TY - JOUR A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Wang, Dedong A1 - Wygant, John A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Kellerman, Adam C. A1 - Reeves, Geoffrey D. T1 - Transport and loss of ring current electrons inside geosynchronous orbit during the 17 March 2013 storm JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - Ring current electrons (1–100 keV) have received significant attention in recent decades, but many questions regarding their major transport and loss mechanisms remain open. In this study, we use the four‐dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code to model the enhancement of phase space density that occurred during the 17 March 2013 storm. Our model includes global convection, radial diffusion, and scattering into the Earth's atmosphere driven by whistler‐mode hiss and chorus waves. We study the sensitivity of the model to the boundary conditions, global electric field, the electric field associated with subauroral polarization streams, electron loss rates, and radial diffusion coefficients. The results of the code are almost insensitive to the model parameters above 4.5 RERE, which indicates that the general dynamics of the electrons between 4.5 RE and the geostationary orbit can be explained by global convection. We found that the major discrepancies between the model and data can stem from the inaccurate electric field model and uncertainties in lifetimes. We show that additional mechanisms that are responsible for radial transport are required to explain the dynamics of ≥40‐keV electrons, and the inclusion of the radial diffusion rates that are typically assumed in radiation belt studies leads to a better agreement with the data. The overall effect of subauroral polarization streams on the electron phase space density profiles seems to be smaller than the uncertainties in other input parameters. This study is an initial step toward understanding the dynamics of these particles inside the geostationary orbit. KW - ring current electrons KW - magnetospheric convection KW - ensemble modeling KW - inner magnetosphere KW - electron transport KW - wave-particle interactions Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JA026031 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 124 IS - 2 SP - 915 EP - 933 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Allison, Hayley J. A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Usanova, Maria E. A1 - Saikin, Anthony A1 - Wang, Dedong T1 - Depletions of Multi-MeV Electrons and their association to Minima in Phase Space Density JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Fast-localized electron loss, resulting from interactions with electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves, can produce deepening minima in phase space density (PSD) radial profiles. Here, we perform a statistical analysis of local PSD minima to quantify how readily these are associated with radiation belt depletions. The statistics of PSD minima observed over a year are compared to the Versatile Electron Radiation Belts (VERB) simulations, both including and excluding EMIC waves. The observed minima distribution can only be achieved in the simulation including EMIC waves, indicating their importance in the dynamics of the radiation belts. By analyzing electron flux depletions in conjunction with the observed PSD minima, we show that, in the heart of the outer radiation belt (L* < 5), on average, 53% of multi-MeV electron depletions are associated with PSD minima, demonstrating that fast localized loss by interactions with EMIC waves are a common and crucial process for ultra-relativistic electron populations. KW - radiation belts KW - EMIC KW - VERB KW - PSD Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097620 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 49 IS - 8 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Inceoglu, Fadil A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Heinemann, Stephan G. A1 - Bianco, Stefano T1 - Identification of coronal holes on AIA/SDO images using unsupervised machine learning JF - The astrophysical journal : an international review of spectroscopy and astronomical physics N2 - Through its magnetic activity, the Sun governs the conditions in Earth's vicinity, creating space weather events, which have drastic effects on our space- and ground-based technology. One of the most important solar magnetic features creating the space weather is the solar wind that originates from the coronal holes (CHs). The identification of the CHs on the Sun as one of the source regions of the solar wind is therefore crucial to achieve predictive capabilities. In this study, we used an unsupervised machine-learning method, k-means, to pixel-wise cluster the passband images of the Sun taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on the Solar Dynamics Observatory in 171, 193, and 211 angstrom in different combinations. Our results show that the pixel-wise k-means clustering together with systematic pre- and postprocessing steps provides compatible results with those from complex methods, such as convolutional neural networks. More importantly, our study shows that there is a need for a CH database where a consensus about the CH boundaries is reached by observers independently. This database then can be used as the "ground truth," when using a supervised method or just to evaluate the goodness of the models. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac5f43 SN - 1538-4357 VL - 930 IS - 2 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Landis, Daji August A1 - Saikin, Anthony A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Pfitzer, Maximilian F. A1 - Smirnov, Artem G. T1 - NARX Neural Network Derivations of the Outer Boundary Radiation Belt Electron Flux JF - Space Weather: the international journal of research and applications N2 - We present two new empirical models of radiation belt electron flux at geostationary orbit. GOES-15 measurements of 0.8 MeV electrons were used to train a Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous input (NARX) neural network for both modeling GOES-15 flux values and an upper boundary condition scaling factor (BF). The GOES-15 flux model utilizes an input and feedback delay of 2 and 2 time steps (i.e., 5 min time steps) with the most efficient number of hidden layers set to 10. Magnetic local time, Dst, Kp, solar wind dynamic pressure, AE, and solar wind velocity were found to perform as predicative indicators of GOES-15 flux and therefore were used as the exogenous inputs. The NARX-derived upper boundary condition scaling factor was used in conjunction with the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code to produce reconstructions of the radiation belts during the period of July-November 1990, independent of in-situ observations. Here, Kp was chosen as the sole exogenous input to be more compatible with the VERB code. This Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite-era reconstruction showcases the potential to use these neural network-derived boundary conditions as a method of hindcasting the historical radiation belts. This study serves as a companion paper to another recently published study on reconstructing the radiation belts during Solar Cycles 17-24 (Saikin et al., 2021, ), for which the results featured in this paper were used. KW - radiation belts KW - forecasting (1922, 4315, 7924, 7964) KW - machine learning (0555) Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002774 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 20 IS - 5 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ripoll, Jean-Francois A1 - Loridan, Vivien A1 - Denton, Michael H. A1 - Cunningham, Gregory A1 - Reeves, G. A1 - Santolik, O. A1 - Fennell, Joseph A1 - Turner, Drew L. A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Cervantes Villa, Juan Sebastian A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Thaller, Scott A. A1 - Kurth, William S. A1 - Kletzing, Craig A. A1 - Henderson, Michael G. A1 - Ukhorskiy, Aleksandr Y. T1 - Observations and Fokker-Planck Simulations of the L-Shell, Energy, and Times JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - The evolution of the radiation belts in L-shell (L), energy (E), and equatorial pitch angle (alpha(0)) is analyzed during the calm 11-day interval (4-15 March) following the 1 March 2013 storm. Magnetic Electron and Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) observations from Van Allen Probes are interpreted alongside 1D and 3D Fokker-Planck simulations combined with consistent event-driven scattering modeling from whistler mode hiss waves. Three (L, E, alpha(0)) regions persist through 11 days of hiss wave scattering; the pitch angle-dependent inner belt core (L similar to <2.2 and E < 700 keV), pitch angle homogeneous outer belt low-energy core (L > similar to 5 and E similar to < 100 keV), and a distinct pocket of electrons (L similar to [4.5, 5.5] and E similar to [0.7, 2] MeV). The pitch angle homogeneous outer belt is explained by the diffusion coefficients that are roughly constant for alpha(0) similar to <60 degrees, E > 100 keV, 3.5 < L < L-pp similar to 6. Thus, observed unidirectional flux decays can be used to estimate local pitch angle diffusion rates in that region. Top-hat distributions are computed and observed at L similar to 3-3.5 and E = 100-300 keV. KW - radiation belts KW - wave-particle interactions KW - electron lifetime KW - pitch angle diffusion coefficient KW - hiss waves Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JA026111 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 124 IS - 2 SP - 1125 EP - 1142 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Allison, Hayley J. A1 - Wang, Dedong A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Szabo-Roberts, Matyas A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina A1 - Vasile, Ruggero T1 - A new population of ultra-relativistic electrons in the outer radiation zone JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - Van Allen Probes measurements revealed the presence of the most unusual structures in the ultra-relativistic radiation belts. Detailed modeling, analysis of pitch angle distributions, analysis of the difference between relativistic and ultra-realistic electron evolution, along with theoretical studies of the scattering and wave growth, all indicate that electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves can produce a very efficient loss of the ultra-relativistic electrons in the heart of the radiation belts. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the profiles of phase space densities provides direct evidence for localized loss by EMIC waves. The evolution of multi-MeV fluxes shows dramatic and very sudden enhancements of electrons for selected storms. Analysis of phase space density profiles reveals that growing peaks at different values of the first invariant are formed at approximately the same radial distance from the Earth and show the sequential formation of the peaks from lower to higher energies, indicating that local energy diffusion is the dominant source of the acceleration from MeV to multi-MeV energies. Further simultaneous analysis of the background density and ultra-relativistic electron fluxes shows that the acceleration to multi-MeV energies only occurs when plasma density is significantly depleted outside of the plasmasphere, which is consistent with the modeling of acceleration due to chorus waves. KW - radiation belts KW - ultra-relativistic electrons KW - EMIC waves KW - modeling; KW - plasma density KW - chorus waves Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JA030214 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 127 IS - 5 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - GEN A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina A1 - Green, Janet C. A1 - Pulkkinen, Antti A. A1 - Horne, Richard B. A1 - Pitchford, David A1 - Glover, Alexi T1 - Discussions on Stakeholder Requirements for Space Weather-Related Models T2 - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - Participants of the 2017 European Space Weather Week in Ostend, Belgium, discussed the stakeholder requirements for space weather-related models. It was emphasized that stakeholders show an increased interest in space weather-related models. Participants of the meeting discussed particular prediction indicators that can provide first-order estimates of the impact of space weather on engineering systems. KW - 7924 KW - 7934 KW - 7959 Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2018SW001864 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 16 IS - 4 SP - 341 EP - 342 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - GEN A1 - Smirnov, Artem G. A1 - Kronberg, Elena A. A1 - Daly, Patrick W. A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Kellerman, Adam C. T1 - Adiabatic Invariants Calculations for Cluster Mission: A Long-Term Product for Radiation Belts Studies T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Cluster mission has produced a large data set of electron flux measurements in the Earth's magnetosphere since its launch in late 2000. Electron fluxes are measured using Research with Adaptive Particle Imaging Detector (RAPID)/Imaging Electron Spectrometer (IES) detector as a function of energy, pitch angle, spacecraft position, and time. However, no adiabatic invariants have been calculated for Cluster so far. In this paper we present a step-by-step guide to calculations of adiabatic invariants and conversion of the electron flux to phase space density (PSD) in these coordinates. The electron flux is measured in two RAPID/IES energy channels providing pitch angle distribution at energies 39.2-50.5 and 68.1-94.5 keV in nominal mode since 2004. A fitting method allows to expand the conversion of the differential fluxes to the range from 40 to 150 keV. Best data coverage for phase space density in adiabatic invariant coordinates can be obtained for values of second adiabatic invariant, K, similar to 10(2), and values of the first adiabatic invariant mu in the range approximate to 5-20 MeV/G. Furthermore, we describe the production of a new data product "LSTAR," equivalent to the third adiabatic invariant, available through the Cluster Science Archive for years 2001-2018 with 1-min resolution. The produced data set adds to the availability of observations in Earth's radiation belts region and can be used for long-term statistical purposes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1192 KW - L-Asterisk KW - magnetosphere KW - electrons KW - model Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-523915 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Smirnov, Artem G. A1 - Kronberg, Elena A. A1 - Daly, Patrick W. A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Kellerman, Adam C. T1 - Adiabatic Invariants Calculations for Cluster Mission: A Long-Term Product for Radiation Belts Studies JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics N2 - The Cluster mission has produced a large data set of electron flux measurements in the Earth's magnetosphere since its launch in late 2000. Electron fluxes are measured using Research with Adaptive Particle Imaging Detector (RAPID)/Imaging Electron Spectrometer (IES) detector as a function of energy, pitch angle, spacecraft position, and time. However, no adiabatic invariants have been calculated for Cluster so far. In this paper we present a step-by-step guide to calculations of adiabatic invariants and conversion of the electron flux to phase space density (PSD) in these coordinates. The electron flux is measured in two RAPID/IES energy channels providing pitch angle distribution at energies 39.2-50.5 and 68.1-94.5 keV in nominal mode since 2004. A fitting method allows to expand the conversion of the differential fluxes to the range from 40 to 150 keV. Best data coverage for phase space density in adiabatic invariant coordinates can be obtained for values of second adiabatic invariant, K, similar to 10(2), and values of the first adiabatic invariant mu in the range approximate to 5-20 MeV/G. Furthermore, we describe the production of a new data product "LSTAR," equivalent to the third adiabatic invariant, available through the Cluster Science Archive for years 2001-2018 with 1-min resolution. The produced data set adds to the availability of observations in Earth's radiation belts region and can be used for long-term statistical purposes. KW - L-Asterisk KW - magnetosphere KW - electrons KW - model Y1 - 2019 VL - 125 IS - 2 PB - John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CY - New Jersey ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zhelayskaya, Irina S. A1 - Vasile, Ruggero A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Stolle, Claudia A1 - Matzka, Jürgen T1 - Systematic Analysis of Machine Learning and Feature Selection Techniques for Prediction of the Kp Index JF - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - The Kp index is a measure of the midlatitude global geomagnetic activity and represents short-term magnetic variations driven by solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field. The Kp index is one of the most widely used indicators for space weather alerts and serves as input to various models, such as for the thermosphere and the radiation belts. It is therefore crucial to predict the Kp index accurately. Previous work in this area has mostly employed artificial neural networks to nowcast Kp, based their inferences on the recent history of Kp and on solar wind measurements at L1. In this study, we systematically test how different machine learning techniques perform on the task of nowcasting and forecasting Kp for prediction horizons of up to 12 hr. Additionally, we investigate different methods of machine learning and information theory for selecting the optimal inputs to a predictive model. We illustrate how these methods can be applied to select the most important inputs to a predictive model of Kp and to significantly reduce input dimensionality. We compare our best performing models based on a reduced set of optimal inputs with the existing models of Kp, using different test intervals, and show how this selection can affect model performance. KW - Kp index KW - Predictive models KW - Feature selection KW - Machine learning KW - Validation Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019SW002271 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 17 IS - 10 SP - 1461 EP - 1486 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER -