sinkhole formation rate since ca. 1983. A similar increase is observed also on the western shore of the Dead Sea, in correlation with an ongoing decline in the Dead Sea level. Since different structural models of the upper 50 m of the alluvial fan and varying hypothetical sinkhole processes have been suggested for the Ghor Al-Haditha area in the past, this study aimed to clarify the subsurface characteristics responsible for sinkhole development. For this purpose, high-frequency shear wave reflection vibratory seismic surveys were carried out in the Ghor Al-Haditha area along several crossing and parallel profiles with a total length of 1.8 and 2.1 km in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The sedimentary architecture of the alluvial fan at Ghor Al-Haditha is resolved down to a depth of nearly 200 m at a high resolution and is calibrated with the stratigraphic profiles of two boreholes located inside the survey area. The most surprising result of the survey is the absence of evidence of a thick (> 2–10 m) compacted salt layer formerly suggested to lie at ca. 35–40 m depth. Instead, seismic reflection amplitudes and velocities image with good continuity a complex interlocking of alluvial fan deposits and lacustrine sediments of the Dead Sea between 0 and 200 m depth. Furthermore, the underground section of areas affected by sinkholes is characterized by highly scattering wave fields and reduced seismic interval velocities. We propose that the Dead Sea mud layers, which comprise distributed inclusions or lenses of evaporitic chloride, sulfate, and carbonate minerals as well as clay silicates, become increasingly exposed to unsaturated water as the sea level declines and are consequently destabilized and mobilized by both dissolution and physical erosion in the subsurface. This new interpretation of the underlying cause of sinkhole development is supported by surface observations in nearby channel systems. Overall, this study shows that shear wave seismic reflection technique is a promising method for enhanced near-surface imaging in such challenging alluvial fan settings. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 979 KW - salt dissolution KW - hazard KW - coast KW - area KW - subsidence KW - shoreline KW - karst KW - lake Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-459134 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 979 SP - 1079 EP - 1098 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pirli, Myrto A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Schweitzer, Johannes A1 - Köhler, Andreas A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Localised thickening and grounding of an Antarctic ice shelf from tidal triggering and sizing of cryoseismicity JF - Earth & planetary science letters N2 - We observe remarkably periodic patterns of seismicity rates and magnitudes at the Fimbul Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, correlating with the cycles of the ocean tide. Our analysis covers 19 years of continuous seismic recordings from Antarctic broadband stations. Seismicity commences abruptly during austral summer 2011 at a location near the ocean front in a shallow water region. Dozens of highly repetitive events occur in semi-diurnal cycles, with magnitudes and rates fluctuating steadily with the tide. In contrast to the common unpredictability of earthquake magnitudes, the event magnitudes show deterministic trends within single cycles and strong correlations with spring tides and tide height. The events occur quasi-periodically and the highly constrained event sources migrate landwards during rising tide. We show that a simple, mechanical model can explain most of the observations. Our model assumes stick-slip motion on a patch of grounded ice shelf, which is forced by the variations of the ocean-tide height and ice flow. The well fitted observations give new insights into the general process of frictional triggering of earthquakes, while providing independent evidence of variations in ice shelf thickness and grounding. KW - tidally modulated cryogenic seismicity KW - stick-slip motion KW - event recurrence predictability KW - ice-shelf thickness KW - ice-shelf grounding KW - East Antarctica Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.09.024 SN - 0012-821X SN - 1385-013X VL - 503 SP - 78 EP - 87 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER -