TY - JOUR A1 - Smirnov, Artem A1 - Berrendorf, Max A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Kronberg, Elena A. A1 - Allison, Hayley J. A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina A1 - Morley, Steven K. A1 - Reeves, Geoffrey D. A1 - Carver, Matthew R. A1 - Effenberger, Frederic T1 - Medium energy electron flux in earth's outer radiation belt (MERLIN) BT - a Machine learning model JF - Space weather : the international journal of research and applications N2 - The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120-600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis. KW - machine learning KW - radiation belts KW - electron flux KW - empirical modeling KW - magnetosphere KW - electrons Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002532 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 18 IS - 11 PB - American geophysical union, AGU CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cervantes, Sebastian A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Castillo Tibocha, Angelica Maria A1 - Stolle, Claudia T1 - Identifying radiation belt electron source and loss processes by assimilating spacecraft data in a three-dimensional diffusion model JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - Data assimilation aims to blend incomplete and inaccurate data with physics-based dynamical models. In the Earth's radiation belts, it is used to reconstruct electron phase space density, and it has become an increasingly important tool in validating our current understanding of radiation belt dynamics, identifying new physical processes, and predicting the near-Earth hazardous radiation environment. In this study, we perform reanalysis of the sparse measurements from four spacecraft using the three-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt diffusion model and a split-operator Kalman filter over a 6-month period from 1 October 2012 to 1 April 2013. In comparison to previous works, our 3-D model accounts for more physical processes, namely, mixed pitch angle-energy diffusion, scattering by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron waves, and magnetopause shadowing. We describe how data assimilation, by means of the innovation vector, can be used to account for missing physics in the model. We use this method to identify the radial distances from the Earth and the geomagnetic conditions where our model is inconsistent with the measured phase space density for different values of the invariants mu and K. As a result, the Kalman filter adjusts the predictions in order to match the observations, and we interpret this as evidence of where and when additional source or loss processes are active. The current work demonstrates that 3-D data assimilation provides a comprehensive picture of the radiation belt electrons and is a crucial step toward performing reanalysis using measurements from ongoing and future missions. KW - acceleration KW - code KW - density KW - emic waves KW - energetic particle KW - mechanisms KW - reanalysis KW - ultrarelativistic electrons KW - weather Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JA027514 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 125 IS - 1 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Smirnov, Artem A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Allison, Hayley A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Kollmann, Peter A1 - Wang, Dedong A1 - Saikin, Anthony T1 - Storm-Time evolution of the Equatorial Electron Pitch Angle Distributions in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt JF - Frontiers in astronomy and space sciences N2 - In this study we analyze the storm-time evolution of equatorial electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in the outer radiation belt region using observations from the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) instrument aboard the Van Allen Probes in 2012-2019. The PADs are approximated using a sum of the first, third and fifth sine harmonics. Different combinations of the respective coefficients refer to the main PAD shapes within the outer radiation belt, namely the pancake, flat-top, butterfly and cap PADs. We conduct a superposed epoch analysis of 129 geomagnetic storms and analyze the PAD evolution for day and night MLT sectors. PAD shapes exhibit a strong energy-dependent response. At energies of tens of keV, the PADs exhibit little variation throughout geomagnetic storms. Cap PADs are mainly observed at energies < 300 keV, and their extent in L shrinks with increasing energy. The cap distributions transform into the pancake PADs around the main phase of the storm on the nightside, and then come back to their original shapes during the recovery phase. At higher energies on the dayside, the PADs are mainly pancake during pre-storm conditions and become more anisotropic during the main phase. The quiet-time butterfly PADs can be observed on the nightside at L> 5.6. During the main phase, butterfly PADs have stronger 90 degrees-minima and can be observed at lower L-shells (down to L = 5), then transitioning into flat-top PADs at L similar to 4.5 - 5 and pancake PADs at L < 4.5. The resulting PAD coefficients for different energies, locations and storm epochs can be used to test the wave models and physics-based radiation belt codes in terms of pitch angle distributions. KW - pitch angle KW - pitch angle distributions KW - electrons KW - radiation belts KW - magnetosphere KW - van alien probes Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2022.836811 SN - 2296-987X VL - 9 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Del Corpo, Alfredo A1 - Vellante, Massimo A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Heilig, Balazs A1 - Reda, Jan A1 - Pietropaolo, Ermanno A1 - Lichtenberger, Janos T1 - Study of the average ion mass of the dayside magnetospheric plasma JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - The investigation of heavy ions dynamics and properties in the Earth's magnetosphere is still an important field of research as they play an important role in several space weather aspects. We present a statistical survey of the average ion mass in the dayside magnetosphere made comparing plasma mass density with electron number density measurements and focusing on both spatial and geomagnetic activity dependence. Field line resonance frequency observations across the European quasi-Meridional Magnetometer Array, are used to infer the equatorial plasma mass density in the range of magnetic L-shells 1.6-6.2. The electron number density is derived from local electric field measurements made on Van Allen Probes using the Neural-network-based Upper-hybrid Resonance Determination algorithm. The analysis is conducted separately for the plasmasphere and the plasmatrough during favorable periods for which both the plasma parameters are observed simultaneously. We found that throughout the plasmasphere the average ion mass is similar or equal to 1 amu for a wide range of geomagnetic activity conditions, suggesting that the plasma mainly consist of hydrogen ions, without regard to the level of geomagnetic activity. Conversely, the plasmatrough is characterized by a variable composition, highlighting a heavy ion mass loading that increases with increasing levels of geomagnetic disturbance. During the most disturbed conditions, the average radial structure shows a broad maximum around 3-4 Earth radii, probably correlated with the accumulation of oxygen ions near the plasmapause. Those ions are mostly observed in the post-dawn and pre-dusk longitudinal sectors. KW - magnetospheric average ion mass KW - magnetospheric plasma spatial KW - distribution KW - oxygen torus KW - geomagnetic activity dependence KW - field line KW - resonances Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JA030605 SN - 2169-9380 VL - 127 IS - 10 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington, DC ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Smirnov, Artem A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Allison, Hayley A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Kollmann, Peter A1 - Wang, Dedong A1 - Saikin, Anthony T1 - An empirical model of the equatorial electron pitch angle distributions in earth's outer radiation belt JF - Space Weather: the International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - In this study, we present an empirical model of the equatorial electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in the outer radiation belt based on the full data set collected by the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes in 2012-2019. The PADs are fitted with a combination of the first, third and fifth sine harmonics. The resulting equation resolves all PAD types found in the outer radiation belt (pancake, flat-top, butterfly and cap PADs) and can be analytically integrated to derive omnidirectional flux. We introduce a two-step modeling procedure that for the first time ensures a continuous dependence on L, magnetic local time and activity, parametrized by the solar wind dynamic pressure. We propose two methods to reconstruct equatorial electron flux using the model. The first approach requires two uni-directional flux observations and is applicable to low-PA data. The second method can be used to reconstruct the full equatorial PADs from a single uni- or omnidirectional measurement at off-equatorial latitudes. The model can be used for converting the long-term data sets of electron fluxes to phase space density in terms of adiabatic invariants, for physics-based modeling in the form of boundary conditions, and for data assimilation purposes. KW - pitch angle KW - radiation belt KW - model KW - magnetosphere KW - van allen probes; KW - electrons Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003053 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 20 IS - 9 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington, DC ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Walker, Simon N. A1 - Boynton, Richard J. A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Balikhin, Michael A. A1 - Drozdov, Alexander T1 - Forecast of the energetic electron environment of the radiation belts JF - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - Different modeling methodologies possess different strengths and weakness. For instance, data based models may provide superior accuracy but have a limited spatial coverage while physics based models may provide lower accuracy but provide greater spatial coverage. This study investigates the coupling of a data based model of the electron fluxes at geostationary orbit (GEO) with a numerical model of the radiation belt region to improve the resulting forecasts/pastcasts of electron fluxes over the whole radiation belt region. In particular, two coupling methods are investigated. The first assumes an average value for L* for GEO, namely LGEO* L-GEO* = 6.2. The second uses a value of L* that varies with geomagnetic activity, quantified using the Kp index. As the terrestrial magnetic field responds to variations in geomagnetic activity, the value of L* will vary for a specific location. In this coupling method, the value of L* is calculated using the Kp driven Tsyganenko 89c magnetic field model for field line tracing. It is shown that this addition can result in changes in the initialization of the parameters at the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt model outer boundary. Model outputs are compared to Van Allen Probes MagEIS measurements of the electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere for the March 2015 geomagnetic storm. It is found that the fixed LGEO* L-GEO* coupling method produces a more realistic forecast. KW - radiation belt forecasts KW - data based NARMAX modeling KW - verb simulations; KW - geostationary orbit KW - electron flux forecasts Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003124 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 20 IS - 12 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Haas, Bernhard A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Allison, Hayley A1 - Wutzig, Michael A1 - Wang, Dedong T1 - Which parameter controls ring current electron dynamics JF - Frontiers in astronomy and space sciences N2 - Predicting the electron population of Earth's ring current during geomagnetic storms still remains a challenging task. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of 10 keV ring current electrons to different driving processes, parameterised by the Kp index, during several moderate and intense storms. Results are validated against measurements from the Van Allen Probes satellites. Perturbing the Kp index allows us to identify the most dominant processes for moderate and intense storms respectively. We find that during moderate storms (Kp < 6) the drift velocities mostly control the behaviour of low energy electrons, while loss from wave-particle interactions is the most critical parameter for quantifying the evolution of intense storms (Kp > 6). Perturbations of the Kp index used to drive the boundary conditions at GEO and set the plasmapause location only show a minimal effect on simulation results over a limited L range. It is further shown that the flux at L & SIM; 3 is more sensitive to changes in the Kp index compared to higher L shells, making it a good proxy for validating the source-loss balance of a ring current model. KW - ring current KW - magnetosphere KW - electron lifetimes KW - electrons KW - van allen probes (RBSP) KW - ring current model KW - verb Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2022.911002 SN - 2296-987X VL - 9 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Adolfs, Marjolijn A1 - Hoque, Mohammed Mainul A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. T1 - Storm-time relative total electron content modelling using machine learning techniques JF - Remote sensing N2 - Accurately predicting total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms is still a challenging task for ionospheric models. In this work, a neural-network (NN)-based model is proposed which predicts relative TEC with respect to the preceding 27-day median TEC, during storm time for the European region (with longitudes 30 degrees W-50 degrees E and latitudes 32.5 degrees N-70 degrees N). The 27-day median TEC (referred to as median TEC), latitude, longitude, universal time, storm time, solar radio flux index F10.7, global storm index SYM-H and geomagnetic activity index Hp30 are used as inputs and the output of the network is the relative TEC. The relative TEC can be converted to the actual TEC knowing the median TEC. The median TEC is calculated at each grid point over the European region considering data from the last 27 days before the storm using global ionosphere maps (GIMs) from international GNSS service (IGS) sources. A storm event is defined when the storm time disturbance index Dst drops below 50 nanotesla. The model was trained with storm-time relative TEC data from the time period of 1998 until 2019 (2015 is excluded) and contains 365 storms. Unseen storm data from 33 storm events during 2015 and 2020 were used to test the model. The UQRG GIMs were used because of their high temporal resolution (15 min) compared to other products from different analysis centers. The NN-based model predictions show the seasonal behavior of the storms including positive and negative storm phases during winter and summer, respectively, and show a mixture of both phases during equinoxes. The model's performance was also compared with the Neustrelitz TEC model (NTCM) and the NN-based quiet-time TEC model, both developed at the German Aerospace Agency (DLR). The storm model has a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 3.38 TEC units (TECU), which is an improvement by 1.87 TECU compared to the NTCM, where an RMSE of 5.25 TECU was found. This improvement corresponds to a performance increase by 35.6%. The storm-time model outperforms the quiet-time model by 1.34 TECU, which corresponds to a performance increase by 28.4% from 4.72 to 3.38 TECU. The quiet-time model was trained with Carrington averaged TEC and, therefore, is ideal to be used as an input instead of the GIM derived 27-day median. We found an improvement by 0.8 TECU which corresponds to a performance increase by 17% from 4.72 to 3.92 TECU for the storm-time model using the quiet-time-model predicted TEC as an input compared to solely using the quiet-time model. KW - ionosphere KW - relative total electron content KW - geomagnetic storms KW - neural KW - networks KW - NTCM KW - European storm-time model Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14236155 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 14 IS - 23 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Allison, Hayley J. A1 - Wang, Dedong A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Szabo-Roberts, Matyas A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina A1 - Vasile, Ruggero T1 - A new population of ultra-relativistic electrons in the outer radiation zone JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - Van Allen Probes measurements revealed the presence of the most unusual structures in the ultra-relativistic radiation belts. Detailed modeling, analysis of pitch angle distributions, analysis of the difference between relativistic and ultra-realistic electron evolution, along with theoretical studies of the scattering and wave growth, all indicate that electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves can produce a very efficient loss of the ultra-relativistic electrons in the heart of the radiation belts. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the profiles of phase space densities provides direct evidence for localized loss by EMIC waves. The evolution of multi-MeV fluxes shows dramatic and very sudden enhancements of electrons for selected storms. Analysis of phase space density profiles reveals that growing peaks at different values of the first invariant are formed at approximately the same radial distance from the Earth and show the sequential formation of the peaks from lower to higher energies, indicating that local energy diffusion is the dominant source of the acceleration from MeV to multi-MeV energies. Further simultaneous analysis of the background density and ultra-relativistic electron fluxes shows that the acceleration to multi-MeV energies only occurs when plasma density is significantly depleted outside of the plasmasphere, which is consistent with the modeling of acceleration due to chorus waves. KW - radiation belts KW - ultra-relativistic electrons KW - EMIC waves KW - modeling; KW - plasma density KW - chorus waves Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JA030214 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 127 IS - 5 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cervantes, Sebastian A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Allison, Hayley J. T1 - Quantifying the effects of EMIC wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing in the outer electron radiation belt by means of data assimilation JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - In this study we investigate two distinct loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons by assimilating data from Van Allen Probes A and B and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13 and 15 into a 3-D diffusion model. In particular, we examine the respective contribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing for values of the first adiabatic invariant mu ranging from 300 to 3,000 MeV G(-1). We inspect the innovation vector and perform a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the effect of both processes as a function of various geomagnetic indices, solar wind parameters, and radial distance from the Earth. Our results are in agreement with previous studies that demonstrated the energy dependence of these two mechanisms. We show that EMIC wave scattering tends to dominate loss at lower L shells, and it may amount to between 10%/hr and 30%/hr of the maximum value of phase space density (PSD) over all L shells for fixed first and second adiabatic invariants. On the other hand, magnetopause shadowing is found to deplete electrons across all energies, mostly at higher L shells, resulting in loss from 50%/hr to 70%/hr of the maximum PSD. Nevertheless, during times of enhanced geomagnetic activity, both processes can operate beyond such location and encompass the entire outer radiation belt. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028208 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 125 IS - 8 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER -